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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 29, 2016 20:24:03 GMT -5
today's update: Safe Democrat Seats = 49 Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = PA, MO Tossup = NV (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 50D, 50R 52D, 48R 53D, 47Ri have seen this before- in 2012. as Clinton loses votes, the leads widen in the Senate races. this is something Nate Silver talks about. he calls it something like "down ticket balancing". so, wheras Clinton's odds of winning have fallen about 5% in the last week, the odds of Democrats taking the Senate has risen about 3%. this also makes sense in that resources which were previously dedicated to winning the presidency are now being used to win Senate seats. i am not planning on adding to the presidential post, but it should be noted that all three tossups are now LEANING GOP: AZ, IA, and OH. of those three, i never thought Clinton had much of a chance of winning two of them. in addition, McMullin seems incapable of breaking 29% in Utah, so that is pretty much a 3 way race now, with all three candidates around 30%. impossible to call, but it looks like Trump might prevail. and, finally, Florida and NC are now LEANING DEMOCRAT, -vs- Safe Democrat. this was also predicted in the earlier models. they will be tight races. the only real surprise for me is how well Trump is doing in Ohio. wrap up: Clinton's lead is softer than her peak a couple of weeks ago, but nothing has really changed in the presidential race. Clinton's odds of winning the presidency were about 85% on October 17th, and now they are 80%. and, as i just pointed out, the trend is precisely the opposite in the Senate. the Senate was a dead heat on October 9th, and now Democrats have a 70% chance of winning it. judging by the trends, i would say that her odds of winning the presidency will fall to about the same level as Democrats winning the Senate by election day. but it is hard to say, because of poll lagging. there has been SIGNIFICANT movement in these races today. today's update: Safe Democrat Seats = 50 Safe Republican Seats = 47 IN PLAY STATESLeans Democrat = NH, NV Tossup = NONE Leans Republican = NC (4) most likely outcomes: 52D, 48R 51D, 49R 53D, 47R 50D, 50R Missouri and PA are now solid Democrat, NH is back to Leans Democrat, NV moves to Leans Democrat, NC moves from solid to Leans Republican. wow. this is almost the high water mark for Democrats this year. actually, because of the uncertainty about Clinton's emails, i would say that the Democrats are about as likely to win the Senate as of today as they are to win the WH. NOTE: this is the most significant change in one day i have seen since i started tracking the Senate. the states have not moved much in the last two days. the only movement is a small one in NH. Hassan's odds are 3:2 of winning, now, and the overall is approaching 3:1 Democrat. also, the splits have shifted slightly toward the GOP. (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 53D, 47R; 50D, 50R (tie)
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 30, 2016 14:58:12 GMT -5
i spent a little time looking at the NC race this morning.
last week, after looking at it, i concluded that Burr's (GOP) lead was going to likely hold up, and that the GOP would keep this seat, and i still think that. however, this morning, i am getting more doubtful about that conclusion. here is why.
the polls on that seat have actually been steadily tightening, based on demographic regression, early voting, etc.
in July, Burr had a commanding 7% lead, and this was a lock for the GOP. this lead was whittled all the way down to 0.1% on October 7th. since then, the polls have come in steadily but slightly favoring the GOP. Burr now leads by about 1%. but what catches my eye today is the overall trend. the fact that Burr has lost about 2% per month and now has a 1% lead with a week to go tells me that this race is probably closer than it seemed to me previously (which was "leaning GOP").
the reason i revisited it is that Clinton has been campaigning hard there, and her poll numbers show it. i have no idea if this will spill over into the downballot, but it can't hurt.
i am still not calling this a tossup. Burr is the favorite, by a fairly wide margin. but it could be very close, if the trend holds up.
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Post by sesfw on Oct 30, 2016 15:06:52 GMT -5
They do something so cringeworthy, and I wish I'd never voted for them
I feel the same about any political ....... rep or dem .......... I think common sense goes out the window as soon as they get to DC. Must be something in the water
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 31, 2016 10:38:24 GMT -5
there has been SIGNIFICANT movement in these races today. today's update: Safe Democrat Seats = 50 Safe Republican Seats = 47 IN PLAY STATESLeans Democrat = NH, NV Tossup = NONE Leans Republican = NC (4) most likely outcomes: 52D, 48R 51D, 49R 53D, 47R 50D, 50R Missouri and PA are now solid Democrat, NH is back to Leans Democrat, NV moves to Leans Democrat, NC moves from solid to Leans Republican. wow. this is almost the high water mark for Democrats this year. actually, because of the uncertainty about Clinton's emails, i would say that the Democrats are about as likely to win the Senate as of today as they are to win the WH. NOTE: this is the most significant change in one day i have seen since i started tracking the Senate. the states have not moved much in the last two days. the only movement is a small one in NH. Hassan's odds are 3:2 of winning, now, and the overall is approaching 3:1 Democrat. also, the splits have shifted slightly toward the GOP. (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 53D, 47R; 50D, 50R (tie) today's update: more very slow drift toward the GOP...... Safe Democrat Seats = 49 Safe Republican Seats = 47 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = NH, NV, MO Tossup = NONE Leans Republican = NC (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 53D, 47R ; 50D, 50R (Tied) so, MO is back into the leaning Democrat column today, and NC is skirting "Safe" for the GOP
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 1, 2016 9:15:52 GMT -5
the states have not moved much in the last two days. the only movement is a small one in NH. Hassan's odds are 3:2 of winning, now, and the overall is approaching 3:1 Democrat. also, the splits have shifted slightly toward the GOP. (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 53D, 47R; 50D, 50R (tie) today's update: more very slow drift toward the GOP...... Safe Democrat Seats = 49 Safe Republican Seats = 47 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = NH, NV, MO Tossup = NONE Leans Republican = NC (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 53D, 47R ; 50D, 50R (Tied) so, MO is back into the leaning Democrat column today, and NC is skirting "Safe" for the GOP senate is shifting back in favor of Democrats this morning. Nevada is moved to "Safe". Safe Democrat Seats = 50 Safe Republican Seats = 47 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = NH, MO Tossup = NONE Leans Republican = NC (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 50D, 50R 53D, 47R
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 1, 2016 9:40:43 GMT -5
incidentally, the odds of Clinton winning the WH and the Democrats winning the Senate are almost identical today. it is the first time this year that has happened.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Nov 1, 2016 13:09:31 GMT -5
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Post by dondub on Nov 1, 2016 13:17:46 GMT -5
"we still HAVE an opening on the Supreme Court".
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 1, 2016 19:25:10 GMT -5
today's update: more very slow drift toward the GOP...... Safe Democrat Seats = 49 Safe Republican Seats = 47 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = NH, NV, MO Tossup = NONE Leans Republican = NC (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 53D, 47R ; 50D, 50R (Tied) so, MO is back into the leaning Democrat column today, and NC is skirting "Safe" for the GOP senate is shifting back in favor of Democrats this morning. Nevada is moved to "Safe". Safe Democrat Seats = 50 Safe Republican Seats = 47 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = NH, MO Tossup = NONE Leans Republican = NC (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 50D, 50R 53D, 47R mixed bag today for both sides. Indiana is back in play, and NH and NC are out of play. Safe Democrat Seats = 50 Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = IN, MO Tossup = NONE Leans Republican = NONE (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 50D, 50R 53D, 47R
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Post by Sam_2.0 on Nov 2, 2016 9:51:45 GMT -5
Wisconsin Beth OMG. It's one thing to hold those views privately, but how freaking ballsy to just come out and say it? I wasn't leaning towards voting for the R candidate here, but now I am certainly not.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 2, 2016 10:28:07 GMT -5
i wish this shit mattered more to the Trump voters.
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Nov 2, 2016 10:45:52 GMT -5
i wish this shit mattered more to the Trump voters. for some of them, they are voting Trump because of the Court. They want another Scalia, which is the type he's saying he'll nominate. But they are not very happy about much else about him.
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Post by Sam_2.0 on Nov 2, 2016 10:48:33 GMT -5
The Trump voters I know are hoping & praying for someone more conservative than Scalia. And another opening soon in the court to appoint yet another conservative. Their hearts are good - they truly believe that overturning Roe v. Wade will be a good move and save lives. Unfortunately, I don't believe that it will and I fear more for the other rulings that could be overturned or upheld.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 2, 2016 11:02:34 GMT -5
The Trump voters I know are hoping & praying for someone more conservative than Scalia. And another opening soon in the court to appoint yet another conservative. Their hearts are good - they truly believe that overturning Roe v. Wade will be a good move and save lives. Unfortunately, I don't believe that it will and I fear more for the other rulings that could be overturned or upheld.
no, you mistook me. voting GOP means voting for impediment, in terms of the Senate. there is absolutely ZERO rhetoric on the left to indicate they would do the same.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 2, 2016 11:06:44 GMT -5
senate is shifting back in favor of Democrats this morning. Nevada is moved to "Safe". Safe Democrat Seats = 50 Safe Republican Seats = 47 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = NH, MO Tossup = NONE Leans Republican = NC (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 50D, 50R 53D, 47R mixed bag today for both sides. Indiana is back in play, and NH and NC are out of play. Safe Democrat Seats = 50 Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = IN, MO Tossup = NONE Leans Republican = NONE (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 50D, 50R 53D, 47R polls are leveling out today, with a very slight drift toward the GOP, but not enough to change things. i suspect that things are going to become very predictable in a day or two. odds of Democrats taking the Senate are 2:1. Safe Democrat Seats = 50 Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = IN, MO Tossup = NONE Leans Republican = NONE (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 50D, 50R 52D, 48R 49D, 51R
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Nov 2, 2016 11:09:51 GMT -5
The Trump voters I know are hoping & praying for someone more conservative than Scalia. And another opening soon in the court to appoint yet another conservative. Their hearts are good - they truly believe that overturning Roe v. Wade will be a good move and save lives. Unfortunately, I don't believe that it will and I fear more for the other rulings that could be overturned or upheld.
yeah. I think that's similar to what I'm hearing/seeing.
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Post by dezailoooooo on Nov 2, 2016 11:58:48 GMT -5
Agree with u that best if Dems just win the Senate...but also am thinking...American public , including many of the GOP leaning type are not looking forward to another Congress where the big thing of the opposition, no matter which party is another party of no and whoe's main purpose is like/similer to the last Congress..that one was keeping the POTUS to one term..in this new congress, the main purpose would be to make sure the new POTUS does not have a say in who is the new SCOTUS justice, also not as a constructive opposition but just a party of obstruction... If so, I predict that the Hillery will have a real leg up when running for a second term...and not only the Senate falls to the Dems but the House too.. Another loss by the pubs could mean the death of that party as a viable major political party..happened before..anyone remember the "whig " party...the Federalist party...the Jeffersonian...
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Nov 2, 2016 12:06:03 GMT -5
Personally, I don't want her to have both. I want SOME pushback and discussion from Congress.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 2, 2016 12:10:11 GMT -5
the worst shit that happened in the last (20) years happened when W had all three branches.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 2, 2016 12:34:59 GMT -5
mixed bag today for both sides. Indiana is back in play, and NH and NC are out of play. Safe Democrat Seats = 50 Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = IN, MO Tossup = NONE Leans Republican = NONE (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 50D, 50R 53D, 47R polls are leveling out today, with a very slight drift toward the GOP, but not enough to change things. i suspect that things are going to become very predictable in a day or two. odds of Democrats taking the Senate are 7:3. Safe Democrat Seats = 51Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = MO Tossup = NONE Leans Republican = NONE (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 50D, 50R 53D, 47Rupdates above/\ in bold. gotta go to work in 5 mins, so this is it for a bit! Indiana is back to Strong Democrat.
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Post by OldCoyote on Nov 3, 2016 7:24:32 GMT -5
the worst shit that happened in the last (20) years happened when W had all three branches. Obamacare comes to mind, some here in AZ are getting huge increases in premiums, like way above "AFFORDABLE"$$$$$ If The D's get the Senate, the "fix" for Obamacare will only make it worse, And, My second amendment rights will take a hit!
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 3, 2016 10:53:13 GMT -5
the worst shit that happened in the last (20) years happened when W had all three branches. Obamacare comes to mind, some here in AZ are getting huge increases in premiums, like way above "AFFORDABLE"$$$$$ If The D's get the Senate, the "fix" for Obamacare will only make it worse, And, My second amendment rights will take a hit! the Iraq War, the Great Recession, and $1.2T deficits all happened under W. and those are only the three WORST things.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 3, 2016 10:58:42 GMT -5
polls are leveling out today, with a very slight drift toward the GOP, but not enough to change things. i suspect that things are going to become very predictable in a day or two. odds of Democrats taking the Senate are 7:3. Safe Democrat Seats = 51Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = MO Tossup = NONE Leans Republican = NONE (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 50D, 50R 53D, 47Rupdates above/\ in bold. gotta go to work in 5 mins, so this is it for a bit! Indiana is back to Strong Democrat. whole bunch of slippage for Democrats in today's polls. here is where we stand today: Safe Democrat Seats = 50Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = IN, NH Tossup = MO Leans Republican = NONE (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 50D, 50R 52D, 48R 49D, 51R
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 3, 2016 11:00:32 GMT -5
One of the key differences is that the Dems actually want to govern, and are serious "grown ups" about the subject. Some members of the GOP are to, but there are also a sizeable minority of them - and I am talking about elected members of Congress- who just want to blow things up. Other than denying everything, they have no actual interest in governing. Whether you like government or not, it is a necessary evil. the great thing about Democracy, if you actually believe in the idea, is that you can change the situation to suit the interests of the electorate by voting, and working within that system. what we are seeing this cycle is a loss of faith in the system, and that leads almost invariably to terrible things.
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Post by dondub on Nov 3, 2016 11:11:02 GMT -5
And, My second amendment rights will take a hit!
No, they won't. But if you would like to tell us what you think will happen feel free. Remember...amendment rights take a hit is required.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 3, 2016 11:17:24 GMT -5
And, My second amendment rights will take a hit!
No, they won't. But if you would like to tell us what you think will happen feel free. Remember...amendment rights take a hit is required.
moreover, i can readily conjure up a scenario where OC's 2nd Amendment rights don't even matter under Trump.
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 3, 2016 11:18:31 GMT -5
the worst shit that happened in the last (20) years happened when W had all three branches. Obamacare comes to mind, some here in AZ are getting huge increases in premiums, like way above "AFFORDABLE"$$$$$ If The D's get the Senate, the "fix" for Obamacare will only make it worse, And, My second amendment rights will take a hit! At least under Trump YOUR Second Amendment rights won't take a hit (well unless you move to Chicago or he expands his call for gun confiscation) "You know, [the police are] proactive and if they see a person possibly with a gun or they think may have a gun, they will see the person and they'll look and they'll take the gun away," said Trump said. “They will stop, they will frisk, and they will take the gun away, and they don’t have anything to shoot with.” For the Record: Trump wants guns taken away — in Chicago, at least
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 3, 2016 16:31:34 GMT -5
updates above/\ in bold. gotta go to work in 5 mins, so this is it for a bit! Indiana is back to Strong Democrat. whole bunch of slippage for Democrats in today's polls. here is where we stand today: Safe Democrat Seats = 50 Safe Republican Seats = 47IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = IN, NH Tossup = MO Leans Republican = NC(4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 50D, 50R 52D, 48R 49D, 51R the odds actually shifted a bit more toward the GOP today, but NC also moved out of the Safe category. odds are now about 5:3 in favor of Democrats winning (50) or more seats, which is again TRAILING the presidential race (which is still 2:1. both were 2:1 for the last few days).
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Post by OldCoyote on Nov 3, 2016 20:59:01 GMT -5
And, My second amendment rights will take a hit!
No, they won't. But if you would like to tell us what you think will happen feel free. Remember...amendment rights take a hit is required.
I am a head of Hillary on this one, Just picked up my Bush Master XM15!!
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Post by dondub on Nov 3, 2016 23:26:40 GMT -5
And here I thought you were going to share exactly what Hillary was going to do to your 2nd amendment rights. Dang! Instead you bought more weaponry.
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