steff
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I'll sleep when I'm dead
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Post by steff on May 1, 2020 20:40:31 GMT -5
Georgia opening for business has gone well. We had 1,000 new cases in 24 hours yesterday! Canaries in a coal mine & we're all about to start dying.
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kadee79
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S.W. Ga., zone 8b, out in the boonies!
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Post by kadee79 on May 1, 2020 21:29:05 GMT -5
Georgia opening for business has gone well. We had 1,000 new cases in 24 hours yesterday! Canaries in a coal mine & we're all about to start dying. Well, I'm not dying yet....I'm too damn stubborn to do that just to prove Kemp wrong. All you have to do is watch the numbers daily to see how wrong he is. I also think he should be compelled to open the governor's mansion for tours too....what's good for us should be good for him & his family too!
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on May 2, 2020 10:09:37 GMT -5
So, why do we have over a million confirmed cases and only 165k people are recovered? Is it that because 775k people are still sick, or because 400k are still sick and 375k are probably okay, but no one is checking on them?
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on May 2, 2020 10:18:10 GMT -5
So, why do we have over a million confirmed cases and only 165k people are recovered? Is it that because 775k people are still sick, or because 400k are still sick and 375k are probably okay, but no one is checking on them? www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/if you scroll down, they have active cases, closed cases - death and recovered. That should add up to the confirmed cases.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 2, 2020 10:34:49 GMT -5
They did an analysis of deaths in my state for April. If you take last April’s deaths, add death from covid to it, and compare to the actual number, we are about 500 short. So, we have approximately 500 more deaths to add to our numbers. We would be about 20% higher if we did that. Add 20% to our official death toll and we are almost 80,000. Anyone think we won’t hit 100k by summer?
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on May 2, 2020 10:42:10 GMT -5
They did an analysis of deaths in my state for April. If you take last April’s deaths, add death from covid to it, and compare to the actual number, we are about 500 short. So, we have approximately 500 more deaths to add to our numbers. We would be about 20% higher if we did that. Add 20% to our official death toll and we are almost 80,000. Anyone think we won’t hit 100k by summer? Has anyone looked at what has happened to deaths from heart attacks, strokes and pulmonary embolisms? With funky clotting being a side effect of this disease, I wonder how many cases are hidden there?
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teen persuasion
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Post by teen persuasion on May 2, 2020 11:05:44 GMT -5
So, why do we have over a million confirmed cases and only 165k people are recovered? Is it that because 775k people are still sick, or because 400k are still sick and 375k are probably okay, but no one is checking on them? Many areas simply aren't tracking recovereds at all, or anymore. The big metro area south of me was tracking recovered numbers, and then quit. There's graphs of it, and they flatline after x date. Other counties in the region are still tracking recovered numbers, but their caseloads are much smaller. So the numbers are like the confirmed positive numbers - only those we can actually prove. If they aren't measuring them, they don't exist. Then other sites aggregate the numbers they find, good, bad, or indifferent.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 2, 2020 11:17:40 GMT -5
Going to be hard to know. But if they were sick with covid, all those deaths are still due to it. Interesting thing is that admissions for heart attacks and strokes are down. Probably because people are afraid to go to the hospital. So some of our excess deaths may be due to those problems. Without an autopsy, we will never know and they won’t be done due to the number of deaths. But if people stay home and die if potentially treatable conditions, they are just as much victims as those that die of the infection
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on May 2, 2020 11:24:07 GMT -5
They did an analysis of deaths in my state for April. If you take last April’s deaths, add death from covid to it, and compare to the actual number, we are about 500 short. So, we have approximately 500 more deaths to add to our numbers. We would be about 20% higher if we did that. Add 20% to our official death toll and we are almost 80,000. Anyone think we won’t hit 100k by summer? Since I was already called out once on another thread for making a nasty response, I figure why not double down. Please keep in mind that this thread is about numbers and not human beings. Reality is. I do think that the 100k will be reached but something that predictors need to take into account is there are a limited number of "most venerable" people so as they die, it will slow the number of new deaths.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 2, 2020 11:29:30 GMT -5
They did an analysis of deaths in my state for April. If you take last April’s deaths, add death from covid to it, and compare to the actual number, we are about 500 short. So, we have approximately 500 more deaths to add to our numbers. We would be about 20% higher if we did that. Add 20% to our official death toll and we are almost 80,000. Anyone think we won’t hit 100k by summer? Since I was already called out once on another thread for making a nasty response, I figure why not double down. Please keep in mind that this thread is about numbers and not human beings. Reality is. I do think that the 100k will be reached but something that predictors need to take into account is there are a limited number of "most venerable" people so as they die, it will slow the number of new deaths. Unfortunately, obesity is a significant risk factor complications, and there does not appear to be limited supply of people with that condition, especially in many of the states rushing to lift restrictions, so I think 100k may be conservative
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on May 2, 2020 11:44:11 GMT -5
Since I was already called out once on another thread for making a nasty response, I figure why not double down. Please keep in mind that this thread is about numbers and not human beings. Reality is. I do think that the 100k will be reached but something that predictors need to take into account is there are a limited number of "most venerable" people so as they die, it will slow the number of new deaths. Unfortunately, obesity is a significant risk factor complications, and there does not appear to be limited supply of people with that condition, especially in many of the states rushing to lift restrictions, so I think 100k may be conservative Yes there does appear to not be a limited supply.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on May 2, 2020 15:27:24 GMT -5
They did an analysis of deaths in my state for April. If you take last April’s deaths, add death from covid to it, and compare to the actual number, we are about 500 short. So, we have approximately 500 more deaths to add to our numbers. We would be about 20% higher if we did that. Add 20% to our official death toll and we are almost 80,000. Anyone think we won’t hit 100k by summer? that would be in the low part of the range, unfortunately.
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NastyWoman
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Post by NastyWoman on May 2, 2020 16:53:28 GMT -5
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 2, 2020 16:56:28 GMT -5
Amazing how low politicians will stoop. They elected, so they deserve what they get
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djAdvocate
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only posting when the mood strikes me.
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Post by djAdvocate on May 2, 2020 17:25:27 GMT -5
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NastyWoman
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Post by NastyWoman on May 2, 2020 17:54:56 GMT -5
they won't stop the truth from coming out. it will just take a little longer. True that. Unfortunately there will always be people who so desperately want to believe that it really is not all that bad, that this distortion of facts WILL cost lives.
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emma1420
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Post by emma1420 on May 7, 2020 13:29:45 GMT -5
They did an analysis of deaths in my state for April. If you take last April’s deaths, add death from covid to it, and compare to the actual number, we are about 500 short. So, we have approximately 500 more deaths to add to our numbers. We would be about 20% higher if we did that. Add 20% to our official death toll and we are almost 80,000. Anyone think we won’t hit 100k by summer? Has anyone looked at what has happened to deaths from heart attacks, strokes and pulmonary embolisms? With funky clotting being a side effect of this disease, I wonder how many cases are hidden there? Not to mention, the people who will most likely will die because of delayed care due to the virus. Perhaps COVID won't directly kill them, but the result of the pandemic will have meant delayed care for issues like renal failure, diabetes, heart disease, etc., which will result in more people dying prematurely.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on May 7, 2020 14:20:35 GMT -5
They did an analysis of deaths in my state for April. If you take last April’s deaths, add death from covid to it, and compare to the actual number, we are about 500 short. So, we have approximately 500 more deaths to add to our numbers. We would be about 20% higher if we did that. Add 20% to our official death toll and we are almost 80,000. Anyone think we won’t hit 100k by summer? Has anyone looked at what has happened to deaths from heart attacks, strokes and pulmonary embolisms? With funky clotting being a side effect of this disease, I wonder how many cases are hidden there? They will fall into the "gap" numbers. As in generally X number of people die in April (or some other range) of heart attacks, strokes and pulmonary embolisms but in April 2020 we had Y deaths with those clasification... Y - X gives you the gap. If it's a significate difference it's highly likely the covid19 was involved in the death in some way. We might not know definatively if covid19 was a factor - but it is telling if deaths increase. this was used in the Chicago '95 heatwave - trips to the Emergency room and hospitalizations jumped dramatically in the last days of the heat wave and in the weeks that followed. Heat was determined to be a contributing factor to those cases (as well as to deaths). Even though sitting in (and surviving) your home for 3 or 4 days in 95 and higher heat with no relief at night for 3 or 4 days didn't leave any "tell tale signs" on the victims - their health issues became worse or they developed issues. I wouldn't be surprised if Covid19 does something like that - people who had it and recovered but then have health issues or death in the weeks or months after they had it....MIGHT have covid19 as a factor contributing to their death. We won't see those numbers for a few months or more. (which is why I'm surprised when someone says they'd just rather get it and be done with it.... I keep thinking -you don't know if you'd be done with it... you might have a "friend for life" kinda virus OR maybe some other health issue from it. We don't know at this point. it might not be "just like the flu")
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oped
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Post by oped on May 7, 2020 14:23:40 GMT -5
Has anyone looked at what has happened to deaths from heart attacks, strokes and pulmonary embolisms? With funky clotting being a side effect of this disease, I wonder how many cases are hidden there? Not to mention, the people who will most likely will die because of delayed care due to the virus. Perhaps COVID won't directly kill them, but the result of the pandemic will have meant delayed care for issues like renal failure, diabetes, heart disease, etc., which will result in more people dying prematurely. Actually the disease might kill them. The blood clot issue isn’t completely understood yet with covid. And there are apparently excess strokes in 30-40 age groups. ETA: reading again, I think you might have meant in addition...
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on May 7, 2020 14:48:04 GMT -5
They did an analysis of deaths in my state for April. If you take last April’s deaths, add death from covid to it, and compare to the actual number, we are about 500 short. So, we have approximately 500 more deaths to add to our numbers. We would be about 20% higher if we did that. Add 20% to our official death toll and we are almost 80,000. Anyone think we won’t hit 100k by summer? Since I was already called out once on another thread for making a nasty response, I figure why not double down. Please keep in mind that this thread is about numbers and not human beings. Reality is. I do think that the 100k will be reached but something that predictors need to take into account is there are a limited number of "most venerable" people so as they die, it will slow the number of new deaths. So, how many people are in that category? 500K? 1mil? 2mil? What percentage of them are dying? How long until we have a vaccine? I hear 10K Boomers per day have been turning 65 since 2011... That's about 35 million boomers over the age 65... I read that 1 in 7 Americans is older (I'm assuming 65 or older). As far as I can tell Covid19 is still spreading and there's no way to stop the spread. I'm thinking the next few months are gonna be ugly. And what happens if Covid19 is still freely circulating when the flu season hits? What happens when you take a one two punch from the flu and Covid19?
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on May 7, 2020 14:55:01 GMT -5
I was thinking about in the olden days - when you got a newspaper - it would have the Obit section. If there were an increase in death announcements you would know it. I'm wondering if there's something similiar online - It would be interesting to see the Obit listings since March in states like West Virginia and Georgia and Florida. (they all seem to be editing their official numbers or the way they count covid19 deaths. ). I would think people wouldn't lie about their loved one having died (they may not tell what the cause was) And that would a way to extrapolate if there was a increase in deaths.
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emma1420
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Post by emma1420 on May 7, 2020 15:18:54 GMT -5
Not to mention, the people who will most likely will die because of delayed care due to the virus. Perhaps COVID won't directly kill them, but the result of the pandemic will have meant delayed care for issues like renal failure, diabetes, heart disease, etc., which will result in more people dying prematurely. Actually the disease might kill them. The blood clot issue isn’t completely understood yet with covid. And there are apparently excess strokes in 30-40 age groups. ETA: reading again, I think you might have meant in addition... Yes, I was thinking in addition. Where people who are sheltering in place don't go to the doctor for routine care. Because they are afraid or because their regular clinic they attend has had their hours cut significantly. We will never know how many people will likely die because as a result of the delayed care, but I suspect we will see more of those types of deaths in the next couple of years. And because elective procedures have been stopped for so long, which is the major generator of revenue for most hospitals, there are going to be many specialty clinics that will not see their hours restored. I know several people who are nurses and pharmacists who have been laid off, and they are practicing in a hard hit area like ambulatory care. These are people who work in the Emergency Department and Critical Care.
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emma1420
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Post by emma1420 on May 7, 2020 15:25:36 GMT -5
Since I was already called out once on another thread for making a nasty response, I figure why not double down. Please keep in mind that this thread is about numbers and not human beings. Reality is. I do think that the 100k will be reached but something that predictors need to take into account is there are a limited number of "most venerable" people so as they die, it will slow the number of new deaths. So, how many people are in that category? 500K? 1mil? 2mil? What percentage of them are dying? How long until we have a vaccine? I hear 10K Boomers per day have been turning 65 since 2011... That's about 35 million boomers over the age 65... I read that 1 in 7 Americans is older (I'm assuming 65 or older). As far as I can tell Covid19 is still spreading and there's no way to stop the spread. I'm thinking the next few months are gonna be ugly. And what happens if Covid19 is still freely circulating when the flu season hits? What happens when you take a one two punch from the flu and Covid19? While there is rightly a big emphasis on a vaccine, to me what is even more important is an effective treatment. Even if one of the vaccines that are being fast tracked across the world is ready this fall (the one in the UK they think might be ready in September if it's proven effective in clinical trials) it's going to take several years getting the 1+ billion people in the developed world vaccinated, and even longer to get everyone in the world vaccinated. So what do we do until then. We need effective treatments. Treatments that keep the majority of people out of the ICU.
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jelloshots4all
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Post by jelloshots4all on May 7, 2020 15:54:48 GMT -5
We've topped 75,000 deaths and it's only May 7th. Tragic!! Damn govt for waiting 70 days to take it seriously!!
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 7, 2020 16:05:24 GMT -5
I was thinking about in the olden days - when you got a newspaper - it would have the Obit section. If there were an increase in death announcements you would know it. I'm wondering if there's something similiar online - It would be interesting to see the Obit listings since March in states like West Virginia and Georgia and Florida. (they all seem to be editing their official numbers or the way they count covid19 deaths. ). I would think people wouldn't lie about their loved one having died (they may not tell what the cause was) And that would a way to extrapolate if there was a increase in deaths. That’s exactly what is going on in our paper. Obits significantly bigger. Rest of patient we shrinking
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Happy prose
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Post by Happy prose on May 7, 2020 16:18:52 GMT -5
They did an analysis of deaths in my state for April. If you take last April’s deaths, add death from covid to it, and compare to the actual number, we are about 500 short. So, we have approximately 500 more deaths to add to our numbers. We would be about 20% higher if we did that. Add 20% to our official death toll and we are almost 80,000. Anyone think we won’t hit 100k by summer? I say we hit it by July 4. NJ opened parks, beaches and boardwalks.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on May 7, 2020 19:54:09 GMT -5
from 60 to 65k dead in just two days 65 to over 75k dead in 6 days.....
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on May 7, 2020 21:05:11 GMT -5
They did an analysis of deaths in my state for April. If you take last April’s deaths, add death from covid to it, and compare to the actual number, we are about 500 short. So, we have approximately 500 more deaths to add to our numbers. We would be about 20% higher if we did that. Add 20% to our official death toll and we are almost 80,000. Anyone think we won’t hit 100k by summer? I say we hit it by July 4. NJ opened parks, beaches and boardwalks. July 4 seems far away. I think early to mid June for 100k.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on May 7, 2020 21:09:19 GMT -5
I say we hit it by July 4. NJ opened parks, beaches and boardwalks. July 4 seems far away. I think early to mid June for 100k. and I think that making it to June might be optimistic.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on May 7, 2020 21:23:41 GMT -5
July 4 seems far away. I think early to mid June for 100k. and I think that making it to June might be optimistic. I originally was going to say before June 1. We shall see what happens with reopening.
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