Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Nov 1, 2019 13:01:07 GMT -5
We all know what all the polls say or are predicting. We all know what the major national newspapers and magazines are writing. We al know outside of Fox News what the cable networks are saying since 2016....... A "new biggest loser!"
Now look at the stock market indexes. No regular index is suggesting he will not be President for four more years.
Stock indexes are all at new or just off all time record highs. What does this tell you? Hedge funds, as well as the big national Union funds are in for the continual stock fund run. Watch your union pension funds as well as your IRA and 401-k funds. If you own stocks look where the stock price is. Look at their dividend payouts. Everyone likes a winner, and loves their pocketbook. They also vote on it.
The markets are in the business of predicting what will hapen in the future, up to a year out from now. Based on current markets they are not predicting an ouster from the office. Markets do not take well to confusion in Washington D.C. between the political parties without realizing who wins aand who loses. The markets are predicting the democrats are all smoke and mirrors right now. Can that attitude change? Yes, but before that happens we have to see a consistent sellling off of the major indexes for a two to three week time frame before recognizing this issue coming to the front. Looks like he is the winner.
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steff
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Post by steff on Nov 1, 2019 13:07:11 GMT -5
Post/ABC poll on Trump’s approval among Republicans:
July 87% now 74%
18% of Republicans say Congress should impeach Trump and remove him from the presidency
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mroped
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Post by mroped on Nov 1, 2019 13:17:27 GMT -5
It all depends on how the democrats behave during the primaries. If another story similar with Hillary/Sanders happens then it is not out of question that Trump will have four more years. Im just hopping that the democrats learned from their past and stop playing high and mighty(translate “stupid”)
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swamp
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Post by swamp on Nov 1, 2019 13:22:32 GMT -5
I have no idea. I hope he isn't re-elected, but it could happen.
If he is re-elected, it won't be landslide because there is no way in hell Trump will win NY, CA, MA, CT, VT, and RI. There are sufficient electoral college votes to cancel out a landslide.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 1, 2019 13:30:46 GMT -5
As I posted on another thread, I have no idea and won't be placing any bets. We're too far out and have no Dem candidate yet, and who knows what squirrelly things can pop up.
I would caution you against reading too much into the markets, though. The last poll numbers I saw thought Trump was doing a fantastic job on the economy - even the Dems gave him points for that. But the majority, even the GOP candidates, didn't want to re-elect him. Which tells me yes, they think Trump is pro business, but voters are judging him on other factors, too, and not grading him so well on those.
I agree people often vote their pocket book, but not always. I saw a poll this AM that said only 38% of GOPers thought that Trump was upholding democratic values. Close to 50% thought he lied frequently - and those were GOP votes. Are people going to be willing to stick with a liar who is behaving in an anti-American way if they think they'll see a few more bucks in their wallet?
Then there is the question of who will run against Trump - if it's someone people trust less than Trump, Trump will probably win.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2019 13:45:47 GMT -5
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pooks
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Post by pooks on Nov 1, 2019 13:49:25 GMT -5
Given the unemployment numbers and the stock market, Trump should coast to an easy victory. I don't think he will. If he wins at all, which I concede he might, I think it will be with less electoral college votes than he had in 2016.
Given the state of the economy his approval rating should be higher. Even in polls that are favorable to him, he can't manage a net approval.
I think the biggest problem for the democrats isn't Trump, but that they don't seem to have one candidate who can unite those who disapprove of Trump. Even among those who despise the president there is one or 2 Dem candidates, even in the top tier, that they won't vote for. I will vote blue no matter who, but the field is rather uninspiring.
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Bob Ross
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Post by Bob Ross on Nov 1, 2019 14:00:24 GMT -5
My best guess now is the house will impeach, the senate will acquit, and then it's on to the inevitable sh*t-show of the 2020 elections. I hope he doesn't win, especially given that if he makes it past 2020, he'll KNOW he's above the law and God knows what he'll do. But the cynical voice in my head says he'll win...just like it did in 2016. I don't think too many of Trump's base (white, non-college degree holding men) have much exposure to the markets, but they are his base and will vote for him no matter what. I just googled and wiki says that as of 2013, the top 10% have 81% of the stock wealth, and I don't think whatever voter flip-flops from 2016 that happen in that group are gonna decide 2020. Plus, the voters outside of his base would likely not vote based on the markets alone. I know I sure wouldn't. I also don't think that Trump is that responsible for the current state of the markets, unless you want to argue that the markets would be even better if he didn't get into the stupid trade war with China. Just because a president is in office when times are good doesn't mean he's responsible for those good times. Otherwise, you'd have to concede that both Clinton and Obama were great presidents. If taking a market hit would be the repercussions of getting Trump out of power, I'd be willing to accept that.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 1, 2019 14:05:31 GMT -5
We all know what all the polls say or are predicting. We all know what the major national newspapers and magazines are writing. We al know outside of Fox News what the cable networks are saying since 2016....... A "new biggest loser!" Now look at the stock market indexes. No regular index is suggesting he will not be President for four more years. Stock indexes are all at new or just off all time record highs. What does this tell you? same thing that it told us about Al Gore.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2019 14:10:36 GMT -5
My best guess now is the house will impeach, the senate will acquit, and then it's on to the inevitable sh*t-show of the 2020 elections. I hope he doesn't win, especially given that if he makes it past 2020, he'll KNOW he's above the law and God knows what he'll do. But the cynical voice in my head says he'll win...just like it did in 2016. I don't think too many of Trump's base (white, non-college degree holding men) have much exposure to the markets, but they are his base and will vote for him no matter what. I just googled and wiki says that as of 2013, the top 10% have 81% of the stock wealth, and I don't think whatever voter flip-flops from 2016 that happen in that group are gonna decide 2020. Plus, the rest of the voters would likely not vote based on the markets alone. I know I sure wouldn't. I also don't think that Trump is that responsible for the current state of the markets, unless you want to argue that the markets would be even better if he didn't get into the stupid trade war with China. Just because a president is in office when times are good doesn't mean he's responsible for those good times. Otherwise, you'd have to claim that both Clinton and Obama were great presidents. If taking a market hit would be the repercussions of getting Trump out of power, I'd be willing to accept that.It's been said that most Democrat voters would damage the country, to get their candidate into office.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2019 14:11:38 GMT -5
We all know what all the polls say or are predicting. We all know what the major national newspapers and magazines are writing. We al know outside of Fox News what the cable networks are saying since 2016....... A "new biggest loser!" Now look at the stock market indexes. No regular index is suggesting he will not be President for four more years. Stock indexes are all at new or just off all time record highs. What does this tell you? same thing that it told us about Al Gore. Al Gore was president ?
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Bob Ross
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Post by Bob Ross on Nov 1, 2019 14:17:22 GMT -5
My best guess now is the house will impeach, the senate will acquit, and then it's on to the inevitable sh*t-show of the 2020 elections. I hope he doesn't win, especially given that if he makes it past 2020, he'll KNOW he's above the law and God knows what he'll do. But the cynical voice in my head says he'll win...just like it did in 2016. I don't think too many of Trump's base (white, non-college degree holding men) have much exposure to the markets, but they are his base and will vote for him no matter what. I just googled and wiki says that as of 2013, the top 10% have 81% of the stock wealth, and I don't think whatever voter flip-flops from 2016 that happen in that group are gonna decide 2020. Plus, the rest of the voters would likely not vote based on the markets alone. I know I sure wouldn't. I also don't think that Trump is that responsible for the current state of the markets, unless you want to argue that the markets would be even better if he didn't get into the stupid trade war with China. Just because a president is in office when times are good doesn't mean he's responsible for those good times. Otherwise, you'd have to claim that both Clinton and Obama were great presidents. If taking a market hit would be the repercussions of getting Trump out of power, I'd be willing to accept that.It's been said that most Democrat voters would damage the country, to get their candidate into office. It's been said that most trolls are green and live under bridges.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 1, 2019 14:18:03 GMT -5
same thing that it told us about Al Gore. Al Gore was president ? you're a bright guy, and didn't get it.
the prevailing logic is this: the party in charge with a successful economy wins.
it is the logic that GHW used in 1988, Clinton used in 1996, and VB is employing now.
using that logic, Al Gore should have won. he didn't.
the pattern doesn't always work. now, the hard truth: it is something Trump currently has going for him. if it holds up, he will be tough to beat. if it falls apart, he is going to get crushed like Mondale.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2019 14:19:28 GMT -5
It's been said that most Democrat voters would damage the country, to get their candidate into office. It's been said that most trolls are green and live under bridges. You will find a differing opinion is not trolling. C- on the effort. (You don't remember me, do you. Best to bring your 'A' game here on out)
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Nov 1, 2019 14:20:22 GMT -5
It's been said that most Republican voters could care less about the country or the constitution to keep Trump in office.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2019 14:20:56 GMT -5
you're a bright guy, and didn't get it.
the prevailing logic is this: the party in charge with a successful economy wins.
it is the logic that GHW used in 1988, Clinton used in 1996, and VB is employing now.
using that logic, Al Gore should have won. he didn't.
the pattern doesn't always work. now, the hard truth: it is something Trump currently has going for him. if it holds up, he will be tough to beat. if it falls apart, he is going to get crushed like Mondale.
I was agreeing with you, just being facetious. Yes he will. (bolded)
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2019 14:22:29 GMT -5
It's been said that most Republican voters could care less about the country or the constitution to keep Trump in office. That's because he's better overall, than the current Democrat candidates. I believe uninspiring was what I read recently, right here.
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ednkris
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Post by ednkris on Nov 1, 2019 14:25:23 GMT -5
As of right now I would say it is a given he will win. There is literally no one on the Dem side that could beat him especially the platforms they are running on. Just a bunch of ass clowns. Hell that is my opinion and i'm an ass at times.
The house will try to impeach if they are successful the senate will do the right thing and shoot it down for the farce that it is. When that happens he will get a huge bump in voters. Remember Trump is a marketeer and will use it to his advantage as that he should. That is what Pelosi is worried about, so far evertyhing they threw at Trump he turned it to his favor. Polls are only good as the information that is taken. Given the election of 2016 you would think the Dems wouldn't try to do the same shit but hell they aren't the smartest ones in the cookie jar. I know I will enjoy watching Chucky Todd wipe his impish grin when they declare Trump the winner next year.
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Bob Ross
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Post by Bob Ross on Nov 1, 2019 14:26:07 GMT -5
It's been said that most trolls are green and live under bridges. You will find a differing opinion is not trolling. C- on the effort. (You don't remember me, do you. Best to bring your 'A' game here on out) Nope, but providing a generalized, instigating one-liner response to a detailed post is. And no, I don't remember you, but you seem to have a thing for me. Can I get a recliner here in your head? I like to put my feet up.
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ednkris
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Post by ednkris on Nov 1, 2019 14:27:39 GMT -5
My best guess now is the house will impeach, the senate will acquit, and then it's on to the inevitable sh*t-show of the 2020 elections. I hope he doesn't win, especially given that if he makes it past 2020, he'll KNOW he's above the law and God knows what he'll do. But the cynical voice in my head says he'll win...just like it did in 2016. I don't think too many of Trump's base (white, non-college degree holding men) have much exposure to the markets, but they are his base and will vote for him no matter what. I just googled and wiki says that as of 2013, the top 10% have 81% of the stock wealth, and I don't think whatever voter flip-flops from 2016 that happen in that group are gonna decide 2020. Plus, the rest of the voters would likely not vote based on the markets alone. I know I sure wouldn't. I also don't think that Trump is that responsible for the current state of the markets, unless you want to argue that the markets would be even better if he didn't get into the stupid trade war with China. Just because a president is in office when times are good doesn't mean he's responsible for those good times. Otherwise, you'd have to claim that both Clinton and Obama were great presidents. If taking a market hit would be the repercussions of getting Trump out of power, I'd be willing to accept that.It's been said that most Democrat voters would damage the country, to get their candidate into office. Truth---just look at their last POTUS...kissing Iran ass might as well went straight over there and recruited their candidate
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 1, 2019 14:35:06 GMT -5
As of right now I would say it is a given he will win. There is literally no one on the Dem side that could beat him especially the platforms they are running on. Just a bunch of ass clowns. Hell that is my opinion and i'm an ass at times. an ass clown won the last election, so I would not rest on much certainty if I were you.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2019 14:38:12 GMT -5
You will find a differing opinion is not trolling. C- on the effort. (You don't remember me, do you. Best to bring your 'A' game here on out) Nope, but providing a generalized, instigating one-liner response to a detailed post is. And no, I don't remember you, but you seem to have a thing for me. Can I get a recliner here in your head? I like to put my feet up. It's always can be considered instigating, when you don't agree with an opinion. Never seen a 'one liner' as a requirement for trolling. Would a one liner agreeing with what you think, be trolling to someone who disagrees, using your one liner logic of course. You are in error, your posts are just stereotypically funny. (bolded) I will comment on them at any time. Don't think it assigns any other special attributes/attentions.
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Nov 1, 2019 14:45:16 GMT -5
It's been said that most Democrat voters would damage the country, to get their candidate into office. Truth---just look at their last POTUS...kissing Iran ass might as well went straight over there and recruited their candidate Oh honey, you forgot the doctor comment. You feeling ok?
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Bob Ross
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Post by Bob Ross on Nov 1, 2019 14:50:31 GMT -5
Nope, but providing a generalized, instigating one-liner response to a detailed post is. And no, I don't remember you, but you seem to have a thing for me. Can I get a recliner here in your head? I like to put my feet up. It's always can be considered instigating, when you don't agree with an opinion. Never seen a 'one liner' as a requirement for trolling. Would a one liner agreeing with what you think, be trolling to someone who disagrees, using your one liner logic of course. You are in error, your posts are just stereotypically funny. (bolded) I will comment on them at any time. Don't think it assigns any other special attributes/attentions. Gee, I guess it depends on what your definition of the word "is" is. Pick apart semantics then backtrack all you want. The addition of your cocky "don't remember me, bring A-game" statement clarified your intent while hinting at some past offense. So I've been gone from these forums for what, 2 years now, and you've been simmering for all of this time? Really? Was it something specific I said, or do my "stereotypically funny" posts just grind your gears? Oh well, you can't please em all. Tell you what. Me Sowwy. Can we kiss and make up now?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2019 15:12:29 GMT -5
It's always can be considered instigating, when you don't agree with an opinion. Never seen a 'one liner' as a requirement for trolling. Would a one liner agreeing with what you think, be trolling to someone who disagrees, using your one liner logic of course. You are in error, your posts are just stereotypically funny. (bolded) I will comment on them at any time. Don't think it assigns any other special attributes/attentions. Gee, I guess it depends on what your definition of the word "is" is. Pick apart semantics then backtrack all you want. The addition of your cocky "don't remember me, bring A-game" statement clarified your intent while hinting at some past offense. So I've been gone from these forums for what, 2 years now, and you've been simmering for all of this time? Really? Was it something specific I said, or do my "stereotypically funny" posts just grind your gears? Oh well, you can't please em all. Tell you what. Me Sowwy. Can we kiss and make up now? That's it ! Simmering.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 1, 2019 15:26:46 GMT -5
Given the unemployment numbers and the stock market, Trump should coast to an easy victory. I don't think he will. If he wins at all, which I concede he might, I think it will be with less electoral college votes than he had in 2016. Given the state of the economy his approval rating should be higher. Even in polls that are favorable to him, he can't manage a net approval. I think the biggest problem for the democrats isn't Trump, but that they don't seem to have one candidate who can unite those who disapprove of Trump. Even among those who despise the president there is one or 2 Dem candidates, even in the top tier, that they won't vote for. I will vote blue no matter who, but the field is rather uninspiring. The most vicious campaigning is in the primaries. Remember all the GOP candidates last time (17 I think) and how they fought among themselves, ignoring Trump for the most part because he had no platform and everyone thought he was a joke?
The presidential debates will be more interesting this time. In 2016, Trump was the smart assy, outrageous, mavericky outsider who would shake things up. Now he has to run on his record, which includes getting almost none of his big promises from 2016 done, but also includes being the president who cultivated chaos and an intense culture war between Americans. People are tired of the constant drama, I think. Plus, if you look at the polls, even the GOPers admits Trump lies - a lot. If the dems manage to come up with a candidate with integrity, intelligence and a great middle class platform, they might do well.
I've been leaning towards Buttegieg. He does well under pressure, is very smart, and has a lot of well thought out proposals. I know my rural Southern neighbors would be stricken with horror if a gay guy was president - but hell, none of them would vote for a Dem in the first place, even if Jesus came back and ran on the ticket, so he wouldn't be losing any voters the Dems would have in the first place.
Then if he can get Trump rattled enough to make an anti-gay slur in one of the debates - awesome.
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oped
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Post by oped on Nov 1, 2019 15:30:38 GMT -5
It's been said that most Democrat voters would damage the country, to get their candidate into office. It's been said that most trolls are green and live under bridges. It’s been said that irony is dead.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Nov 1, 2019 16:05:17 GMT -5
It's been said that most Democrat voters would damage the country, to get their candidate into office. Truth---just look at their last POTUS...kissing Iran ass might as well went straight over there and recruited their candidate You don’t actually have the geopolitical acumen required to understand the 6 nation treaty with Iran. And now that Trump has blown it, Iran is quite a bit more dangerous as he has empowered the radicals there and lost the leverage provided by that treaty.
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kadee79
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Post by kadee79 on Nov 1, 2019 17:07:05 GMT -5
Given the unemployment numbers and the stock market, Trump should coast to an easy victory. I don't think he will. If he wins at all, which I concede he might, I think it will be with less electoral college votes than he had in 2016. Given the state of the economy his approval rating should be higher. Even in polls that are favorable to him, he can't manage a net approval. I think the biggest problem for the democrats isn't Trump, but that they don't seem to have one candidate who can unite those who disapprove of Trump. Even among those who despise the president there is one or 2 Dem candidates, even in the top tier, that they won't vote for. I will vote blue no matter who, but the field is rather uninspiring. The most vicious campaigning is in the primaries. Remember all the GOP candidates last time (17 I think) and how they fought among themselves, ignoring Trump for the most part because he had no platform and everyone thought he was a joke?
The presidential debates will be more interesting this time. In 2016, Trump was the smart assy, outrageous, mavericky outsider who would shake things up. Now he has to run on his record, which includes getting almost none of his big promises from 2016 done, but also includes being the president who cultivated chaos and an intense culture war between Americans. People are tired of the constant drama, I think. Plus, if you look at the polls, even the GOPers admits Trump lies - a lot. If the dems manage to come up with a candidate with integrity, intelligence and a great middle class platform, they might do well.
I've been leaning towards Buttegieg. He does well under pressure, is very smart, and has a lot of well thought out proposals. I know my rural Southern neighbors would be stricken with horror if a gay guy was president - but hell, none of them would vote for a Dem in the first place, even if Jesus came back and ran on the ticket, so he wouldn't be losing any voters the Dems would have in the first place.
Then if he can get Trump rattled enough to make an anti-gay slur in one of the debates - awesome.
I agree & Pete keeps creeping slowly in the polls. I think as the field narrows more folks will listen to him better...understand more what he is saying...unlike the mess we have now where he who shouts the loudest is the only one heard...
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Nov 1, 2019 22:47:40 GMT -5
Pete does not have a chance!
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