djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 26, 2016 17:19:21 GMT -5
might not. not would not. might not. personally, i was 90% sure he would get one. so, yeah, i thought there was a 10% chance he wouldn't. that also qualifies as "might not". in the same way as "i might not live until tomorrow".  |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 26, 2016 17:20:06 GMT -5
I really, really encourage people to read the actual emails that are linked to determine for themselves whether they show "collusion". To what end? Perception is reality. so the world is flat? |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 26, 2016 17:38:08 GMT -5
Besides-- as Trump understands very well: if you're explaining, you're losing. thanks for the explanation of why he doesn't explain things.  |
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jul 26, 2016 17:44:22 GMT -5
I really, really encourage people to read the actual emails that are linked to determine for themselves whether they show "collusion". To what end? ... I know but fighting the good fight matters to me. ![]() |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 26, 2016 23:14:20 GMT -5
I see Nate Silver / fivethirtyeight has made a dramatic move-- Trump had a 39% chance of winning to 58% chance in three days- link. um- no. that is not what he said. what he said is that he would have a 58% chance of winning if the election was held TODAY. that is called a "nowcast". it is pretty much meaningless, unless you can think of a way that the election IS going to be held today. the better predictions are the poll predictions and the "polls plus" which factor in demographics. Trump is still trailing both of those, the latter by a considerable degree. is the race tightening? yes. is this good for Trump? sure. is NS predicting he will win? no. |
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jul 27, 2016 7:49:00 GMT -5
I know but fighting the good fight matters to me. ![]() Are you fighting the good fight? It seems like you are fighting - very hard I might add - but in some cases it's not "the good fight" but more "your candidates reputation." I was encouraging people to read the actual emails. I have been talking about the actual content of those emails. Jill Stein is not a factor in this discussion so not sure why you bring her up. |
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jul 27, 2016 9:37:31 GMT -5
Besides-- as Trump understands very well: if you're explaining, you're losing. thanks for the explanation of why he doesn't explain things. Yep. It's actually very good advice for anyone-- first consideration is who is asking you to explain? If even the best explanation wouldn't persuade them, don't bother. |
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Jul 27, 2016 9:48:38 GMT -5
... He'll have to stand there and try to look cool and presidential, answer questions with complete sentences that make sense, prove that he knows what the shit he's taking about, and put forward a concrete plan of action. All of this, without stooping to the usual name calling/crude language that punctuated his primary debates. ... I'm not sure. It is nice to think that, but I am not sure that he will "have to". My husband agrees with you.
He thinks Trump could take a shit on stage and his supporters will vote for him.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Jul 27, 2016 9:53:45 GMT -5
thanks for the explanation of why he doesn't explain things. Yep. It's actually very good advice for anyone-- first consideration is who is asking you to explain? If even the best explanation wouldn't persuade them, don't bother. Is this related to his other piece of excellent business advice - hyperbolic truth, which is the same thing as lying?
Which explains his habit of dropping big turd like lies and then refusing to explain what he meant.
He was telling the hyperbolic truth and then refraining from explaining to people who won't believe his 'explanation.' Because his fans don't care if he shoots someone on the street in broad daylight.
Gotcha.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jul 27, 2016 9:54:41 GMT -5
I see Nate Silver / fivethirtyeight has made a dramatic move-- Trump had a 39% chance of winning to 58% chance in three days- link. um- no. that is not what he said. what he said is that he would have a 58% chance of winning if the election was held TODAY. that is called a "nowcast". it is pretty much meaningless, unless you can think of a way that the election IS going to be held today. the better predictions are the poll predictions and the "polls plus" which factor in demographics. Trump is still trailing both of those, the latter by a considerable degree. is the race tightening? yes. is this good for Trump? sure. is NS predicting he will win? no. Correct. The "nowcast" three days ago was 39%. |
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movingforward
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Post by movingforward on Jul 27, 2016 9:55:20 GMT -5
I'm not sure. It is nice to think that, but I am not sure that he will "have to". My husband agrees with you.
He thinks Trump could take a shit on stage and his supporters will vote for him.
I'm with your husband. I think the man could dress in clown suit while eating cotton candy and his voters wouldn't care. He may need to stick with the fear and the hate though. If he came out with any type of positive attitude and "real" solutions to today's problems they might abandon him. |
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Post by Opti on Jul 27, 2016 10:02:51 GMT -5
I read a story on Trump in Time Mag last week. He flat out told the interviewer that much of what he is saying now is just BS for effect, and of course he won't actually behave this way while in office. And yet Hillary is the lying liar? I don't believe anything Trump says unless I can verify its true elsewhere. Found this little gem when getting sucked into a URL purporting to give President and Presidential contender IQs.
www.quora.com/What-IQ-level-does-Donald-Trump-have-Is-he-really-a-politician-or-comedian
I’ve also noticed that even though he speaks at an elementary level, Trump appears to have difficulty articulating thoughts at a level of coherency that I’d expect of an individual whose IQ falls in the Very Superior range (above 130).
Some have claimed that his attendance at Wharton’s undergraduate program is proof of a “genius” IQ. In fact, Trump attended Fordham University in New York for his first two years of college, before transferring to Wharton’s undergraduate program (He’s not a Wharton MBA). I wonder why, with his parents resources and supposed genius level IQ, he would have attended Fordham coming out of high school? While Fordham is a good school, it isn’t in the top tier of selectivity. Average SAT is at about the 85th percentile, avg GPA 3.6. The 85th percentile of IQ is about 115–120 range (IQ is always expressed as a statistical range in professionally administered testing).
With a wealthy connected father, such a student could transfer to Wharton if he was a decent student after a couple of years at Fordham, but I do question why a genius with resources wouldn’t have attended a top tier university from the outset. Furthermore, there is no record of Trump having distinguished himself as a student at Wharton. Though he has stated that he graduated at the top of his class at Wharton, the record does not show Trump among those who graduated with distinction/honors.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Jul 27, 2016 10:09:19 GMT -5
I read a story on Trump in Time Mag last week. He flat out told the interviewer that much of what he is saying now is just BS for effect, and of course he won't actually behave this way while in office. And yet Hillary is the lying liar? He also implied that once he became president - 'winning' the ultimate prize' - he would step aside and let someone else do the shitty job of trying to actually - you know - work with Congress, draft new legislation, pick a cabinet, meet world leaders, etc.
Hard to believe he conned enough voters with all his 'hyperbolic truths' to get to where he is now. I can't decide if he's a genius or American voters are totally gullible/stupid that way.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 27, 2016 11:21:47 GMT -5
um- no. that is not what he said. what he said is that he would have a 58% chance of winning if the election was held TODAY. that is called a "nowcast". it is pretty much meaningless, unless you can think of a way that the election IS going to be held today. the better predictions are the poll predictions and the "polls plus" which factor in demographics. Trump is still trailing both of those, the latter by a considerable degree. is the race tightening? yes. is this good for Trump? sure. is NS predicting he will win? no. Correct. The "nowcast" three days ago was 39%. i never use nowcast. it is like predicting the winner of a horserace in the first turn. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 27, 2016 11:23:16 GMT -5
I know but fighting the good fight matters to me. ![]() Are you fighting the good fight? It seems like you are fighting - very hard I might add - but in some cases it's not "the good fight" but more "your candidates reputation." not really. what bills does is point out the outrageous lies and the omissions of fact. he does it no matter who is saying it. your own biases are showing. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 27, 2016 11:23:59 GMT -5
thanks for the explanation of why he doesn't explain things. Yep. It's actually very good advice for anyone-- first consideration is who is asking you to explain? If even the best explanation wouldn't persuade them, don't bother. i rarely consider an argument lost before it begins. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 27, 2016 11:26:09 GMT -5
I read a story on Trump in Time Mag last week. He flat out told the interviewer that much of what he is saying now is just BS for effect, and of course he won't actually behave this way while in office. And yet Hillary is the lying liar? i've noticed something else about Trump. he always promises that he will deliver excellence, and only delivers it about 10% of the time. |
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movingforward
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Post by movingforward on Jul 27, 2016 11:28:44 GMT -5
I read a story on Trump in Time Mag last week. He flat out told the interviewer that much of what he is saying now is just BS for effect, and of course he won't actually behave this way while in office. And yet Hillary is the lying liar? He also implied that once he became president - 'winning' the ultimate prize' - he would step aside and let someone else do the shitty job of trying to actually - you know - work with Congress, draft new legislation, pick a cabinet, meet world leaders, etc.
Hard to believe he conned enough voters with all his 'hyperbolic truths' to get to where he is now. I can't decide if he's a genius or American voters are totally gullible/stupid that way.
I'm going with the American voters being totally gullible. If Trump loses I can't imagine what that concession speech is going to be like. I wouldn't be surprised if he says that it was all a farce, that it was staged just so Hillary would win or that the votes are rigged. Who knows, but there is no way this man is going to admit to losing. His fat ass ego won't be able to go there. |
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Post by sesfw on Jul 27, 2016 12:22:53 GMT -5
If Trump loses
What will billary say when she loses?
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movingforward
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Post by movingforward on Jul 27, 2016 12:25:32 GMT -5
If Trump losesWhat will billary say when she loses? IF she loses then I am certain her speech will at least be somewhat dignified. I don't see that happening with Trump. |
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Post by billisonboard on Jul 27, 2016 18:55:36 GMT -5
People seem to like Trump because of the things he says, rather than in spite of. This author argues people gravitate to Trump because they feel like their freedom of speech is being stifled and his freewheeling style resonates. ... Hear that. He makes it cool to mock the handicapped again: |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2016 19:46:52 GMT -5
I read a story on Trump in Time Mag last week. He flat out told the interviewer that much of what he is saying now is just BS for effect, and of course he won't actually behave this way while in office. And yet Hillary is the lying liar? He also implied that once he became president - 'winning' the ultimate prize' - he would step aside and let someone else do the shitty job of trying to actually - you know - work with Congress, draft new legislation, pick a cabinet, meet world leaders, etc.
Hard to believe he conned enough voters with all his 'hyperbolic truths' to get to where he is now. I can't decide if he's a genius or American voters are totally gullible/stupid that way. Since "American voters" elected Obama... and GWB before him... I'll totally go with the bolded as the correct answer. |
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