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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 11:19:42 GMT -5
The answer is known. It's mass testing and isolation of the sick/asymptomatic carriers. Trump said yesterday in his presser this country won't be able to do as many tests or the tracing necessary to do so safely and didn't sound like he has any plans to bother will all that annoying testing anyway. This is what gets under my skin. Caring more about the economy over health means a worse Phase 2 than Phase 1 so he can get votes in November. Open the country, be the hero, and then find out it made millions of people sick... I agree you can't keep the country/world locked down forever, but without getting all of the people out of circulation that are infected, everyone is at higher risk - including the healthcare system. Are people going to agree to quarantine and give the government truthful information about all of their contacts? I think that's a huge hurdle for this country. Huge. Plus I think they said it is taking 100,000 "tracers" working in another smaller country to stay on top of the work. At this point, Trump said they could easily train some college students to do the job. "They say blunt social distancing measures need to remain in place until the worst has passed and the number of new cases is declining. At that point, having a system of testing and tracing ready to go will be key. “We better be careful about declaring victory just because you've turned the corner on a curve,” Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, said Thursday on CNN. “When we turn the corner and it goes down, we have to have in place the ability to do the kind of containment that's pristine — namely, you test like crazy, you identify people, you isolate them and you do contact tracing.”" thehill.com/policy/healthcare/491128-testing-struggles-emerge-as-key-hurdle-to-reopening-country
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 11, 2020 11:27:36 GMT -5
The answer is known. It's mass testing and isolation of the sick/asymptomatic carriers. Trump said yesterday in his presser this country won't be able to do as many tests or the tracing necessary to do so safely and didn't sound like he has any plans to bother will all that annoying testing anyway. This is what gets under my skin. Caring more about the economy over health means a worse Phase 2 than Phase 1 so he can get votes in November. Open the country, be the hero, and then find out it made millions of people sick... I agree you can't keep the country/world locked down forever, but without getting all of the people out of circulation that are infected, everyone is at higher risk - including the healthcare system. Are people going to agree to quarantine and give the government truthful information about all of their contacts? I think that's a huge hurdle for this country. Huge. Plus I think they said it is taking 100,000 "tracers" working in another smaller country to stay on top of the work. At this point, Trump said they could easily train some college students to do the job. "They say blunt social distancing measures need to remain in place until the worst has passed and the number of new cases is declining. At that point, having a system of testing and tracing ready to go will be key. “We better be careful about declaring victory just because you've turned the corner on a curve,” Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, said Thursday on CNN. “When we turn the corner and it goes down, we have to have in place the ability to do the kind of containment that's pristine — namely, you test like crazy, you identify people, you isolate them and you do contact tracing.”" thehill.com/policy/healthcare/491128-testing-struggles-emerge-as-key-hurdle-to-reopening-countryActually, we think we know, but we truly can’t be sure, because there are too many unknowns about he virus. You may be right about what you posted, but it is all theoretical. I think people are immune after infection, makes sense from a scientific standpoint. But this is in the same family as other cold viruses. What if immunity wanes? Maybe some people really are less susceptible and get only minor symptoms. The information about who is immune may take months to obtain as we still do not have a test. We at some point need to have a leap of faith. Which is difficult when you have a president with his head up his ass. But realize, people who are chronically ill and patients who develop a problem like cancer need to be cared for, so the medical system has to be able to do things to care for these people, which is difficult in the current lockdown
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oped
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Post by oped on Apr 11, 2020 11:27:40 GMT -5
Fuck. And Italy is over 4000 new cases again... SK held under 50 at 30.
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movingforward
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Post by movingforward on Apr 11, 2020 11:27:41 GMT -5
Please show me where AT ALL anyone here or anywhere has advocated a complete lock down for 18 - 24 months? There are lots of potential options for how to handle this situation from where we are now to vaccine... the do require certain steps be taken, metrics improved, infection and antibody testing developed and widespread... but no one that i have seen... except the fear mongers here frankly, have suggested that the only options are stay inside for 18-24 months... or let everybody get it. Either of those is just as problematic. Sorry. What we need is a reasonable, coordinated and multi faceted approach based on science... You can release everyone tomorrow... and many, many people are not going anywhere until there is a reasonable approach they can believe in. And 3%? that isn't close to the hospitalization rate for this thing... especially with the current data we have... Is that what you really think is happening here? 3% are saying 'screw you' to 97% ? Seriously?
Sometimes I do feel this way...I keep seeing that we can't open up the country when the numbers go down because the virus will continue to spread. If they aren't trying to say we need to stay under shelter at home until a vaccine, then I don't know what they ARE trying to say. It feels very dismissive of those of us that are stressed about losing our jobs, etc.
And I should not have thrown out a statistic. Honestly, I don't trust any of the statistics since we have no earthly idea how many people have or have had this thing.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 11, 2020 11:32:31 GMT -5
Fuck. And Italy is over 4000 new cases again... SK held under 50 at 30. The number of new cases is the least accurate number. Again, hospital admissions and ER visits for respiratory illness/ pneumonia will tell you the most information. Those are the most sensitive sign as to whether it is improving or not. My hospital is running out of testing supplies, so patients with mild illness are not being tested. But we still can easily count admissions
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oped
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Post by oped on Apr 11, 2020 11:36:57 GMT -5
South Korea is testing much more than we are.... and consistency is an issue, regardless of HOW they are counting... Italy has been at the same spot for over 3 weeks now... their new case and death numbers haven't moved much. ... ie. They don't seem to be breaking the plateau.
The serious/critical numbers don't tell me much honestly. I haven't seen hospitalizations etc. data on Italy and SK... if you have a source I'd love to read it.
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Apr 11, 2020 11:39:59 GMT -5
Please show me where AT ALL anyone here or anywhere has advocated a complete lock down for 18 - 24 months? There are lots of potential options for how to handle this situation from where we are now to vaccine... the do require certain steps be taken, metrics improved, infection and antibody testing developed and widespread... but no one that i have seen... except the fear mongers here frankly, have suggested that the only options are stay inside for 18-24 months... or let everybody get it. Either of those is just as problematic. Sorry. What we need is a reasonable, coordinated and multi faceted approach based on science... You can release everyone tomorrow... and many, many people are not going anywhere until there is a reasonable approach they can believe in. And 3%? that isn't close to the hospitalization rate for this thing... especially with the current data we have... Is that what you really think is happening here? 3% are saying 'screw you' to 97% ? Seriously?
Sometimes I do feel this way...I keep seeing that we can't open up the country when the numbers go down because the virus will continue to spread. If they aren't trying to say we need to stay under shelter at home until a vaccine, then I don't know what they ARE trying to say. It feels very dismissive of those of us that are stressed about losing our jobs, etc.
And I should not have thrown out a statistic. Honestly, I don't trust any of the statistics since we have no earthly idea how many people have or have had this thing.
Yeah my SIL went off on me about how selfish I was for going to work. DH, rightfully, pointed out that I work in a lab. Unless they are going to build me one in the garage I have to go in. I am tempted to show her my official letter from Homeland security and tell her to take it up with them. It's exhausting to deal with because people don't understand what I do for a living. Hell WE don't consider ourselves essential enough to be at work right now but here we are! Walking off my job is NOT an option so what am I supposed to do? Believe me the dichotomy between what I "should" be doing vs what I am actually doing take a serious toll on my mental health. I also don't feel that it is right that my company can exploit the fact we're part of the food chain to keep us open but someone who owns their own salon cannot work right now. I know that is beyond my control but having just had DH come off a round of unemployment I understand the fear and uncertainty these people are going through. So yeah there are days when I feel like we should let nature take it's course and get it over with. Logically I know this is incorrect and that this is not truly going to last as it stands forever, or probably even 18 months. But when you're this wrapped up in anxiety your brain will consider just about anything to relieve it. I also worry about people with worse issues than me. I have not looked because I don't really want to know but I imagine suicide rates are starting to skyrocket. Those deaths are just as tragic as those from corona. While I don't think people really think it, when they open their mouths to speak sometimes I get the impression that as long as it is not them getting corona then any other death is worth the sacrifice. Maybe that is their way to cope with the enormity of the situation, IDK. I don't think anyone is getting out of these without some form of mental trauma.
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movingforward
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Post by movingforward on Apr 11, 2020 11:49:46 GMT -5
I do believe the CARES act will help in the short term. A lot of my board members have applied for the payment protection program and SBA loans. This will sustain their private practices for a while. Most are only seeing patients 1-2 days week for emergency visits only. This will absolutely help for a couple of months. Past that things will start to get bad for them though, and those with chronic conditions need to get treatment.
The extra $600 a week for unemployment will also sustain people for a bit. I think everyone can make it a few months with the current situation. It is the months past that which are concerning me.
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Apr 11, 2020 11:53:10 GMT -5
South Korea is testing much more than we are.... and consistency is an issue, regardless of HOW they are counting... Italy has been at the same spot for over 3 weeks now... their new case and death numbers haven't moved much. ... ie. They don't seem to be breaking the plateau. The serious/critical numbers don't tell me much honestly. I haven't seen hospitalizations etc. data on Italy and SK... if you have a source I'd love to read it. But...but.....Trump keeps crowing about how the USA is testing more than any other country! Don't tell me he was (gasp) LYING? Could it be?
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movingforward
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Post by movingforward on Apr 11, 2020 11:56:21 GMT -5
South Korea is testing much more than we are.... and consistency is an issue, regardless of HOW they are counting... Italy has been at the same spot for over 3 weeks now... their new case and death numbers haven't moved much. ... ie. They don't seem to be breaking the plateau. The serious/critical numbers don't tell me much honestly. I haven't seen hospitalizations etc. data on Italy and SK... if you have a source I'd love to read it. But...but.....Trump keeps crowing about how the USA is testing more than any other country! Don't tell me he was (gasp) LYING? Could it be? And he was spouting off about how other countries are looking to us for guidance and help
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oped
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Post by oped on Apr 11, 2020 11:57:33 GMT -5
I should say more... apx 9900 per million vs 7700 per million... but they also seem to be testing much BETTER than us... with better protocols and results.
I also think the per million test rate is skewed by the infection rate... since people need to be tested 3 times at least to recover... and I'm not sure how that impacts the numbers.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 11:59:25 GMT -5
Actually, we think we know, but we truly can’t be sure, because there are too many unknowns about he virus. You may be right about what you posted, but it is all theoretical. I think people are immune after infection, makes sense from a scientific standpoint. But this is in the same family as other cold viruses. What if immunity wanes? Maybe some people really are less susceptible and get only minor symptoms. The information about who is immune may take months to obtain as we still do not have a test. We at some point need to have a leap of faith. Which is difficult when you have a president with his head up his ass. But realize, people who are chronically ill and patients who develop a problem like cancer need to be cared for, so the medical system has to be able to do things to care for these people, which is difficult in the current lockdown I have a hematoma completely filling one of the four compartments of my lower leg from a fall over a month ago. So, I get it. I was told I might need it evacuated and right now that can only be done if I start losing feeling or blood flow to my foot... My son is having non-epileptic seizures again and previously has lost the ability to breathe or swallow. We can't establish him with a doctor here or get his antidepressant prescription medication refilled. And, the last place I want him to end up now is in an ER.
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Apr 11, 2020 12:01:44 GMT -5
But...but.....Trump keeps crowing about how the USA is testing more than any other country! Don't tell me he was (gasp) LYING? Could it be? And he was spouting off about how other countries are looking to us for guidance and help Canada IS looking at the USA..... .....as an example of what NOT TO DO.
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Apr 11, 2020 12:24:31 GMT -5
Don't get me wrong...I don't think we SHOULD be doing what Sweden is doing. I believe we WOULD be doing what they are doing if we didn't have the overwhelming fear of the entire country becoming NYC. I don't believe our administration gives two shits about people. They sat with their thumbs up their asses for months with no plan in place.
But they have shown in their much less populated country that it will even overwhelm local resources. My local hospital has 241 beds for a population that serves almost 90,000 in the city and 230,000 in the county. Assuming if 10% of the city is infected and 20% need hospitalization, that is a need for 1800 hospital beds. We are not NYC. Last time I looked, we had about 200 identified cases in the county, 20 deaths. However, our testing got shut down a week ago courtesy of testing supplies getting shanghaied b6 FEMA. Luckily, we got shut down fairly fast and healthcare is capable of working with its resources. I would hate to have seen what would have happened if the governor had dithered on doing this. They recently dismantled the field hospital that they put up in Seattle, thinking that it might be necessary. It was not. But the fact that the effort that it was put up in the first place pisses off a group of local people as they thought it was a waste of $$. Had the medical resources been overrun, then there would not have been this Monday morning quarterbacking. I much prefer my government have a Plan B. My local one does, the government does not.
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Apr 11, 2020 12:25:57 GMT -5
South Korea is testing much more than we are.... and consistency is an issue, regardless of HOW they are counting... Italy has been at the same spot for over 3 weeks now... their new case and death numbers haven't moved much. ... ie. They don't seem to be breaking the plateau. The serious/critical numbers don't tell me much honestly. I haven't seen hospitalizations etc. data on Italy and SK... if you have a source I'd love to read it. But...but.....Trump keeps crowing about how the USA is testing more than any other country! Don't tell me he was (gasp) LYING? Could it be? Everyone knows tRump lies. This is old news.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 12:31:14 GMT -5
But...but.....Trump keeps crowing about how the USA is testing more than any other country! Don't tell me he was (gasp) LYING? Could it be? Everyone knows tRump lies. This is old news. The question is why people stand for it. It's now literally killing people, and yet on and on he goes.
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Apr 11, 2020 12:34:50 GMT -5
Everyone knows tRump lies. This is old news. The question is why people stand for it. It's now literally killing people, and yet on and on he goes. What do you do? Call him on it? He lies when you do that. The repercussion is that I assume he is lying if he is talking. I imagine I’m not the only one. He has cried ‘wolf’ one too many times, but the wolf has decided he is unpalatable. Too bad.
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Apr 11, 2020 12:35:31 GMT -5
But...but.....Trump keeps crowing about how the USA is testing more than any other country! Don't tell me he was (gasp) LYING? Could it be? Everyone knows tRump lies. This is old news. Have we met? I was being facetious.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 11, 2020 12:47:17 GMT -5
Don't get me wrong...I don't think we SHOULD be doing what Sweden is doing. I believe we WOULD be doing what they are doing if we didn't have the overwhelming fear of the entire country becoming NYC. I don't believe our administration gives two shits about people. They sat with their thumbs up their asses for months with no plan in place.
But they have shown in their much less populated country that it will even overwhelm local resources. My local hospital has 241 beds for a population that serves almost 90,000 in the city and 230,000 in the county. Assuming if 10% of the city is infected and 20% need hospitalization, that is a need for 1800 hospital beds. We are not NYC. Last time I looked, we had about 200 identified cases in the county, 20 deaths. However, our testing got shut down a week ago courtesy of testing supplies getting shanghaied b6 FEMA. Luckily, we got shut down fairly fast and healthcare is capable of working with its resources. I would hate to have seen what would have happened if the governor had dithered on doing this. They recently dismantled the field hospital that they put up in Seattle, thinking that it might be necessary. It was not. But the fact that the effort that it was put up in the first place pisses off a group of local people as they thought it was a waste of $$. Had the medical resources been overrun, then there would not have been this Monday morning quarterbacking. I much prefer my government have a Plan B. My local one does, the government does not. It’s amazing that preparing for the worst and hoping for the best is now wrong. Look at people calling projections wrong now that they are predicting “only” 60000 will die. They act like experts don’t know anything because the worst case doesn’t pan out, but will be the first to complain when we are not prepared
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formerroomate99
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Post by formerroomate99 on Apr 11, 2020 13:10:08 GMT -5
Please show me where AT ALL anyone here or anywhere has advocated a complete lock down for 18 - 24 months? There are lots of potential options for how to handle this situation from where we are now to vaccine... the do require certain steps be taken, metrics improved, infection and antibody testing developed and widespread... but no one that i have seen... except the fear mongers here frankly, have suggested that the only options are stay inside for 18-24 months... or let everybody get it. Either of those is just as problematic. Sorry. What we need is a reasonable, coordinated and multi faceted approach based on science... You can release everyone tomorrow... and many, many people are not going anywhere until there is a reasonable approach they can believe in. And 3%? that isn't close to the hospitalization rate for this thing... especially with the current data we have... Is that what you really think is happening here? 3% are saying 'screw you' to 97% ? Seriously?
Sometimes I do feel this way...I keep seeing that we can't open up the country when the numbers go down because the virus will continue to spread. If they aren't trying to say we need to stay under shelter at home until a vaccine, then I don't know what they ARE trying to say. It feels very dismissive of those of us that are stressed about losing our jobs, etc.
And I should not have thrown out a statistic. Honestly, I don't trust any of the statistics since we have no earthly idea how many people have or have had this thing.
I guarantee you, the moment this lockdown gets lifted, all we're going to hear is that every single illness and death is Trump's fault. And if he doesn't lift the lockdown, then the depression it causes will also be his fault. I work a job that can be done from home, and have been working from home for 2 years. But since most of the people who write the checks are a bunch of knuckle draggers, I've had to work in an office for most of my career. I got the news that my job was ending in late February, and was closing in on an offer by the middle of March. Then the lockdown happened, and everyone went on a hiring freeze, not because they are loosing business, but because they can't figure out how onboard a remote worker. There's really no reason why cube drones like me couldn't stay home for the next 18 months. And we are a pretty significant chunk of the population. But it does require a different mindset from American companies. If they end up doing that coronavirus immunity certification, I could definitely see companies only hiring those who went and got themselves exposed and refusing to hire those of us who obeyed the rules and kept safe.
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Apr 11, 2020 13:15:15 GMT -5
Sometimes I do feel this way...I keep seeing that we can't open up the country when the numbers go down because the virus will continue to spread. If they aren't trying to say we need to stay under shelter at home until a vaccine, then I don't know what they ARE trying to say. It feels very dismissive of those of us that are stressed about losing our jobs, etc.
And I should not have thrown out a statistic. Honestly, I don't trust any of the statistics since we have no earthly idea how many people have or have had this thing.
I guarantee you, the moment this lockdown gets lifted, all we're going to hear is that every single illness and death is Trump's fault. And if he doesn't lift the lockdown, then the depression it causes will also be his fault. I work a job that can be done from home, and have been working from home for 2 years. But since most of the people who write the checks are a bunch of knuckle draggers, I've had to work in an office for most of my career. I got the news that my job was ending in late February, and was closing in on an offer by the middle of March. Then the lockdown happened, and everyone went on a hiring freeze, not because they are loosing business, but because they can't figure out how onboard a remote worker. There's really no reason why cube drones like me couldn't stay home for the next 18 months. And we are a pretty significant chunk of the population. But it does require a different mindset from American companies. If they end up doing that coronavirus immunity certification, I could definitely see companies only hiring those who went and got themselves exposed and refusing to hire those of us who obeyed the rules and kept safe. Trump pushed to shutter pandemic monitoring program even as he received reports of COVID-19: report According to CNN, President Donald Trump’s administration pushed ahead with its plan to shutter a major agency tasked with identifying new sources of potential pandemics, even as the first reports of the novel coronavirus appeared in China — then frantically tried to reverse the decision as the crisis worsened. www.rawstory.com/2020/04/trump-pushed-to-shutter-pandemic-monitoring-program-even-as-he-received-reports-of-covid-19-report/
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Apr 11, 2020 13:16:48 GMT -5
He even admitted that he didn't read the memos warning him about the impending pandemic. Maybe the memos should have been sent to Hannity, who would then explain it to Trump using pictures.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 11, 2020 13:21:15 GMT -5
Sometimes I do feel this way...I keep seeing that we can't open up the country when the numbers go down because the virus will continue to spread. If they aren't trying to say we need to stay under shelter at home until a vaccine, then I don't know what they ARE trying to say. It feels very dismissive of those of us that are stressed about losing our jobs, etc.
And I should not have thrown out a statistic. Honestly, I don't trust any of the statistics since we have no earthly idea how many people have or have had this thing.
I guarantee you, the moment this lockdown gets lifted, all we're going to hear is that every single illness and death is Trump's fault. And if he doesn't lift the lockdown, then the depression it causes will also be his fault. I work a job that can be done from home, and have been working from home for 2 years. But since most of the people who write the checks are a bunch of knuckle draggers, I've had to work in an office for most of my career. I got the news that my job was ending in late February, and was closing in on an offer by the middle of March. Then the lockdown happened, and everyone went on a hiring freeze, not because they are loosing business, but because they can't figure out how onboard a remote worker. There's really no reason why cube drones like me couldn't stay home for the next 18 months. And we are a pretty significant chunk of the population. But it does require a different mindset from American companies. If they end up doing that coronavirus immunity certification, I could definitely see companies only hiring those who went and got themselves exposed and refusing to hire those of us who obeyed the rules and kept safe. [brp] No, if it is done with a plan, and an real explanation for why it is being done, and an expectation of can be expected, then he will have done as best he can. But since that is what so have been happening from the beginning, an his bull in a china shop method of making decisions, there is little hope that it will be a well thought out decision, he will deserve blame. This is where being “presidential” would help him. As I said, if he laid out the criteria they would use to decide to open things up, there would be less anxiety
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formerroomate99
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Post by formerroomate99 on Apr 11, 2020 13:23:29 GMT -5
But they have shown in their much less populated country that it will even overwhelm local resources. My local hospital has 241 beds for a population that serves almost 90,000 in the city and 230,000 in the county. Assuming if 10% of the city is infected and 20% need hospitalization, that is a need for 1800 hospital beds. We are not NYC. Last time I looked, we had about 200 identified cases in the county, 20 deaths. However, our testing got shut down a week ago courtesy of testing supplies getting shanghaied b6 FEMA. Luckily, we got shut down fairly fast and healthcare is capable of working with its resources. I would hate to have seen what would have happened if the governor had dithered on doing this. They recently dismantled the field hospital that they put up in Seattle, thinking that it might be necessary. It was not. But the fact that the effort that it was put up in the first place pisses off a group of local people as they thought it was a waste of $$. Had the medical resources been overrun, then there would not have been this Monday morning quarterbacking. I much prefer my government have a Plan B. My local one does, the government does not. It’s amazing that preparing for the worst and hoping for the best is now wrong. Look at people calling projections wrong now that they are predicting “only” 60000 will die. They act like experts don’t know anything because the worst case doesn’t pan out, but will be the first to complain when we are not prepared I'm pretty sure that the vast majority of population is not upset that FEMA set up field hospitals in the hotspots. That's just common sense. I was a little miffed that DeBlasio accused Trump of genocide and turning ventilators into patronage when Trump refused to hand over the entire national supply of ventilators to New York City. That was a bit uncalled for, especially since he already had a bunch of FEMA ventilators sitting in warehouses gathering dust.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Apr 11, 2020 13:24:51 GMT -5
The IMHE model appears to have done a reasonably good job of predicting what it was designed to predict. It's been reasonably accurate at predicting the date of peak resource use and bring attention to shortfalls. It has also been reasonably accurate for predicting the date at which new deaths per day peak.
We are immensely better off for having this modeling. This model saved a lot of lives in the first wave by convincing folks that social distancing could save lives.
But I've lost confidence as an reliable predictor of the total death count. When I look at Italy, Spain, and NY's graphs of new deaths per day, there's a long plateau period that the model did not predict and still does not predict.
I would not be surprised if by Aug 4, cumulative deaths exceed the 61,545 number that the model currently predicts and quite possibly exceed the 155,315 number that the model currently uses as an upper bound.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 11, 2020 13:27:24 GMT -5
South Korea is testing much more than we are.... and consistency is an issue, regardless of HOW they are counting... Italy has been at the same spot for over 3 weeks now... their new case and death numbers haven't moved much. ... ie. They don't seem to be breaking the plateau. The serious/critical numbers don't tell me much honestly. I haven't seen hospitalizations etc. data on Italy and SK... if you have a source I'd love to read it. Our DPH has a daily tally of infections, hospitalizations, people on ventilators, and breaks down infections by county. Our hospital infection control nurse forwards those numbers to us. More importantly, our governor updates the press and the public with many of those numbers daily as well. I think he is doing a good job. He also outlines the number of tests, positives, and difficulty with testing. A well functioning DPH should have those numbers. If not, someone along the line is not being transparent
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 11, 2020 13:32:07 GMT -5
The IMHE model appears to have done a reasonably good job of predicting what it was designed to predict. It's been reasonably accurate at predicting the date of peak resource use and bring attention to shortfalls. It has also been reasonably accurate for predicting the date at which new deaths per day peak.
We are immensely better off for having this modeling. This model saved a lot of lives in the first wave by convincing folks that social distancing could save lives.
But I've lost confidence as an reliable predictor of the total death count. When I look at Italy, Spain, and NY's graphs of new deaths per day, there's a long plateau period that the model did not predict and still does not predict.
I would not be surprised if by Aug 4, cumulative deaths exceed the 61,545 number that the model currently predicts and quite possibly exceed the 155,315 number that the model currently uses as an upper bound.
All models are built on assumptions. This one is no different. Behavior will affect it. I too think that they have too sharp of a decline, but with any new infectious disease certain assumptions will be wrong. But, we are much better off with trying to model this then flying blind. We then learn from our mistakes for future events. We in medicine would have much happier lives if we had a crystal ball
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formerroomate99
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Post by formerroomate99 on Apr 11, 2020 13:46:15 GMT -5
I guarantee you, the moment this lockdown gets lifted, all we're going to hear is that every single illness and death is Trump's fault. And if he doesn't lift the lockdown, then the depression it causes will also be his fault. I work a job that can be done from home, and have been working from home for 2 years. But since most of the people who write the checks are a bunch of knuckle draggers, I've had to work in an office for most of my career. I got the news that my job was ending in late February, and was closing in on an offer by the middle of March. Then the lockdown happened, and everyone went on a hiring freeze, not because they are loosing business, but because they can't figure out how onboard a remote worker. There's really no reason why cube drones like me couldn't stay home for the next 18 months. And we are a pretty significant chunk of the population. But it does require a different mindset from American companies. If they end up doing that coronavirus immunity certification, I could definitely see companies only hiring those who went and got themselves exposed and refusing to hire those of us who obeyed the rules and kept safe. [brp] No, if it is done with a plan, and an real explanation for why it is being done, and an expectation of can be expected, then he will have done as best he can. But since that is what so have been happening from the beginning, an his bull in a china shop method of making decisions, there is little hope that it will be a well thought out decision, he will deserve blame. This is where being “presidential” would help him. As I said, if he laid out the criteria they would use to decide to open things up, there would be less anxiety Even if he does what you want, that is not how it will be reported. And let's face it, hindsight is 20/20, and a broken clock is right twice a day. For example, I actually sat through the press briefings where Trump talked about Hydroxychloroquine. (It helps if you're also doing a mundane task like folding laundry.) He said that there is some antidotal good results, he had a good feeling about it, and the experts were doing proper clinical trials. He also said they were investigating a lot of other treatments. But all you heard from the news was that Trump pushing this one drug, ignoring all the others, and how it was Trump's fault that some idiot drank fish tank cleaner. I don't have medical training, but I sure as heck didn't leave that briefing thinking they had found the cure for coronavirus or that we should end the lockdown anytime soon.
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Apr 11, 2020 13:57:26 GMT -5
[brp] No, if it is done with a plan, and an real explanation for why it is being done, and an expectation of can be expected, then he will have done as best he can. But since that is what so have been happening from the beginning, an his bull in a china shop method of making decisions, there is little hope that it will be a well thought out decision, he will deserve blame. This is where being “presidential” would help him. As I said, if he laid out the criteria they would use to decide to open things up, there would be less anxiety Even if he does what you want, that is not how it will be reported. And let's face it, hindsight is 20/20, and a broken clock is right twice a day. For example, I actually sat through the press briefings where Trump talked about Hydroxychloroquine. (It helps if you're also doing a mundane task like folding laundry.) He said that there is some antidotal good results, he had a good feeling about it, and the experts were doing proper clinical trials. He also said they were investigating a lot of other treatments. But all you heard from the news was that Trump pushing this one drug, ignoring all the others, and how it was Trump's fault that some idiot drank fish tank cleaner. I don't have medical training, but I sure as heck didn't leave that briefing thinking they had found the cure for coronavirus or that we should end the lockdown anytime soon. You shouldn't spout off on a drug you know nothing about based on your "feelings". It's idiotic. You also shouldn't lie about people with lupus and malaria not catching Covid-19, which is exactly what he did. The drug shows very little promise. www.cnn.com/2020/03/28/health/coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine-trial/index.html
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 11, 2020 14:02:38 GMT -5
[brp] No, if it is done with a plan, and an real explanation for why it is being done, and an expectation of can be expected, then he will have done as best he can. But since that is what so have been happening from the beginning, an his bull in a china shop method of making decisions, there is little hope that it will be a well thought out decision, he will deserve blame. This is where being “presidential” would help him. As I said, if he laid out the criteria they would use to decide to open things up, there would be less anxiety Even if he does what you want, that is not how it will be reported. And let's face it, hindsight is 20/20, and a broken clock is right twice a day. For example, I actually sat through the press briefings where Trump talked about Hydroxychloroquine. (It helps if you're also doing a mundane task like folding laundry.) He said that there is some antidotal good results, he had a good feeling about it, and the experts were doing proper clinical trials. He also said they were investigating a lot of other treatments. But all you heard from the news was that Trump pushing this one drug, ignoring all the others, and how it was Trump's fault that some idiot drank fish tank cleaner. I don't have medical training, but I sure as heck didn't leave that briefing thinking they had found the cure for coronavirus or that we should end the lockdown anytime soon. Are you fucking kidding me. I watched him call it a game changer, and he continues to push it even when physicians were downplaying it. And FYI, there is no such thing as good anecdotal data
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