mary2029
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Post by mary2029 on Jul 6, 2020 10:45:04 GMT -5
I wonder if the difference of 1% critical vs Canada's 8% critical has to do with the health care system? Or the shape of the curve? Have all the main cities in Canada been hit yet? Right now, your curve looks great.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jul 6, 2020 10:49:37 GMT -5
It is likely because we are not being honest. States are not reporting admissions due to covid. Some of it may be due to a lower average age of the cases at present. The likelihood of that continuing is low. But the numbers of serious cases as well as deaths don’t add up
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 6, 2020 10:55:18 GMT -5
we just passed 3M cases.
MAGA!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 6, 2020 11:00:44 GMT -5
the death rate lags infections by about 3 weeks. we broke through our old cases per day record about a week and a half ago. either we are underreporting (probably are), the case demographic has changed (probably has), or we are going to see record numbers of deaths in a couple weeks (seems unlikely).
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mary2029
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Post by mary2029 on Jul 6, 2020 11:04:27 GMT -5
Good thing: US and/or individual states or local governments have done a larger number of testing. It's now over 11%! Remember when it was only at 2-3%.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jul 6, 2020 11:06:25 GMT -5
the death rate lags infections by about 3 weeks. we broke through our old cases per day record about a week and a half ago. either we are underreporting (probably are), the case demographic has changed (probably has), or we are going to see record numbers of deaths in a couple weeks (seems unlikely). Well, I think the case rate will continue to increase based on our behavior. I expect to see mortality increase, and the numbers shoot back up to 2000/day. Hospital census in Houston, San Antonio, Austin, Phoenix, and Miami are increasing in a worrisome fashion. Late July is likely to be ugly
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 6, 2020 11:06:51 GMT -5
Good thing: US and/or individual states or local governments have done a larger number of testing. It's now over 11%! Remember when it was only at 2-3%. 11% is a good number.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 6, 2020 11:08:30 GMT -5
the death rate lags infections by about 3 weeks. we broke through our old cases per day record about a week and a half ago. either we are underreporting (probably are), the case demographic has changed (probably has), or we are going to see record numbers of deaths in a couple weeks (seems unlikely). Well, I think the case rate will continue to increase based on our behavior. I expect to see mortality increase, and the numbers shoot back up to 2000/day. Hospital census in Houston, San Antonio, Austin, Phoenix, and Miami are increasing in a worrisome fashion. Late July is likely to be ugly the numbers are nuts in FL right now. I thought CA was doing bad, but FL is over 2x as bad as CA, and growing.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jul 6, 2020 11:12:14 GMT -5
Well, I think the case rate will continue to increase based on our behavior. I expect to see mortality increase, and the numbers shoot back up to 2000/day. Hospital census in Houston, San Antonio, Austin, Phoenix, and Miami are increasing in a worrisome fashion. Late July is likely to be ugly the numbers are nuts in FL right now. I thought CA was doing bad, but FL is over 2x as bad as CA, and growing. And they do not have the political courage to do what is needed to control this. Arizona and Texas aren’t doing enough either. In fact, the entire sunbelt is a mess. I don’t see how we get out of it, nor do I see how trump changes the subject. The travel industry may be in shambles by the end of the year. Seriously, where can you go on vacation and be away from this?
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laterbloomer
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Post by laterbloomer on Jul 6, 2020 11:16:12 GMT -5
I have so many questions about that. You guys are only hitting 1% for cases considered serious/critical. As much as I hate Trump, 99% of your cases really are pretty much nothing. I wish "they" would get the story straight on how it spreads. People who do not have serious illness still could be quite ill and not need a hospital admission. They could also have a prolonged recovery, and who knows what the potential long term consequences of an infection are. Could it increase your risk of cancer? Dementia since it can affect the brain? Increase the risk of asthma, as other respiratory infections can? Disease has been around a little more than 6 months. Long term consequences are unknown. Another irresponsible statement. Who knows what may happen to people. Another reason to avoid infection Like I said, lots of questions. We (Canada) are doing lots of testing as well. We get 8% serious/critical and we are sitting about 10% deaths for resolved cases. Something is off.
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justme
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Post by justme on Jul 6, 2020 11:16:30 GMT -5
Well, I think the case rate will continue to increase based on our behavior. I expect to see mortality increase, and the numbers shoot back up to 2000/day. Hospital census in Houston, San Antonio, Austin, Phoenix, and Miami are increasing in a worrisome fashion. Late July is likely to be ugly the numbers are nuts in FL right now. I thought CA was doing bad, but FL is over 2x as bad as CA, and growing. The very small upside is at least we're testing like mad now. The convention center testing site near me that was down to almost no one in line saw an uptick when they started offering the antibody test, but the last two weeks or so has been back to the snaking line of waiting for a few hours to get tested that hasn't been since since early April. Very small upside though because in April around 3% of tests were positive but now we're at like 10-15%.
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Jul 6, 2020 11:19:28 GMT -5
I wonder if the difference of 1% critical vs Canada's 8% critical has to do with the health care system? Or the shape of the curve? Have all the main cities in Canada been hit yet? Right now, your curve looks great. Hit and hit hard. We had over 27,000 cases in Montreal. Our numbers are plummeting now. We're opening up slowly and cautiously.
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mary2029
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Post by mary2029 on Jul 6, 2020 11:29:20 GMT -5
I wonder if the difference of 1% critical vs Canada's 8% critical has to do with the health care system? Or the shape of the curve? Have all the main cities in Canada been hit yet? Right now, your curve looks great. Ack! That's the same percentage of population as Maricopa County (where Phoenix is). Sorry about that. Hope you guys can get it under control quickly.
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oped
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Post by oped on Jul 6, 2020 11:55:15 GMT -5
Good thing: US and/or individual states or local governments have done a larger number of testing. It's now over 11%! Remember when it was only at 2-3%. 11% is a good number.
How many are those around the president. How many are repeated testing to get a recovered diagnosis... is it really 11% of population? I can’t find this data.
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justme
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Post by justme on Jul 6, 2020 12:01:45 GMT -5
Supposedly Florida says their number is only the first time you test positive. 🤷🏻♀️ There's a dashboard from the fired dept of health lady that shows different numbers. Not sure if either is correct.
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mary2029
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Post by mary2029 on Jul 6, 2020 12:12:13 GMT -5
11% is a good number.
How many are those around the president. How many are repeated testing to get a recovered diagnosis... is it really 11% of population? I can’t find this data. Same questions I was thinking as well as what constitutes a test. The data I saw is on worldometer and there are various numbers for different states, so it's not just POTUS and pals. I would assume that unless someone has symptoms or going to have a medical procedure performed, he wouldn't be tested.
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Jul 6, 2020 12:18:06 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 6, 2020 12:31:12 GMT -5
How many are those around the president. How many are repeated testing to get a recovered diagnosis... is it really 11% of population? I can’t find this data. Same questions I was thinking as well as what constitutes a test. The data I saw is on worldometer and there are various numbers for different states, so it's not just POTUS and pals. I would assume that unless someone has symptoms or going to have a medical procedure performed, he wouldn't be tested. I was tested without symptoms and not needing a medical procedure. so was my foreman, and at least one other person in my organization.
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oped
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Post by oped on Jul 6, 2020 12:38:25 GMT -5
The boy that works with husband sometimes called last night to say his mom was exposed and had a fever last night. I told husband he should stay home but he did not. He isn’t coming near me till she gets her test results.
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justme
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Post by justme on Jul 6, 2020 12:41:37 GMT -5
The boy that works with husband sometimes called last night to say his mom was exposed and had a fever last night. I told husband he should stay home but he did not. He isn’t coming near me till she gets her test results. You've problem seen it, but they say you need to wait at least 3 days after exposure before getting testing.
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busymom
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Post by busymom on Jul 6, 2020 12:42:00 GMT -5
Just saw this, and had to share here:
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Jul 6, 2020 12:43:06 GMT -5
My lovely pro-Trump SIL and her DH (who is 70) are on their annual summer trip to Florida with 3 sets of their friends. She's in the 'we have to live our lives normally and not wear masks or worry so much about this virus, it's just like the flu.' camp. I wouldn't care so much except that she visits my lovely MIL weekly. MIL is 87 and has survived cancer 4 times. MIL is also a Trump supporter but has been taking some steps to avoid exposure, staying at home mostly, and wearing a mask when she gets out out, relying on SIL and my DH to bring her groceries - but my fear is that SIL will get sick and spread it to MIL. SIL insists she will know it if she gets it, and won't go near MIL if she has it. I guess she thinks the disease happens instantaneously, like flipping a light switch. SIL also babysits sometimes for her 6 month old new grand baby who was born with some health issues. Fingers crossed. oof, that's a bit of a ticking time bomb. I understand your stress. people going to do what they do sometimes, we just have to live with it, that includes your MIL and the baby's parents. hopefully they will put their foot down with no visits for weeks after the florida trip. I know it's tough! Probably not, my nephew (dad of baby) is as fiercely pro trump as his mom, my SIL. Nephews wife is a physical therapist, though. Here’s hoping science wins over trumpism.
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justme
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Post by justme on Jul 6, 2020 12:48:31 GMT -5
Ok, I just tuned into like 10 minutes of Desantis' news conference. Forget what I said. We're fucked.
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oped
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Post by oped on Jul 6, 2020 12:52:35 GMT -5
The boy that works with husband sometimes called last night to say his mom was exposed and had a fever last night. I told husband he should stay home but he did not. He isn’t coming near me till she gets her test results. You've problem seen it, but they say you need to wait at least 3 days after exposure before getting testing. I just texted her and she said that she doesn't know that she was exposed. The one positive at her long term care facility was considered a false positive because he later tested negative and so did all around him... ? She said there was a constant long line at the testing place and that she should know by Thursday and is having constant high fevers, nausea and vomiting and major body aches so may equally be something else. That makes me feel somewhat better, but Husband can still keep his distance...
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oped
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Post by oped on Jul 6, 2020 12:53:00 GMT -5
Ok, I just tuned into like 10 minutes of Desantis' news conference. Forget what I said. We're fucked. That bad?
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justme
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Post by justme on Jul 6, 2020 12:59:03 GMT -5
Ok, I just tuned into like 10 minutes of Desantis' news conference. Forget what I said. We're fucked. That bad? He said that back when we had a positive test rate of 1.5% that it was within the false positive range so we might not have even had any cases back then That we're better now than we were in March That 40% of the people coming into the hospital testing positive for covid isn't a big deal because most are in for something else and are asymptomatic Urges to focus on the facts...while he ignores the fact that mandating masks would slow the spread That he didn't think trump was minimizing it when he said 99% of people have no problem with covid And harped a lot about how young people don't get that sick from it so it's a good thing most of the positives are from 20s and 30s. I had stopped listening to his pressers for a while. Forgot the stupid.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jul 6, 2020 13:06:28 GMT -5
He said that back when we had a positive test rate of 1.5% that it was within the false positive range so we might not have even had any cases back then That we're better now than we were in March That 40% of the people coming into the hospital testing positive for covid isn't a big deal because most are in for something else and are asymptomatic Urges to focus on the facts...while he ignores the fact that mandating masks would slow the spread That he didn't think trump was minimizing it when he said 99% of people have no problem with covid And harped a lot about how young people don't get that sick from it so it's a good thing most of the positives are from 20s and 30s. I had stopped listening to his pressers for a while. Forgot the stupid. I guess the 11 yo in Florida who died doesn’t count. Or the 21 yowpenn state student
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NastyWoman
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Post by NastyWoman on Jul 6, 2020 13:24:43 GMT -5
Or tell that to Nick Cordero's wife and 1yo old son. I am sure that will help them deal with their grief/loss of his father.
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busymom
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Post by busymom on Jul 6, 2020 13:36:17 GMT -5
You always need to put on your hip waders before listening to Desantis. I didn't realize what a normal governor I had, before moving to Florida. He really is a special kind of stupid, or, he greatly underestimates the intelligence of his audience.
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NastyWoman
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Post by NastyWoman on Jul 6, 2020 13:46:38 GMT -5
You always need to put on your hip waders before listening to Desantis. I didn't realize what a normal governor I had, before moving to Florida. He really is a special kind of stupid, or, he greatly underestimates the intelligence of his audience. Let's hope he is underestimating the intelligence of his audience. The alternative (wrt his audience) does not bear thinking about.
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