billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 15, 2021 13:23:44 GMT -5
Trump lost them every branch. The Republican Party continues to hemorrhage. The only way they can ‘win’ is by cheating and or destroying the very republic. His arguments and rhetoric aren’t honest and shouldn’t be taken as such. A win for him is Trump not releasing what he knows for another day. Like the judicial ? Gained 12 seats in the house ? Mid terms are coming. I think that there is a good chance that minority rule will dominate legislatively over the next decade with increasing violence from both those attempting to maintain and overcome it. The Supreme Court will play a major role. Assuming no deaths/retirements, it will come down to Chief Justice Roberts' ability to moderate the conservative majority on the court. If they do move quickly to overturn precedents, it will get particularly ugly. Another critical issue will be the Republican 2024 Presidential nominee. If they pick a decent human being, they stand a good chance to win in the Electoral College (again losing the popular vote).
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 15, 2021 16:00:26 GMT -5
Like the judicial ? Gained 12 seats in the house ? Mid terms are coming. I think that there is a good chance that minority rule will dominate legislatively over the next decade with increasing violence from both those attempting to maintain and overcome it. The Supreme Court will play a major role. Assuming no deaths/retirements, it will come down to Chief Justice Roberts' ability to moderate the conservative majority on the court. If they do move quickly to overturn precedents, it will get particularly ugly. Another critical issue will be the Republican 2024 Presidential nominee. If they pick a decent human being, they stand a good chance to win in the Electoral College (again losing the popular vote). it is very difficult to defeat an incumbent president.
it is WHY the 2020 race was as close as it was. incumbency probably garners you 5% of the electorate, or something like that. you have to do a real shit job to get dumped at 4 years.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Feb 15, 2021 17:15:54 GMT -5
I think that there is a good chance that minority rule will dominate legislatively over the next decade with increasing violence from both those attempting to maintain and overcome it. The Supreme Court will play a major role. Assuming no deaths/retirements, it will come down to Chief Justice Roberts' ability to moderate the conservative majority on the court. If they do move quickly to overturn precedents, it will get particularly ugly. Another critical issue will be the Republican 2024 Presidential nominee. If they pick a decent human being, they stand a good chance to win in the Electoral College (again losing the popular vote). it is very difficult to defeat an incumbent president.
it is WHY the 2020 race was as close as it was. incumbency probably garners you 5% of the electorate, or something like that. you have to do a real shit job to get dumped at 4 years.
Do you think Biden will run in 2024? at 82?
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oped
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Post by oped on Feb 15, 2021 17:18:44 GMT -5
Probably not. Its probably why his schedule shows he and Kamala working more closely/regularly together than generally happens.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Feb 15, 2021 17:30:30 GMT -5
11 Repo-Con Senators that voted for conviction of Clinton for lying about a BJ voted to acquit Trump for fomenting an insurrection that assaulted our Constitution, hunted elected officials inside our Capitol and caused death and injury to 140 police officers.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2021 19:14:42 GMT -5
Like the judicial ? Gained 12 seats in the house ? Mid terms are coming. I think that there is a good chance that minority rule will dominate legislatively over the next decade with increasing violence from both those attempting to maintain and overcome it. The Supreme Court will play a major role. Assuming no deaths/retirements, it will come down to Chief Justice Roberts' ability to moderate the conservative majority on the court. If they do move quickly to overturn precedents, it will get particularly ugly. Another critical issue will be the Republican 2024 Presidential nominee. If they pick a decent human being, they stand a good chance to win in the Electoral College (again losing the popular vote). I don't think there will be any major precedents being overturned by the Supreme Court. There hasn't really been any hints at it as Trump quickly found out when he was still in office. Just a feeling, but I'm expecting judicial rulings to be quite uneventful, boring even.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 15, 2021 22:52:06 GMT -5
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 15, 2021 23:26:59 GMT -5
I think that there is a good chance that minority rule will dominate legislatively over the next decade with increasing violence from both those attempting to maintain and overcome it. The Supreme Court will play a major role. Assuming no deaths/retirements, it will come down to Chief Justice Roberts' ability to moderate the conservative majority on the court. If they do move quickly to overturn precedents, it will get particularly ugly. Another critical issue will be the Republican 2024 Presidential nominee. If they pick a decent human being, they stand a good chance to win in the Electoral College (again losing the popular vote). I don't think there will be any major precedents being overturned by the Supreme Court. There hasn't really been any hints at it as Trump quickly found out when he was still in office. Just a feeling, but I'm expecting judicial rulings to be quite uneventful, boring even. I don't know. Thomas and Alito are getting up there age wise so they could be thinking "if not now, when" on some issues. I see Kavanaugh as itching for a fight. Barrett has an interesting background that I think makes her a real wildcard. Leaves us Gorsuch. Roberts I see supporting uneventful. Time will tell.
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Post by Opti on Feb 15, 2021 23:58:07 GMT -5
I doubt God is disappointed in him. I guess the Ottos don't realize if anyone is in the devil's army it would be them. In the bible God endorses no political system and there is no biblical basis for being anti-abortion. Sometimes I want to ask these people, if God is so anti-abortion, why did he allow the slaughter of male children two and under? Trump should be opposed by any real Christian and any real American after January 6th. Really weird and sad to drag news or opinion hosts into it.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 16, 2021 2:08:31 GMT -5
it is very difficult to defeat an incumbent president.
it is WHY the 2020 race was as close as it was. incumbency probably garners you 5% of the electorate, or something like that. you have to do a real shit job to get dumped at 4 years.
Do you think Biden will run in 2024? at 82? if he is in good health, I think he will. if he is not, probably not. but whoever Biden picks as his successor will ride his coattails.
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Feb 16, 2021 6:47:26 GMT -5
11 Repo-Con Senators that voted for conviction of Clinton for lying about a BJ voted to acquit Trump for fomenting an insurrection that assaulted our Constitution, hunted elected officials inside our Capitol and caused death and injury to 140 police officers. Well...they are the party of law and order after all!
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Feb 16, 2021 9:59:32 GMT -5
Do you think Biden will run in 2024? at 82? if he is in good health, I think he will. if he is not, probably not. but whoever Biden picks as his successor will ride his coattails.
and - that wouldn't immediately be Kamala?
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 16, 2021 10:51:25 GMT -5
Do you think Biden will run in 2024? at 82? if he is in good health, I think he will. if he is not, probably not. but whoever Biden picks as his successor will ride his coattails.
I don't see Biden having strong enough coattails to get someone the party nomination let alone the presidency.
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laterbloomer
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Post by laterbloomer on Feb 16, 2021 15:11:53 GMT -5
Probably not. Its probably why his schedule shows he and Kamala working more closely/regularly together than generally happens. The grassroots organizers will work their asses off for Kamala. That makes me hopeful.
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laterbloomer
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Post by laterbloomer on Feb 16, 2021 15:14:41 GMT -5
if he is in good health, I think he will. if he is not, probably not. but whoever Biden picks as his successor will ride his coattails.
and - that wouldn't immediately be Kamala? It better be. The grassroots organizers that got us this election will freak if it isn't.
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oped
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Post by oped on Feb 16, 2021 16:20:51 GMT -5
Oh there are mixed feelings about her in the grassroots. It will depend upon how the next few years go.
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Feb 17, 2021 6:56:16 GMT -5
Yet with all this history, McConnell thought that he could deviate from Trump's line - blasting him for inciting the January 6 riots, while still allowing Trump to keep the spectre of another presidential run hanging over the GOP. This was supposed to keep the hardcore Trump voters excited and on the Republican bandwagon while letting the donor class know the GOP hasn't completely lost its mind. But that doesn't work for Trump. www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/this-is-what-mitch-gets-for-trying-to-have-it-both-ways-with-donald-trump/ar-BB1dKj4f?ocid=msedgntpAs we continue with the series, as the Donald turns, we get to watch him destroy the Republican party.
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Cheesy FL-Vol
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Post by Cheesy FL-Vol on Feb 17, 2021 8:03:51 GMT -5
Yet with all this history, McConnell thought that he could deviate from Trump's line - blasting him for inciting the January 6 riots, while still allowing Trump to keep the spectre of another presidential run hanging over the GOP. This was supposed to keep the hardcore Trump voters excited and on the Republican bandwagon while letting the donor class know the GOP hasn't completely lost its mind. But that doesn't work for Trump. www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/this-is-what-mitch-gets-for-trying-to-have-it-both-ways-with-donald-trump/ar-BB1dKj4f?ocid=msedgntpAs we continue with the series, as the Donald turns, we get to watch him destroy the Republican party. I think it is pretty evident that he already has.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Feb 17, 2021 10:43:53 GMT -5
Yet with all this history, McConnell thought that he could deviate from Trump's line - blasting him for inciting the January 6 riots, while still allowing Trump to keep the spectre of another presidential run hanging over the GOP. This was supposed to keep the hardcore Trump voters excited and on the Republican bandwagon while letting the donor class know the GOP hasn't completely lost its mind. But that doesn't work for Trump. www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/this-is-what-mitch-gets-for-trying-to-have-it-both-ways-with-donald-trump/ar-BB1dKj4f?ocid=msedgntpAs we continue with the series, as the Donald turns, we get to watch him destroy the Republican party. I think it is pretty evident that he already has. Don't count your chickens before they hatch. The Republicans are nearly as weak as "we" would like to think they are. Joe won by an electoral hair. Seats were lost in the house. And if GA hadn't gone to a run off, McConnell would still be the majority leader of the Senate. The Republicans also still have tremendous power in state governments. They may be in turmoil, but they will negotiate out of it somehow.
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Post by Tennesseer on Feb 17, 2021 11:04:55 GMT -5
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Post by Cheesy FL-Vol on Feb 17, 2021 11:19:31 GMT -5
I think it is pretty evident that he already has. Don't count your chickens before they hatch. The Republicans are nearly as weak as "we" would like to think they are. Joe won by an electoral hair. Seats were lost in the house. And if GA hadn't gone to a run off, McConnell would still be the majority leader of the Senate. The Republicans also still have tremendous power in state governments. They may be in turmoil, but they will negotiate out of it cheat somehow. Fixed
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 17, 2021 13:46:23 GMT -5
if he is in good health, I think he will. if he is not, probably not. but whoever Biden picks as his successor will ride his coattails.
and - that wouldn't immediately be Kamala? yep. that would be the conjecture.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 17, 2021 13:49:28 GMT -5
if he is in good health, I think he will. if he is not, probably not. but whoever Biden picks as his successor will ride his coattails.
I don't see Biden having strong enough coattails to get someone the party nomination let alone the presidency. I don't see why not.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Feb 17, 2021 13:55:47 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 17, 2021 13:56:34 GMT -5
I think it is pretty evident that he already has. Don't count your chickens before they hatch. The Republicans are nearly as weak as "we" would like to think they are. Joe won by an electoral hair. Seats were lost in the house. And if GA hadn't gone to a run off, McConnell would still be the majority leader of the Senate. The Republicans also still have tremendous power in state governments. They may be in turmoil, but they will negotiate out of it somehow. I disagree slightly with this characterization.
nobody described Trump's victory as "an electoral hair", even though that might have been a fair characterization. Trump would have to have held the rust belt to have won. Obama won in 2012 by approximately the same voter margin, and I don't recall anyone calling that one a squeaker, either.
and Democrats picked up Senate Seats, as I predicted 2 years ago, even before the runoffs.
YES, Republicans did better in down ballot races than expected. but they lost the country by 7M votes, which is massive. historically, a margin like that would get you more EV. in a fairer system, it would just come down to that.
in short, I think that Biden trounced him. if he had done as well as his Republican (House) counterparts, he would have won easily.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 17, 2021 14:21:34 GMT -5
I don't see Biden having strong enough coattails to get someone the party nomination let alone the presidency. I don't see why not. Here are my "why's". In last year's Democratic primaries, Biden was the frontrunner but his poor performances in Iowa and New Hampshire indicated lack of support. His comeback was fueled not so much by love of him but the desire to rid ourselves of Donald Trump and the belief he stood the best chance of victory. There remains serious fault lines within the Democratic party. Joe is a great guy but does not offer inspiring leadership.
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swamp
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Post by swamp on Feb 17, 2021 15:14:43 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 17, 2021 15:38:17 GMT -5
Here are my "why's". In last year's Democratic primaries, Biden was the frontrunner but his poor performances in Iowa and New Hampshire indicated lack of support. His comeback was fueled not so much by love of him but the desire to rid ourselves of Donald Trump and the belief he stood the best chance of victory. There remains serious fault lines within the Democratic party. Joe is a great guy but does not offer inspiring leadership. it sounds like you are talking about the primaries, here. let's compare this to 2008, where Obama narrowly won Iowa (which has been trending red since then) and narrowly losing NH (which has been trending blue since then).
I agree with you about "the best chance of victory" (even though I am not sure it is true, most Americans felt that way). I also agree that he is not inspiring leadership, even when compared to Trump (please recognize the heavy irony and annoyance with which I make this comparison).
but that doesn't mean he won't kill his Republican opponent in 2024, and it doesn't mean he won't run. I think both are likely. if you would like me to explain why, I can.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 17, 2021 15:54:28 GMT -5
if he is in good health, I think he will. if he is not, probably not. but whoever Biden picks as his successor will ride his coattails.
I don't see Biden having strong enough coattails to get someone the party nomination let alone the presidency. I don't see Biden having strong enough coattails to get someone the party nomination let alone the presidency. I don't see why not. Here are my "why's". In last year's Democratic primaries, Biden was the frontrunner but his poor performances in Iowa and New Hampshire indicated lack of support. His comeback was fueled not so much by love of him but the desire to rid ourselves of Donald Trump and the belief he stood the best chance of victory. There remains serious fault lines within the Democratic party. Joe is a great guy but does not offer inspiring leadership. Here are my "why's". In last year's Democratic primaries, Biden was the frontrunner but his poor performances in Iowa and New Hampshire indicated lack of support. His comeback was fueled not so much by love of him but the desire to rid ourselves of Donald Trump and the belief he stood the best chance of victory. There remains serious fault lines within the Democratic party. Joe is a great guy but does not offer inspiring leadership. it sounds like you are talking about the primaries, here. let's compare this to 2008, where Obama narrowly won Iowa (which has been trending red since then) and narrowly losing NH (which has been trending blue since then).
I agree with you about "the best chance of victory" (even though I am not sure it is true, most Americans felt that way). I also agree that he is not inspiring leadership, even when compared to Trump (please recognize the heavy irony and annoyance with which I make this comparison).
but that doesn't mean he won't kill his Republican opponent in 2024, and it doesn't mean he won't run. I think both are likely. if you would like me to explain why, I can.
I was talking coattails.
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Feb 17, 2021 17:23:42 GMT -5
in general? or for prez? she'll be 35 I think. our ideas on age for president is getting seriously warped I think.
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