djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 4, 2016 2:25:41 GMT -5
whole bunch of slippage for Democrats in today's polls. here is where we stand today: Safe Democrat Seats = 50 Safe Republican Seats = 47IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = IN, NH Tossup = MO Leans Republican = NC(4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 50D, 50R 52D, 48R 49D, 51R the odds actually shifted a bit more toward the GOP today, but NC also moved out of the Safe category. odds are now about 5:3 in favor of Democrats winning (50) or more seats, which is again TRAILING the presidential race (which is still 2:1. both were 2:1 for the last few days). slight slippage in IN, but otherwise the day ended slightly better for Democrats. Safe Democrat Seats = 50 Safe Republican Seats = 47 IN PLAY STATESLeans Democrat = NH Tossup = MO, IN Leans Republican = NC (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 50D, 50R 49D, 51R odds are back to 2:1 for Democrats taking the Senate.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2016 10:06:12 GMT -5
the odds actually shifted a bit more toward the GOP today, but NC also moved out of the Safe category. odds are now about 5:3 in favor of Democrats winning (50) or more seats, which is again TRAILING the presidential race (which is still 2:1. both were 2:1 for the last few days). slight slippage in IN, but otherwise the day ended slightly better for Democrats. Safe Democrat Seats = 50 Safe Republican Seats = 47 IN PLAY STATESLeans Democrat = NH Tossup = MO, IN Leans Republican = NC (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 50D, 50R 49D, 51R odds are back to 2:1 for Democrats taking the Senate. this is getting really tight. what we are seeing is that some states are staying very stable (ie, PA), and others are moving SHARPLY to Republicans in the polling (MO, IN). this is changing the odds a lot. right now, it is 5:4 Democrats: Safe Democrat Seats = 49 Safe Republican Seats = 47 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = NONE Tossup = MO, NHLeans Republican = NC, IN(4) most likely outcomes: 50D, 50R 49D, 51R 51D, 49R 52D, 48R i would have been fairly confident calling this a week ago, but now it is too close to call.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 6, 2016 12:55:54 GMT -5
slight slippage in IN, but otherwise the day ended slightly better for Democrats. Safe Democrat Seats = 50 Safe Republican Seats = 47 IN PLAY STATESLeans Democrat = NH Tossup = MO, IN Leans Republican = NC (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 50D, 50R 49D, 51R odds are back to 2:1 for Democrats taking the Senate. this is getting really tight. what we are seeing is that some states are staying very stable (ie, PA), and others are moving SHARPLY to Republicans in the polling (MO, IN). this is changing the odds a lot. right now, it is 5:4 Democrats: Safe Democrat Seats = 49 Safe Republican Seats = 47 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = NONE Tossup = MO, NHLeans Republican = NC, IN(4) most likely outcomes: 50D, 50R 49D, 51R 51D, 49R 52D, 48R i would have been fairly confident calling this a week ago, but now it is too close to call. the odds have continued to move, and the Senate control is now TOSSUP. 50/50 odds. this is the best overview of what the pollsters think: www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html#other-forecastsnobody is calling it for the GOP, but almost half are calling it tossup. NOTE: since Senate polling lags national and presidential polling by about a week, i would GUESS that the situation is slightly better for Democrats than what is currently being reported in the polls. however, the betting forums are predicting otherwise.
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steff
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Post by steff on Nov 6, 2016 14:42:05 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 6, 2016 15:48:49 GMT -5
Clinton might ask Obama to withdraw the nomination.
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steff
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Post by steff on Nov 6, 2016 15:55:15 GMT -5
Clinton might ask Obama to withdraw the nomination. This shows quite a split in the Republican party. One side is all about how they won't do anything, while another section is starting to consider doing their jobs. Isakson is the ONLY state race I have that I can vote against a Republican. I still intend to vote against him on Tuesday.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 6, 2016 20:29:40 GMT -5
this is getting really tight. what we are seeing is that some states are staying very stable (ie, PA), and others are moving SHARPLY to Republicans in the polling (MO, IN). this is changing the odds a lot. right now, it is 5:4 Democrats: Safe Democrat Seats = 49 Safe Republican Seats = 47 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = NONE Tossup = MO, NHLeans Republican = NC, IN(4) most likely outcomes: 50D, 50R 49D, 51R 51D, 49R 52D, 48R i would have been fairly confident calling this a week ago, but now it is too close to call. the odds have continued to move, and the Senate control is now TOSSUP. 50/50 odds. this is the best overview of what the pollsters think: www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html#other-forecastsnobody is calling it for the GOP, but almost half are calling it tossup. NOTE: since Senate polling lags national and presidential polling by about a week, i would GUESS that the situation is slightly better for Democrats than what is currently being reported in the polls. however, the betting forums are predicting otherwise. still slowly drifting toward GOP......... Safe Democrat Seats = 48Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = NVTossup = NH Leans Republican = MO, IN (4) most likely outcomes: 50D, 50R 49D, 51R 51D, 49R 48D, 52R
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Sam_2.0
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Post by Sam_2.0 on Nov 7, 2016 10:53:59 GMT -5
MO is making me sad. Blunt really REALLY needs to go.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Nov 7, 2016 11:15:18 GMT -5
the odds have continued to move, and the Senate control is now TOSSUP. 50/50 odds. this is the best overview of what the pollsters think: www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html#other-forecastsnobody is calling it for the GOP, but almost half are calling it tossup. NOTE: since Senate polling lags national and presidential polling by about a week, i would GUESS that the situation is slightly better for Democrats than what is currently being reported in the polls. however, the betting forums are predicting otherwise. still slowly drifting toward GOP......... Safe Democrat Seats = 48Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = NVTossup = NH Leans Republican = MO, IN (4) most likely outcomes: 50D, 50R 49D, 51R 51D, 49R 48D, 52Rfivethrityeight has GOP at 53.4% of keeping senate....
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Sam_2.0
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Post by Sam_2.0 on Nov 7, 2016 11:56:07 GMT -5
That's higher than they were earlier this morning. Ughghghghghg
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chiver78
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Post by chiver78 on Nov 9, 2016 17:33:30 GMT -5
Kelly Ayotte has conceded in NH. link
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rob base
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Post by rob base on Nov 9, 2016 21:13:31 GMT -5
And why on earth does anyone other than law enforcement / military need an AK?
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pappyjohn99
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Post by pappyjohn99 on Nov 9, 2016 21:17:56 GMT -5
And why on earth does anyone other than law enforcement / military need an AK?
Because shooting them is fun. And before Obama ammo was cheap.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Nov 9, 2016 22:01:17 GMT -5
And why on earth does anyone other than law enforcement / military need an AK? Who said "need" we say "Want"! What is the difference between say buying a high performance car that can do twice the max speed limit, If used could be dangerous! Or buying a high performance rifle, either one if used wrong are dangerous! We buy them because we can afford, and want them!
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