Poverty and the roll of the dice

[Opti]

This is an old article, from 2016, but I feel it is still relevant even if the percentages have migrated to whatever they are now.
Given that part of our voting population and one Presidential candidate seems to think we are in 2016, it might be as relevant now as it was then. Feel free to judge and comment on that.


corryfrydlewicz.com/how-shitty-should-american-poverty-get/

Despite what we’re told, it’s easy to redistribute wealth however we choose. We can modify the numbers in our tax structure. Maybe take more social security funding from rich people. Robin Hood had this figured out centuries ago. Rich conservatives would rather pay their lobbyists and super PACs out the ear than see the money go toward poverty, of course.



The problem with focusing entirely on distribution is: Even if we get our percentage of people at or under the poverty level down to 20% (less than half of the current level), I still don’t want our citizens in poverty to have such low economic mobility and quality of life.

Let’s pretend you’re going to be reborn. Your current body and mind, your friends and family, your possessions and reputation, your education and experience, gone. You’re going to be born fresh to a family you don’t know, in an unfamiliar place.



Everything will be randomly selected, and you have no say in any of it.

Using the What Percent Am I calculator from Wall Street Journal, let’s see what our dice rolls mean.



You have to roll a perfect 20 to be in the top 5% of household income (~$120,000 a year or more).

If you roll a 15-19, you’re in the middle class (~$50,000+).

Rolling 11-14 places you in the working class.

If you roll anything from a 10 or lower, you’re in poverty line range (depending on where you live).

(The article contains odds of being white, 62%, Hispanic 18% etc. plus gender, disabilities and sexual orientation)

For the child born tomorrow with their own random assortment of dice rolls, should being born in poverty mean they go hungry? Do we look at them and think, “Sucks to be them” and keep walking because we rolled our dice better?



Can we still call ourselves the land of the free if our circumstances at birth can shackle us? Can we still call ourselves the home of the brave if we’re too afraid to step up and make these hard choices for ourselves? How great can we truly be if we look down on 50% of our population because it makes us feel better about ourselves?

[Opti]

The article is long and I wish I could quote it all, but here's one last bit that to me is at the heart of it.

What should the penalty be for rolling your dice differently than others? In a just society, there would be no penalty at all. We would also minimize the benefits of exceptionally lucky dice rolling.

It’s healthy for successful people to be able to pass advantages down to their children, but the gap shouldn’t be wide enough to resemble feudalism

[obelisk]

It is 2024 not 2016.... Irrelevant

[dondubble]

Aug 31, 2024 18:47:33 GMT -5 obelisk said:

It is 2024 not 2016.... Irrelevant

So Biden ended poverty?

[djAdvocate]

Aug 31, 2024 18:47:33 GMT -5 obelisk said:

It is 2024 not 2016.... IrrelevantWorse

apps.urban.org/features/wealth-inequality-charts/

[scgal]

Sept 1, 2024 12:35:38 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Aug 31, 2024 18:47:33 GMT -5 obelisk said:

It is 2024 not 2016.... IrrelevantWorse

apps.urban.org/features/wealth-inequality-charts/

By looking at the data the poorest group did the best. They increased 20 fold while the middle increased 4 fold. 

[Opti]

Sept 1, 2024 12:35:38 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Aug 31, 2024 18:47:33 GMT -5 obelisk said:

It is 2024 not 2016.... IrrelevantWorse

apps.urban.org/features/wealth-inequality-charts/

Thank you for finding this I will study it more in depth. In chart three, the people they are following predate my birth, but I would think part of the discrepancy is due to types of jobs most had to take and lack of healthcare insurance. If you end up taking a very physical job, your body might wear out around 50 or so and you might have more health complaints than someone working in sales or most indoor or desk jobs. 

It makes me think of the song Fast Car by Tracy Chapman

Number 4 feels personal given my birth year and my sibs birth years fall there. There is a huge gap in income between men and women and it even gets worse if you click on attained a bachelor's degree. And from many of the professional woman I know, most were the ones who took off to either have children, raise children or sometimes took a lesser job for the sake of the family unit. 

[djAdvocate]

Sept 1, 2024 13:01:40 GMT -5 scgal said:

Sept 1, 2024 12:35:38 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

apps.urban.org/features/wealth-inequality-charts/

By looking at the data the poorest group did the best. They increased 20 fold while the middle increased 4 fold. 

between 2016 and 2019 black, white and hispanic wealth fell.

what are you looking at?

[pulmonarymd]

She’s using conservative math

[billisonboard]

Sept 1, 2024 13:59:28 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 1, 2024 13:01:40 GMT -5 scgal said:

By looking at the data the poorest group did the best. They increased 20 fold while the middle increased 4 fold. 

between 2016 and 2019 black, white and hispanic wealth fell.

what are you looking at?

This

families near the bottom of the wealth distribution (those at the 10th percentile) went from having $23 in debt to $450 in wealth,

those in the middle (50th percentile) nearly quadrupled their wealth (from $50,598 to $192,700),

[Opti]

Sept 1, 2024 14:48:29 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Sept 1, 2024 13:59:28 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

between 2016 and 2019 black, white and hispanic wealth fell.

what are you looking at?

This

families near the bottom of the wealth distribution (those at the 10th percentile) went from having $23 in debt to $450 in wealth,

those in the middle (50th percentile) nearly quadrupled their wealth (from $50,598 to $192,700),

$23 to $450 is not much of an accomplishment. $50K to almost $200K IMO is a far better one.

[scgal]

Sept 1, 2024 13:59:28 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 1, 2024 13:01:40 GMT -5 scgal said:

By looking at the data the poorest group did the best. They increased 20 fold while the middle increased 4 fold. 

between 2016 and 2019 black, white and hispanic wealth fell.

what are you looking at?

The very first one it shown that the poorest had $23 now $450 that is almost 20 fold. I'm not saying that is anything good just that there was a higher jump there than any of the others

[scgal]

Here is another question why does there need to be equality in wealth? 

[djAdvocate]

Sept 1, 2024 15:15:07 GMT -5 scgal said:

Sept 1, 2024 13:59:28 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

between 2016 and 2019 black, white and hispanic wealth fell.

what are you looking at?

The very first one it shown that the poorest had $23 now $450 that is almost 20 fold. I'm not saying that is anything good just that there was a higher jump there than any of the others

$450 in equity?  i have more than that in my right front pants pocket, scgal .  that is not a real gain.  oh, and i thought it said -$23.  but no matter.

the percentage of wealth owned by the top 1% continues to increase.  and....woo hoo....the poorest have less than i have in my jeans.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 1, 2024 15:17:08 GMT -5 scgal said:

Here is another question why does there need to be equality in wealth? 

do you mind if i rephrase the question thusly:

"why is it desirable to have a more even distribution of wealth"?

i can't answer the question the way you have it.

[Opti]

Sept 1, 2024 15:15:07 GMT -5 scgal said:

Sept 1, 2024 13:59:28 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

between 2016 and 2019 black, white and hispanic wealth fell.

what are you looking at?

The very first one it shown that the poorest had $23 now $450 that is almost 20 fold. I'm not saying that is anything good just that there was a higher jump there than any of the others

If you insist on looking at percentages instead of a more objective measure. So poor people went from being able to buy a handful of groceries to splurging on replacing the battery in their car and some gas for some of the following of the year. 
Versus
being able to buy two more new cars if they wanted

There are very few car repairs I can think of that are under $450. Not much help for someone who is poor with a POS car.

[billisonboard]

Sept 1, 2024 16:19:38 GMT -5 Opti said:

Sept 1, 2024 15:15:07 GMT -5 scgal said:

The very first one it shown that the poorest had $23 now $450 that is almost 20 fold. I'm not saying that is anything good just that there was a higher jump there than any of the others

If you insist on looking at percentages instead of a more objective measure. So poor people went from being able to buy a handful of groceries to splurging on replacing the battery in their car and some gas for some of the following of the year. 
Versus
being able to buy two more new cars if they wanted

There are very few car repairs I can think of that are under $450. Not much help for someone who is poor with a POS car.

The POS car is the $450 net worth.

[busymom]

I'll ask the question:  what happens when the middle class cease to exist?  When there are only the very rich, and the very poor we will officially be a sh#thole country.  And sadly, unless we figure a way to adjust the tax structure, that is exactly where we are going to end up.  Back to the landowners and the serfs.  

[djAdvocate]

that is one of many questions.

i will wait for scgal to lmk if i can use my phrasing of the question asked before i respond. there is a very fullsome response to that question that is more Jeffersonian than Marxist.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 1, 2024 14:18:46 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

She’s using conservative math

if they had gone from zero to $1, the increase would have been infinite.  but the wealth gap is an absolute measure.  you get it by taking the percent of wealth held by each given percent and comparing it.  when the bottom 20% have basically nothing, and the top 20% have $1.3M per household, the gap is immense.

candidly, anyone who has less than $10k to their name is at extreme risk of ending up on the street.  so, let's just call anything less than that zero.  you will be out of house and home before you can find a job in MANY circumstances.  particularly if you are seriously ill or injured.  it is part of what makes COVID such a problem in the US.  there is no safety net for the bottom 1/3 of our population.

[Opti]

Sept 1, 2024 16:54:51 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Sept 1, 2024 16:19:38 GMT -5 Opti said:

If you insist on looking at percentages instead of a more objective measure. So poor people went from being able to buy a handful of groceries to splurging on replacing the battery in their car and some gas for some of the following of the year. 
Versus
being able to buy two more new cars if they wanted

There are very few car repairs I can think of that are under $450. Not much help for someone who is poor with a POS car.

The POS car is the $450 net worth.

You can't buy a POS running car for that. At least not in NJ unless you have a generous friend. Generally, it's at least $1 to $2K here  private owner for something 15+ yrs old that is running.

[billisonboard]

I have a different take on things. As I see it, there has always been basically four different classes in society. At the ends, you have people for whom every day is a struggle to simply not die of hunger and/or exposure and those for whom every slight desire is instantly met. In between you have a group that, has long as they work diligently daily, they can have the resources necessary to meet their basic needs (working class) and a group that, as long as they are careful, can fulfill their basic needs and have some left over to satisfy some desires (middle class). 

These groups are both within a society but also exist as worldwide groups. For much of human history, societies had a balance of the groups within but as the world economy started to develop, some countries took advantage of others to increase their middle class and to increase the standard of living for both their middle and working classes. The United States did this primarily with South American countries until WWII and then with most of the world after that. That is, until the late seventies at which point, other countries started to fight back,  think OPEC for an example. What we are seeing is effects of larger and better off middle and working classes in places like India impacting those classes here in the US. It is also impacting our elite class's willingness to give up any of their advantage. Unless we again gain dominance over other countries (which I do hear talk about us doing), we will not be able to maintain our oversized standards of living. Taxing the wealth will slow things down but won't stop it. 

On an individual level, what I offer to younger people is the need to work to be on the upper end of the class in which they want to live. They need to develop non-exportable/non-replacable job skills. 

[busymom]

The problem is, greed is never satisfied.  The richest always want more.  Even Trump admitted during an interview years ago, when he looks at the skyline in New York City, he wants to own every building he sees.  And you saw who got the big tax breaks when he was in office.  They'll never be happy until they own everything.

[billisonboard]

Sept 1, 2024 19:39:11 GMT -5 busymom said:

The problem is, greed is never satisfied.  The richest always want more.  Even Trump admitted during an interview years ago, when he looks at the skyline in New York City, he wants to own every building he sees.  And you saw who got the big tax breaks when he was in office.  They'll never be happy until they own everything.

And when he gets around to it, djAdvocate will tell us what will happen when it gets impossibly out of balance.

[Opti]

Sept 1, 2024 18:59:34 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

I have a different take on things. As I see it, there has always been basically four different classes in society. At the ends, you have people for whom every day is a struggle to simply not die of hunger and/or exposure and those for whom every slight desire is instantly met. In between you have a group that, has long as they work diligently daily, they can have the resources necessary to meet their basic needs (working class) and a group that, as long as they are careful, can fulfill their basic needs and have some left over to satisfy some desires (middle class). 

These groups are both within a society but also exist as worldwide groups. For much of human history, societies had a balance of the groups within but as the world economy started to develop, some countries took advantage of others to increase their middle class and to increase the standard of living for both their middle and working classes. The United States did this primarily with South American countries until WWII and then with most of the world after that. That is, until the late seventies at which point, other countries started to fight back,  think OPEC for an example. What we are seeing is effects of larger and better off middle and working classes in places like India impacting those classes here in the US. It is also impacting our elite class's willingness to give up any of their advantage. Unless we again gain dominance over other countries (which I do hear talk about us doing), we will not be able to maintain our oversized standards of living. Taxing the wealth will slow things down but won't stop it. 

On an individual level, what I offer to younger people is the need to work to be on the upper end of the class in which they want to live. They need to develop non-exportable/non-replacable job skills. 

But what are those jobs, because the world does not stay static, many become replaceable or less desirable jobs as time goes on.
Plus, there are ebbs and flows in hiring and demand for US based employees. For example, I found a nice, interesting job I could probably do now for Paramount+ but it is based in Hungary to support non-US TV. 

[djAdvocate]

Sept 1, 2024 18:23:35 GMT -5 Opti said:

Sept 1, 2024 16:54:51 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

The POS car is the $450 net worth.

You can't buy a POS running car for that. At least not in NJ unless you have a generous friend. Generally, it's at least $1 to $2K here  private owner for something 15+ yrs old that is running.

the car i bought was $1k.
nobody can believe i drive around in that POS.
but i do it to make a point. 
i don't need $100k in car to drive around 200 lbs of hamburger.
in fact, i don't need a car at all.
it is only to make things easier for me that i own one.
no other consideration enters my mind.

[Opti]

Sept 1, 2024 23:30:28 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 1, 2024 18:23:35 GMT -5 Opti said:

You can't buy a POS running car for that. At least not in NJ unless you have a generous friend. Generally, it's at least $1 to $2K here  private owner for something 15+ yrs old that is running.

the car i bought was $1k.
nobody can believe i drive around in that POS.
but i do it to make a point. 
i don't need $100k in car to drive around 200 lbs of hamburger.
in fact, i don't need a car at all.
it is only to make things easier for me that i own one.
no other consideration enters my mind.

In Turkey or CA? And when did you buy it? Prices were much more reasonable pre Covid.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 1, 2024 23:40:40 GMT -5 Opti said:

Sept 1, 2024 23:30:28 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

the car i bought was $1k.
nobody can believe i drive around in that POS.
but i do it to make a point. 
i don't need $100k in car to drive around 200 lbs of hamburger.
in fact, i don't need a car at all.
it is only to make things easier for me that i own one.
no other consideration enters my mind.

In Turkey or CA? And when did you buy it? Prices were much more reasonable pre Covid.

back in the Pleistocene Era

[billisonboard]

Sept 1, 2024 22:30:33 GMT -5 Opti said:

Sept 1, 2024 18:59:34 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

I have a different take on things. As I see it, there has always been basically four different classes in society. At the ends, you have people for whom every day is a struggle to simply not die of hunger and/or exposure and those for whom every slight desire is instantly met. In between you have a group that, has long as they work diligently daily, they can have the resources necessary to meet their basic needs (working class) and a group that, as long as they are careful, can fulfill their basic needs and have some left over to satisfy some desires (middle class). 

These groups are both within a society but also exist as worldwide groups. For much of human history, societies had a balance of the groups within but as the world economy started to develop, some countries took advantage of others to increase their middle class and to increase the standard of living for both their middle and working classes. The United States did this primarily with South American countries until WWII and then with most of the world after that. That is, until the late seventies at which point, other countries started to fight back,  think OPEC for an example. What we are seeing is effects of larger and better off middle and working classes in places like India impacting those classes here in the US. It is also impacting our elite class's willingness to give up any of their advantage. Unless we again gain dominance over other countries (which I do hear talk about us doing), we will not be able to maintain our oversized standards of living. Taxing the wealth will slow things down but won't stop it. 

On an individual level, what I offer to younger people is the need to work to be on the upper end of the class in which they want to live. They need to develop non-exportable/non-replacable job skills. 

But what are those jobs, because the world does not stay static, many become replaceable or less desirable jobs as time goes on.
Plus, there are ebbs and flows in hiring and demand for US based employees. For example, I found a nice, interesting job I could probably do now for Paramount+ but it is based in Hungary to support non-US TV. 

The trades, plumbing or electrician for examples, are great choices. Teaching is solid. Pharmacist gives you great options. "Nice, interesting" is probably something to avoid.

[Opti]

Sept 1, 2024 23:45:01 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 1, 2024 23:40:40 GMT -5 Opti said:

In Turkey or CA? And when did you buy it? Prices were much more reasonable pre Covid.

back in the Pleistocene Era

Cars are my thing like animals are my thing, so I wouldn't choose a POS car as my only car if I had reasonable ability to do differently. Because of rising rent and decreasing income I nursed my car to the end driving without using heat or A/C most times to make it easier on the engine. I shimmied up car windows for years because it was more affordable than fixing those bleeping parts.

There are always tradeoffs, but I'd go back to the right luxury vehicle in a heartbeat. The seats in my BMW stayed nice for me for at least 20 years. My Honda Accord had cloth seats, and I was really wanting to replace them and the car probably ten to thirteen years in. I drove a rental Yaris once, and that thing was painful from the minute I drove it. Gas mileage was great, but probably the most uncomfortable car I have ever driven. 

I would pick a car simply because I liked it and it suited me. People being impressed by it or not, is not important to me. Is it cool or not? That's my measure. There are quite a few I'd like to drive just because it would be nice to do so at least once. Right now, Porsche is working on or releasing soon a Porsche 911 type vehicle hardened for Dakkar. It is most definitely a rarified specialty vehicle and per the one car mag, if a certain part of its underside got punctured by a rock it would be a ridiculously pricey repair. Would I be interested in seeing it, driving it, especially driving it in the conditions it is made for? Heck yes!