The Official 2024 Presidential Thread

[tallguy]

To be fair, though, the word "theory" has a very different and much stricter definition within the world of science than it does outside that world with the general public and in general usage.

[billisonboard]

To be fair, on YMAM?

[Opti]

Thought Q -

If Trump catches Covid b4 the next debate, will he only get Paxlovid as treatment like Biden did?
If he drops out of debate #2 because he caught Covid; will the GOP party of Trump pressure him to
step down from the nomination?

[NomoreDramaQ1015]

A theory is considered to be as close to 100% fact as you can get in science because there is such a large consistent mountain of data to back it up that anyone who tried to disprove it would be met with extreme skepticism and need to have a shit load more data to prove themselves correct.

What pop culture thinks a theory is would be a hypothesis in science.  It's an experiment designed to back up whatever question is being asked and if designed properly is required to be able to fail/be disproven.  If it does indeed fail the scientist is expected to provide the data explaining why the results were different than expected.

[billisonboard]

Jul 22, 2024 10:39:44 GMT -5 Opti said:

Thought Q -

If Trump catches Covid b4 the next debate, will he only get Paxlovid as treatment like Biden did?
If he drops out of debate #2 because he caught Covid; will the GOP party of Trump pressure him to
step down from the nomination?

1. Treatment would depend on physical condition.
2. Assuming it does not result in him being on life support, no.

[pulmonarymd]

COvid is having a surge. ED docs told me they were seeing a bunch last month. People just do not get sick with it like they used to. Been a while since anyone died in my ICU from it. This is the natural history of most pandemics. Enough immunity develops that the disease just becomes another in the myriad that infect us. 

[pulmonarymd]

Jul 22, 2024 10:52:35 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Jul 22, 2024 10:39:44 GMT -5 Opti said:

Thought Q -

If Trump catches Covid b4 the next debate, will he only get Paxlovid as treatment like Biden did?
If he drops out of debate #2 because he caught Covid; will the GOP party of Trump pressure him to
step down from the nomination?

1. Treatment would depend on physical condition.
2. Assuming it does not result in him being on life support, no.

Not quite right. Trump would qualify for Paxlovid based on his age alone, as he is high risk for complications. A competent doctor(not that Trump would pick one) would offer him treatment. Whether he would agree to take it is a different story. In most respects, the difference between Trump and Biden from a medical standpoint is basically nil

[grumpyhermit]

Jul 22, 2024 9:56:34 GMT -5 busymom said:

Democrats received around $50 million in donations yesterday.  I confess that I donated yesterday too.  I cannot stomach the idea of another 4 years of Trump.  The first 4 were bad enough.  

I'm still half convinced the first four were a fever dream. Just....how. 

I'm glad Biden dropped out, as voting for him would have been hard to stomach. I hope KH is able to sustain the enthusiasm bump, as she is going to have a very uphill battle before her. 

[Tiny]

Jul 22, 2024 4:08:06 GMT -5 obelisk said:

Jul 21, 2024 23:22:07 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

And, when no confidence is expressed, then what?

In a nutshell, to force more than two major parties to promote viable candidates.  In a not so perfect world, the senate and congress can meet to direct our nation.

I'm not willing to risk the threat to my loved ones - young women, little girls, and the LGBTQ+ people in my life. Not to mention the elderly people in my life who depend on medicare, medicaid, and SS. And my relatives who will need public education to get their children educated. I will not risk the future of the people I love and the people in my community to make a statement that no one will hear and no action will be taken on. 

trump or Republicans in any office are a threat.

[Opti]

Jul 22, 2024 11:04:56 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Jul 22, 2024 10:52:35 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

1. Treatment would depend on physical condition.
2. Assuming it does not result in him being on life support, no.

Not quite right. Trump would qualify for Paxlovid based on his age alone, as he is high risk for complications. A competent doctor(not that Trump would pick one) would offer him treatment. Whether he would agree to take it is a different story. In most respects, the difference between Trump and Biden from a medical standpoint is basically nil

Now we "know" that Trump probably was on a ventilator when he was President and took things that most people could not access, including Chris Christie. All I know about Biden's bout with Covid now is the doctor released a letter saying basically he is breathing room air, i.e. not on a ventilator. Biden being thinner his lungs should have less work to do than if Trump was the same level sick. I think.

[Opti]

Jul 22, 2024 11:17:50 GMT -5 Tiny said:

Jul 22, 2024 4:08:06 GMT -5 obelisk said:

In a nutshell, to force more than two major parties to promote viable candidates.  In a not so perfect world, the senate and congress can meet to direct our nation.

I'm not willing to risk the threat to my loved ones - young women, little girls, and the LGBTQ+ people in my life. Not to mention the elderly people in my life who depend on medicare, medicaid, and SS. And my relatives who will need public education to get their children educated. I will not risk the future of the people I love and the people in my community to make a statement that no one will hear and no action will be taken on. 

trump or Republicans in any office are a threat.

I would modify that to Trump, his administration and most Republicans are a threat. I don't need or want Trump to take us from a second world country and book us near the bottom of the third world suite he seems intent on placing us in. He already started that work with how he handled Covid etc.

[NastyWoman]

Jul 22, 2024 4:08:06 GMT -5 obelisk said:

Jul 21, 2024 23:22:07 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

And, when no confidence is expressed, then what?

In a nutshell, to force more than two major parties to promote viable candidates.  In a not so perfect world, the senate and congress can meet to direct our nation.

Really. With all the "action" we have seen from them the last coup!e of years I am not sure they could even solve the toilet paper over/under controversy. If that is your fall back position the country has lost.

[pulmonarymd]

Jul 22, 2024 11:20:15 GMT -5 Opti said:

Jul 22, 2024 11:04:56 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Not quite right. Trump would qualify for Paxlovid based on his age alone, as he is high risk for complications. A competent doctor(not that Trump would pick one) would offer him treatment. Whether he would agree to take it is a different story. In most respects, the difference between Trump and Biden from a medical standpoint is basically nil

Now we "know" that Trump probably was on a ventilator when he was President and took things that most people could not access, including Chris Christie. All I know about Biden's bout with Covid now is the doctor released a letter saying basically he is breathing room air, i.e. not on a ventilator. Biden being thinner his lungs should have less work to do than if Trump was the same level sick. I think.

You need to get off these conspiracy theories. None of what you said was true. And the therapies that Trump had "access" to that regular peolpe didn't-they didn't work. Obesity is a risk factor for severe disease, but not in the way you think.

I think you should refrain from talking about medical facts given your level of knowledge about them

[MN-Investor]

A couple of points.

First, Nancy Pelosi is one of the best Democratic strategists we have. She and other Democratic leaders have worked closely with Biden and can better evaluate his mental acuity than the general public can. If the top Democrats have determined that Biden can't beat Trump, it's because they can see how he is currently interacting with other politicians. Apparently, they foresee problems with his continuing to be the Democratic candidate. So I will abide by their evaluation.

Second, we don't have any real polls evaluating Trump versus a campaigning Harris. Give it a couple of weeks and see where the polls are headed then. Apparently the Democratic leaders saw where Harris was in the polls when she wasn't campaigning, so they evaluated the situation and agreed with Biden that Harris would be the best alternative to beat Trump.

[bean29]

I have no problem with Kamala Harris.  Apparently the Republicans were concerned about this possibility b/c they have been demonizing her every chance they get.  My DH is not happy with her as the candidate, but I am sure he will still vote for her.  We both would have voted Democratic no matter what.  The problem is the swing voters need a candidate they can get behind.  I am in the anybody buy Trump camp.

[happyhoix]

Kelly Anne Conway has come out with racist and sexist comments about Harris not speaking well and not working hard.

Can’t even call them dog whistles, it’s so obvious.

They will only get worse.

[happyhoix]

Trump is trying to back away from a debate with Harris.

He should be afraid. She would call him out on his lies. And she’d shred him on his long history of legal issues.

He’ll talk about Hannibal Lector, windmills and what a victim he is.

I hope we get to see one.

[grumpyhermit]

Jul 22, 2024 12:26:44 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Trump is trying to back away from a debate with Harris.

He should be afraid. She would call him out on his lies. And she’d shred him on his long history of legal issues.

He’ll talk about Hannibal Lector, windmills and what a victim he is.

I hope we get to see one.

I both do and don't. I do think she would eviscerate him, but I also know they will start beating the unlikable drum like they did with Hillary. 

Though in the grand scheme I don't think debates actually sway people's votes. 

(But truly would love to see it.)

[billisonboard]

Jul 22, 2024 12:23:07 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Kelly Anne Conway has come out with racist and sexist comments about Harris not speaking well and not working hard.

Can’t even call them dog whistles, it’s so obvious.

They will only get worse.

Good. Anything they can do to increase Democratic turnout will be helpful.

[Spellbound454]

BUT this is a woman we are talking about. Not only a woman but an African American/southeast Asian woman. So fucking shocker even having been Vice President of the United States, second in line for the presidency, doesn't qualify her to be President for some people.

I appreciate the sentiment but you can't do anything if you don't win.

If she can't garner votes it will have to be someone else.

Having said that, more and more people (Nancy Pelosi) are backing her
and the election is a decent amount of time away.

A day is a long time in politics at the moment things are moving that fast.

[Opti]

Jul 22, 2024 13:17:47 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

BUT this is a woman we are talking about. Not only a woman but an African American/southeast Asian woman. So fucking shocker even having been Vice President of the United States, second in line for the presidency, doesn't qualify her to be President for some people.

I appreciate the sentiment but you can't do anything if you don't win.

If she can't garner votes it will have to be someone else.

Having said that, more and more people (Nancy Pelosi) are backing her
and the election is a decent amount of time away.

A day is a long time in politics at the moment things are moving that fast.

This is my biggest worry. Harris has been hidden to much of the GOP spin machine and even regular press. All that will end now and certainly knives out if she becomes the Presidential nominee for the Dems.

I have voted for several women on Presidential tickets-
Geraldine Ferraro
Hillary Clinton
Kamala Harris

Hillary got beaten by Obama before she tried again years later, was not elected President
K. Harris actually got voted in as VP unlike Ms. Ferraro
So, I personally would have preferred to build on the win and the superior position we had just days ago,
K. Harris gets re-elected as VP as a two term federal second chair office holder. During that term she becomes
more visible and eases in to being a target of racial hate and gender hate from the RW.

[billisonboard]

Jul 22, 2024 13:25:10 GMT -5 Opti said:

Jul 22, 2024 13:17:47 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

I appreciate the sentiment but you can't do anything if you don't win.

If she can't garner votes it will have to be someone else.

Having said that, more and more people (Nancy Pelosi) are backing her
and the election is a decent amount of time away.

A day is a long time in politics at the moment things are moving that fast.

This is my biggest worry. Harris has been hidden to much of the GOP spin machine and even regular press. All that will end now and certainly knives out if she becomes the Presidential nominee for the Dems.

I have voted for several women on Presidential tickets-
Geraldine Ferraro
Hillary Clinton
Kamala Harris

Hillary got beaten by Obama before she tried again years later, was not elected President
K. Harris actually got voted in as VP unlike Ms. Ferraro
So, I personally would have preferred to build on the win and the superior position we had just days ago,
K. Harris gets re-elected as VP as a two term federal second chair office holder. During that term she becomes
more visible and eases in to being a target of racial hate and gender hate from the RW.

re: bolded: What superior position and to whom exactly does the pronoun "we" refer?

[grumpyhermit]

Jul 22, 2024 13:25:10 GMT -5 Opti said:

Jul 22, 2024 13:17:47 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

I appreciate the sentiment but you can't do anything if you don't win.

If she can't garner votes it will have to be someone else.

Having said that, more and more people (Nancy Pelosi) are backing her
and the election is a decent amount of time away.

A day is a long time in politics at the moment things are moving that fast.

This is my biggest worry. Harris has been hidden to much of the GOP spin machine and even regular press. All that will end now and certainly knives out if she becomes the Presidential nominee for the Dems.

I have voted for several women on Presidential tickets-
Geraldine Ferraro
Hillary Clinton
Kamala Harris

Hillary got beaten by Obama before she tried again years later, was not elected President
K. Harris actually got voted in as VP unlike Ms. Ferraro
So, I personally would have preferred to build on the win and the superior position we had just days ago,
K. Harris gets re-elected as VP as a two term federal second chair office holder. During that term she becomes
more visible and eases in to being a target of racial hate and gender hate from the RW.

This is a wild thing to write about a bi-racial black woman. She has been dealing with racial hate her whole damn life. She doesn't need to "ease into" the bigotry that has, and will continue to be thrown her way. 

[pulmonarymd]

She already has a preview from the Trump playbook. She can look at what he did to Haley and Clinton to get an idea. Given how much worse Trump is now compared to 2016, I expect it to be vile

[hurley1980]

I am very nervous about this.  Not just because Harris is a woman, or a woman of color.  She is a woman of color from California, and notriously hated state!  I live here, and I know how much the midwest and southern states dislike us, thinking we are a bunch of elitist liberals who love immigrants (our economy kind of depends on them). We have not had a president from California since Reagan (and he wasn't actually born here), and that was nearly 50 years ago. 

I will vote for her, and pray that she wins, but after what happened to Hilary I am not sure she can beat Trump.  

[NomoreDramaQ1015]

Jul 22, 2024 14:02:10 GMT -5 hurley1980 said:

I am very nervous about this.  Not just because Harris is a woman, or a woman of color.  She is a woman of color from California, and notriously hated state!  I live here, and I know how much the midwest and southern states dislike us, thinking we are a bunch of elitist liberals who love immigrants (our economy kind of depends on them). We have not had a president from California since Reagan (and he wasn't actually born here), and that was nearly 50 years ago. 

I will vote for her, and pray that she wins, but after what happened to Hilary I am not sure she can beat Trump.  

This always amuses me because who the hell do they think are working in the meat packing plants, especially on the kill floor?  Who are harvesting their crops and spraying them with pesticides?

The way the workers in the JBS and Tyson plants are treated is horrible my DH can tell you stories about Tyson but it reached a whole new level with COVID.  

Can't remember which one it was now or if it was Iowa/Nebraska but a plant got busted for having immigrant children . . .CHILDREN working on the kill floor.  That was pretty recent too.

All those people need to shut up and put up.  You don't want immigrants here then you go work those God awful piss poor paying jobs that are barely above slavery.  You can't claim they are stealing jobs when you would do anything to avoid having to do them yourself.

[NastyWoman]

Jul 22, 2024 14:02:10 GMT -5 hurley1980 said:

I am very nervous about this.  Not just because Harris is a woman, or a woman of color.  She is a woman of color from California, and notriously hated state!  I live here, and I know how much the midwest and southern states dislike us, thinking we are a bunch of elitist liberals who love immigrants (our economy kind of depends on them). We have not had a president from California since Reagan (and he wasn't actually born here), and that was nearly 50 years ago. 

I will vote for her, and pray that she wins, but after what happened to Hilary I am not sure she can beat Trump.  

I think a lot will depend on the choice for VP. She can't go with Newsom (though I read that that would be troublesome under the 12th amendment anyway) or Butigieg (no way a female POC and an openly gay man would win). Even Gretchen Wittmer (twowomen? there are not enough pearls in the world to clutch) won't work. She needs to go with a male, preferalby causcasian, from a swing state to stand a chance

[thyme4change]

Jul 22, 2024 8:17:16 GMT -5 Opti said:

Harris trails Trump by an average of 2 points in several national polls ― an improvement over Biden’s 3-point deficit before he dropped out, the New York Times reported.

Jul 22, 2024, 07:39 AM EDT

www.huffpost.com/entry/margaret-brennan-political-suicide-kamala-harris_n_669e21e9e4b008fc7de11dcb

My fear (as I have stated before) is that her advantage over Biden is in the wrong place. Her winning CA by 40 points instead of 30 points, but losing PA, MI, AZ, etc, does us no good.

[Opti]

Jul 22, 2024 14:12:03 GMT -5 NomoreDramaQ1015 said:

Jul 22, 2024 14:02:10 GMT -5 hurley1980 said:

I am very nervous about this.  Not just because Harris is a woman, or a woman of color.  She is a woman of color from California, and notriously hated state!  I live here, and I know how much the midwest and southern states dislike us, thinking we are a bunch of elitist liberals who love immigrants (our economy kind of depends on them). We have not had a president from California since Reagan (and he wasn't actually born here), and that was nearly 50 years ago. 

I will vote for her, and pray that she wins, but after what happened to Hilary I am not sure she can beat Trump.  

This always amuses me because who the hell do they think are working in the meat packing plants, especially on the kill floor?  Who are harvesting their crops and spraying them with pesticides?

The way the workers in the JBS and Tyson plants are treated is horrible my DH can tell you stories about Tyson but it reached a whole new level with COVID.  

Can't remember which one it was now or if it was Iowa/Nebraska but a plant got busted for having immigrant children . . .CHILDREN working on the kill floor.  That was pretty recent too.

All those people need to shut up and put up.  You don't want immigrants here then you go work those God awful piss poor paying jobs that are barely above slavery.  You can't claim they are stealing jobs when you would do anything to avoid having to do them yourself.

Those jobs do pay more than what I make an hour, but they are hard and dangerous. I was called "Harris' when I tried to explain to a legal immigrant at a bus stop that no immigrants don't just get handed homes and cars. I know they work for them. I know its a hard process, but the Trump campaign has already sold a bunch of gullible "legal" immigrants that those that come from the border and are vetted have all these magical gimmees. 

I admit I did not handle that encounter well, as I told her if those "free" houses and "free" cars to vetted immigrants was a social program I would have qualified, and I had never heard of such a thing. I know the vetted immigrants have an aggressive schedule to prove they are self-supporting which is what places them in these dangerous and necessary jobs. The hope for them is their kids will not have to do this in order to stay in America and be free.

So still on the to be learned list, the current timeline for vetted immigrants to become self-supporting and how that generally happens. I run afoul of conservative POC in my complex all the time. Must be a magnet for them somehow. 

[Opti]

Jul 22, 2024 14:36:28 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

Jul 22, 2024 8:17:16 GMT -5 Opti said:

Harris trails Trump by an average of 2 points in several national polls ― an improvement over Biden’s 3-point deficit before he dropped out, the New York Times reported.

Jul 22, 2024, 07:39 AM EDT

www.huffpost.com/entry/margaret-brennan-political-suicide-kamala-harris_n_669e21e9e4b008fc7de11dcb

My fear (as I have stated before) is that her advantage over Biden is in the wrong place. Her winning CA by 40 points instead of 30 points, but losing PA, MI, AZ, etc, does us no good.

The electoral college math worked with both of them on the ticket. I fear that hot and panicky heads forced Biden out and put the ticket at risk because they were so busy obsessing in Biden's performance in extreme heat w/ Covid, they ignore how Trump just markets his ass out of all sorts of binds. Better marketing is what is needed if they actually cared about winning this election.

Not panicked dumbassery. MO. Held by me.