Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Mar 25, 2020 20:45:54 GMT -5
ok - so I have been kind of keeping tabs on this - and I noticed something kind of frightening. In Italy - they went from 20k cases to 60k cases in 18 days....... www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/Linear graph with blue line.......total cases In the US - we went from 20k cases to 60k cases in 5 days. www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/need to scroll a bit to get to the linear graph with blue line - total cases. I'm about to poop myself here. I know we are much larger/spread out, but I can't think of a way to tell myself that the upward trajectory of the US graph isn't really bad. Like - really bad for us.
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CCL
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Post by CCL on Mar 25, 2020 20:50:52 GMT -5
The first link doesn't work for me.
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Artemis Windsong
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Post by Artemis Windsong on Mar 25, 2020 20:57:00 GMT -5
We did a turn around trip to CA because there was 1, that's right, one case on March 8. AZ was about the same time frame of 1. I'm not sure how many now. Sublette County in WY had no cases. Zero, none. There are 5,000 people in 10,000 acres, They also have no hospitals.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Mar 25, 2020 21:01:05 GMT -5
The US, at the current trajectory, will dwarf China and Italy. Because there is a petulant toddler at the helm
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Mar 25, 2020 21:02:10 GMT -5
The first link doesn't work for me. I changed it and it worked for me...but looked the same? who knows... Can also navigate from the second link if it still doesn't work...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 25, 2020 21:03:15 GMT -5
Exponential growth.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Mar 25, 2020 21:04:37 GMT -5
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souldoubt
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Post by souldoubt on Mar 25, 2020 21:07:35 GMT -5
The US has over 5x the population of Italy so even looking at how quick both got to 60K cases Italy was worse. An estimated 100K individuals from Wuhan working in Northern Italy with direct flights between Italy/Wuhan and it's no surprise why. New York currently has 10x the cases of California while having about 7% of all reported cases in the world. Large, densely populated areas will get worse before they get better and they only get better if people follow the lock downs.
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busymom
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Post by busymom on Mar 25, 2020 21:19:57 GMT -5
The market moved in the right direction once again. The Dow closed at +496.
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Lizard Queen
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103/2024
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Post by Lizard Queen on Mar 25, 2020 21:22:15 GMT -5
When the US has not been testing. Now it's testing more. It was here, and much more prevalent than the early numbers indicate. It's better now, but I doubt it's that much better.
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giramomma
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Post by giramomma on Mar 25, 2020 21:32:04 GMT -5
The US has over 5x the population of Italy so even looking at how quick both got to 60K cases Italy was worse. An estimated 100K individuals from Wuhan working in Northern Italy with direct flights between Italy/Wuhan and it's no surprise why. New York currently has 10x the cases of California while having about 7% of all reported cases in the world. Large, densely populated areas will get worse before they get better and they only get better if people follow the lock downs. Even though New York has the highest infection rate, they don't have the highest death rate. Louisiana and Georgia have a 3% death rate, which is over twice the death rate as NY. There's only a handful of states that have close to, or over a 3% death rate, with only one state, Washington...having a plausible reason why. The rest of the states with high death rates are not densely populated....and that would make me curious as to what's going on in those states... coronavirus.1point3acres.com/#stat
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giramomma
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Post by giramomma on Mar 25, 2020 21:36:10 GMT -5
By COB Friday/Saturday, I'd figured we'd be up to 100K infections and 1K deaths.
We're past 1K deaths already, and getting ready to make 1500 by the end of the week.
I'm not sure, now, we'll see 100K confirmed infections, we'll come in lower than that.
I wish the numbers were flipped....
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MN-Investor
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Post by MN-Investor on Mar 25, 2020 21:37:08 GMT -5
Even though New York has the highest infection rate, they don't have the highest death rate. Louisiana and Georgia have a 3% death rate, which is over twice the death rate as NY. There's only a handful of states that have close to, or over a 3% death rate, with only one state, Washington...having a plausible reason why. The rest of the states with high death rates are not densely populated....and that would make me curious as to what's going on in those states... coronavirus.1point3acres.com/#statDon't put too much stock in those numbers at this point. With the lack of testing, there really aren't great numbers for who has and hasn't had COVID-19, nor who has died from it.
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giramomma
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Post by giramomma on Mar 25, 2020 21:46:49 GMT -5
Even though New York has the highest infection rate, they don't have the highest death rate. Louisiana and Georgia have a 3% death rate, which is over twice the death rate as NY. There's only a handful of states that have close to, or over a 3% death rate, with only one state, Washington...having a plausible reason why. The rest of the states with high death rates are not densely populated....and that would make me curious as to what's going on in those states... coronavirus.1point3acres.com/#statDon't put too much stock in those numbers at this point. With the lack of testing, there really aren't great numbers for who has and hasn't had COVID-19, nor who has died from it. Actually, I find that the numbers are about a day ahead of what my local new reports as well as national news. If you scroll down the page to some other charts, you'll also find that by this time measured from the first day 100 cases are confirmed, China was starting to level off. They had a another little bump but the curve was flattened. Italy and the US, not so much. And the growth rate in the US is slightly hire than italy, but far less than China. At day 23, China had 2/3 the number of cases we do.
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CCL
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Post by CCL on Mar 26, 2020 5:08:14 GMT -5
Even though New York has the highest infection rate, they don't have the highest death rate. Louisiana and Georgia have a 3% death rate, which is over twice the death rate as NY. There's only a handful of states that have close to, or over a 3% death rate, with only one state, Washington...having a plausible reason why. The rest of the states with high death rates are not densely populated....and that would make me curious as to what's going on in those states... coronavirus.1point3acres.com/#statDon't put too much stock in those numbers at this point. With the lack of testing, there really aren't great numbers for who has and hasn't had COVID-19, nor who has died from it. Agree. The data is too limited to be very accurate.
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mary2029
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Post by mary2029 on Mar 26, 2020 5:53:53 GMT -5
Don't put too much stock in those numbers at this point. With the lack of testing, there really aren't great numbers for who has and hasn't had COVID-19, nor who has died from it. Actually, I find that the numbers are about a day ahead of what my local new reports as well as national news. If you scroll down the page to some other charts, you'll also find that by this time measured from the first day 100 cases are confirmed, China was starting to level off. They had a another little bump but the curve was flattened. Italy and the US, not so much. And the growth rate in the US is slightly hire than italy, but far less than China. At day 23, China had 2/3 the number of cases we do. If you believe the numbers that China has provided...
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Mar 26, 2020 6:58:55 GMT -5
Actually, I find that the numbers are about a day ahead of what my local new reports as well as national news. If you scroll down the page to some other charts, you'll also find that by this time measured from the first day 100 cases are confirmed, China was starting to level off. They had a another little bump but the curve was flattened. Italy and the US, not so much. And the growth rate in the US is slightly hire than italy, but far less than China. At day 23, China had 2/3 the number of cases we do. If you believe the numbers that China has provided... You think ours are accurate?
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azucena
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Post by azucena on Mar 26, 2020 7:00:04 GMT -5
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2020 7:02:27 GMT -5
Even though New York has the highest infection rate, they don't have the highest death rate. Louisiana and Georgia have a 3% death rate, which is over twice the death rate as NY. There's only a handful of states that have close to, or over a 3% death rate, with only one state, Washington...having a plausible reason why. The rest of the states with high death rates are not densely populated....and that would make me curious as to what's going on in those states... coronavirus.1point3acres.com/#statDon't put too much stock in those numbers at this point. With the lack of testing, there really aren't great numbers for who has and hasn't had COVID-19, nor who has died from it. Exactly. Some states are testing a lot more people than others. It could be the states with high death rates are only testing the seriously ill.
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raeoflyte
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Post by raeoflyte on Mar 26, 2020 8:48:15 GMT -5
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Miss Tequila
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Post by Miss Tequila on Mar 26, 2020 9:42:57 GMT -5
It’s terrifying to me. And people are still not taking it seriously. We should be able to track the people that didn’t adhere to the “stay the fuck home” and if it’s between them and someone who listened needing a ventilator, the ones who listened should get them.
People are literally out shopping at our local Lowe’s getting supplies for spring landscaping, paint, etc. And on Sunday a Lowe’s employee was diagnosed with it. And he was an idiot that went to NYC! So idiots are containing the rest of us and I’m sick of it
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2020 9:50:17 GMT -5
The Cliff's Notes version - hundreds of thousands of dead in the US and a need to socially distance until a vaccine is created. It basically says the same thing as all the other scientific research on the topic. As soon as people stop socially distancing expect more outbreaks and the only way to prevent it is avoiding other people for the long-haul.
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teen persuasion
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Post by teen persuasion on Mar 26, 2020 10:43:23 GMT -5
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oped
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Post by oped on Mar 26, 2020 10:52:27 GMT -5
Actually, I find that the numbers are about a day ahead of what my local new reports as well as national news. If you scroll down the page to some other charts, you'll also find that by this time measured from the first day 100 cases are confirmed, China was starting to level off. They had a another little bump but the curve was flattened. Italy and the US, not so much. And the growth rate in the US is slightly hire than italy, but far less than China. At day 23, China had 2/3 the number of cases we do. If you believe the numbers that China has provided... If you believe we are testing adequately for what is here...
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Mar 26, 2020 11:11:06 GMT -5
It's going to take a very long time for the reported case counts in the US to take a hopeful turn, given the constraints on testing that we're currently seeing.
It's very hard to find solid and timely information regarding how many tests are being done, what the testing capacity is in any given state or county. In many cities and hospitals in the US the only people being tested are hospitalized patients and first responders who have had contact with them.
In my own state, almost all of the new cases being reported are in the three counties that have testing facilities and the rest of the state is showing almost no cases. This is probably due to how testing is being rationed outside of the counties with hospitals and labs that perform the test.
My own state stopped reporting the number of probable cases being investigated and the number of tests being performed daily, almost 2 weeks ago. Your state or county may be even farther behind the curve than my own in terms of testing.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2020 11:23:24 GMT -5
It's frightening they say: "The U.S. has fewer hospital beds per capita than Italy. A study released by a team at Imperial College London concluded that if the pandemic is left unchecked, those beds will all be full by late April. By the end of June, for every available critical-care bed, there will be roughly 15 COVID-19 patients in need of one. By the end of the summer, the pandemic will have directly killed 2.2 million Americans, notwithstanding those who will indirectly die as hospitals are unable to care for the usual slew of heart attacks, strokes, and car accidents." I've thought for a while as soon as the media starts showing videos of people gasping for breath and dying outside hospitals here in the US, then people will finally understand what this actually is. And, it will be too late to do anything productive about it. It sucks, because if this country had leadership and started testing, etc... earlier, millions of people didn't have to die. Since there is no leadership, healthcare collapse is a done deal at this point and many, many healthcare providers will needlessly die as well. When Italy had 7K infected, 10%+ of those were healthcare workers. For some reason, Americans at large even today don't seem to think people in this country can die in the streets, yet they are and will be for months to come.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Mar 26, 2020 11:27:56 GMT -5
There's also the fact that alot of people won't get tested at all. A friend and his wife both got sick (fever, headache, cough) about 8 days ago as we were all starting to work from home and as the schools were shutting down. as of today they are both feeling better, but never went to the doctor. One of my brothers just reported this morning that as of last night they have a fever and are achey/headachy with a cough out of the blue (they were fine 24 hours ago). I suspect he will not see a doctor unless it gets way worse (as in they can't breathe). I suspect his wife will get it too and if it's mild/medium she won't go to a doctor.
At this point I'm assuming all of the reporting based on actual tests are for people who are sick enough to be in a hospital (or who are sick and already in a medical type environment like a nursing home or assisted living) and for well to do people - they have healthcare and a regular doctor and they are in "important" positions with their employer (like a director or manager or CEO). The average working joe and jane aren't gonna get tested.
So, in my head, I'm doubling/tripling the "new cases" numbers - cause if there's 1000 new cases that are confirmed - there's probably actual 2 or 3 times that number in reality...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2020 11:31:53 GMT -5
On Cuomo's presser this morning he said it's estimated 1 in every 3 people in NYC is currently infected.
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souldoubt
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Post by souldoubt on Mar 26, 2020 11:38:14 GMT -5
Like others have said I would think the actual number of infected is much higher than the reported number. Many people who get a cough or even the flu don't go to the hospital unless it gets bad or drags on because they're just going to tell you to stay home, rest, get plenty of liquids, etc. Obviously if you're older or have a compromised immune system then a hospital trip makes more sense but the last thing hospitals need right now is people with mild symptoms showing up. Problem is too many people already treat the ER like their primary care physician and show up when their kid has the sniffles.
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mary2029
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Post by mary2029 on Mar 26, 2020 11:55:11 GMT -5
If you believe the numbers that China has provided... You think ours are accurate? Absolutely not! I don't think any countries' numbers are accurate at this point, but I definitely don't believe China's.
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