The new polls on the Presidential race

[Deleted]

And Idaho had 900k registered voters in 2014. Cali had 17 million...

[billisonboard]

Jul 17, 2016 8:32:41 GMT -5 oped said:

What are you basing an 80% win in Idaho on? 

Poli Sci degree from Boise State University.

[billisonboard]

Jul 17, 2016 8:38:20 GMT -5 oped said:

And Idaho had 900k registered voters in 2014. Cali had 17 million...

Win California by one vote, lose Idaho by two and you are ahead in electoral votes and behind in popular vote.

[Deleted]

You think The Cali popular vote will be close? 

[billisonboard]

Jul 17, 2016 9:43:28 GMT -5 oped said:

You think The Cali popular vote will be close? 

I have no idea what will happen with this election. zibazinski offered an electoral win/popular vote loss for Clinton. I think that is a possibility. I was saying that if it happens, states like California will be close wins for Clinton. A larger margin in California would make Zib's suggeetion unlikely to happen. A large margin for Clinton could make the opposite happen. I feel it is too early to predict anything with hope of accuracy. 

[djAdvocate]

Jul 17, 2016 8:18:22 GMT -5 zibazinski said:

Trump isn't a politician. That is a huge plus right there.

that is like hiring a burger flipper to run production in your shop.  makes no sense at all.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 17, 2016 9:57:37 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Jul 17, 2016 9:43:28 GMT -5 oped said:

You think The Cali popular vote will be close? 

I have no idea what will happen with this election. zibazinski offered an electoral win/popular vote loss for Clinton. I think that is a possibility. I was saying that if it happens, states like California will be close wins for Clinton. A larger margin in California would make Zib's suggeetion unlikely to happen. A large margin for Clinton could make the opposite happen. I feel it is too early to predict anything with hope of accuracy. 

if you look at the electoral outcomes, Trump and Clinton did well in the same states (pretty much).  this would mean that the election would tend to follow national demographics, which is what we saw in 2012.  of course, this is all speculative, but that is how it SHOULD go.

[Deleted]

Jul 17, 2016 6:14:18 GMT -5 Opti said:

Jul 17, 2016 2:31:08 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

I agree. IF (and that's a big "if") Clinton wins, it will be by Electoral Votes. There's no way she can possibly win the "popular vote". Trump is going to LANDSLIDE states that he wins and Clinton is likely going to eek out victories in states that she wins.

I suppose you aren't factoring in the fact that one of the politicians more hated than Clinton is actually Trump?

If only he had picked Cruz as his running mate. The two most disliked politicians in the country banding together.

Since it's not true, why would I factor it in?

Trump is hated, I'll grant you that... but more than Clinton? BWAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA!!!!!!!

[Deleted]

Jul 17, 2016 11:48:26 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 17, 2016 8:18:22 GMT -5 zibazinski said:

Trump isn't a politician. That is a huge plus right there.

that is like hiring a burger flipper to run production in your shop.  makes no sense at all.

That depends on if every previous production manager has always screwed up the job, and it doesn't look like there are any better experienced production managers out there... wouldn't it?

[djAdvocate]

Jul 17, 2016 20:22:17 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

Jul 17, 2016 11:48:26 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

that is like hiring a burger flipper to run production in your shop.  makes no sense at all.

That depends on if every previous production manager has always screwed up the job, and it doesn't look like there are any better experienced production managers out there... wouldn't it?

sure, if you happen to agree with the premise.  i think that about ten of the last 11 managers were adequate, and several were quite good.

there is no way i can be so cynical as to vote for Trump, if that is what you are suggesting.

[billisonboard]

Nearly six in 10 Americans said they either "dislike" or "hate" Clinton, while slightly more — 63 percent — expressed negative opinions about Trump. www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-majority-americans-dislike-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-n578926

[Deleted]

I think it's better portrayed by this pair of graphics:


The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll was conducted online May 16 through May 22, 2016 among a national sample of 16,710 adults aged 18 and over, including 14,513 who say they are registered to vote. SOURCE





Note the #1 reason for why they plan to vote for their chosen candidate.

36% will vote Trump because he opposes Clinton, yet only 33% will vote Clinton because she opposes Trump.




*Unrelated to the hatred issue, but I also found the difference in people that believe in the respective "Leadership Ability" interesting.

[spartan7886]

Jul 17, 2016 20:40:15 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

Note the #1 reason for why they plan to vote for their chosen candidate.

36% will vote Trump because he opposes Clinton, yet only 33% will vote Clinton because she opposes Trump.

36% of 43% is less than 33% of 47%. Only 0.2% less, but still fewer total people in the first group.

[billisonboard]

Jul 17, 2016 20:40:15 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

I think it's better portrayed by this pair of graphics:
....

Of course you do. BWAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA!!!!!!!

[Opti]

Jul 17, 2016 20:40:15 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

I think it's better portrayed by this pair of graphics:


The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll was conducted online May 16 through May 22, 2016 among a national sample of 16,710 adults aged 18 and over, including 14,513 who say they are registered to vote. SOURCE





Note the #1 reason for why they plan to vote for their chosen candidate.

36% will vote Trump because he opposes Clinton, yet only 33% will vote Clinton because she opposes Trump.




*Unrelated to the hatred issue, but I also found the difference in people that believe in the respective "Leadership Ability" interesting.

Where's the URL?

Opposition to the other candidate does not equal hate the other candidate. It is just opposition. How related they are in this case would take a real well thought out survey not a all comers welcome Survey Monkey survey.

Again, you have to be careful what you read into answers to a question different than what you are trying to answer. For people who want Trump, they believe IMO that leadership means being strong, brash, and steam-rolling over others. Clinton supporters favor a different kind of leadership AND that may not be as high of a priority item to them than it is to Trump supporters who have said how much they dislike Obama's leadership style. So for them, it is a hot button issue compared to what Clinton supporter's care about.

[Value Buy]

His url is the word in blue, "source".

YOU COULD EASILY GOOGLE "nbcnewsSurvey monkey" and get it too.

[Deleted]

Jul 17, 2016 21:07:06 GMT -5 Opti said:

Jul 17, 2016 20:40:15 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

I think it's better portrayed by this pair of graphics:


The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll was conducted online May 16 through May 22, 2016 among a national sample of 16,710 adults aged 18 and over, including 14,513 who say they are registered to vote. SOURCE





Note the #1 reason for why they plan to vote for their chosen candidate.

36% will vote Trump because he opposes Clinton, yet only 33% will vote Clinton because she opposes Trump.




*Unrelated to the hatred issue, but I also found the difference in people that believe in the respective "Leadership Ability" interesting.

Where's the URL?

Opposition to the other candidate does not equal hate the other candidate. It is just opposition. How related they are in this case would take a real well thought out survey not a all comers welcome Survey Monkey survey.

Again, you have to be careful what you read into answers to a question different than what you are trying to answer. For people who want Trump, they believe IMO that leadership means being strong, brash, and steam-rolling over others. Clinton supporters favor a different kind of leadership AND that may not be as high of a priority item to them than it is to Trump supporters who have said how much they dislike Obama's leadership style. So for them, it is a hot button issue compared to what Clinton supporter's care about.

Click the word "SOURCE" in my original post (or your quote of it, or my quote of your quote... I bolded it for you in this quote)

As to the underlined... that goes for all the other reasons that they would vote Trump instead of Clinton. Hatred is why someone would vote based on "opposes {other candidate}"

You see it differently... and that's cool. This is my take on it as well as factoring in personally experienced anecdotal evidence (how people I know and talk to DESPISE Clinton but simply DISLIKE Trump).

Either way, you have to agree that virtually no one really LIKES either of them.

[Deleted]

Jul 17, 2016 20:53:45 GMT -5 spartan7886 said:

Jul 17, 2016 20:40:15 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

Note the #1 reason for why they plan to vote for their chosen candidate.

36% will vote Trump because he opposes Clinton, yet only 33% will vote Clinton because she opposes Trump.

36% of 43% is less than 33% of 47%. Only 0.2% less, but still fewer total people in the first group.

Where do you get "43%" and "47%"?

[Value Buy]

Jul 17, 2016 22:03:17 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

Jul 17, 2016 20:53:45 GMT -5 spartan7886 said:

36% of 43% is less than 33% of 47%. Only 0.2% less, but still fewer total people in the first group.

Where do you get "43%" and "47%"?

fyi, you do realize this is from mid May polling.

[Deleted]

Jul 17, 2016 22:08:24 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Jul 17, 2016 22:03:17 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

Where do you get "43%" and "47%"?

fyi, you do realize this is from mid May polling.

Is that where the "43%" and "47%" are from? Source please...

[Opti]

Jul 17, 2016 22:00:47 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

Jul 17, 2016 21:07:06 GMT -5 Opti said:

Where's the URL?

Opposition to the other candidate does not equal hate the other candidate. It is just opposition. How related they are in this case would take a real well thought out survey not a all comers welcome Survey Monkey survey.

Again, you have to be careful what you read into answers to a question different than what you are trying to answer. For people who want Trump, they believe IMO that leadership means being strong, brash, and steam-rolling over others. Clinton supporters favor a different kind of leadership AND that may not be as high of a priority item to them than it is to Trump supporters who have said how much they dislike Obama's leadership style. So for them, it is a hot button issue compared to what Clinton supporter's care about.

Click the word "SOURCE" in my original post (or your quote of it, or my quote of your quote... I bolded it for you in this quote)

As to the underlined... that goes for all the other reasons that they would vote Trump instead of Clinton. Hatred is why someone would vote based on "opposes {other candidate}"

You see it differently... and that's cool. This is my take on it as well as factoring in personally experienced anecdotal evidence (how people I know and talk to DESPISE Clinton but simply DISLIKE Trump).

Either way, you have to agree that virtually no one really LIKES either of them.

I will speak for myself only, but when I oppose someone, I do so generally because I disagree with their approach or policies. I personally work on limiting what I hate. Hate IMO is bad for the soul and the mind.

Your mileage obviously is different, but if I don't agree with you, it is likely others do not as well. HTH.

[Deleted]

Jul 17, 2016 23:13:37 GMT -5 Opti said:

Jul 17, 2016 22:00:47 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

Click the word "SOURCE" in my original post (or your quote of it, or my quote of your quote... I bolded it for you in this quote)

As to the underlined... that goes for all the other reasons that they would vote Trump instead of Clinton. Hatred is why someone would vote based on "opposes {other candidate}"

You see it differently... and that's cool. This is my take on it as well as factoring in personally experienced anecdotal evidence (how people I know and talk to DESPISE Clinton but simply DISLIKE Trump).

Either way, you have to agree that virtually no one really LIKES either of them.

I will speak for myself only, but when I oppose someone, I do so generally because I disagree with their approach or policies. I personally work on limiting what I hate. Hate IMO is bad for the soul and the mind.

Your mileage obviously is different, but if I don't agree with you, it is likely others do not as well. HTH.

But... when you oppose someone wouldn't you usually say WHY? Not just "I oppose them"?

The graphic I put up had various reasons other that JUST "oppose {other candidate}". The ones that selected reasons other than "oppose {other candidate}" had a reason other than their dislike of the opposing candidate. HTH.

[Opti]

Jul 17, 2016 23:40:20 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

Jul 17, 2016 23:13:37 GMT -5 Opti said:

I will speak for myself only, but when I oppose someone, I do so generally because I disagree with their approach or policies. I personally work on limiting what I hate. Hate IMO is bad for the soul and the mind.

Your mileage obviously is different, but if I don't agree with you, it is likely others do not as well. HTH.

But... when you oppose someone wouldn't you usually say WHY? Not just "I oppose them"?

The graphic I put up had various reasons other that JUST "oppose {other candidate}". The ones that selected reasons other than "oppose {other candidate}" had a reason other than their dislike of the opposing candidate. HTH.

I don't know how they set up this survey, and your link does not say either. I think though they were separating not wanting the other candidate as a primary reason vs. positive reasons, i.e. you like the candidates policy positions or style.

Now if I developed a poll on support for Trump it would include things like primary reason -

A) the Wall

B) deportation and refusal of entry to Muslims

C) Trump tells it like it is

D) I've always hated Clinton

etc.

[billisonboard]

[Deleted]

Jul 17, 2016 23:45:42 GMT -5 Opti said:

Jul 17, 2016 23:40:20 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

But... when you oppose someone wouldn't you usually say WHY? Not just "I oppose them"?

The graphic I put up had various reasons other that JUST "oppose {other candidate}". The ones that selected reasons other than "oppose {other candidate}" had a reason other than their dislike of the opposing candidate. HTH.

I don't know how they set up this survey, and your link does not say either. I think though they were separating not wanting the other candidate as a primary reason vs. positive reasons, i.e. you like the candidates policy positions or style.

Now if I developed a poll on support for Trump it would include things like primary reason -

A) the Wall

B) deportation and refusal of entry to Muslims

C) Trump tells it like it is

D) I've always hated Clinton

etc.

This is just a guess on my part but...

I'd guess that they set it up something like this:

I support
[ ] Trump
[ ] Clinton

Because of their
[ ] opposition to the other candidate
[ ] positions on issues
[ ] leadership ability
[ ] being the party nominee
[ ] experience



But that's just how I would have set up a poll that came up with those answers. That doesn't mean that's how THEY did it.

[spartan7886]

Jul 17, 2016 22:03:17 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

Jul 17, 2016 20:53:45 GMT -5 spartan7886 said:

36% of 43% is less than 33% of 47%. Only 0.2% less, but still fewer total people in the first group.

Where do you get "43%" and "47%"?

The first graphic in your link shows Clinton leading Trump 47% to 43%. I then assumed that since your graphs are marked "Reason for **** Support" that each one only includes that particular candidate's supporters.

[happyhoix]

In MSN Morning Joe this AM Joe and Mika were in Cleveland with a group of (I assume) Clevelanders sitting behind them.

When they asked the audience to applaud if they would vote for Trump, only one guy did. When asked if anyone would vote for Hillary, a smattering of people applauded.

I still can't figure out how these two made it to the tops of their respective tickets. (Well, I can with Hillary, because so few democrats came out against her in the primary. But Trump?)

The biggest crowd reaction came when Trump's campaign manager was being interviewed and, when asked why there were so few GOP big names speaking at the convention, including Kaisch (gov of Ohio), the campaign manager stated that Kaisch 'would be sorry' that he failed to come out in support of Trump. This inspired a round of booing from the audience.

Not a  lot of love in Cleveland this AM LOL.

[Value Buy]

Jul 18, 2016 7:36:09 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

In MSN Morning Joe this AM Joe and Mika were in Cleveland with a group of (I assume) Clevelanders sitting behind them.

When they asked the audience to applaud if they would vote for Trump, only one guy did. When asked if anyone would vote for Hillary, a smattering of people applauded.

I still can't figure out how these two made it to the tops of their respective tickets. (Well, I can with Hillary, because so few democrats came out against her in the primary. But Trump?)

The biggest crowd reaction came when Trump's campaign manager was being interviewed and, when asked why there were so few GOP big names speaking at the convention, including Kaisch (gov of Ohio), the campaign manager stated that Kaisch 'would be sorry' that he failed to come out in support of Trump. This inspired a round of booing from the audience.

Not a  lot of love in Cleveland this AM LOL.

A live broadcast from a democratic bar in the heart of the city, where the bar has advertised about Joe and Mika coming today.
The better question is, are there any local Republicans in the audience, and please raise your hand.
If a tree falls in the forest, and no one is there, does it make any noise?

Of course it does, but if you are not there, you would not know it fell.

[djAdvocate]

Cleveland, like most cities, is pretty liberal.  it represents Ohio about as well as Houston represents Texas.

[happyhoix]

Jul 18, 2016 16:08:47 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Jul 18, 2016 7:36:09 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

In MSN Morning Joe this AM Joe and Mika were in Cleveland with a group of (I assume) Clevelanders sitting behind them.

When they asked the audience to applaud if they would vote for Trump, only one guy did. When asked if anyone would vote for Hillary, a smattering of people applauded.

I still can't figure out how these two made it to the tops of their respective tickets. (Well, I can with Hillary, because so few democrats came out against her in the primary. But Trump?)

The biggest crowd reaction came when Trump's campaign manager was being interviewed and, when asked why there were so few GOP big names speaking at the convention, including Kaisch (gov of Ohio), the campaign manager stated that Kaisch 'would be sorry' that he failed to come out in support of Trump. This inspired a round of booing from the audience.

Not a  lot of love in Cleveland this AM LOL.

A live broadcast from a democratic bar in the heart of the city, where the bar has advertised about Joe and Mika coming today.
The better question is, are there any local Republicans in the audience, and please raise your hand.
If a tree falls in the forest, and no one is there, does it make any noise?

Of course it does, but if you are not there, you would not know it fell.

You missed my comment about the response Hillary got, so I bolded it for you. My point was, no one at the bar was thrilled about either candidate.

However, there did seem to be a lot of love for their governor, Kasich, who I believe is a republican, correct? So your supposition that this was just a bar full of liberal dems is maybe not spot on.

I would say, more correctly, this was a bar full of disgruntled Americans of all persuasions.