Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 24, 2016 18:08:14 GMT -5
I can respect, to a degree, the Senate holding hearings and voting down nominees until they get one that they feel is acceptable. That would be fulfilling their constitutional responsibility. But this total stonewall is ridiculous. That's the traditional way to get one that isn't (hopefully) too radical in either direction.
Refusing to consider any nominees at all is equivalent to holding your breath until you turn blue.
If only.
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 27, 2016 14:58:23 GMT -5
i don't know if i voiced my opinion on this lately, but it is "too close to call". if i were to place a bet TODAY, it would be a 50/50 split in the Senate.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 13, 2016 2:45:32 GMT -5
this is insanely stable. still running 50-50.
the three closest races are PA, NV, and NH.
if Dems win all three, they will be 51-49
if GOP wins all three, they will be 52-48
the most likely outcome is that Dems win 2, and split it 50/50.
the most likely outcome is that the party that wins the WH will win the Senate, as the vote will follow the party.
NV is closest, NH is second closest, PA is not that close.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 13, 2016 13:01:19 GMT -5
somewhat less likely than the WH, but yes.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 21, 2016 23:45:49 GMT -5
this is STILL too close to call. i think the safest prediction is STILL that the party that wins the WH will get 50 or more Senators, which is good for EITHER party.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 27, 2016 0:26:12 GMT -5
this is still too close to call, but as of today, i would rate the chances of the Democrats to take the Senate as slightly HIGHER than their ability to win the WH- and all due to one state: PA, where no less than THREE polls came out today that show the Democrat in that race on top.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 29, 2016 12:43:15 GMT -5
the Senate polls have been moving in favor of the Democrats in PA and NH for quite a while.
what is new, in the last week, is that they are also starting to move their way in NC, NV, and FL.
because of that fact, i am putting the control of the Senate at "leans Democrat" today, with the most likely outcome at 51:49 Democrat. again, the GOP will have to win all of the states above to gain certain control, and i just don't think that is a likely outcome, as of today. this is a more secure probability than the presidential election, but not by a long shot. i put the odds of the Democrats getting 50 or more seats at 2:1 as of today.
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Sam_2.0
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Post by Sam_2.0 on Sept 30, 2016 14:27:05 GMT -5
I just saw today that MO has moved from leans R to toss up. YAY! I really hope Kander gets in and ousts Blunt.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 1, 2016 2:43:23 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 3, 2016 23:42:05 GMT -5
this is a crucial election, and i think Ayotte just lost it:
she has been walking it back ever since she made it, but the first impression is always the most lasting.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 4, 2016 23:42:15 GMT -5
i just noticed this summary page: www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html#other-forecastsfive of the six forecasts that forecast using percentages have Democrats up right now. only HuffPo is saying the GOP holds. i have reviewed it race by race, and i think that Democrats hold a slight advantage, but that they are more likely at this point to gain the WH than the Senate. best odds are still on 50/50 split.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 4, 2016 23:51:48 GMT -5
this graph tells me that Democrats are going to take the Senate. they have been trending up all year long in the non-tossups, and up since July when the tossups are added in: www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Senate/sen_graph-2016.htmlone thing i don't like about this site, is that they only include the most recent poll, even if it is an outlier. for example, they are rating Illinois as "barely Democrat" even though Duckworth is pretty solidly ahead. unlike the presidential race, the trend for Senate seats tends to be very slow moving, and therefore more predictable.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2016 2:45:15 GMT -5
the movement is glacial on this side. it's all about these four:
Pennsylvania New Hampshire Nevada North Carolina
Cortez Maestro (D) is trending very badly in NV, with Republican Joe Heck ahead in the last TEN polls. that having been said, the last TWO polls show him only leading by 3%. the best quality poll shows Heck up 4.
the story is kindof the opposite in NC, where Burr (R) was clobbering Ross earlier, but is tied or trailing in four of the last (8) polls. the most recent TWO polls show Burr (again) ahead by an average of 4.5%.
PA is one of the two most interesting races. McGinty (D) has held a very narrow lead for months now, but never seems to be able to pull away. the latest two polls show Ross up, but they are of lower quality than the two previous polls which show Ross either tied or behind. this one is far too close to call, and will probably remain that way.
NH is trending well for Ayotte (R), who trailed BADLY on August 7th, and has been coming back ever since. Hassan has not polled well since then- never leading by more than 2%. whereas Ayotte has had two polls that showed her up over 5%, including the most recent poll that showed her up 6. the spread has been less than 1% since September 9th = too close to call. however, this is quite a volatile race, so i expect one of these two women to jump into the lead.
the Democrats would have to win all four to have 52 seats. i think that is unlikely. they need to win 2 to get to 50/50, and as of today, i would rate that as UNLIKELY. the polling is still very close, but the trend is very good for three of these four Republicans right now. the most recent straw polling data suggests that Democrats might come back, but Republicans have been gaining ground for months in most of these races.
this is far more interesting than the presidential race, at the moment.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Oct 11, 2016 7:10:59 GMT -5
I want the dems to take the Senate solely so we can get hearings on Supreme Court nominees. I'm incredibly pissed off about that.
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dezailoooooo
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Post by dezailoooooo on Oct 11, 2016 8:45:56 GMT -5
i like the Times coverage of the election, but i am reluctant to use them, as some will claim that their bias impacts their reporting on this subject. I grant u that they tend to lean left but on the major papers which ones don't..I have had recent experience with the New York Times...I was in a rehab setting for two months and my roommate had a friend who's wife was there too and every day he would drop off that days Times after he had read it and roommate nice enough to share it,, I found that every article, no matter what topic, was a thing of beauty...It would take me most of the day tp finish but besides rehabbing I had the time...After the rehabbing..there was a internet deal for I believe 5 bucks a week that gave me seven days..including the Sunday Times..believe that alone is over $5 at newstand....I finally stopped it as found didn't have time to do it justice but there is no other paper like the Times..Possible the Washington one but doubt better.... So don't be reluctant to use them as a source..Anyone who questioned them as a source is just one of those as we have seen here..have a pathological hard on against the Hillery blaming her for all things bad and evil from disease, Hurrican Mathew..Mets losing the playoff game...You get the picture...guilty on all counts no matter what..even bad things that happened before the lady was born...
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NastyWoman
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Post by NastyWoman on Oct 11, 2016 9:49:43 GMT -5
I want the dems to take the Senate solely so we can get hearings on Supreme Court nominees. I'm incredibly pissed off about that. So this begs the question: what if HRC wins (chances are...) and the Senste goes to the Dems? Will the siiting Reps all of a sudden decide that it really is not the next POTUS' job to fill the current opening on the SC and fast-track Obama's candidate? And, if so would voters remember this hypocrisy long enough to play a factor in the elections in 2 years?
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Oct 11, 2016 9:58:33 GMT -5
I don't know. My guess is "No, the American people won't remember."
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Oct 11, 2016 10:01:01 GMT -5
The ones that care already care, and the ones that want them to wait will agree with the hypocrisy.
Anyway, the words hypocrisy and Congress seem to be synonymous these days.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 11, 2016 10:03:12 GMT -5
I want the dems to take the Senate solely so we can get hearings on Supreme Court nominees. I'm incredibly pissed off about that. So this begs the question: what if HRC wins (chances are...) and the Senste goes to the Dems? Will the siiting Reps all of a sudden decide that it really is not the next POTUS' job to fill the current opening on the SC and fast-track Obama's candidate? And, if so would voters remember this hypocrisy long enough to play a factor in the elections in 2 years? September 6, 2016: 170-Plus Days And Counting: GOP Unlikely To End Supreme Court Blockade Soon
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Oct 11, 2016 10:05:44 GMT -5
It's day 209 since nomination according to scotusblog.com.
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bean29
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Post by bean29 on Oct 11, 2016 10:06:53 GMT -5
@djpolldancer, (and anyone else who is knowledgeable about the polls) please help me understand the following:
search.yahoo.com/search?p=johnson+feingold+senate+race&fr=yset_ie_syc_oracle&type=default
sorry, I can't cut and paste the poll results, but there are 4 polls listed:
Real Clear Politics Finegold +3.3 CBS News Finegold +3 Loras Johnson +5 Gravis Finegold +12
I would assume that RCP and CBS are not biased, I am unfamiliar with Loras and Gravis. Why should we trust them re: a Wisconsin Race? Is Loras biased one way or the other?
Looks like Marquette hasn't published Poll Results since late in September.
Thanks
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dezailoooooo
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Post by dezailoooooo on Oct 11, 2016 10:12:44 GMT -5
I want the dems to take the Senate solely so we can get hearings on Supreme Court nominees. I'm incredibly pissed off about that. So this begs the question: what if HRC wins (chances are...) and the Senste goes to the Dems? Will the siiting Reps all of a sudden decide that it really is not the next POTUS' job to fill the current opening on the SC and fast-track Obama's candidate? And, if so would voters remember this hypocrisy long enough to play a factor in the elections in 2 years? If they are smart..GOP..after Hillery stated publickly at the debate what she is looking for in the Supreme Court justices...the leadership of the current Senate , GOP, would be idiots if they don't hold quick hearings on current nomine and unless bad things regarding him come out, quickly ok him as a new Justice... I understand he is considered a moderate....possible a bit to the right but mostly a constitutionist and probably the best they will get as far as following their wants in a Justice especially for the next four years.. Even if Senate does not go to the Dems..there is no way Senate will be able to stall a nomination hearing or not ok a new Justice for four more years or even two years waiting for the midterms..
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chiver78
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Post by chiver78 on Oct 11, 2016 10:18:57 GMT -5
It's day 209 since nomination according to scotusblog.com. that is just embarrassing.
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Sam_2.0
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Post by Sam_2.0 on Oct 11, 2016 10:33:19 GMT -5
I hope that HRC wins and immediately nominates Obama for the SC. And if there's a Democrat senate, well....
Oh to watch all the Conservatives' heads spin!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2016 10:58:55 GMT -5
@djpolldancer, (and anyone else who is knowledgeable about the polls) please help me understand the following:
search.yahoo.com/search?p=johnson+feingold+senate+race&fr=yset_ie_syc_oracle&type=default
sorry, I can't cut and paste the poll results, but there are 4 polls listed:
Real Clear Politics Finegold +3.3 CBS News Finegold +3 Loras Johnson +5 Gravis Finegold +12
I would assume that RCP and CBS are not biased, I am unfamiliar with Loras and Gravis. Why should we trust them re: a Wisconsin Race? Is Loras biased one way or the other?
Looks like Marquette hasn't published Poll Results since late in September.
Thanks
Wisconsin is on my Safely Democrat list.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Oct 11, 2016 11:17:48 GMT -5
I hope that HRC wins and immediately nominates Obama for the SC. And if there's a Democrat senate, well....
Oh to watch all the Conservatives' heads spin! he'd need to recuse himself from certain cases. I don't recall him expressing interest in sitting on the Court but that doesn't mean a whole lot. The Court is back in session. They returned last week.
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bean29
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Post by bean29 on Oct 11, 2016 11:22:14 GMT -5
@djpolldancer, (and anyone else who is knowledgeable about the polls) please help me understand the following:
search.yahoo.com/search?p=johnson+feingold+senate+race&fr=yset_ie_syc_oracle&type=default
sorry, I can't cut and paste the poll results, but there are 4 polls listed:
Real Clear Politics Finegold +3.3 CBS News Finegold +3 Loras Johnson +5 Gravis Finegold +12
I would assume that RCP and CBS are not biased, I am unfamiliar with Loras and Gravis. Why should we trust them re: a Wisconsin Race? Is Loras biased one way or the other?
Looks like Marquette hasn't published Poll Results since late in September.
Thanks
Wisconsin is on my Safely Democrat list. Well thanks for that confirmation, I thought we were "safely republican" know that Walker and the State government has gerrymandered all our districts, but I was curious about why that Loras Poll was so out of sync with the others (for that matter that Gravis one is way out of line with the others), so when you look at the polls, and you tell us they were only surveying Republicans, or Babyboomers etc, where do you find that info, what criteria do you use to analyze the results?
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 11, 2016 11:24:55 GMT -5
Wisconsin is on my Safely Democrat list. Well thanks for that confirmation, I thought we were "safely republican" know that Walker and the State government has gerrymandered all our districts, ... You can't gerrymander US Senate seats. The lines are the state lines, now and forever.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2016 11:32:10 GMT -5
Wisconsin is on my Safely Democrat list. Well thanks for that confirmation, I thought we were "safely republican" know that Walker and the State government has gerrymandered all our districts, but I was curious about why that Loras Poll was so out of sync with the others (for that matter that Gravis one is way out of line with the others), so when you look at the polls, and you tell us they were only surveying Republicans, or Babyboomers etc, where do you find that info, what criteria do you use to analyze the results? i use poll quality, and i weight the polls on that basis. the Loras poll is a mid-grade poll. not bad, but far from the best. i have never put much stock in it. my favourite of the most recent polls is the Marquette. that was conducted three weeks ago and shows him +6%. the two most recent polls are no better than Loras, but no worse, and both show Feingold leading. Gravis (who i also don't like) shows him +11%. if you really like Feingold and really want him to win, i think you can rest easy at this point. the gerrymandering comment, it has no impact on statewide races. that is why although the House is not seriously up for grabs, the Senate absolutely IS.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Oct 11, 2016 11:34:11 GMT -5
Bean, I saw a few Ron Johnson signs in my up and down travels in state the last couple of months. Mostly around Sheboygan. Feingold yard signs outnumber him by like 4:1. Admittedly I was up and down on I45 and I43 to tourist areas.
There's a bunch of Ron Johnson signs on 92nd street in Tosa too. I haven't spent much time in the suburbs lately though.
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