oped
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Post by oped on Apr 10, 2020 9:51:52 GMT -5
We need BOTH kinds of testing. In vast quantities.
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Apr 10, 2020 10:01:54 GMT -5
We need BOTH kinds of testing. In vast quantities. The antibody testing should not have come 2+ months following the viral testing. These are different technologies, there was absolutely no reason why these could not have been developed simultaneously.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Apr 10, 2020 11:01:46 GMT -5
We need BOTH kinds of testing. In vast quantities. The antibody testing should not have come 2+ months following the viral testing. These are different technologies, there was absolutely no reason why these could not have been developed simultaneously. My BIL said his company was working on both and they were balancing resources between the two. Are there distinct skill sets that work on these, and the two don't cross? **I know nothing about any of this and I have conveyed 90% of the info I got from BIL - not a real educational conversation.
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Apr 10, 2020 11:13:13 GMT -5
The antibody testing should not have come 2+ months following the viral testing. These are different technologies, there was absolutely no reason why these could not have been developed simultaneously. My BIL said his company was working on both and they were balancing resources between the two. Are there distinct skill sets that work on these, and the two don't cross? **I know nothing about any of this and I have conveyed 90% of the info I got from BIL - not a real educational conversation. I have the ability to do both, and have done both. I am more proficient in antibody testing as that was 85+% of what my job was. If you have the skill set to do one, you have the skill set to do the other. Other than minor equipment, the requirements for each are totally different. Our lab had the ability to do both sorts of testing simultaneously, and we were a fairly small lab (about 10 at the peak). The major (read costly) equipment is different, no need to share this. I am not sure what sort of ‘balancing the resources’ you’d need as both have different assay supplies (there is some overlap, but IME, usually the overlap is personal - for instance, in our lab each person had their own set of calibrated pipettors) and equipment requirements. That is, unless it was personnel and I can’t imagine that. There is not even the need to share samples. Viral testing is off of swabs, antibody testing is blood /saliva/or other secretions.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Apr 10, 2020 11:39:03 GMT -5
Is there an accuracy issue? The Brits seem to have decided not to pursue antibody testing and accuracy was the reason that they gave.
ETA: they may have used the words "sensitivity" or "reliability" instead. I can't remember.
I found this pretty surprising since the false negative rate and PPE requirements for viral testing are so high.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2020 11:50:10 GMT -5
The question posed to his eminence was there are tens of thousands of tests per day and tracing/quarantine needs to open the country per the doctors.
Trump said there would be testing but not as many tests as they claim are needed and the tracing could be done by "college students" or others who are non-medical and trained to do the job.
We're fucked. Basically.
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Apr 10, 2020 12:23:14 GMT -5
The question posed to his eminence was there are tens of thousands of tests per day and tracing/quarantine needs to open the country per the doctors. Trump said there would be testing but not as many tests as they claim are needed and the tracing could be done by "college students" or others who are non-medical and trained to do the job. We're fucked. Basically. Not entirely incorrect. If research labs are being pushed into service their staff and students who are willing can run the tests. You're going to need a medical professional to collect the sample it but they can run it.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 10, 2020 12:30:32 GMT -5
Contact tracing isn't hard, but it is labor intensive. The people doing it are given a list of questions to ask, and the answers determine where you look. They need to be vigilant, but any person with a reasonable amount of intelligence can do it. Just a lot of grunt work.
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Apr 10, 2020 16:50:17 GMT -5
Today Gov Cuomo was talking about opening the economy. Deaths in NYC are still high, just under 800 day but new hospitalizations are down significantly. A good sign. But I think other parts of US will open sooner than NY/NJ/CT
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Apr 10, 2020 18:02:31 GMT -5
Looks like Massachusetts is vying to takeover 3rd place from Michigan. They'll probably overtake 4th from California tomorrow. I'm guessing today will be the peak for deaths in Michigan--hoping anyway.
Meanwhile, people in Michigan are up in arms over further shopping and travel restrictions. I'm not thrilled with it either, but I understand why it is needed.
ETA: BTW, a new milestone reached for the US--500,000 cases
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saveinla
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Post by saveinla on Apr 10, 2020 18:12:38 GMT -5
Looks like Apple & Google are joining together to develop something for contact tracing. t.co/6LRpCOpqsA
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formerroomate99
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Post by formerroomate99 on Apr 10, 2020 18:18:21 GMT -5
Looks like Massachusetts is vying to takeover 3rd place from Michigan. They'll probably overtake 4th from California tomorrow. I'm guessing today will be the peak for deaths in Michigan--hoping anyway. Meanwhile, people in Michigan are up in arms over further shopping and travel restrictions. I'm not thrilled with it either, but I understand why it is needed. ETA: BTW, a new milestone reached for the US--500,000 cases I'm not surprised. You've got densely populated Boston on one side. No avoiding spreading it there. And the Western half of the state is mired in poverty. My parents are there. They're close to 90, so they don't stand a chance if they get infected. Thankfully, my mother always made sure they had 6 months worth of groceries, and my stepdad FINALLY stopped dragging her out for no good reason when his policeman son and his family got a mild case.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Apr 10, 2020 18:31:53 GMT -5
Looks like Massachusetts is vying to takeover 3rd place from Michigan. They'll probably overtake 4th from California tomorrow. I'm guessing today will be the peak for deaths in Michigan--hoping anyway. Meanwhile, people in Michigan are up in arms over further shopping and travel restrictions. I'm not thrilled with it either, but I understand why it is needed. ETA: BTW, a new milestone reached for the US--500,000 cases I'm pretty terrified by the signals that Mi, NY, and NJ are giving out. We are not following the curves that I expected, or perhaps naively was led to expect. We're apparently hitting plateaus that we were not prepared to last as long as they are lasting. and I am really scared that the rationing of our testing and surveillance tools has left us blind to what is coming next.
Our hospital staff and our first responders have taken one hell of a hit that we may not wake up to for several days. We're kinda in the dark regarding who gets tested, where, why, and what kind of lags we should be accounting for, despite some improved reporting from the state.
The essential workers of our state may have just gotten bashed in a way that will be very hard to understand and learn from.
I pray rarely, but please pay careful attention to what's been happening in the early-cresting states and learn from it. We don't want this kind of hurt to come to you. You don't deserve this kind of hurt either.
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oped
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Post by oped on Apr 10, 2020 18:38:39 GMT -5
Italy has basically been on a plateau for weeks now... Was the expectation that numbers would instantly drop here? The disease takes weeks to appear, worsen and clear...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2020 20:23:51 GMT -5
Italy has basically been on a plateau for weeks now... Was the expectation that numbers would instantly drop here? The disease takes weeks to appear, worsen and clear... The plateau is social distancing slowing the spread as to not overwhelm the healthcare system. It's not doing anything to fight the virus. The graph doesn't drop unless everyone stays distanced and those who have the virus are quarantined. It doesn't "clear" at all. It's here for good. Humans need a vaccine, immunity, and/or a treatment for it. If ALL carriers aren't removed from circulation through testing and contact tracing, then the virus continues to infect people. "Opening up the country" refers to letting people move around again with the risk they will contract the virus, because it's still around. Through testing and quarantine, those numbers can be lowered. Without those things, we have a continual pandemic. www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/2020/03/27/heres-how-much-it-could-cost-if-we-stop-social-distancing/#5c14e8dd6167
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formerroomate99
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Post by formerroomate99 on Apr 10, 2020 20:42:22 GMT -5
Some of the Asian countries, who had already dealt with SARS, used people's cellphones to track who they were in contact with. That allowed them to be very efficient with testing and quarantines. It's a clever strategy, but I doubt that would fly here.
Life2 is right. The best we can hope for between now and the vaccine is to slow the spread to the point where hospitals don't get overwhelmed. And it is a balancing act. The poverty and despair caused by the lockdown unemployment is going to hurt and kill a lot of people too. Their deaths won't be as publicized as the coronavirus deaths, but they're just as tragic.
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giramomma
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Post by giramomma on Apr 11, 2020 9:36:33 GMT -5
Italy has basically been on a plateau for weeks now... Was the expectation that numbers would instantly drop here? The disease takes weeks to appear, worsen and clear... Yes...we're special, here in America...
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movingforward
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Post by movingforward on Apr 11, 2020 9:41:51 GMT -5
Yes, the virus is out there and it isn't going anywhere. Most people are going to be exposed to it and most will live through it.
I work for a board full of medical professionals (including some infection disease doctors). The ONLY reason we are doing this is to not overwhelm the healthcare system; otherwise, we would let this virus run through the community like anything else. We need people to build immunity to this thing...there is also debate about how much harm we are doing to our immune system down the road with all the hyperactive cleaning. Don't get me wrong, it is necessary right now but putting ourselves in a plastic bubble for the next 2 years could end up really bad down the road when it comes to having immunity to other stuff.
I'm not sure why the government can't come up with assistance to help those most vulnerable. I think the vulnerable should be allowed to collect government benefits, including healthcare, until there is a vaccine in place. The other 97% of people wash their hands, stay away from grandma, use common sense, etc.
The idea for everyone to stay under lock and key for 18-24 months is unrealistic. It's not happening without death and destruction and that is NOT okay. The same way it is not okay for people to dismiss the 3% of people that might die from this, it is also not okay for that 3% of the population to say screw you to the other 97% of people. If you try to keep people locked up for 18-24 months they are going to, more than likely, choose to take their risk with the virus. Hell, I know people right now that are high risk that are saying they can't to it much longer. Imagine asking a 25 year old to do it for more than another 2 months...not going to happen.
We don't even know how many people have actually had this thing...the numbers could be way higher than any of us know. With some people showing no symptoms or extremely minor ones we have no clue.
If it were not for the overwhelming fear people have, we would be doing the exact same thing Sweden is doing. I don't want this virus. Nobody wants this virus but it is here and we have to live that reality.
I realize I have an unpopular opinion. Oh, well...
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 11, 2020 9:49:45 GMT -5
Yes, the virus is out there and it isn't going anywhere. Most people are going to be exposed to it and most will live through it.
I work for a board full of medical professionals (including some infection disease doctors). The ONLY reason we are doing this is to not overwhelm the healthcare system; otherwise, we would let this virus run through the community like anything else. We need people to build immunity to this thing...there is also debate about how much harm we are doing to our immune system down the road with all the hyperactive cleaning. Don't get me wrong, it is necessary right now but putting ourselves in a plastic bubble for the next 2 years could end up really bad down the road when it comes to having immunity to other stuff.
I'm not sure why the government can't come up with assistance to help those most vulnerable. I think the vulnerable should be allowed to collect government benefits, including healthcare, until there is a vaccine in place. The other 97% of people wash their hands, stay away from grandma, use common sense, etc.
The idea for everyone to stay under lock and key for 18-24 months is unrealistic. It's not happening without death and destruction and that is NOT okay. The same way it is not okay for people to dismiss the 3% of people that might die from this, it is also not okay for that 3% of the population to say screw you to the other 97% of people. If you try to keep people locked up for 18-24 months they are going to, more than likely, choose to take their risk with the virus. Hell, I know people right now that are high risk that are saying they can't to it much longer. Imagine asking a 25 year old to do it for more than another 2 months...not going to happen.
We don't even know how many people have actually had this thing...the numbers could be way higher than any of us know. With some people showing no symptoms or extremely minor ones we have no clue.
If it were not for the overwhelming fear people have, we would be doing the exact same thing Sweden is doing. I don't want this virus. Nobody wants this virus but it is here and we have to live that reality.
I realize I have an unpopular opinion. Oh, well...
Bravo
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Apr 11, 2020 9:58:45 GMT -5
Yes, the virus is out there and it isn't going anywhere. Most people are going to be exposed to it and most will live through it.
I work for a board full of medical professionals (including some infection disease doctors). The ONLY reason we are doing this is to not overwhelm the healthcare system; otherwise, we would let this virus run through the community like anything else. We need people to build immunity to this thing...there is also debate about how much harm we are doing to our immune system down the road with all the hyperactive cleaning. Don't get me wrong, it is necessary right now but putting ourselves in a plastic bubble for the next 2 years could end up really bad down the road when it comes to having immunity to other stuff.
I'm not sure why the government can't come up with assistance to help those most vulnerable. I think the vulnerable should be allowed to collect government benefits, including healthcare, until there is a vaccine in place. The other 97% of people wash their hands, stay away from grandma, use common sense, etc.
The idea for everyone to stay under lock and key for 18-24 months is unrealistic. It's not happening without death and destruction and that is NOT okay. The same way it is not okay for people to dismiss the 3% of people that might die from this, it is also not okay for that 3% of the population to say screw you to the other 97% of people. If you try to keep people locked up for 18-24 months they are going to, more than likely, choose to take their risk with the virus. Hell, I know people right now that are high risk that are saying they can't to it much longer. Imagine asking a 25 year old to do it for more than another 2 months...not going to happen.
We don't even know how many people have actually had this thing...the numbers could be way higher than any of us know. With some people showing no symptoms or extremely minor ones we have no clue.
If it were not for the overwhelming fear people have, we would be doing the exact same thing Sweden is doing. I don't want this virus. Nobody wants this virus but it is here and we have to live that reality.
I realize I have an unpopular opinion. Oh, well...
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oped
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Post by oped on Apr 11, 2020 10:17:31 GMT -5
Please show me where AT ALL anyone here or anywhere has advocated a complete lock down for 18 - 24 months?
There are lots of potential options for how to handle this situation from where we are now to vaccine... the do require certain steps be taken, metrics improved, infection and antibody testing developed and widespread... but no one that i have seen... except the fear mongers here frankly, have suggested that the only options are stay inside for 18-24 months... or let everybody get it.
Either of those is just as problematic. Sorry. What we need is a reasonable, coordinated and multi faceted approach based on science...
You can release everyone tomorrow... and many, many people are not going anywhere until there is a reasonable approach they can believe in.
And 3%? that isn't close to the hospitalization rate for this thing... especially with the current data we have...
Is that what you really think is happening here? 3% are saying 'screw you' to 97% ? Seriously?
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lynnerself
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Post by lynnerself on Apr 11, 2020 10:31:26 GMT -5
My governor shut down everything pretty early. And as a high risk patient I agreed and applauded her choices. But now we are seeing at most 5 death a day, hospitals at 60% capacity and massive economic fall out. Schools will not open until fall. I am hoping within a couple of weeks we think about opening up some things and see what is sustainable. And individuals will have to assess their own risk and make choices. ETA: According to IHME our peak is due in about 3 weeks. But our curve is so flat that the peak is not that much different than the rest of the curve. And surprising (or not) I think the IHME curve has a piece of bad data on it. It shows 11 deaths on April 9th, and that's not what the state reported.
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Apr 11, 2020 10:34:49 GMT -5
Yes, the virus is out there and it isn't going anywhere. Most people are going to be exposed to it and most will live through it.
I work for a board full of medical professionals (including some infection disease doctors). The ONLY reason we are doing this is to not overwhelm the healthcare system; otherwise, we would let this virus run through the community like anything else. We need people to build immunity to this thing...there is also debate about how much harm we are doing to our immune system down the road with all the hyperactive cleaning. Don't get me wrong, it is necessary right now but putting ourselves in a plastic bubble for the next 2 years could end up really bad down the road when it comes to having immunity to other stuff.
I'm not sure why the government can't come up with assistance to help those most vulnerable. I think the vulnerable should be allowed to collect government benefits, including healthcare, until there is a vaccine in place. The other 97% of people wash their hands, stay away from grandma, use common sense, etc.
The idea for everyone to stay under lock and key for 18-24 months is unrealistic. It's not happening without death and destruction and that is NOT okay. The same way it is not okay for people to dismiss the 3% of people that might die from this, it is also not okay for that 3% of the population to say screw you to the other 97% of people. If you try to keep people locked up for 18-24 months they are going to, more than likely, choose to take their risk with the virus. Hell, I know people right now that are high risk that are saying they can't to it much longer. Imagine asking a 25 year old to do it for more than another 2 months...not going to happen.
We don't even know how many people have actually had this thing...the numbers could be way higher than any of us know. With some people showing no symptoms or extremely minor ones we have no clue.
If it were not for the overwhelming fear people have, we would be doing the exact same thing Sweden is doing. I don't want this virus. Nobody wants this virus but it is here and we have to live that reality.
I realize I have an unpopular opinion. Oh, well...
The 3% is just the possible death rate, within a bigger range (0.someting to 12% looks like in Italy right now). The number I saw for hospitalizations was 15-20%. I also read where there is permanent lung damage caused by this, even if the result wasn't death. I don't know about you, but I don't feel like getting so sick that I'm hospitalized and possibly have lung damage for the rest of my life. But no, no-one is calling for this extent of shutdown for 18 months. We can't keep going like this for that long. Like I said elsewhere, taken far enough, most jobs are ultimately essential.
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oped
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Post by oped on Apr 11, 2020 10:38:53 GMT -5
My governor shut down everything pretty early. And as a high risk patient I agreed and applauded her choices. But now we are seeing at most 5 death a day, hospitals at 60% capacity and massive economic fall out. Schools will not open until fall. I am hoping within a couple of weeks we think about opening up some things and see what is sustainable. And individuals will have to assess their own risk and make choices. Which state?
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lynnerself
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Post by lynnerself on Apr 11, 2020 10:39:45 GMT -5
My governor shut down everything pretty early. And as a high risk patient I agreed and applauded her choices. But now we are seeing at most 5 death a day, hospitals at 60% capacity and massive economic fall out. Schools will not open until fall. I am hoping within a couple of weeks we think about opening up some things and see what is sustainable. And individuals will have to assess their own risk and make choices. Which state? Oregon
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Apr 11, 2020 10:41:21 GMT -5
Yes, the virus is out there and it isn't going anywhere. Most people are going to be exposed to it and most will live through it.
I work for a board full of medical professionals (including some infection disease doctors). The ONLY reason we are doing this is to not overwhelm the healthcare system; otherwise, we would let this virus run through the community like anything else. We need people to build immunity to this thing...there is also debate about how much harm we are doing to our immune system down the road with all the hyperactive cleaning. Don't get me wrong, it is necessary right now but putting ourselves in a plastic bubble for the next 2 years could end up really bad down the road when it comes to having immunity to other stuff.
I'm not sure why the government can't come up with assistance to help those most vulnerable. I think the vulnerable should be allowed to collect government benefits, including healthcare, until there is a vaccine in place. The other 97% of people wash their hands, stay away from grandma, use common sense, etc.
The idea for everyone to stay under lock and key for 18-24 months is unrealistic. It's not happening without death and destruction and that is NOT okay. The same way it is not okay for people to dismiss the 3% of people that might die from this, it is also not okay for that 3% of the population to say screw you to the other 97% of people. If you try to keep people locked up for 18-24 months they are going to, more than likely, choose to take their risk with the virus. Hell, I know people right now that are high risk that are saying they can't to it much longer. Imagine asking a 25 year old to do it for more than another 2 months...not going to happen.
We don't even know how many people have actually had this thing...the numbers could be way higher than any of us know. With some people showing no symptoms or extremely minor ones we have no clue.
If it were not for the overwhelming fear people have, we would be doing the exact same thing Sweden is doing. I don't want this virus. Nobody wants this virus but it is here and we have to live that reality.
I realize I have an unpopular opinion. Oh, well...
Sweden’s experiment has failed, as has U.K., who tried this and saw their medical facilities overrun. Now they have draconian restrictions trying to dial it back in. Sweden’s cases have skyrocketed, and it overwhelming their healthcare now, so they are moving in this direction too. It isn’t just fear, it is the allocation of resources.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 10:52:50 GMT -5
If you "open things up" without knowing who is asymptomatically walking around spreading the virus, how is that at all helpful? BTW, it isn't 3% who end up hospitalized. It's 20% of the people who get the virus. Of those, a decent percentage die and others end up with life-long lung damage. And, there isn't a specific age or condition this infects that has yet been identified. So, if you send your kids back to school without knowing who's infected at the school you may be sending them to get sick. There have been children who have died who had no preexisting conditions. So, you can be fine with taking chances with your own life or your childrens' lives, but you also will be potentially killing off other people who may not be making the same choice if any of you happen to be asymptomatic. As for Sweden: ""We are scientists. We don't trust authorities. We trust data. And we don't see the data that supports that we should go for this strategy as the only country in the world," Soderberg-Naucler told Reuters. "And when you get into an overload in the healthcare system, you don't have a choice to close down. You will have to close down, and it would have been better to do that earlier so we can keep this in a controlled situation." Soderberg-Naucler was one of the more than 2,300 Swedish researchers who demanded stricter regulations in an open letter late last month, two days after the United Kingdom imposed a nationwide lockdown." www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-lockdown-scientists-restrictions-2020-4China is also having problems already since they "opened up" their country.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 11, 2020 10:54:45 GMT -5
What moving forward posted is the message that the administration should have been relating on a daily basis, and done it consistently. We are in uncharted territory, but all we are doing now is to prevent the whole nation from looking like NYC, and buying time. The minute the state of emergency was declared, plans for how we end it and state society back up should have been a major point of focus. Just yesterday trump discussed having a panel to look into it. Well, what have they been doing for the last month then, playing with themselves. This is why I believe the whole response has been a mess. He has been reactive the whole time. Some of that is not his fault, but his inability to accept advice and admit mistakes has led us here
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Apr 11, 2020 11:02:36 GMT -5
I don't think we should be Sweden. I think if we as a country hadn't had our heads up our butts for so long and treated public health (and this goes from the corona virus to drug addiction to HIV to gun violence) as a moral/God given rights issue we could have handled this like South Korea did.. or even better.
But we didn't so here we are and I get that. Doesn't mean it doesn't piss me off.
I also am starting to feel like we can't legislate away stupid. Unless we are going to be an authoritarian state like China, which I can imagine would NOT go well in this country, no matter how hard we try you're going to still have those people who take 20+ of their family members to the lake. We can't protect them from themselves forever nor can we really protect ourselves from them forever. How long do I have to twist myself into a pretzel to try to reduce the damage their stupidity wreaks? It's exhausting mentally.
I figure at some point all those things are going to reach equlibrium and decisions will have to be made. It sounds like the CDC is already discussing that from what I read. I'm fine with taking gradual steps and following the rules. I just can't live with this constant state of pressure and anxiety for no 18 months. I could handle having to wear a mask and keep being OCD about hand washing if it meant I could go farther than the grocery store or around the block.
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movingforward
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Post by movingforward on Apr 11, 2020 11:14:44 GMT -5
Don't get me wrong...I don't think we SHOULD be doing what Sweden is doing. I believe we WOULD be doing what they are doing if we didn't have the overwhelming fear of the entire country becoming NYC. I don't believe our administration gives two shits about people. They sat with their thumbs up their asses for months with no plan in place.
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