How Donold Trump will overthrow the 2024 Election

[thyme4change]

Sept 18, 2024 20:33:03 GMT -5 teen persuasion said:

Sept 18, 2024 19:48:15 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

I saw a poll yesterday that said 40% of GOP voters thought this election would be rigged, and 15% of them were willing to fight to overturn the election if Trump gets cheated again. 

That sounds like a lot, but I figure of that 15%, I’m guessing half will be too old/out of shape to actually ‘fight’ - so hopefully the national guard can squash the remaining feisty 7%. 

Lets do some math!
Google tells me about 48% of people in the US are registered to vote. Actual number of voters is likely lower, but we'll start with that.

Republicans are a subset of them; usually polls show Rep/Dem/Ind  as roughly one third each, so one third of 48% is 16%.

The 40% of Republicans voters would thus be 6.4%.

Not entirely clear how to parse the last subdivision, but if it is 15% of the 40% then we are talking about .96%, that is, less than 1%. (If it instead means 15% of GOP voters, then it is 2.4%).

Still millions of people - and if they are very noisy, things get spread around.

I’m not even sure there needs to be violence like J6 - just the continued erosion of faith in the system will not be good for America.

[Tiny]

This is interesting:

Trump Electoral-Vote Heist Underway in Nebraska

www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-electoral-vote-heist-underway-in-nebraska/ar-AA1qRCr3?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=559e82bed2a14f6691b70bce1c6771e3&ei=14

With the major-party presidential candidates in close battles in a sparse landscape of battleground states, every electoral vote matters. There are scenarios where either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins 269 or 270 electoral votes. Part of the underlying picture is that each of them has been expected to snag a single Electoral College vote from one of the two states (Maine and Nebraska) that allocate them by congressional district. Biden won the Omaha-based Second Congressional District of Nebraska in 2020, when Trump won the largely rural Second Congressional District of Maine. Polls are showing the same outcome is likely this year.

More than likely, the electoral-vote robbers chose to postpone their gambit until it was too late for Democrats to neutralize the theft in Maine.

,
It appears the effort to nail down the votes needed to pull off the Nebraska heist will come down to a very small handful of state senators. All sorts of horse-trading could ensue. But there are good odds Republicans will “rig” the Electoral College by one vote, and unless a creative lawsuit is in the offing, no one will be able to do anything about it.

Here's info on why Maine and Nebraska are "special" when it comes to electoral votes:
www.270towin.com/content/split-electoral-votes-maine-and-nebraska/


And here's more about what is happening:
www.bangordailynews.com/2024/09/19/politics/elections/maine-couldnt-fight-late-electoral-college-play-nebraska-republicans/

[djAdvocate]

hopefully, Harris will win by over 100 EV.
i think that would mostly end this nonsense, if she does.

[thyme4change]

The AZ republicans are tearing each other apart right now. They pushed and pushed to get this ‘proof of citizenship’ initiative through the Supreme Court, and when they successfully did that, the Republicans running the elections said that there are 98,000 people who now need to prove their citizenship. Upon finding out those are the people who got driver’s licenses in AZ before 1996, and 40% of them are registered Republicans vs 27% registered Democrats - they want everyone to have the full ballot - without proof. Meanwhile, the people running the election think we should follow that law and have all those people submit proof.

Couldn’t happen to a more deserving pack of alarmists.

My bold prediction - there will be a bunch of racism at the polls.


Arizona GOP wants full ballots for 97K voters affected by MVD record ‘error’

www.azfamily.com/2024/09/18/arizona-gop-wants-full-ballots-97k-voters-affected-by-mvd-record-error/

PHOENIX (AZFamily) — Leaders with the Arizona GOP want the more than 97,000 voters impacted by what state officials are calling an “administrative error” to be given a full ballot, with statewide and local races, as the state secretary of state is urging.

Republican legislative leaders, including state Sen. Warren Peterson and state House Speaker Ben Toma, filed a legal brief, also known as an “amicus brief,” asking the Arizona Supreme Court to grant the impacted voters complete access to their ballots in the upcoming November election.

“We will not stand by as voters are disenfranchised, especially so close to an election,” party chair Gina Swoboda said in a prepared statement. “Rushing to disenfranchise voters now would not only be illegal but would severely undermine confidence in our elections.”

The viewpoint differs from the opinion of Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer, also a Republican, who said that impacted voters should be moved to federal-only status “unless and until the voters provide DPOC”—or documentary proof of citizenship.

The legal brief argues that county recorders have no statutory authority to bar voters from full ballot access to federal-only status, claiming that the recorder only has “powers expressly or impliedly delegated to him by the state constitution or statues.”

[djAdvocate]

for the most part, these efforts have been ineffective. the clearest problems are in Georgia.

i could be more worried. but the fact that everyone is on to this bullshit is helpful. it is right out in the open that they are trying to cheat and steal the election. that SHOULD drive moderate and liberal turnout.

[Tiny]

trump/GOP starting to get their ducks in a row for the Big Steal:

Georgia election board requires ballots be hand-counted despite warning from key GOP state officials
www.cnn.com/2024/09/20/politics/georgia-republican-election-rules-hand-count/index.html

Allies of former President Donald Trump who control the Georgia State Election Board approved a controversial new rule Friday requiring counties to hand-count the number of ballots cast at polling places on Election Day, despite bipartisan objections from election officials and poll workers.

The vote was 3-2, with the three Trump allies supporting the move, and a Democratic and independent GOP-appointed member of the board strongly opposing it, calling it an added step that could delay the results of the presidential election in the battleground state.

[djAdvocate]

another reason why Harris has to win by over 100EV. /\

[bean29]

Do you think it is actually possible for Harris to win by over 100 EV?

[tbop77]

Personally, I think we are screwed either way.
If Harris wins, no telling what these crazies have planned.  They have had more time to plan attacks than they did in 2020 and we know how the attack on the Capitol went.
If Trump wins, no telling what these crazies have planned.  They have planned and will be more organized than they were in 2016.  

Wish I could hibernate till February 2025!  

[happyhoix]

Sept 21, 2024 9:54:37 GMT -5 tbop77 said:

Personally, I think we are screwed either way.
If Harris wins, no telling what these crazies have planned.  They have had more time to plan attacks than they did in 2020 and we know how the attack on the Capitol went.
If Trump wins, no telling what these crazies have planned.  They have planned and will be more organized than they were in 2016.  

Wish I could hibernate till February 2025!  

Yeah I’m sure they have a bunch of shady legal moves they will launch. Like in Georgia they just passed a requirement that all the votes will be hand counted as a way to drag out the process.

My only hopeful thoughts are that Trump is going to only bring in sycophants to his admin, who will be incompetent and gutless, or completely off the wall like Elon Musk. My hope is they are so focused on trying to curry favor from Trump and fighting with each other that they can’t get much done. Then we have to pray there is no sudden international crisis or another pandemic, nothing that would require a competent president to manage.

Or DH and I can be ex pats for a while. I really like Canada.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 21, 2024 9:30:52 GMT -5 bean29 said:

Do you think it is actually possible for Harris to win by over 100 EV?

yes.  i really do.  she needs to win the election by about 5%.  if i were to predict, i would say she wins by 4%, as of now.  

100EV is not that much of a margin.  it is just enough to stop the GOP from stealing the election.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 21, 2024 9:54:37 GMT -5 tbop77 said:

Personally, I think we are screwed either way.
If Harris wins, no telling what these crazies have planned.  
Wish I could hibernate till February 2025!  

if she loses, you will have a LOT more to worry about.
the power of the Imperial Trump presidency will rule.
there is no limit to that awfulness.

[billisonboard]

Sept 21, 2024 14:04:56 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 21, 2024 9:30:52 GMT -5 bean29 said:

Do you think it is actually possible for Harris to win by over 100 EV?

yes.  i really do.  she needs to win the election by about 5%.  if i were to predict, i would say she wins by 4%, as of now.  

100EV is not that much of a margin.  it is just enough to stop the GOP from stealing the election.

In 2016, Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1% and lost the Electoral College by 77 votes. At this link it indicates 102 of Trump's Electoral votes were won in states with a margin of 0-5% and 76 with a margin of 5-10%. Those numbers suggest to me that Harris could win with a 5% margin in popular vote, but not that it would provide a 100 vote margin.

[tallguy]

Sept 21, 2024 16:51:14 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Sept 21, 2024 14:04:56 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

yes.  i really do.  she needs to win the election by about 5%.  if i were to predict, i would say she wins by 4%, as of now.  

100EV is not that much of a margin.  it is just enough to stop the GOP from stealing the election.

In 2016, Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1% and lost the Electoral College by 77 votes. At this link it indicates 102 of Trump's Electoral votes were won in states with a margin of 0-5% and 76 with a margin of 5-10%. Those numbers suggest to me that Harris could win with a 5% margin in popular vote, but not that it would provide a 100 vote margin.

This made me curious, so I looked at 2020.  Biden won the popular vote by less than 5% and won by 74 Electoral College votes.  The closest state for Trump was North Carolina, which he won 49.9% to 48.6%.  If 38,000 votes had switched from Trump to Biden, the popular vote margin would have still been under 5%.  The electoral vote margin would have been 104 EV.  

[djAdvocate]

having said all of that, the analysis is really not that difficult. Harris would have to be 2.2% higher than she is right now to be at +5%. there is NO state on my tossup list on the other thread that is wider than that spread. in other words, assuming that the 2.2% was equally proportioned across the electorate, she would win every single swing state listed. in addition, Florida, Alaska and Iowa would be in play. i doubt she would win any of them, but THEY would be in my tossup column (and many of the tossups would not be).

in other words, i think she could win by MUCH MORE THAN 100EV if she wins by 5%. but i am being conservative.

the question that some of you are asking is probably "how hard would it be for Harris to go 2% higher than she is now". you will find a wide spectrum of opinion on this. i think the odds are "good", personally.

if people just evaluate the basic facts, their interests are not served at all by voting for Trump, imo. they just need to see him for what he is, which is a threat to the republic. you can say what you will about Harris, but she is an institutionalist. she will not declare herself queen.

[djAdvocate]

i want to add one more thing.
the media loves drama.
they are running all these scenarios of a tie or a 270-268 win for either candidate. but let's be clear. those are in the less than 10% probability column (538 thinks they are in the less than 1% probability, but again, i am being conservative).

the LIKELY outcome is that Harris wins by around 70EV. it is not crack smoking crazy to assume she wins ONE MORE STATE, particularly since that ONE STATE right now is NC. she is behind by less than 1% NC. even a 0.5% swing would probably bring that state home for her.

[billisonboard]

Sept 21, 2024 17:22:16 GMT -5 tallguy said:

Sept 21, 2024 16:51:14 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

In 2016, Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1% and lost the Electoral College by 77 votes. At this link it indicates 102 of Trump's Electoral votes were won in states with a margin of 0-5% and 76 with a margin of 5-10%. Those numbers suggest to me that Harris could win with a 5% margin in popular vote, but not that it would provide a 100 vote margin.

This made me curious, so I looked at 2020.  Biden won the popular vote by less than 5% and won by 74 Electoral College votes.  The closest state for Trump was North Carolina, which he won 49.9% to 48.6%.  If 38,000 votes had switched from Trump to Biden, the popular vote margin would have still been under 5%.  The electoral vote margin would have been 104 EV.  

True. Hopefully 2024 is more like 2020 than 2016.

[tallguy]

Sept 21, 2024 18:40:03 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Sept 21, 2024 17:22:16 GMT -5 tallguy said:

This made me curious, so I looked at 2020.  Biden won the popular vote by less than 5% and won by 74 Electoral College votes.  The closest state for Trump was North Carolina, which he won 49.9% to 48.6%.  If 38,000 votes had switched from Trump to Biden, the popular vote margin would have still been under 5%.  The electoral vote margin would have been 104 EV.  

True. Hopefully 2024 is more like 2020 than 2016.

From your keyboard to Everyone-not-Trump's ears.  

[djAdvocate]

Sept 21, 2024 18:42:28 GMT -5 tallguy said:

Sept 21, 2024 18:40:03 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

True. Hopefully 2024 is more like 2020 than 2016.

From your keyboard to Everyone-not-Trump's ears.  

i don't think that is certain, but i think it is LIKELY.

i will gild the Lilly a bit, since i can.   

i think it is a fair assumption that there is an underlying trend in these three elections that does NOT favor Trump.  in other words, i SUSPECT he will do worse this time than last time.  this is the same prediction i would have made in 2021.  but as you both put it, essentially, "we will see".

[tallguy]

I am actually beginning to become more confident.  Signs are that Arizona will be going for Harris.  She is gaining in polls, GOP statewide candidates are falling back, and abortion rights are on the ballot.  Just need to hold Pennsylvania and Michigan. Anything else is a bonus. 

Trump and the GOP seem intent on throwing away North Carolina. Georgia too, maybe, despite the state-level shenanigans. Abortion rights are also on the ballot in Florida, but I can't even guess how the supermajority requirement will affect turnout.  Will still probably end up red.  Either way, 270 is enough.  370 is a lot better, but 270 is enough.

[happyhoix]

Sept 21, 2024 19:47:03 GMT -5 tallguy said:

I am actually beginning to become more confident.  Signs are that Arizona will be going for Harris.  She is gaining in polls, GOP statewide candidates are falling back, and abortion rights are on the ballot.  Just need to hold Pennsylvania and Michigan. Anything else is a bonus. 

Trump and the GOP seem intent on throwing away North Carolina. Georgia too, maybe, despite the state-level shenanigans. Abortion rights are also on the ballot in Florida, but I can't even guess how the supermajority requirement will affect turnout.  Will still probably end up red.  Either way, 270 is enough.  370 is a lot better, but 270 is enough.

Robinson, the black guy running for NC governor who likes Nazis and wouldn’t mind owning some slaves, was a Trump pick. Once again he backed a loser. That’s going to drag down the GOP vote, hopefully.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 21, 2024 19:47:03 GMT -5 tallguy said:

I am actually beginning to become more confident.  Signs are that Arizona will be going for Harris.  She is gaining in polls, GOP statewide candidates are falling back, and abortion rights are on the ballot.  Just need to hold Pennsylvania and Michigan. Anything else is a bonus. 

Trump and the GOP seem intent on throwing away North Carolina. Georgia too, maybe, despite the state-level shenanigans. Abortion rights are also on the ballot in Florida, but I can't even guess how the supermajority requirement will affect turnout.  Will still probably end up red.  Either way, 270 is enough.  370 is a lot better, but 270 is enough.

i think 270 is a disaster.  they will pull all kinds of shit to disrupt that transition.

but if you disagree, i would love to hear it.

edit: oh, and it is 320, btw.  i don't think 370 is even possible at this point, given the amount of time it would take to move the polls that much.

[tallguy]

Sept 21, 2024 22:51:17 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 21, 2024 19:47:03 GMT -5 tallguy said:

I am actually beginning to become more confident.  Signs are that Arizona will be going for Harris.  She is gaining in polls, GOP statewide candidates are falling back, and abortion rights are on the ballot.  Just need to hold Pennsylvania and Michigan. Anything else is a bonus. 

Trump and the GOP seem intent on throwing away North Carolina. Georgia too, maybe, despite the state-level shenanigans. Abortion rights are also on the ballot in Florida, but I can't even guess how the supermajority requirement will affect turnout.  Will still probably end up red.  Either way, 270 is enough.  370 is a lot better, but 270 is enough.

i think 270 is a disaster.  they will pull all kinds of shit to disrupt that transition.

but if you disagree, i would love to hear it.

edit: oh, and it is 320, btw.  i don't think 370 is even possible at this point, given the amount of time it would take to move the polls that much.

I actually do know how numbers work.  A 100-vote margin would be 319-219.  I'm not predicting anything.  I'm just saying, "The higher the better", but 270 is still enough to win no matter what Republicans try and do to corrupt the process.  They're not in charge, and I don't think they would be able to persuade the President-elect to disregard the law and not certify the vote.  Particularly after the law was clarified.

[billisonboard]

Faithless electors could be an interesting factor in a very close electoral college count.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 21, 2024 23:20:56 GMT -5 tallguy said:

Sept 21, 2024 22:51:17 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i think 270 is a disaster.  they will pull all kinds of shit to disrupt that transition.

but if you disagree, i would love to hear it.

edit: oh, and it is 320, btw.  i don't think 370 is even possible at this point, given the amount of time it would take to move the polls that much.

I actually do know how numbers work.  A 100-vote margin would be 319-219.  I'm not predicting anything.  I'm just saying, "The higher the better", but 270 is still enough to win no matter what Republicans try and do to corrupt the process.  They're not in charge, and I don't think they would be able to persuade the President-elect to disregard the law and not certify the vote.  Particularly after the law was clarified.

ok.  i am tired and grumpy, so i will say "whatever" to your 370 remark.  i didn't think we were talking about two different things.  i still contend that 370 is outside the realm of possibility.  

and my comment had nothing to do with the VP.  it has to do with state fuckery.  and there is plenty that they can and will try.  GA is probably the worst one, but there will be others.

[tallguy]

Sept 21, 2024 23:56:15 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 21, 2024 23:20:56 GMT -5 tallguy said:

I actually do know how numbers work.  A 100-vote margin would be 319-219.  I'm not predicting anything.  I'm just saying, "The higher the better", but 270 is still enough to win no matter what Republicans try and do to corrupt the process.  They're not in charge, and I don't think they would be able to persuade the President-elect to disregard the law and not certify the vote.  Particularly after the law was clarified.

ok.  i am tired and grumpy, so i will say "whatever" to your 370 remark.  i didn't think we were talking about two different things.  i still contend that 370 is outside the realm of possibility.  

and my comment had nothing to do with the VP.  it has to do with state fuckery.  and there is plenty that they can and will try.  GA is probably the worst one, but there will be others.

Well, I'd like to see a "reverse rapture" and have all Trump supporters vanish from the earth before the election.  Let it be 538-0.  That would be a LOT better than any other number.

That's not in the realm of possibility either, but it would be better.  370 was just a number.  It had "70" on the end so was easy to choose.  

[scgal]

Sept 20, 2024 15:37:29 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

for the most part, these efforts have been ineffective. the clearest problems are in Georgia.

i could be more worried. but the fact that everyone is on to this bullshit is helpful. it is right out in the open that they are trying to cheat and steal the election. that SHOULD drive moderate and liberal turnout.

The thing is what is happening in Nebraska is not a heist, cheating or stealing. This is legal and such if it is legal it can not be stealing. That is one of the things I dislike about the Trump campaign if it does not benefit him it must be stealing. I don't think Harris will win with 100 electoral votes actually I think there is a very good chance of her losing because of electoral votes. 

[billisonboard]

Sept 22, 2024 6:00:23 GMT -5 scgal said:

Sept 20, 2024 15:37:29 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

for the most part, these efforts have been ineffective. the clearest problems are in Georgia.

i could be more worried. but the fact that everyone is on to this bullshit is helpful. it is right out in the open that they are trying to cheat and steal the election. that SHOULD drive moderate and liberal turnout.

The thing is what is happening in Nebraska is not a heist, cheating or stealing. This is legal and such if it is legal it can not be stealing. That is one of the things I dislike about the Trump campaign if it does not benefit him it must be stealing. I don't think Harris will win with 100 electoral votes actually I think there is a very good chance of her losing because of electoral votes. 

Yes, you are correct that people aren't using the proper wording for the partisan maneuvering with is being considered in Nebraska. Is it the most important factor to consider regarding the situation? I don't think so. Calling them out for their partisan bullshit needs to be done, Hopefully it will sway at least a few voters away from voting for the Republicans.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 22, 2024 6:00:23 GMT -5 scgal said:

Sept 20, 2024 15:37:29 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

for the most part, these efforts have been ineffective. the clearest problems are in Georgia.

i could be more worried. but the fact that everyone is on to this bullshit is helpful. it is right out in the open that they are trying to cheat and steal the election. that SHOULD drive moderate and liberal turnout.

The thing is what is happening in Nebraska is not a heist, cheating or stealing. This is legal and such if it is legal it can not be stealing. That is one of the things I dislike about the Trump campaign if it does not benefit him it must be stealing. I don't think Harris will win with 100 electoral votes actually I think there is a very good chance of her losing because of electoral votes. 

i would agree with you if they had done it 30 days ago.

the fact that they waited until Maine could NOT retaliate is theft, i think.  they KNEW that they would lose more votes in Maine than they would gain in NE if they did this 30 days ago, so they waited.  this is not the mere functioning of a democratic system, scgal.  this is gaming the system to the advantage of the GOP.

i would also point out that Democrats never do this kind of thing.  and again, i think it is much to their detriment.

[scgal]

Sept 22, 2024 12:57:20 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 22, 2024 6:00:23 GMT -5 scgal said:

The thing is what is happening in Nebraska is not a heist, cheating or stealing. This is legal and such if it is legal it can not be stealing. That is one of the things I dislike about the Trump campaign if it does not benefit him it must be stealing. I don't think Harris will win with 100 electoral votes actually I think there is a very good chance of her losing because of electoral votes. 

i would agree with you if they had done it 30 days ago.

the fact that they waited until Maine could NOT retaliate is theft, i think.  they KNEW that they would lose more votes in Maine than they would gain in NE if they did this 30 days ago, so they waited.  this is not the mere functioning of a democratic system, scgal .  this is gaming the system to the advantage of the GOP.

i would also point out that Democrats never do this kind of thing.  and again, i think it is much to their detriment.

Is it illegal?