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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2016 11:36:54 GMT -5
without diving deep into that campaign, i would predict that Russ will win by double digits.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 12, 2016 10:05:34 GMT -5
as expected, the national presidential polls this morning are showing a steady lead for Clinton of about 7%, which makes that race fairly uninteresting. but there is a huge bit of polling news HERE: www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2016_generic_congressional_vote-5279.htmlvery few people watch this number, but i can assure you it is very meaningful- and if the Reuters survey is correct, Democrats have not only gained 6% in the last week on congressional races in the generic ballot, but now lead by double digits. i have not seen numbers this high since 2008, and i think everyone here knows what that means. i need to check across the board to see how the number crunchers are processing this, but i think it is going to have a profound change in their outlook on congressional races, perhaps even throwing the House into contention.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 12, 2016 10:56:46 GMT -5
Well that is exactly what the mainstream GOP'ers have been worried about, and this seems to indicate that they are correct to be concerned. Amazing. The House? i still think it is a pipe dream. i put the odds at 1:3. but a week ago, i had the odds at 1:9. NOTE: i just looked at the Senate races, and so far, there is insufficient data to indicate ANY movement toward Democrats. all of the trendlines still favor the GOP, and the Senate is tossup. we will have to watch over the coming WEEKS to see how recent events are effecting things, but i have reason to suspect it will be significant.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Oct 12, 2016 10:57:18 GMT -5
Well that is exactly what the mainstream GOP'ers have been worried about, and this seems to indicate that they are correct to be concerned. Amazing. The House? Yah. The House. And I think they are serious. I just sent my contribution to NCEC (National Committee for an Effective Congess) towards that end.
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Post by kadee79 on Oct 12, 2016 14:56:17 GMT -5
I hope that HRC wins and immediately nominates Obama for the SC. And if there's a Democrat senate, well....
Oh to watch all the Conservatives' heads spin! he'd need to recuse himself from certain cases. I don't recall him expressing interest in sitting on the Court but that doesn't mean a whole lot. The Court is back in session. They returned last week. Obama has already said he is not interested. I think he wants out of Washington as soon as the youngest girl graduates. Not sure he will go back to Chicago, but I haven't heard that they have sold their house there yet.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 12, 2016 16:27:44 GMT -5
the movement is glacial on this side. it's all about these five: Pennsylvania - TOSSUP New Hampshire - TOSSUP Nevada - leans Republican North Carolina - leans Republican Missouri - leans Republican i added Missouri to the leaning spectrum today. also, i should note that there is some very shallow trending toward Democrats in the polls released in the last day. i can't really say if it is meaningful, yet. i should also note that the states that are leaning Republican are bordering on strong Republican. Democrats are going to have to get a good bounce in all three to get in the game.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 13, 2016 11:34:34 GMT -5
here is an interesting update from 538 on the Senate: fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-update-clinton-is-surging-but-down-ballot-democrats-are-losing-ground/?ex_cid=2016-forecastif you don't have time to read this, the basic gist is that Clinton's rally is not translating to the Senate. the polls are basically in a coma, if not trending Republican (as i have mentioned numerous times above). the Democrats have a very slight advantage, but it is basically a tossup. Silver also expressed some concern for Feingold in the article, for whoever asked me about that race. i differ from Silver in one respect. i think that the bubble for Clinton (or, more accurately, the pummeling of Trump) is likely to yield fruit for Democrats downballot. it just might take some time for all of this to sink in. of course, being cynical, i could say "why should it"?
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Phoenix84
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Post by Phoenix84 on Oct 13, 2016 12:55:30 GMT -5
here is an interesting update from 538 on the Senate: fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-update-clinton-is-surging-but-down-ballot-democrats-are-losing-ground/?ex_cid=2016-forecastif you don't have time to read this, the basic gist is that Clinton's rally is not translating to the Senate. the polls are basically in a coma, if not trending Republican (as i have mentioned numerous times above). the Democrats have a very slight advantage, but it is basically a tossup. Silver also expressed some concern for Feingold in the article, for whoever asked me about that race. i differ from Silver in one respect. i think that the bubble for Clinton (or, more accurately, the pummeling of Trump) is likely to yield fruit for Democrats downballot. it just might take some time for all of this to sink in. of course, being cynical, i could say "why should it"? In some ways, I think the Clinton Rally may help republicans running for senate offices. A lot of people out there want "balanced" government, and may be more inclined to vote for republicans as a "check" on Hillary Clinton.
This is especially true if it's clear before election day who will win.
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Oct 13, 2016 15:20:12 GMT -5
here is an interesting update from 538 on the Senate: fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-update-clinton-is-surging-but-down-ballot-democrats-are-losing-ground/?ex_cid=2016-forecastif you don't have time to read this, the basic gist is that Clinton's rally is not translating to the Senate. the polls are basically in a coma, if not trending Republican (as i have mentioned numerous times above). the Democrats have a very slight advantage, but it is basically a tossup. Silver also expressed some concern for Feingold in the article, for whoever asked me about that race. i differ from Silver in one respect. i think that the bubble for Clinton (or, more accurately, the pummeling of Trump) is likely to yield fruit for Democrats downballot. it just might take some time for all of this to sink in. of course, being cynical, i could say "why should it"? In some ways, I think the Clinton Rally may help republicans running for senate offices. A lot of people out there want "balanced" government, and may be more inclined to vote for republicans as a "check" on Hillary Clinton.
This is especially true if it's clear before election day who will win.
I wonder. I used to be a balance of power swing voter. That changed with Ted cruz' pompous and pointless gov. shutdown. I think kirk is one of the better gop senators, and I voted for him last time. Now, after the shutdown, the begahzi hearings, the refusal to do scotus hearings, I'm done.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 13, 2016 15:55:19 GMT -5
here is an interesting update from 538 on the Senate: fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-update-clinton-is-surging-but-down-ballot-democrats-are-losing-ground/?ex_cid=2016-forecastif you don't have time to read this, the basic gist is that Clinton's rally is not translating to the Senate. the polls are basically in a coma, if not trending Republican (as i have mentioned numerous times above). the Democrats have a very slight advantage, but it is basically a tossup. Silver also expressed some concern for Feingold in the article, for whoever asked me about that race. i differ from Silver in one respect. i think that the bubble for Clinton (or, more accurately, the pummeling of Trump) is likely to yield fruit for Democrats downballot. it just might take some time for all of this to sink in. of course, being cynical, i could say "why should it"? In some ways, I think the Clinton Rally may help republicans running for senate offices. A lot of people out there want "balanced" government, and may be more inclined to vote for republicans as a "check" on Hillary Clinton.
This is especially true if it's clear before election day who will win.
that is precisely what Silver says. edit: that having been said, he also openly acknowledges "linkage" between winning candidates. so that is the "tension" we are addressing, here.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 13, 2016 19:08:48 GMT -5
the FOX poll puts the generic ballot at +7, which is a big deal in these races.
Pennsylvania - TOSSUP New Hampshire - TOSSUP Nevada - TOSSUP North Carolina - leans Republican Missouri - leans Republican
all of these races are about 5% more likely Democrat due to this ONE poll. the difference is that PA and NH are now almost leaning Democrat, and Nevada is now a tossup.
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Oct 14, 2016 10:47:09 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 14, 2016 11:00:35 GMT -5
see post #77.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 15, 2016 13:06:35 GMT -5
post 77 still stands, but with regression on both sides. it is possible that all five states will be tossup this week.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 16, 2016 1:19:25 GMT -5
we got a bunch of new generic ballot stuff in today, and a favorable poll for Democrats in NV, so i have a few changes, here......
Pennsylvania - leans Democrat New Hampshire - TOSSUP Nevada - TOSSUP North Carolina - TOSSUP Missouri - TOSSUP
so, this happened a bit sooner than expected. all of these are tossup other than PA, where McGinty holds a narrow lead.
this is the high water mark for Democrats dating back to August. furthermore, the polling has been moving away from the GOP for about 9 days now. i didn't want to say anything before this, because 9 days is a very short trend. but it "looks" real now. it has been a slow steady climb from a near tie on October 6th to about a 2:1 likelihood that the Democrats will take 50+ seats.
excluding the above, it is D48, R47, so the GOP needs to win (4) if Clinton wins (ALL of the TOSSUPS listed above)
NOTE: there is no movement in the national polls. we got 2-3 new polls today, and all show basically the same thing we saw all week. however, the polls are not reflecting the latest allegations against Trump, yet. based on the betting market, there is not much anticipated movement. i have never seen the betting markets stay so even. there has been less than a 2% variation this week (83-84.4% Clinton). very quiet on the presidential race.
i really think that the action lies here. there are SEVEN races that are within 5% right now, and the five listed above are less than 2% lead for either candidate, three are less than 1%!!!
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Oct 16, 2016 9:46:22 GMT -5
fivethirtyeight had probability of dem control of senate at 62% last night, 65% this am?
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 16, 2016 11:00:24 GMT -5
fivethirtyeight had probability of dem control of senate at 62% last night, 65% this am? yep. it is solely due to the generic balloting, which has been quite favorable to Democrats this week. here are all of the other Senate forecasters combined into one chart: www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html#other-forecaststhe only one that doesn't show Democrats leading is Huffington, and it is all due to one state: Nevada. but Nevada is actually not that controversial. ONLY Huffington thinks the GOP will carry it. the real controversy is NH. and truthfully, with the polls as even as they have been there, i can understand that.
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Post by dezailoooooo on Oct 16, 2016 14:47:05 GMT -5
Well thanks for that confirmation, I thought we were "safely republican" know that Walker and the State government has gerrymandered all our districts, ... You can't gerrymander US Senate seats. The lines are the state lines, now and forever. Correct but the last few years the GOP have been the power in the States houses and there when it was time to redraw the lines for elections..thus it will almost be impossible to change the house unless a true landside..8/9$ or more favorable democratic and rarely does that happen..so when I hear GOP complaining my feeling thank the lord and sour grapes..their whining really gets on my mind as a bit much...
Their blatent jerrymandering is and was a disgrace..just look at how some lines are drawn.....courts should examine that and correct but since judges also benefit from the jerrymanding , don't expect that to happen...
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Oct 16, 2016 14:55:07 GMT -5
fivethirtyeight had probability of dem control of senate at 62% last night, 65% this am? yep. it is solely due to the generic balloting, which has been quite favorable to Democrats this week. here are all of the other Senate forecasters combined into one chart: www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html#other-forecaststhe only one that doesn't show Democrats leading is Huffington, and it is all due to one state: Nevada. but Nevada is actually not that controversial. ONLY Huffington thinks the GOP will carry it. the real controversy is NH. and truthfully, with the polls as even as they have been there, i can understand that. anything similar for the house?
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 16, 2016 15:07:01 GMT -5
yep. it is solely due to the generic balloting, which has been quite favorable to Democrats this week. here are all of the other Senate forecasters combined into one chart: www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html#other-forecaststhe only one that doesn't show Democrats leading is Huffington, and it is all due to one state: Nevada. but Nevada is actually not that controversial. ONLY Huffington thinks the GOP will carry it. the real controversy is NH. and truthfully, with the polls as even as they have been there, i can understand that. anything similar for the house? unfortunately, NO. i guess it is just too much data to track? but i can tell you that unless Clinton is +10% or more, the Democrats have no chance of taking back the house, imo. edit: Rukh O'Rorke - i found a few sites that cover it. this one is best: www.270towin.com/2016-house-election/it is rather amazing how much data it takes to make that map. they don't appear to have any graphs that chart seats on them, unfortunately.
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Post by kadee79 on Oct 16, 2016 20:08:10 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2016 11:29:08 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2016 14:26:58 GMT -5
we got a bunch of new generic ballot stuff in today, and a favorable poll for Democrats in NV, so i have a few changes, here...... Pennsylvania - leans Democrat New Hampshire - TOSSUP Nevada - TOSSUP North Carolina - TOSSUP Missouri - TOSSUP so, this happened a bit sooner than expected. all of these are tossup other than PA, where McGinty holds a narrow lead. this is the high water mark for Democrats dating back to August. furthermore, the polling has been moving away from the GOP for about 9 days now. i didn't want to say anything before this, because 9 days is a very short trend. but it "looks" real now. it has been a slow steady climb from a near tie on October 6th to about a 2:1 likelihood that the Democrats will take 50+ seats. excluding the above, it is D48, R47, so the GOP needs to win (4) if Clinton wins (ALL of the TOSSUPS listed above) NOTE: there is no movement in the national polls. we got 2-3 new polls today, and all show basically the same thing we saw all week. however, the polls are not reflecting the latest allegations against Trump, yet. based on the betting market, there is not much anticipated movement. i have never seen the betting markets stay so even. there has been less than a 2% variation this week (83-84.4% Clinton). very quiet on the presidential race. i really think that the action lies here. there are SEVEN races that are within 5% right now, and the five listed above are less than 2% lead for either candidate, three are less than 1%!!! we got a bunch of new polling in today, so i have a few updates, here...... Pennsylvania - leans Democrat New Hampshire - leans Democrat Nevada - leans Democrat North Carolina - TOSSUP Missouri - TOSSUP the biggest surprise here is NEVADA. Cortez-Maestro has not held a significant lead there since JULY. but the CNN poll has her +8. this is an A- pollster, so i suspect this is a very solid number, and IF it is, then Heck is on the ropes, there. so, again, the GOP needs four of these. but whereas last week, all four were tossup, this week the GOP trails in THREE of them, with very negative trending in all four. the decoupling that Nate Silver speculated about is not happening. at least not in the last (10) days. every day has been bad for Trump, and bad for the GOP. i suspect that these numbers will continue moving this direction. state polling is very slow, esp for down-ballot stuff. i also suspect that PA will move to strong Democrat this week. this is another high water mark for Democrats in the close Senate contests. it will be interesting to see if they can hang onto it. keep in mind that a 1% move back in the polls would put most of these races back on the GOP side, so these results are tenuous at best.
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Post by Sam_2.0 on Oct 17, 2016 15:21:46 GMT -5
Kander keeps getting closer in MO. And the Democrat nominee for governor is fairly popular in the KC area as a county prosecutor (he was a Republican at that time). I am hoping with Koster on the Democrat side that it gives Kander a boost too. As long as people don't confuse Koster with Kinder. Seriously - 3 guys running with 6 letter names starting with K and ending with -er. And all have name recognition in the state too. It's going to be confusing for some for sure!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2016 15:45:21 GMT -5
Kander keeps getting closer in MO. And the Democrat nominee for governor is fairly popular in the KC area as a county prosecutor (he was a Republican at that time). I am hoping with Koster on the Democrat side that it gives Kander a boost too. As long as people don't confuse Koster with Kinder. Seriously - 3 guys running with 6 letter names starting with K and ending with -er. And all have name recognition in the state too. It's going to be confusing for some for sure!
he was considered a huge longshot early on, but he is almost at 50/50 now.
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Sam_2.0
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Post by Sam_2.0 on Oct 17, 2016 15:48:45 GMT -5
Well, he has my vote.
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Post by emma1420 on Oct 17, 2016 15:54:14 GMT -5
Kander keeps getting closer in MO. And the Democrat nominee for governor is fairly popular in the KC area as a county prosecutor (he was a Republican at that time). I am hoping with Koster on the Democrat side that it gives Kander a boost too. As long as people don't confuse Koster with Kinder. Seriously - 3 guys running with 6 letter names starting with K and ending with -er. And all have name recognition in the state too. It's going to be confusing for some for sure!
I think Kander's strategy of making Roy Blunt look as if he's a career politician only interested in his own best interests is working well. I think the ad talking about Blunt putting in money into a bill for 9/11 victims is particularly good. If I lived on that side of the state line I'd vote for him. Sadly, I've got Jerry Moran who's got no real competition. But, at least Kevin Yoder is getting a run for his money this year.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2016 15:54:46 GMT -5
Well, he has my vote. ooooh!!! you are in a SWING STATE!!! i would love to be in one of those, once in my life.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2016 15:55:25 GMT -5
Kander keeps getting closer in MO. And the Democrat nominee for governor is fairly popular in the KC area as a county prosecutor (he was a Republican at that time). I am hoping with Koster on the Democrat side that it gives Kander a boost too. As long as people don't confuse Koster with Kinder. Seriously - 3 guys running with 6 letter names starting with K and ending with -er. And all have name recognition in the state too. It's going to be confusing for some for sure!
I think Kander's strategy of making Roy Blunt look as if he's a career politician only interested in his own best interests is working well. I think the ad talking about Blunt putting in money into a bill for 9/11 victims is particularly good. If I lived on that side of the state line I'd vote for him. Sadly, I've got Jerry Moran who's got no real competition. But, at least Kevin Yoder is getting a run for his money this year. is he the guy with the AR-15 commercial? if so, that helped, as well.
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 17, 2016 16:03:59 GMT -5
Well, he has my vote. ooooh!!! you are in a SWING STATE!!! i would love to be in one of those, once in my life. So would I.
Georgia is so predictably GOP neither campaign is even running ads on TV here much.
Although what am I bitching about? I hate those ads.
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