Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Apr 29, 2020 11:56:12 GMT -5
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 29, 2020 12:49:43 GMT -5
Sometimes I need to just say things. Please don't take this as a personal attack.
I strongly object to having a body count prediction thread on the Politics board. It feels disrespectful to the human beings involved for it to be political.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 29, 2020 13:42:17 GMT -5
I'm a numbers guy, and I think the predictions are helpful for assessing mortal risk.
75k-110k IN THIS WAVE. if we get a relapse this Fall, all bets are off- and we probably WILL.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 29, 2020 13:52:17 GMT -5
I'm a numbers guy, and I think the predictions are helpful for assessing mortal risk. 75k-110k IN THIS WAVE. if we get a relapse this Fall, all bets are off- and we probably WILL. FWIW, my comment was only about having this on the Politics Board. I think there is good reason for it on Current Events.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 29, 2020 13:56:25 GMT -5
I'm a numbers guy, and I think the predictions are helpful for assessing mortal risk. 75k-110k IN THIS WAVE. if we get a relapse this Fall, all bets are off- and we probably WILL. I have yet to here a good reason why this won't be a problem in the fall
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Apr 29, 2020 14:07:18 GMT -5
Sometimes I need to just say things. Please don't take this as a personal attack. I strongly object to having a body count prediction thread on the Politics board. It feels disrespectful to the human beings involved for it to be political. I'd say these predictions are the biggest political question of our time. Who predicted what and who did or didn't act on it and with what result. I don't see it as disrespectful in the least. I think it's disrespectful to ignore these numbers.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Apr 29, 2020 14:12:25 GMT -5
I think the counts are alittle low... how the numbers of dead are reported and counted are Political. and the deaths do effect Politics - as in how do we all deal with it? Some places are counting nursing home deaths and deaths at home - and some places are not. I suspect those numbers would increase the death counts in some of the states with big populations and low covid19 death counts. As such, I think it's not totally inappropriate for the politics board. I think we can guesstimate the number of deaths for the next 30 days.... since close to 2K have been dying everyday for the past 2 weeks... and infection rate has stayed about the same. 2K * 30 days = 60K give or take 5K? I really don't think our death numbers are going to drop significantly in the next 10 to 15 days... I'm thinking once Covid19 spreads to more people (in the states that have been sheltering in place) there will be a steady trickle of death going forward. So my guesstimate is of another 60K dead in 30 days -- that's 120K total confirmed deaths by June 1st. I think June will show fewer current deaths - maybe only 30K but the counts may jump because they may start including previous months deaths if they start including Nursing home deaths and deaths at home and "probably" Covid19 deaths (no test done but all the symptoms). I think the deaths will continue as the virus continues to spread... which means we'll have daily counts probably under 500 once it all settles down. There's also the unpleasant bit where people recover from COVID19 but then die in the not so distant future from complications from COVID19 or their treatment while they had COVID19
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 29, 2020 14:14:28 GMT -5
the trend is pretty flat on cases per day right now.
imo that is NOT good, but it is better than growing every day, certainly.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Apr 29, 2020 14:20:07 GMT -5
the trend is pretty flat on cases per day right now. imo that is NOT good, but it is better than growing every day, certainly. I'm still confused on goals. In the beginning it was flattening the curve. That's been accomplished. Are we hopeful for effective treatments or a vaccine in the very near future? That changes the story. But opening up the states seems to indicate there is nothing in the wings to wait for? trials are occurring - but if something was going to be "known" in a short period of time - I think the advice would be to wait for that info/product before opening.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 29, 2020 14:24:11 GMT -5
the trend is pretty flat on cases per day right now. imo that is NOT good, but it is better than growing every day, certainly. I'm still confused on goals. In the beginning it was flattening the curve. That's been accomplished. Are we hopeful for effective treatments or a vaccine in the very near future? That changes the story. But opening up the states seems to indicate there is nothing in the wings to wait for? trials are occurring - but if something was going to be "known" in a short period of time - I think the advice would be to wait for that info/product before opening. I think we should shelter in place until something important develops in on the immunology front. in fact, that is the policy at work, now. we are doing the same thing as yesterday for the forseeable future.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Apr 29, 2020 14:30:17 GMT -5
I'm still confused on goals. In the beginning it was flattening the curve. That's been accomplished. Are we hopeful for effective treatments or a vaccine in the very near future? That changes the story. But opening up the states seems to indicate there is nothing in the wings to wait for? trials are occurring - but if something was going to be "known" in a short period of time - I think the advice would be to wait for that info/product before opening. I think we should shelter in place until something important develops in on the immunology front. in fact, that is the policy at work, now. we are doing the same thing as yesterday for the forseeable future.
I agree - but for how long do we wait? I'd hate for this to be the status quo 5 years from now....
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Apr 29, 2020 14:32:19 GMT -5
And it is political... depending on how the deaths are counted could be used to put a positive spin on the situation AND how well the administration (local and federal) did or did not do.
How hard hit areas are also plays into getting Government aid (the States already all declared disasters...) but it may also play into how much other types of aid are available AND where that aid goes.
The death counts will also play into future regulations and preparedness... both of which are also political
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 29, 2020 14:53:09 GMT -5
THe plan in place for now was to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed, as it was in NYC. It seems to have worked fairly well. The goal now should be to allow the infections to decrease, we can replenish the medical supply chain, while we have a well thought out plan to start to withdraw the restrictions. We need to get to a place where there is a tolerable number of infections, so the medical system and society can function. To really get to zero infections, we would need to lock down harder, and restrict any sort of travel. Not going to happen. There is nothing from a medical standpoint that will prevent or treat infections on the short term horizon. This will be our reality for some time. There will be another spike in infections. How how will depend on our behavior, and our response.
Sorry to be a downer, but this is the reality. Anything else requires a miracle on the medical front, or the behavior of the virus to change.
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Apr 29, 2020 15:01:09 GMT -5
I have accepted we're likely going to get it. I'm just trying to play the longest game of hide and go seek ever. While everyone else gets tired of hiding despite 467 new cases as of today I am content to see what happens as they all rush out the door before I join them.
Eventually I'll have to go back to as close as normal as possible but I don't have to do everything all at once. I wear a hair net at work so for 8 hours a day, I can wait to see how the salon works out all the kinks of making sure social distance is ensured. Everyone else can go wait in 2 hour+ long lines as soon as they open.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 29, 2020 15:13:59 GMT -5
I have accepted we're likely going to get it. I'm just trying to play the longest game of hide and go seek ever. While everyone else gets tired of hiding despite 467 new cases as of today I am content to see what happens as they all rush out the door before I join them. I don't plan on holing up until 2022, there are things I can't avoid if I don't want to have even more problems to deal with. But I can certainly put a lot of things off for another month and be just fine. The longer you can delay getting it, the better our understanding of the disease becomes, and the better chance of some treatment being found. Unfortunately, people in the first phase are guinea pigs, and if there is an effective treatment found during it, it is just due to luck.
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Apr 29, 2020 15:26:34 GMT -5
I have accepted we're likely going to get it. I'm just trying to play the longest game of hide and go seek ever. While everyone else gets tired of hiding despite 467 new cases as of today I am content to see what happens as they all rush out the door before I join them. I don't plan on holing up until 2022, there are things I can't avoid if I don't want to have even more problems to deal with. But I can certainly put a lot of things off for another month and be just fine. The longer you can delay getting it, the better our understanding of the disease becomes, and the better chance of some treatment being found. Unfortunately, people in the first phase are guinea pigs, and if there is an effective treatment found during it, it is just due to luck. Yeah I am predicting June at the earliest we start to resume some activities. That might be pushed back to July depending on what happens here. No way am I going to be a part of the wave that is quite likely coming for Iowa mid-May. We are one of the counties approved to be open but since we're the butt of a lot of jokes in Iowa I'm hoping all those people from the counties not open stay the heck away from us. The neighbors of those counties are freaking screwed though because Reynolds is not banning travel between counties. It's all the honor system.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Apr 29, 2020 15:40:12 GMT -5
I'm still confused on goals. In the beginning it was flattening the curve. That's been accomplished. Are we hopeful for effective treatments or a vaccine in the very near future? That changes the story. But opening up the states seems to indicate there is nothing in the wings to wait for? trials are occurring - but if something was going to be "known" in a short period of time - I think the advice would be to wait for that info/product before opening. I think we should shelter in place until something important develops in on the immunology front. in fact, that is the policy at work, now. we are doing the same thing as yesterday for the forseeable future.
It is easy to say we should continue to shelter in place if you are in a similar situation to me. We are both still working from home and our income is unchanged. We have a single family home where everyone has their own room. We have a big yard, so we can spend time outside. We have family with us, so we are able to talk, laugh, play games, etc. We have adequate internet and we have 4 phones, 3 TVs, and (I shit you not) 9 computers - including chrome books, laptops from work, desk tops, etc.) I have no duties to care for anyone outside my home. No one has any special needs. I don't feel like I can make a universal decision for people who have additional challenges. I don't have a lot of sympathy for the stupid "I want a haircut" lady, but if her sign said "I need to give you a haircut" I'd have some sympathy for her situation.
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oped
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Post by oped on Apr 29, 2020 15:54:25 GMT -5
No. But as I CAN stay home in a similar space... I can decrease the mass and spread 'out there' by doing so. I feel that I should. When this was first starting, daughter's college was giving the option of staying, because some student's didn't have great options... in that situation I was like, you CAN come home... you do, so someone else can stay.
Some areas will be much, much harder than others to reduce the circulating population.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 29, 2020 16:25:15 GMT -5
I think we should shelter in place until something important develops in on the immunology front. in fact, that is the policy at work, now. we are doing the same thing as yesterday for the forseeable future.
It is easy to say we should continue to shelter in place if you are in a similar situation to me. We are both still working from home and our income is unchanged. We have a single family home where everyone has their own room. We have a big yard, so we can spend time outside. We have family with us, so we are able to talk, laugh, play games, etc. We have adequate internet and we have 4 phones, 3 TVs, and (I shit you not) 9 computers - including chrome books, laptops from work, desk tops, etc.) I have no duties to care for anyone outside my home. No one has any special needs. I don't feel like I can make a universal decision for people who have additional challenges. I don't have a lot of sympathy for the stupid "I want a haircut" lady, but if her sign said "I need to give you a haircut" I'd have some sympathy for her situation. it is also easy to say if you commit those $2T to the unemployed.
if there are 30M of them, that is $67k each. that is certainly enough to keep people from starving- for well over a year.
the problem of course is that this is NOT going to the unemployed.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Apr 29, 2020 17:14:04 GMT -5
It is easy to say we should continue to shelter in place if you are in a similar situation to me. We are both still working from home and our income is unchanged. We have a single family home where everyone has their own room. We have a big yard, so we can spend time outside. We have family with us, so we are able to talk, laugh, play games, etc. We have adequate internet and we have 4 phones, 3 TVs, and (I shit you not) 9 computers - including chrome books, laptops from work, desk tops, etc.) I have no duties to care for anyone outside my home. No one has any special needs. I don't feel like I can make a universal decision for people who have additional challenges. I don't have a lot of sympathy for the stupid "I want a haircut" lady, but if her sign said "I need to give you a haircut" I'd have some sympathy for her situation. it is also easy to say if you commit those $2T to the unemployed.
if there are 30M of them, that is $67k each. that is certainly enough to keep people from starving- for well over a year.
the problem of course is that this is NOT going to the unemployed.
POTD.
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formerroomate99
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Post by formerroomate99 on May 1, 2020 2:29:51 GMT -5
It is easy to say we should continue to shelter in place if you are in a similar situation to me. We are both still working from home and our income is unchanged. We have a single family home where everyone has their own room. We have a big yard, so we can spend time outside. We have family with us, so we are able to talk, laugh, play games, etc. We have adequate internet and we have 4 phones, 3 TVs, and (I shit you not) 9 computers - including chrome books, laptops from work, desk tops, etc.) I have no duties to care for anyone outside my home. No one has any special needs. I don't feel like I can make a universal decision for people who have additional challenges. I don't have a lot of sympathy for the stupid "I want a haircut" lady, but if her sign said "I need to give you a haircut" I'd have some sympathy for her situation. it is also easy to say if you commit those $2T to the unemployed.
if there are 30M of them, that is $67k each. that is certainly enough to keep people from starving- for well over a year.
the problem of course is that this is NOT going to the unemployed.
No it isn't, because if all the businesses that employed them go under, they will not get a job once the year is up. And frankly, there are plenty of people who were making a lot more than 67k at jobs that have disappeared. 67k isn't going to pay their bills for a year either. For example, a lot of companies have slashed their IT staff since this started. Even though these jobs can be done just fine from home, it's not easy to find a job when 90% of the companies are either laying people off or doing a hiring freeze. It isn't just the lady at the haircut place that is getting hit hard.
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on May 1, 2020 6:33:17 GMT -5
It is easy to say we should continue to shelter in place if you are in a similar situation to me. We are both still working from home and our income is unchanged. We have a single family home where everyone has their own room. We have a big yard, so we can spend time outside. We have family with us, so we are able to talk, laugh, play games, etc. We have adequate internet and we have 4 phones, 3 TVs, and (I shit you not) 9 computers - including chrome books, laptops from work, desk tops, etc.) I have no duties to care for anyone outside my home. No one has any special needs. I don't feel like I can make a universal decision for people who have additional challenges. I don't have a lot of sympathy for the stupid "I want a haircut" lady, but if her sign said "I need to give you a haircut" I'd have some sympathy for her situation. it is also easy to say if you commit those $2T to the unemployed.
if there are 30M of them, that is $67k each. that is certainly enough to keep people from starving- for well over a year.
the problem of course is that this is NOT going to the unemployed.
Republican version of "shovel ready" LOL McGrarth has a great campaign ad against Mitch: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/29/is-mcconnell-trying-lose-majority/
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dezii
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Post by dezii on May 1, 2020 6:53:00 GMT -5
Sometimes I need to just say things. Please don't take this as a personal attack. I strongly object to having a body count prediction thread on the Politics board. It feels disrespectful to the human beings involved for it to be political. I'd say these predictions are the biggest political question of our time. Who predicted what and who did or didn't act on it and with what result. I don't see it as disrespectful in the least. I think it's disrespectful to ignore these numbers. Agree....well said
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on May 1, 2020 8:48:39 GMT -5
it is also easy to say if you commit those $2T to the unemployed.
if there are 30M of them, that is $67k each. that is certainly enough to keep people from starving- for well over a year.
the problem of course is that this is NOT going to the unemployed.
No it isn't, because if all the businesses that employed them go under, they will not get a job once the year is up. And frankly, there are plenty of people who were making a lot more than 67k at jobs that have disappeared. 67k isn't going to pay their bills for a year either. For example, a lot of companies have slashed their IT staff since this started. Even though these jobs can be done just fine from home, it's not easy to find a job when 90% of the companies are either laying people off or doing a hiring freeze. It isn't just the lady at the haircut place that is getting hit hard. Those businesses need customers to survive. Consumers drive that. It is a vicious cycle. Without consumers there are no businesses. Without businesses there are no jobs. Without jobs there are no consumers. Without consumers there are no businesses. Also, 67k would be an average payout - not everyone gets 67k no matter if they lost a 22k job or a 122k job. Some countries are promising a percentage - like 80% or 85% income replacement. Welcome Americans to the concept of cutting back. 80% is way better than a one time $1,200 check and maybe UI payments, maybe not. That 80% would not be a perpetual program.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on May 1, 2020 12:35:22 GMT -5
it is also easy to say if you commit those $2T to the unemployed.
if there are 30M of them, that is $67k each. that is certainly enough to keep people from starving- for well over a year.
the problem of course is that this is NOT going to the unemployed.
No it isn't, because if all the businesses that employed them go under, they will not get a job once the year is up. And frankly, there are plenty of people who were making a lot more than 67k at jobs that have disappeared. 67k isn't going to pay their bills for a year either. For example, a lot of companies have slashed their IT staff since this started. Even though these jobs can be done just fine from home, it's not easy to find a job when 90% of the companies are either laying people off or doing a hiring freeze. It isn't just the lady at the haircut place that is getting hit hard. yes it is. businesses need consumers. it is the virtuous cycle.
you have fallen into the trap that has been made by our masters. that they alone are responsible for the economy, and it is simply not true.
if you want to create jobs, you stimulate demand, not supply.
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busymom
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Post by busymom on May 1, 2020 13:41:24 GMT -5
I'm a numbers person, too. Sadly, since a number of states are reopening too early, IMHO, I believe we will hit 250,000 shortly. And, by the time we've had multiple cycles of the virus, if no vaccine is created, I think we'll hit the one million mark. (Again, just a personal opinion. Your guess is as good as mine...)
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mollyanna58
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Post by mollyanna58 on May 1, 2020 13:51:46 GMT -5
I just found out a client passed away 3 weeks ago from COVID-19. She was elderly, and had moved into an assisted living facility a few weeks before it went into lockdown.
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steff
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Post by steff on May 1, 2020 13:57:32 GMT -5
As long as the number is below the high estimate of 2 million, the cult of trump will stand on the bodies & celebrate a job well done. They already are while the pile of dead grows. The GOP is a religious death cult.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on May 1, 2020 19:59:29 GMT -5
from 60 to 65k dead in just two days
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on May 1, 2020 20:12:10 GMT -5
I think the counts are alittle low... how the numbers of dead are reported and counted are Political. and the deaths do effect Politics - as in how do we all deal with it? Some places are counting nursing home deaths and deaths at home - and some places are not. I suspect those numbers would increase the death counts in some of the states with big populations and low covid19 death counts. As such, I think it's not totally inappropriate for the politics board. I think we can guesstimate the number of deaths for the next 30 days.... since close to 2K have been dying everyday for the past 2 weeks... and infection rate has stayed about the same. 2K * 30 days = 60K give or take 5K? I really don't think our death numbers are going to drop significantly in the next 10 to 15 days... I'm thinking once Covid19 spreads to more people (in the states that have been sheltering in place) there will be a steady trickle of death going forward. So my guesstimate is of another 60K dead in 30 days -- that's 120K total confirmed deaths by June 1st. I think June will show fewer current deaths - maybe only 30K but the counts may jump because they may start including previous months deaths if they start including Nursing home deaths and deaths at home and "probably" Covid19 deaths (no test done but all the symptoms). I think the deaths will continue as the virus continues to spread... which means we'll have daily counts probably under 500 once it all settles down. There's also the unpleasant bit where people recover from COVID19 but then die in the not so distant future from complications from COVID19 or their treatment while they had COVID19 that doesn't seem unreasonable. every day that passes convinces me you might be right. we have been averaging 2k/day for nearly a month, and we had 1900 yesterday.
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