kadee79
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S.W. Ga., zone 8b, out in the boonies!
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Post by kadee79 on Oct 17, 2016 16:22:47 GMT -5
Hey Happy, you must be in the wrong part of the state. We are getting Hillary ads every day now on local TV...Albany station.
And she has invested a goodly sum in shoring up some of her offices here and doing other things. So there is more of a Democratic presence at least in my area than I've seen for quite a few years. There are even a few Hillary signs in the black sections of town...no whites are brave enough yet. And I don't think our Hispanics will say much either way, some are legal, some aren't...they don't want to draw any attention.
I think the numbers in Ga. may be a bit more interesting this time! ((fingers crossed))
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Sam_2.0
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Post by Sam_2.0 on Oct 17, 2016 16:24:22 GMT -5
I think Kander's strategy of making Roy Blunt look as if he's a career politician only interested in his own best interests is working well. I think the ad talking about Blunt putting in money into a bill for 9/11 victims is particularly good. If I lived on that side of the state line I'd vote for him. Sadly, I've got Jerry Moran who's got no real competition. But, at least Kevin Yoder is getting a run for his money this year. is he the guy with the AR-15 commercial? if so, that helped, as well. Yep, I loved that commercial he did
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2016 17:52:33 GMT -5
we got a bunch of new generic ballot stuff in today, and a favorable poll for Democrats in NV, so i have a few changes, here...... Pennsylvania - leans Democrat New Hampshire - TOSSUP Nevada - TOSSUP North Carolina - TOSSUP Missouri - TOSSUP so, this happened a bit sooner than expected. all of these are tossup other than PA, where McGinty holds a narrow lead. this is the high water mark for Democrats dating back to August. furthermore, the polling has been moving away from the GOP for about 9 days now. i didn't want to say anything before this, because 9 days is a very short trend. but it "looks" real now. it has been a slow steady climb from a near tie on October 6th to about a 2:1 likelihood that the Democrats will take 50+ seats. excluding the above, it is D48, R47, so the GOP needs to win (4) if Clinton wins (ALL of the TOSSUPS listed above) NOTE: there is no movement in the national polls. we got 2-3 new polls today, and all show basically the same thing we saw all week. however, the polls are not reflecting the latest allegations against Trump, yet. based on the betting market, there is not much anticipated movement. i have never seen the betting markets stay so even. there has been less than a 2% variation this week (83-84.4% Clinton). very quiet on the presidential race. i really think that the action lies here. there are SEVEN races that are within 5% right now, and the five listed above are less than 2% lead for either candidate, three are less than 1%!!! we got a bunch of new polling in today, so i have a few updates, here...... Pennsylvania - leans Democrat New Hampshire - leans Democrat Nevada - leans Democrat North Carolina - TOSSUP Missouri - TOSSUP the biggest surprise here is NEVADA. Cortez-Maestro has not held a significant lead there since JULY. but the CNN poll has her +8. this is an A- pollster, so i suspect this is a very solid number, and IF it is, then Heck is on the ropes, there. so, again, the GOP needs four of these. but whereas last week, all four were tossup, this week the GOP trails in THREE of them, with very negative trending in all four. the decoupling that Nate Silver speculated about is not happening. at least not in the last (10) days. every day has been bad for Trump, and bad for the GOP. i suspect that these numbers will continue moving this direction. state polling is very slow, esp for down-ballot stuff. i also suspect that PA will move to strong Democrat this week. this is another high water mark for Democrats in the close Senate contests. it will be interesting to see if they can hang onto it. keep in mind that a 1% move back in the polls would put most of these races back on the GOP side, so these results are tenuous at best. another very favorable poll for Democrats today. Missouri is now leaning Democrat: Pennsylvania - leans Democrat New Hampshire - leans Democrat Nevada - leans Democrat North Carolina - TOSSUP Missouri - leans Democrat Safe Dem Seats = 48 Safe GOP Seats = 47 Polls Plus = 52 Seats Dem Polls Only = 52.5 Seats (NC is 50/50) Dem NowCast = 53 Seats Dem
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 20, 2016 12:29:28 GMT -5
we got a bunch of new polling in today, so i have a few updates, here...... Pennsylvania - leans Democrat New Hampshire - leans Democrat Nevada - leans Democrat North Carolina - TOSSUP Missouri - TOSSUP the biggest surprise here is NEVADA. Cortez-Maestro has not held a significant lead there since JULY. but the CNN poll has her +8. this is an A- pollster, so i suspect this is a very solid number, and IF it is, then Heck is on the ropes, there. so, again, the GOP needs four of these. but whereas last week, all four were tossup, this week the GOP trails in THREE of them, with very negative trending in all four. the decoupling that Nate Silver speculated about is not happening. at least not in the last (10) days. every day has been bad for Trump, and bad for the GOP. i suspect that these numbers will continue moving this direction. state polling is very slow, esp for down-ballot stuff. i also suspect that PA will move to strong Democrat this week. this is another high water mark for Democrats in the close Senate contests. it will be interesting to see if they can hang onto it. keep in mind that a 1% move back in the polls would put most of these races back on the GOP side, so these results are tenuous at best. another very favorable poll for Democrats today. Missouri is now leaning Democrat: Pennsylvania - leans Democrat New Hampshire - leans Democrat Nevada - leans Democrat North Carolina - TOSSUP Missouri - leans Democrat Safe Dem Seats = 48 Safe GOP Seats = 47 Polls Plus = 52 Seats Dem Polls Only = 52.5 Seats (NC is 50/50) Dem NowCast = 53 Seats Dem here is the current standing of the close races in the Senate. Pennsylvania - TOSSUP New Hampshire - leans Democrat Nevada - leans Democrat North Carolina - TOSSUP Missouri - leans Democrat Safe Dem Seats = 48 Safe GOP Seats = 47 PA is back to Tossup. two recent polls show the Republican leading. Democrats have been unable to put this away. the current most likely outcome is 51 seats for Democrats, followed by 52, 53, and 50, in that order. the odds of it being one of those four possibilities is approximately 9:7 (just north of 50/50).
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NastyWoman
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Post by NastyWoman on Oct 20, 2016 12:38:04 GMT -5
Well, he has my vote. ooooh!!! you are in a SWING STATE!!! i would love to be in one of those, once in my life. Yet I am happy not to be in one,as a PR I am not eligible to vote but my state goes my way anyway
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 20, 2016 15:27:45 GMT -5
there has been some mild shifting in the polls again today. here is the new expectations for Senate 2017 breakdown. the odds of each of these events is >12%
D52, R48 D51, R49 D50, R50 D53, R47
total odds = 9:7 of these four.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 20, 2016 19:24:45 GMT -5
another very favorable poll for Democrats today. Missouri is now leaning Democrat: Pennsylvania - leans Democrat New Hampshire - leans Democrat Nevada - leans Democrat North Carolina - TOSSUP Missouri - leans Democrat Safe Dem Seats = 48 Safe GOP Seats = 47 Polls Plus = 52 Seats Dem Polls Only = 52.5 Seats (NC is 50/50) Dem NowCast = 53 Seats Dem here is the current standing of the close races in the Senate. Pennsylvania - TOSSUP Nevada - leans Democrat North Carolina - TOSSUP Missouri - leans Democrat Safe Dem Seats = 49 Safe GOP Seats = 47 Hassan just got a very favorable poll result from a solid pollster for NH, so i am taking NH off the board. it is safely Democrat for the moment. so, the GOP has to win all four of those contests to control the Senate. i put the odds of that a 1:3.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2016 10:58:13 GMT -5
here is the current standing of the close races in the Senate. Pennsylvania - TOSSUP Nevada - leans Democrat North Carolina - leans Republican Missouri - leans Democrat Safe Dem Seats = 49 Safe GOP Seats = 47 Hassan just got a very favorable poll result from a solid pollster for NH, so i am taking NH off the board. it is safely Democrat for the moment. so, the GOP has to win all four of those contests to control the Senate. i put the odds of that a 1:3. Burr has a good solid lead in NC now, so i am putting that one to leans GOP. GOP odds are now 2:5 there has been some narrowing in the generic ballot polls, so the Senate is drifting back toward the GOP. here is the current most likely list for number of seats (four most likely scenarios) 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 50D, 50R 53D, 47R
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 23, 2016 10:31:26 GMT -5
Hassan just got a very favorable poll result from a solid pollster for NH, so i am taking NH off the board. it is safely Democrat for the moment. so, the GOP has to win all four of those contests to control the Senate. i put the odds of that a 1:3. Burr has a good solid lead in NC now, so i am putting that one to leans GOP. GOP odds are now 2:5 there has been some narrowing in the generic ballot polls, so the Senate is drifting back toward the GOP. here is the current most likely list for number of seats (four most likely scenarios) 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 50D, 50R 53D, 47R Democrats odds of taking the Senate continue to drift lower. as of this morning, they are at about 7:3 here are the four most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 50D, 50R 52D, 48R 51R, 49DNOTE: this is the first time that a Republican majority has made the survey in a couple of weeks.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2016 21:45:22 GMT -5
Burr has a good solid lead in NC now, so i am putting that one to leans GOP. GOP odds are now 2:5 there has been some narrowing in the generic ballot polls, so the Senate is drifting back toward the GOP. here is the current most likely list for number of seats (four most likely scenarios) 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 50D, 50R 53D, 47R Democrats odds of taking the Senate continue to drift lower. as of this morning, they are at about 7:3 here are the four most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 50D, 50R 52D, 48R 51R, 49DNOTE: this is the first time that a Republican majority has made the survey in a couple of weeks. Pennsylvania - leans Democrat Nevada - leans Democrat North Carolina - leans Republican Missouri - leans Democrat Safe Dem Seats = 49 Safe GOP Seats = 47 52D, 48R 51D, 49R 53D, 47R50D, 50R i am tightening my standards for leaners tomorrow, given the proximity to the election. that will probably throw NC to the GOP, and MO to the Democrats, leaving only the two tighest races, PA and NV, still in play........
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 25, 2016 10:11:03 GMT -5
Democrats odds of taking the Senate continue to drift lower. as of this morning, they are at about 7:3 here are the four most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 50D, 50R 52D, 48R 51R, 49DNOTE: this is the first time that a Republican majority has made the survey in a couple of weeks. Pennsylvania - leans Democrat Nevada - leans Democrat North Carolina - leans Republican Missouri - leans Democrat Safe Dem Seats = 49 Safe GOP Seats = 47 52D, 48R 51D, 49R 53D, 47R50D, 50R i am tightening my standards for leaners tomorrow, given the proximity to the election. that will probably throw NC to the GOP, and MO to the Democrats, leaving only the two tighest races, PA and NV, still in play........ ok, here we go with what will probably be daily updating, here. having given up on the presidential race, i am going to focus my attention on the Senate. so, i am taking NC and MO off the list today. Democrats can't seem to get past Burr in NC. he is not really trending well, there, but he is not really trending badly, either. it will be close, but i think he keeps his seat. the outlook is much less certain in MO. Kander has only lead there for about a week, and the polling is sparse, as nobody really thought this would be a race. but he is a fresh new face, and has run a very good campaign there, so i think he is going to take it. this puts the Democrats at 50 seats, which, providing that they clear the hurdle with Clinton, will secure the Senate on the vote of Tim Kaine. this brings us to the two remaining seats: Pennsylvania - leans Democrat Nevada - leans Democrat Nevada would seem to be a shoo-in for Democrats, but it has not proven so. this race has been tight all year, with neither candidate leading by more than 2% since AUGUST 1ST, and the leader changing SIX TIMES. right now, the Democrat leads, but it is so close that it is unlikely this is decided this week. i might not be able to call it AT ALL. Pennsylvania is another state that should have been easy for Democrats, but the story here is a bit different. Toomey is a tough competitor, and has stayed in it, despite the fact that McGinty has lead (albeit only slightly) since AUGUST 8th. further confusing the matter is the fact that Quinnipiac, an A- rated pollster, has had Toomey ahead since August, and by as much as 7%. we will have to wait and see how the high rated pollsters put this race in the closing weeks, but this one is also too close to call. so. this is where this leaves us, today: Safe Dem Seats = 50 Safe GOP Seats = 48 (4) most likely outcomes: 52D, 48R; 51D, 49R ( precisely the same odds) 50D, 50R 53D, 47R i have no idea how much of a majority that Democrats have, and their margin of safety here is basically nil. but i think i can safely say this: it would take something bad in at least (2) races to change their fortunes right now, and that is highly unlikely. it seems far more probable that Democrats will get at least (50) seats, which is what i am currently calling "likely".
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 25, 2016 10:14:48 GMT -5
for those of you looking further down in the races for ones that might be competitive in a landslide, i would guess that Florida and Kentucky are the most vulnerable ones, each at about 3:1 GOP favorites currently. if this sounds familiar from the presidential thread, it should. it would take a landslide on the order of +200EV for Democrats to move these states off the table for the GOP.
the House is about the same odds. the GOP is 3:1 favorite. so, again, i don't think it is all that interesting, unless a landslide is developing, and that should be obvious to everyone. but with Clinton's negatives as high as they are, i seriously doubt this is in the offing for Democrats.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Oct 25, 2016 11:29:00 GMT -5
<Beth notes that it's going to be really hard to keep her fingers crossed and type for the 2 weeks...>
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 25, 2016 11:31:50 GMT -5
<Beth notes that it's going to be really hard to keep her fingers crossed and type for the 2 weeks...> Tried it. You're right.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 25, 2016 16:06:58 GMT -5
Pennsylvania - leans Democrat Nevada - leans Democrat North Carolina - leans Republican Missouri - leans Democrat Safe Dem Seats = 49 Safe GOP Seats = 47 52D, 48R 51D, 49R 53D, 47R50D, 50R i am tightening my standards for leaners tomorrow, given the proximity to the election. that will probably throw NC to the GOP, and MO to the Democrats, leaving only the two tighest races, PA and NV, still in play........ ok, here we go with what will probably be daily updating, here. having given up on the presidential race, i am going to focus my attention on the Senate. so, i am taking NC and MO off the list today. Democrats can't seem to get past Burr in NC. he is not really trending well, there, but he is not really trending badly, either. it will be close, but i think he keeps his seat. the outlook is much less certain in MO. Kander has only lead there for about a week, and the polling is sparse, as nobody really thought this would be a race. but he is a fresh new face, and has run a very good campaign there, so i think he is going to take it. this puts the Democrats at 50 seats, which, providing that they clear the hurdle with Clinton, will secure the Senate on the vote of Tim Kaine. this brings us to the two remaining seats: Pennsylvania - leans Democrat Nevada - leans Democrat Nevada would seem to be a shoo-in for Democrats, but it has not proven so. this race has been tight all year, with neither candidate leading by more than 2% since AUGUST 1ST, and the leader changing SIX TIMES. right now, the Democrat leads, but it is so close that it is unlikely this is decided this week. i might not be able to call it AT ALL. Pennsylvania is another state that should have been easy for Democrats, but the story here is a bit different. Toomey is a tough competitor, and has stayed in it, despite the fact that McGinty has lead (albeit only slightly) since AUGUST 8th. further confusing the matter is the fact that Quinnipiac, an A- rated pollster, has had Toomey ahead since August, and by as much as 7%. we will have to wait and see how the high rated pollsters put this race in the closing weeks, but this one is also too close to call. so. this is where this leaves us, today: Safe Dem Seats = 50 Safe GOP Seats = 48 (4) most likely outcomes: 52D, 48R; 51D, 49R ( precisely the same odds) 50D, 50R 53D, 47R i have no idea how much of a majority that Democrats have, and their margin of safety here is basically nil. but i think i can safely say this: it would take something bad in at least (2) races to change their fortunes right now, and that is highly unlikely. it seems far more probable that Democrats will get at least (50) seats, which is what i am currently calling "likely". Democrats got some TERRIBLE generic balloting today. it basically shows a tie, which is about 3-4% below all previous polling. on the strength of that data alone, i am putting NH back into play, and revising as follows: Leans Democrat = NH, NV Tossup = PA Safe Dem Seats = 49 Safe GOP Seats = 48 (4) most likely outcomes: 50D, 50R 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 51R, 49D
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 25, 2016 23:06:55 GMT -5
ok, here we go with what will probably be daily updating, here. having given up on the presidential race, i am going to focus my attention on the Senate. so, i am taking NC and MO off the list today. Democrats can't seem to get past Burr in NC. he is not really trending well, there, but he is not really trending badly, either. it will be close, but i think he keeps his seat. the outlook is much less certain in MO. Kander has only lead there for about a week, and the polling is sparse, as nobody really thought this would be a race. but he is a fresh new face, and has run a very good campaign there, so i think he is going to take it. this puts the Democrats at 50 seats, which, providing that they clear the hurdle with Clinton, will secure the Senate on the vote of Tim Kaine. this brings us to the two remaining seats: Pennsylvania - leans Democrat Nevada - leans Democrat Nevada would seem to be a shoo-in for Democrats, but it has not proven so. this race has been tight all year, with neither candidate leading by more than 2% since AUGUST 1ST, and the leader changing SIX TIMES. right now, the Democrat leads, but it is so close that it is unlikely this is decided this week. i might not be able to call it AT ALL. Pennsylvania is another state that should have been easy for Democrats, but the story here is a bit different. Toomey is a tough competitor, and has stayed in it, despite the fact that McGinty has lead (albeit only slightly) since AUGUST 8th. further confusing the matter is the fact that Quinnipiac, an A- rated pollster, has had Toomey ahead since August, and by as much as 7%. we will have to wait and see how the high rated pollsters put this race in the closing weeks, but this one is also too close to call. so. this is where this leaves us, today: Safe Dem Seats = 50 Safe GOP Seats = 48 (4) most likely outcomes: 52D, 48R; 51D, 49R ( precisely the same odds) 50D, 50R 53D, 47R i have no idea how much of a majority that Democrats have, and their margin of safety here is basically nil. but i think i can safely say this: it would take something bad in at least (2) races to change their fortunes right now, and that is highly unlikely. it seems far more probable that Democrats will get at least (50) seats, which is what i am currently calling "likely". Democrats got some TERRIBLE generic balloting today. it basically shows a tie, which is about 3-4% below all previous polling. on the strength of that data alone, i am putting NH back into play, and revising as follows: Leans Democrat = NH, NV Tossup = PA Safe Dem Seats = 49 Safe GOP Seats = 48 (4) most likely outcomes: 50D, 50R 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 51R, 49Danother update, and another favorable one for the GOP. Missouri is now off the safe Democrat list. Safe Democrat Seats = 48 Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATESLeans Democrat = NH, NV, MO Tossup = PA (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 50D, 50R 52D, 48R 51R, 49D the poll movement is definitely back in the direction of the GOP. this is actually reflected at the national level, as well, but not enough to dredge up that thread.
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lynnerself
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Post by lynnerself on Oct 26, 2016 1:53:08 GMT -5
The problem is that even if Democrats take the Senate, they will probably lose it again in 2 years. I'm not sure how much will get done in that time or how many Supreme Court seats will come open.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Oct 26, 2016 6:43:06 GMT -5
No. No. No. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. I need hearings. I need the two oldest judges to announce their are stepping down once Hillary and the Senate are safe. I need Justices nominated and heard and appointed.
Beth stalks off to sit with her fingers in her ears and sing Lalalalalalalalalalalala until Nov. 9th.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 26, 2016 10:46:27 GMT -5
The problem is that even if Democrats take the Senate, they will probably lose it again in 2 years. I'm not sure how much will get done in that time or how many Supreme Court seats will come open. that might be true, but it is just as true that they will likely get it back in (4).
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 26, 2016 10:55:08 GMT -5
the situation this morning is exactly the same as yesterday. no new news to tell. for you worried Democrats, i still have Dems at 2:1 favorite to take the Senate, despite the recent setbacks. it is just going to be a steeper climb.
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dezailoooooo
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Post by dezailoooooo on Oct 26, 2016 11:35:38 GMT -5
The problem is that even if Democrats take the Senate, they will probably lose it again in 2 years. I'm not sure how much will get done in that time or how many Supreme Court seats will come open. that might be true, but it is just as true that they will likely get it back in (4). You take what u get when u get it..as far as the future, when it comes about u do the best u can and so many times work out out in your favor ...
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 26, 2016 19:30:00 GMT -5
Democrats got some TERRIBLE generic balloting today. it basically shows a tie, which is about 3-4% below all previous polling. on the strength of that data alone, i am putting NH back into play, and revising as follows: Leans Democrat = NH, NV Tossup = PA Safe Dem Seats = 49 Safe GOP Seats = 48 (4) most likely outcomes: 50D, 50R 51D, 49R 52D, 48R 51R, 49Danother update, and another favorable one for the GOP. Missouri is now off the safe Democrat list. Safe Democrat Seats = 48 Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATESLeans Democrat = NH, NV, MO Tossup = PA (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 50D, 50R 52D, 48R 51R, 49D the poll movement is definitely back in the direction of the GOP. this is actually reflected at the national level, as well, but not enough to dredge up that thread. nothing has changed, in terms of the odds and the likely outcomes, but Nevada is slightly less likely to go Democratic due to a poll that shows Heck +7%, and Hassan got a favorable poll, but not enough to put her into the "Safe" category: IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = NH, MO Tossup = PA, NV
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 27, 2016 11:10:09 GMT -5
another update, and another favorable one for the GOP. Missouri is now off the safe Democrat list. Safe Democrat Seats = 48 Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATESLeans Democrat = NH, NV, MO Tossup = PA (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 50D, 50R 52D, 48R 51R, 49D the poll movement is definitely back in the direction of the GOP. this is actually reflected at the national level, as well, but not enough to dredge up that thread. nothing has changed, in terms of the odds and the likely outcomes, but Nevada is slightly less likely to go Democratic due to a poll that shows Heck +7%, and Hassan got a favorable poll, but not enough to put her into the "Safe" category: IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = NH, MO Tossup = PA, NV i am taking NH back to "Safe Democrat" again, today. Safe Democrat Seats = 49 Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = MO Tossup = PA, NV (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 50D, 50R 52D, 48R 51R, 49D there have been some minor variations on this, but it has been pretty stable. there is reason to be suspicious about the safety of the Missouri seat for Democrats. polling has been SPARSE in that state, and although what polling there HAS been has been favorable for the Democrat, you have to remember: this IS Missouri. it is not really a purple state. it is pretty red. but the GOP has to win all three of the in-play states to prevail.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2016 2:44:34 GMT -5
nothing has changed, in terms of the odds and the likely outcomes, but Nevada is slightly less likely to go Democratic due to a poll that shows Heck +7%, and Hassan got a favorable poll, but not enough to put her into the "Safe" category: IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = NH, MO Tossup = PA, NV i am taking NH back to "Safe Democrat" again, today. Safe Democrat Seats = 49 Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = MO Tossup = PA, NV (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 50D, 50R 52D, 48R 51R, 49D there have been some minor variations on this, but it has been pretty stable. there is reason to be suspicious about the safety of the Missouri seat for Democrats. polling has been SPARSE in that state, and although what polling there HAS been has been favorable for the Democrat, you have to remember: this IS Missouri. it is not really a purple state. it is pretty red. but the GOP has to win all three of the in-play states to prevail. today's update: Safe Democrat Seats = 49 Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATESLeans Democrat = PA Tossup = MO, NV (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 50D, 50R 52D, 48R 51R, 49D Missouri and PA have traded places. everything else is pretty much the same. odds remain D2:R1, which is what you would expect from a random coin toss, with three states in play, and one state to win.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 28, 2016 6:59:38 GMT -5
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Wisconsin Beth
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No, we don't walk away. But when we're holding on to something precious, we run.
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Oct 28, 2016 7:11:56 GMT -5
Wow.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Oct 28, 2016 8:25:51 GMT -5
this is what has happened with every republican I have ever voted for, btw, @djadvocate
They do something so cringworthy, and I wish I'd never voted for them
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2016 10:21:10 GMT -5
he was toast BEFORE this.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2016 10:30:28 GMT -5
i am taking NH back to "Safe Democrat" again, today. Safe Democrat Seats = 49 Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = MO Tossup = PA, NV (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 50D, 50R 52D, 48R 51R, 49D there have been some minor variations on this, but it has been pretty stable. there is reason to be suspicious about the safety of the Missouri seat for Democrats. polling has been SPARSE in that state, and although what polling there HAS been has been favorable for the Democrat, you have to remember: this IS Missouri. it is not really a purple state. it is pretty red. but the GOP has to win all three of the in-play states to prevail. today's update: Safe Democrat Seats = 49 Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATESLeans Democrat = PA Tossup = MO, NV (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 50D, 50R 52D, 48R 51R, 49D Missouri and PA have traded places. everything else is pretty much the same. odds remain D2:R1, which is what you would expect from a random coin toss, with three states in play, and one state to win. today's update: Safe Democrat Seats = 49 Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = PA, MO Tossup = NV (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 50D, 50R 52D, 48R 53D, 47Ri have seen this before- in 2012. as Clinton loses votes, the leads widen in the Senate races. this is something Nate Silver talks about. he calls it something like "down ticket balancing". so, wheras Clinton's odds of winning have fallen about 5% in the last week, the odds of Democrats taking the Senate has risen about 3%. this also makes sense in that resources which were previously dedicated to winning the presidency are now being used to win Senate seats. i am not planning on adding to the presidential post, but it should be noted that all three tossups are now LEANING GOP: AZ, IA, and OH. of those three, i never thought Clinton had much of a chance of winning two of them. in addition, McMullin seems incapable of breaking 29% in Utah, so that is pretty much a 3 way race now, with all three candidates around 30%. impossible to call, but it looks like Trump might prevail. and, finally, Florida and NC are now LEANING DEMOCRAT, -vs- Safe Democrat. this was also predicted in the earlier models. they will be tight races. the only real surprise for me is how well Trump is doing in Ohio. wrap up: Clinton's lead is softer than her peak a couple of weeks ago, but nothing has really changed in the presidential race. Clinton's odds of winning the presidency were about 85% on October 17th, and now they are 80%. and, as i just pointed out, the trend is precisely the opposite in the Senate. the Senate was a dead heat on October 9th, and now Democrats have a 70% chance of winning it. judging by the trends, i would say that her odds of winning the presidency will fall to about the same level as Democrats winning the Senate by election day. but it is hard to say, because of poll lagging.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2016 17:11:15 GMT -5
today's update: Safe Democrat Seats = 49 Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATESLeans Democrat = PA Tossup = MO, NV (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 50D, 50R 52D, 48R 51R, 49D Missouri and PA have traded places. everything else is pretty much the same. odds remain D2:R1, which is what you would expect from a random coin toss, with three states in play, and one state to win. today's update: Safe Democrat Seats = 49 Safe Republican Seats = 48 IN PLAY STATES Leans Democrat = PA, MO Tossup = NV (4) most likely outcomes: 51D, 49R 50D, 50R 52D, 48R 53D, 47Ri have seen this before- in 2012. as Clinton loses votes, the leads widen in the Senate races. this is something Nate Silver talks about. he calls it something like "down ticket balancing". so, wheras Clinton's odds of winning have fallen about 5% in the last week, the odds of Democrats taking the Senate has risen about 3%. this also makes sense in that resources which were previously dedicated to winning the presidency are now being used to win Senate seats. i am not planning on adding to the presidential post, but it should be noted that all three tossups are now LEANING GOP: AZ, IA, and OH. of those three, i never thought Clinton had much of a chance of winning two of them. in addition, McMullin seems incapable of breaking 29% in Utah, so that is pretty much a 3 way race now, with all three candidates around 30%. impossible to call, but it looks like Trump might prevail. and, finally, Florida and NC are now LEANING DEMOCRAT, -vs- Safe Democrat. this was also predicted in the earlier models. they will be tight races. the only real surprise for me is how well Trump is doing in Ohio. wrap up: Clinton's lead is softer than her peak a couple of weeks ago, but nothing has really changed in the presidential race. Clinton's odds of winning the presidency were about 85% on October 17th, and now they are 80%. and, as i just pointed out, the trend is precisely the opposite in the Senate. the Senate was a dead heat on October 9th, and now Democrats have a 70% chance of winning it. judging by the trends, i would say that her odds of winning the presidency will fall to about the same level as Democrats winning the Senate by election day. but it is hard to say, because of poll lagging. there has been SIGNIFICANT movement in these races today. today's update: Safe Democrat Seats = 50 Safe Republican Seats = 47 IN PLAY STATESLeans Democrat = NH, NV Tossup = NONE Leans Republican = NC (4) most likely outcomes: 52D, 48R 51D, 49R 53D, 47R 50D, 50R Missouri and PA are now solid Democrat, NH is back to Leans Democrat, NV moves to Leans Democrat, NC moves from solid to Leans Republican. wow. this is almost the high water mark for Democrats this year. actually, because of the uncertainty about Clinton's emails, i would say that the Democrats are about as likely to win the Senate as of today as they are to win the WH. NOTE: this is the most significant change in one day i have seen since i started tracking the Senate.
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