Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Apr 11, 2020 20:51:06 GMT -5
So essential workers who have been exposed can go to work as long as they have no symptoms Considering the high percentage (as much as 50%) of asymptomatic carriers, this strikes me as dangerous and politically motivated It is a recognition that we could run out of doctors and nurses with the old guidelines Yikes! I was thinking of grocery workers, janitorial staff, etc.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 11, 2020 21:04:08 GMT -5
It is a recognition that we could run out of doctors and nurses with the old guidelines Yikes! I was thinking of grocery workers, janitorial staff, etc. Quite a few healthcare workers in nyc got it. If we quarantine everyone who is exposed, you will have a significant in workload on those left
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Apr 11, 2020 21:26:18 GMT -5
I am sick and tired of the press not even mentioning the state of PA. We are now 6th in the nation with total number of cases. All we hear about is New York and CA. Thankfully the deaths are somewhat lower but the daily increases to all these numbers is crazy. I don't watch the news, but I do watch the numbers. California seems to be doing well at slowing down the spread there. Massachusetts overtook 4th place from them today, and from the trends, it looks like Pennsylvania will likely overtake 5th place from California tomorrow. I could be wrong though. Each state reports their numbers differently, and California's numbers seem to trickle out throughout the day Anyway--I'm noticing because I'm surprised how such bigger states population-wise from mine are so better at fighting this thing.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Apr 11, 2020 21:38:48 GMT -5
Yikes! I was thinking of grocery workers, janitorial staff, etc. Quite a few healthcare workers in nyc got it. If we quarantine everyone who is exposed, you will have a significant in workload on those left Point taken. But what a burden on them.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Apr 11, 2020 21:40:20 GMT -5
I am sick and tired of the press not even mentioning the state of PA. We are now 6th in the nation with total number of cases. All we hear about is New York and CA. Thankfully the deaths are somewhat lower but the daily increases to all these numbers is crazy. I don't watch the news, but I do watch the numbers. California seems to be doing well at slowing down the spread there. Massachusetts overtook 4th place from them today, and from the trends, it looks like Pennsylvania will likely overtake 5th place from California tomorrow. I could be wrong though. Each state reports their numbers differently, and California's numbers seem to trickle out throughout the day Anyway--I'm noticing because I'm surprised how such bigger states population-wise from mine are so better at fighting this thing. I think it has less to do with the size and more to do with leadership. Ohio being a case in point
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Apr 11, 2020 21:51:28 GMT -5
I don't watch the news, but I do watch the numbers. California seems to be doing well at slowing down the spread there. Massachusetts overtook 4th place from them today, and from the trends, it looks like Pennsylvania will likely overtake 5th place from California tomorrow. I could be wrong though. Each state reports their numbers differently, and California's numbers seem to trickle out throughout the day Anyway--I'm noticing because I'm surprised how such bigger states population-wise from mine are so better at fighting this thing. I think it has less to do with the size and more to do with leadership. Ohio being a case in point Michigan's lockdowns were just one day behind Ohio's, yet the difference is astounding. Other states were way behind that, yet doing much better.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 22:20:47 GMT -5
I don't even know when the stay at home order went out in MN anymore. The days all blend.
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ners
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Post by ners on Apr 11, 2020 22:31:23 GMT -5
As someone from Ohio all I have heard is how we have flattened the curve.
I know we are well behind the the original new case predictions. We are also behind the updated new case predictions.
We have wine with DeWine or snackin with Acton at 2:00 PM most days.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 23:20:09 GMT -5
It looks like they relaxed the guidelines on when exposed workers could be at work. apnews.com/fab319a90ead9aae057f7fab059c2ccbI am worried that they are pushing too fast to get people to work, because they are worried about how the economy will impact the election, rather than worried about public health. So essential workers who have been exposed can go to work as long as they have no symptoms Considering the high percentage (as much as 50%) of asymptomatic carriers, this strikes me as dangerous and politically motivated I think there are varying degrees of “essential “. As far as nurses, doctors, and whatever other employees in the medical field that work with or assist them, of course we need as many of them working as possible. And the employees in other fields that come to mind first when we think of “essential”, like everyone involved in the process of us having food available to buy, yes we need those people working too. But nobody’s going to die if we have to forgo some of our favorite foods, as long as there is healthy food available that just might not be our preference. I can see the need to get medical personnel back to work as soon as possible, and I would think and hope that that group of people would be more likely to be vigilant about taking as many protective measures as they can. But in many of the other fields of essential work, I think it might be better to stay with the first set of guidelines, where they self quarantine if they are in close contact with someone who tests positive for COVID-19, instead of continuing to work until they have symptoms, potentially spreading it even more since a person can be spreading it for days before they even begin to think they might have it, IF they even ever have symptoms. They might breeze through the illness with only mild issues that don’t appear until after they’ve spread the virus to people that get terribly ill from it, since it doesn’t affect everyone the same way. My own recent/current personal experience honestly made me question whether we’re even taking this as seriously as I’d thought we were, or if it’s just all talk.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2020 8:29:50 GMT -5
Michigan's lockdowns we're just one day behind Ohio's, yet the difference is astounding. Other states were way behind that, yet doing much better. I worked with numbers for a living and I try not to over-analyze the COVID-19 numbers. There are just too many variables and moving parts. Examples: 1. Extent of testing. More tests, more diagnosed cases, but that doesn't mean things are worsening or that area has a higher incidence than one where there's less testing. 2. Criteria for testing. If you have to show symptoms to be tested, there will be fewer reported cases but more that haven't been counted yet. 3. Death rates are "immature". If you take a snapshot today of Deaths/Reported, there are some people among the reported cases who will eventually die. As the number of cases levels out (and please, God, someday it will) the death rate may actually increase. It won't mean things are getting worse. 4. Junk statistics that don't take population into account. One blatant example I saw on FB: Iceland tested 6% of their population. Why can't we do that in the US? Umm, maybe because that will require about 20,000 test kits in Iceland and 20 MILLION of them in the US. 5. Resources available for people who have COVID-19. The death rate is going to be a lot worse in countries such as Ecuador because they're overwhelmed and there's a large segment of poor people jammed together in a small area. In the US it can also vary by area- I'm guessing people in rural areas have fewer hospitals and fewer healthcare workers per capita. 6. Some countries are under-reporting- I saw one article claiming that Russia and some Middle Eastern countries are punishing journalists who try to publicize how bad things really are. Having said that- I do believe cases are flattening out in most areas but I'm still self-isolating. I just try not to freak out at some of the "noise".
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 12, 2020 9:17:43 GMT -5
... Having said that- I do believe cases are flattening out in most areas but I'm still self-isolating. I just try not to freak out at some of the "noise". Great post! I just have a problem with that one word I highlighted above. I think it is flattening out "because" you and most Americans are self-isolating. But again, great points on the rest of it.
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Apr 12, 2020 9:23:05 GMT -5
Michigan's lockdowns we're just one day behind Ohio's, yet the difference is astounding. Other states were way behind that, yet doing much better. I worked with numbers for a living and I try not to over-analyze the COVID-19 numbers. There are just too many variables and moving parts. Examples: 1. Extent of testing. More tests, more diagnosed cases, but that doesn't mean things are worsening or that area has a higher incidence than one where there's less testing. 2. Criteria for testing. If you have to show symptoms to be tested, there will be fewer reported cases but more that haven't been counted yet. 3. Death rates are "immature". If you take a snapshot today of Deaths/Reported, there are some people among the reported cases who will eventually die. As the number of cases levels out (and please, God, someday it will) the death rate may actually increase. It won't mean things are getting worse. 4. Junk statistics that don't take population into account. One blatant example I saw on FB: Iceland tested 6% of their population. Why can't we do that in the US? Umm, maybe because that will require about 20,000 test kits in Iceland and 20 MILLION of them in the US. 5. Resources available for people who have COVID-19. The death rate is going to be a lot worse in countries such as Ecuador because they're overwhelmed and there's a large segment of poor people jammed together in a small area. In the US it can also vary by area- I'm guessing people in rural areas have fewer hospitals and fewer healthcare workers per capita. 6. Some countries are under-reporting- I saw one article claiming that Russia and some Middle Eastern countries are punishing journalists who try to publicize how bad things really are. Having said that- I do believe cases are flattening out in most areas but I'm still self-isolating. I just try not to freak out at some of the "noise". You might try analyzing them anyway if your state were so far from what you would expect. coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en Even ignoring the case count, the death toll in Michigan is also 3rd in the country, by a lot. I'm just comparing different states, and there is definitely something weird that happened in mine, knowing the timelines of the first known case/shutdowns. Detroit is not the big city it used to be. It pales in comparison to Chicago for instance. The population actually decreased to < 1M over the last couple of decades. There are also big, poor areas in Chicago, but Illinois has much fewer cases/deaths. I did read on another message board that the automakers have plants in Wuhan, so there's that (if it's true). It all leads me to believe that CV was in Michigan substantially before the first case was discovered, which was a day after Ohio's first case, if I remember correctly. It reminds me how my friend, who lives near-ish Lansing, mentioned how everyone was getting this strange pneumonia and virus a month or 2 ago (as her 5 year-old was sick with it for a long time and he husband got something as well).
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saveinla
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Post by saveinla on Apr 12, 2020 9:59:14 GMT -5
I think that California also thinks the virus was here much earlier and Stanford university is doing some research on that. We are also waiting to see some analysis from USC about this too.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Apr 12, 2020 10:19:50 GMT -5
As someone from Ohio all I have heard is how we have flattened the curve. I know we are well behind the the original new case predictions. We are also behind the updated new case predictions. We have wine with DeWine or snackin with Acton at 2:00 PM most days. Well that was frickin amazeballs.
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Apr 12, 2020 10:22:03 GMT -5
Apparently the first reported human to human infection was first reported in Wuhan around January 20ish before that just people connected to the Wuhan wet market (if Chinese reports are to be believed) Trump shut down flights from China January 31, right after there were some reports/papers from the administration re CV19
Most people were thinking it would be like SARS in 2003 and not spread widely through the world Yep everyone who had symptoms in January looks back and thinks I had it early
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Apr 12, 2020 10:32:55 GMT -5
Apparently the first reported human to human infection was first reported in Wuhan around January 20ish before that just people connected to the Wuhan wet market (if Chinese reports are to be believed) Trump shut down flights from China January 31, right after there were some reports/papers from the administration re CV19 Most people were thinking it would be like SARS in 2003 and not spread widely through the world Yep everyone who had symptoms in January looks back and thinks I had it early I doubt anyone had it in January too. However, do we believe China's assessment of the situation? I'm sure hindsight will be a little clearer.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 12, 2020 10:45:44 GMT -5
Apparently the first reported human to human infection was first reported in Wuhan around January 20ish before that just people connected to the Wuhan wet market (if Chinese reports are to be believed) Trump shut down flights from China January 31, right after there were some reports/papers from the administration re CV19 Most people were thinking it would be like SARS in 2003 and not spread widely through the world Yep everyone who had symptoms in January looks back and thinks I had it early I doubt anyone had it in January too. However, do we believe China's assessment of the situation? I'm sure hindsight will be a little clearer. The virus was likely circulating in late November or early December in China. It is unlike that the virus was here before mid to late January. We were not seeing anything like this in any significant numbers before March. So it is unlikely that there were significant infections here in January
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chiver78
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Post by chiver78 on Apr 12, 2020 10:59:10 GMT -5
idk about January infections being unlikely, I think it would depend on the travel of an individual and of those around them. I've mentioned my sister - a pretty healthy individual, with an iron immune system. she had something resembling all of the symptoms of a mild case of this back in Feb. she is teacher at a boarding HS, with students from all over the world. she got sick not long after they all got back from their Feb break. she also tested negative for flu - which makes sense if it was COVID.
personally, I think we had cases here prior to that first one reported in WA.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Apr 12, 2020 11:02:47 GMT -5
idk about January infections being unlikely, I think it would depend on the travel of an individual and of those around them. I've mentioned my sister - a pretty healthy individual, with an iron immune system. she had something resembling all of the symptoms of a mild case of this back in Feb. she is teacher at a boarding HS, with students from all over the world. she got sick not long after they all got back from their Feb break. she also tested negative for flu - which makes sense if it was COVID. personally, I think we had cases here prior to that first one reported in WA. The statement was "Unlikely there were significant infections". I guess it should have said "a significant number of infections" because if you are infected, it is significant to you....
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chiver78
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Post by chiver78 on Apr 12, 2020 11:11:41 GMT -5
yes, and that is how I read it. I only described my sister, but she is one teacher in a single boarding school. and that's only educational institutions. it's amazing how real the "Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon" game becomes when trying to minimize the spread of an infectious disease.
I think we had cases here well before the current administration would have ever admitted to it. given that this thread is not in Politics, I'll stop there. but we had the opportunity to squash this, and we didn't.
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Apr 12, 2020 11:14:41 GMT -5
I think that California also thinks the virus was here much earlier and Stanford university is doing some research on that. We are also waiting to see some analysis from USC about this too. There is actually some samples out on that that they could determine this. UW started a flu study where they were sampling flu sufferers for strains by the same technology that the covid test uses. I think that they had been testing for 1-2 months before the first case hit the US officially. They started testing their back samples for covid, then got a cease and desist letter from the government. I believe that there were a few positives they came across in the samples that they had tested before getting shut down. Not sure how long it was before/during/after the first case was officially identified though. Going back and testing those samples taken in December. and Jan. could be invaluable.
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plugginaway22
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Post by plugginaway22 on Apr 12, 2020 11:22:47 GMT -5
I am convinced my DS and his coworkers had it in early February, working for a ski resort out west with tons of international travelers. After they shut down the resort in March and started testing the employees with symptoms, many were positive. Thankfully most of them are young with strong lungs and seem to have recovered.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2020 11:49:24 GMT -5
There's overwhelming evidence China's death toll was at least 10x what was reported. And, much of Wuhan is actually still locked down and those areas that aren't are starting to see reinfection.
The graphs everyone sees on the news were based on China's stated data.
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Apr 12, 2020 12:02:54 GMT -5
There's overwhelming evidence China's death toll was at least 10x what was reported. And, much of Wuhan is actually still locked down and those areas that aren't are starting to see reinfection. The graphs everyone sees on the news were based on China's stated data. I figured this one out. i have been following the cases and deaths on the JH covid site for several weeks. The percentage of deaths to cases has been going up for every single country.....but China. Just the noise in the data should have it bouncing around more than it has. I trust China’s data no more than I can throw TD.
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Apr 12, 2020 12:38:25 GMT -5
It looks to me like China just stopped reporting any numbers at a certain point. I totally disregard their totals.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2020 12:51:02 GMT -5
yes, and that is how I read it. I only described my sister, but she is one teacher in a single boarding school. and that's only educational institutions. it's amazing how real the "Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon" game becomes when trying to minimize the spread of an infectious disease. I think we had cases here well before the current administration would have ever admitted to it. given that this thread is not in Politics, I'll stop there. but we had the opportunity to squash this, and we didn't. Actually, I read today (can't remember where) that a really bad strain of flu went through many of California's major cities in December. The experts, whoever they were, speculated that it may have been covid and therefore explaining California's disproportionate fewer cases than other places with large populations. Just speculation, though.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 12, 2020 15:50:48 GMT -5
yes, and that is how I read it. I only described my sister, but she is one teacher in a single boarding school. and that's only educational institutions. it's amazing how real the "Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon" game becomes when trying to minimize the spread of an infectious disease. I think we had cases here well before the current administration would have ever admitted to it. given that this thread is not in Politics, I'll stop there. but we had the opportunity to squash this, and we didn't. Actually, I read today (can't remember where) that a really bad strain of flu went through many of California's major cities in December. The experts, whoever they were, speculated that it may have been covid and therefore explaining California's disproportionate fewer cases than other places with large populations. Just speculation, though. There was a large early spike of influenza like illnesses across the country in early December. It was unusual in that it occurred earlier than usual. At least in my experience, these individuals tested positive for the flu. There were both A and B strains circulating, and the B strains were particularly bad for kids. This persisted into January. If you look at trend lines, flu-like illnesses then started to decrease, then had a marked increase in March, correlating with the increase in covid cases. Unless we are able to show from blood that was saved from January that their was covid infections back then, it is highly unlikely that people were infected with coronavirus. The flu was nasty, but nothing out of the ordinary. In addition, we did not see a dramatic increase in people who needed ventilators with flu like illness until March. So, while a few people may have been infected with covid in January, if you look at the experience in Washington in February, no one else went through that, so they were likely the earliest affected area
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2020 16:22:50 GMT -5
Actually, I read today (can't remember where) that a really bad strain of flu went through many of California's major cities in December. The experts, whoever they were, speculated that it may have been covid and therefore explaining California's disproportionate fewer cases than other places with large populations. Just speculation, though. There was a large early spike of influenza like illnesses across the country in early December. It was unusual in that it occurred earlier than usual. At least in my experience, these individuals tested positive for the flu. There were both A and B strains circulating, and the B strains were particularly bad for kids. This persisted into January. If you look at trend lines, flu-like illnesses then started to decrease, then had a marked increase in March, correlating with the increase in covid cases. Unless we are able to show from blood that was saved from January that their was covid infections back then, it is highly unlikely that people were infected with coronavirus. The flu was nasty, but nothing out of the ordinary. In addition, we did not see a dramatic increase in people who needed ventilators with flu like illness until March. So, while a few people may have been infected with covid in January, if you look at the experience in Washington in February, no one else went through that, so they were likely the earliest affected area I did say it was speculation. However, the method of showing whether or not the "California" flu was indeed a from of covid-19 was to be a test for antibodies when that is developed. The speculation was that the "California" flu was a less virulent form of covid-19. Viruses do mutate. The article did not make this parallel, but I'm gathering they were speculating that it was like how people who developed cowpox (dairy workers, etc.) developed some immunity to smallpox even before there was a vaccine. Again, it is all speculation.
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Apr 12, 2020 16:55:56 GMT -5
Actually, I read today (can't remember where) that a really bad strain of flu went through many of California's major cities in December. The experts, whoever they were, speculated that it may have been covid and therefore explaining California's disproportionate fewer cases than other places with large populations. Just speculation, though. There was a large early spike of influenza like illnesses across the country in early December. It was unusual in that it occurred earlier than usual. At least in my experience, these individuals tested positive for the flu. There were both A and B strains circulating, and the B strains were particularly bad for kids. This persisted into January. If you look at trend lines, flu-like illnesses then started to decrease, then had a marked increase in March, correlating with the increase in covid cases. Unless we are able to show from blood that was saved from January that their was covid infections back then, it is highly unlikely that people were infected with coronavirus. The flu was nasty, but nothing out of the ordinary. In addition, we did not see a dramatic increase in people who needed ventilators with flu like illness until March. So, while a few people may have been infected with covid in January, if you look at the experience in Washington in February, no one else went through that, so they were likely the earliest affected area The UW flu study was collecting samples in Jan. They really do need to go back and analyze these swabs for covid. They tried, but were stopped. Knowing whether it existed in these samples would show when it came into the population...even more importantly since Seattle had the first diagnosed case of covid in the US.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 12, 2020 16:58:14 GMT -5
There was a large early spike of influenza like illnesses across the country in early December. It was unusual in that it occurred earlier than usual. At least in my experience, these individuals tested positive for the flu. There were both A and B strains circulating, and the B strains were particularly bad for kids. This persisted into January. If you look at trend lines, flu-like illnesses then started to decrease, then had a marked increase in March, correlating with the increase in covid cases. Unless we are able to show from blood that was saved from January that their was covid infections back then, it is highly unlikely that people were infected with coronavirus. The flu was nasty, but nothing out of the ordinary. In addition, we did not see a dramatic increase in people who needed ventilators with flu like illness until March. So, while a few people may have been infected with covid in January, if you look at the experience in Washington in February, no one else went through that, so they were likely the earliest affected area I did say it was speculation. However, the method of showing whether or not the "California" flu was indeed a from of covid-19 was to be a test for antibodies when that is developed. The speculation was that the "California" flu was a less virulent form of covid-19. Viruses do mutate. The article did not make this parallel, but I'm gathering they were speculating that it was like how people who developed cowpox (dairy workers, etc.) developed some immunity to smallpox even before there was a vaccine. Again, it is all speculation. If you look around the world, this thing exploded very quickly wherever it was, and it has not mutated significantly. It would be strange for it to act differently here than it has elsewhere, especially when you look at what happened in New York. The virus in nyc is the same one in Europe, and the one in California came from China, and look at what was going on in China. I don’t think they are correct with their speculation
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