metals, mining, and more......

[djAdvocate]

I am raising my target on CSFFF to $6. it is selling for $4.44 today.

[salmotrutta]

You have to think that inflation will suddenly get hit in Jan.   O/N RRPs volumes have exceeded the narrow measure of money by $725b since 2021.  That is contractionary.  The money stock can never be properly managed by any attempt to control the cost of credit.

[salmotrutta]

There’s a high probability that the FED doesn’t report the money stock figures correctly (O/N RRPs, where the money goes from the banks to the Central Bank), a good example is sweep accounts (where the money changes counterparties inside the banks).

[Rukh O'Rorke]

Oct 18, 2021 20:39:32 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

you are looking for them to honor that dividend. but chances are they won't with the yield that high.

I know you like dividend stocks, so you might want to consider Newmont. their yield is about 4% right now, and the stock price is rock bottom, imo.

NOTE: I am really bummed about Doman Building Materials. it crapped out at around 8 and has plummeted since then, but I still like it.

yeah, it seems crazy they would. the fall dividend payout was nearly 15% based on current price, but I was glad that one isn't on autoreinvest as I don't feel as confident about it, and then it is 50 to make a trade with it. I'll see what the spring dividend is like.

not as enthused on the divvy portfolio as I was in the beginging. its going well - aside from fsumf, but I do think it just isn't as stable as what I am needing to balance out the growth portfolio. I'll need to think this through a bit better before I stop working.

[djAdvocate]

I viewed it as a short term thing. I STILL think that these stocks will do well in the last three months. either way, I would probably this at year's end.

DBC is growing steadily. if you decide to buy this one, do NOT purchase your shares on Monday. it generally opens quite high. best day is WEDNESDAY.

[djAdvocate]

I found this WEIRD investment this week:

KRBN

this is a company that targets the carbon offset market in Europe.
it has done very well this year. currently selling for $40

[salmotrutta]

If the FED hadn't raised the returns on O/N RRPs then the U.S. $'s exchange rate would have plunged raising input prices - accelerating inflation. That's the difference between July 2008 @5.60 % and January 1991 @5.65 % and today @5.4 %.


The FED is surreptitiously tightening monetary policy. The FOMC needs to reduce the remuneration rate @.15% on IBDDs. The remuneration rate is above all money market funding rates (which will negatively impact T-Bill issuance). The money market is differentiated by its position on the yield curve (i.e., short-term borrowing and lending with original maturities from one year or less).

The Fed’s administered policy rate, inverts the short-end segment of the retail and wholesale nonbank funding yield curve (reversing maturity and credit transformation). This destroys money velocity and induces nonbank disintermediation (where the volume of available credit is reduced).


Link Zoltan Pozsar:

research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&sourceid=em&document_id=1083870621&serialid=7Y4SC5R3JwuWssYSE1%2BHK0YN0zn1kYEHLQF0NHLEWx0%3D&cspId=null

[salmotrutta]

Markets on their grind to higher prices until Jan.  Then time to buy BITI (short bitcoin).

[salmotrutta]

What pricked bitcoin, gold, and the CRB commodity index:


Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Reverse Repurchase Agreements: Foreign Official and International Accounts: Wednesday Level (WLRRAFOIAL)
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLRRAFOIAL


www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY

[djAdvocate]

Nov 13, 2021 14:54:09 GMT -5 salmotrutta said:

Markets on their grind to higher prices until Jan.  Then time to buy BITI (short bitcoin).

what makes you think bitcoin will drop in jan?

[djAdvocate]

metals stocks are picking up steam in this war driven, inflation driven scenario.

[Rukh O'Rorke]

mmm - wonder if my fsumf will pick up....

checking on it, it is outperforming the market the last 3 months, but still underperforming from 6 months ago.

Also have some fqvlf, which is outperforming the market - just sp500 comparisons here - for past 3 years.

[djAdvocate]

just bought some SBSW.
it had a nice 18% gain in two weeks, but should have a lot more gas in the tank.
there are lots of others in the sector, as well.
the last month has been the perfect storm for non-Russian miners.
the only headwind is energy costs.

[Rukh O'Rorke]

Mar 6, 2022 10:57:03 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

just bought some SBSW.
it had a nice 18% gain in two weeks, but should have a lot more gas in the tank.
there are lots of others in the sector, as well.
the last month has been the perfect storm for non-Russian miners.
the only headwind is energy costs.

Looked interesting, but some issues with worker deaths was a bit offputting.

[djAdvocate]

SBSW has been kindof a dog.
don't really get why.
with a shortage of Palladium, and a low PE, they should be doing really well.

[djAdvocate]

in a surprising and spectacular move, RGLD is up 50% and at a new record high in the last two months.

i say surprising, because gold itself is nowhere near that, and RGLD is only producing $4/share in royalty income, which gives it a PE of 35.  does the company performance justify that price?  possibly.  their income before taxes is over 50% of revenue, which shows a very efficient revenue stream, and the income has grown over 50% in the last year, which means the PEG is "reasonable".

i bought this stock at $100 because it seemed like a fair price, with a PE of 25.  not so sure about this current price of $146.  i might sell some.

[djAdvocate]

CSFFF hit $6.  it still might go higher, but i made 12x on that one, so i am out.
SBSW was up 6% today, but i am carrying a loss on that one.
RGLD is up 13%
KRBN is up 20%

[djAdvocate]

i still have three uraniums:

PALAF $0.668
UROY $4.39
MGAAF$0.298 
URA $26 (my old price target was 40, my new one is 32)

Mega has actual earnings.  it has a PE of 9. 

To the above list, I am adding the following:

APAAF = $0.60
BNNLF = $0.23
FDCFF = $0.20
AU:EME $A0.25

i am betting this SECOND list will go up 50-100% this year.  the first list will probably not do that well, because they are ALREADY up that much, fairly recently.  my favourite pick right now is FDCFF, as it is selling at below HALF what it was earlier this year, when Uranium was 40% LOWER.

[djAdvocate]

uranium is at an 11 year high, but nobody is paying any attention.
the stocks are 10-50% below an eight year high.

this is a rare buying opportunity.

[djAdvocate]

uranium stocks did not perform well since april.
we are back in a precious metals cycle, away from industrial metals.

expect gold and gold miners to go up 20% over the next six weeks.
RGLD 110 target 135
MMX 5, target 5.5-6
SAND 5.6, target 9
CA:NKL 1.0 target 1.25
WPM 40 target 50
FNV 140 target 170

SAND is seriously lagging.

NOTE: NKL is a nickle and cobalt royalty, but both of those metals are good now, too.

[djAdvocate]

the golds listed above still look good to me.  in addition, i recommend Triple Flag in that sector (they bought out MMX, so that stock is now buried in their portfolio).  i also still like Nickel 28, which hit the price target of $1.25 and is selling for $1.17 right now.  bought mine at 80 cents.  this royalty is profitable.  it has a PE of 8.

i am liking Uranium again.  i just shifted 2% of my assets into URNJ

sprottetfs.com/urnj-sprott-junior-uranium-miners-etf/

this holds a bunch of Uranium juniors, and one might assume they would do a better job than me, though i have done pretty well.  i might choose to buy a little extra of these two, if you like them.  i have made 10x money on both of these in the past in under 12 months:

CVV 34 cents Canadian
Bannerman Energy (Pink Sheets) 94 cents US.

not only are the technicals very favorable on these stocks, but Uranium just broke through to a 1 year high.  in addition, the fundamentals are really good on Uranium right now.  demand is finally picking up, and supply is down due to poor weather conditions and high extraction costs.  it all points to a bull market which i predict will carry Uranium to $70/lb next year.  it is selling for $54 right now.  senior miners generally grow twice as fast as base metals, and juniors, if you choose well, 4x as fast.  you do the math.

[djAdvocate]

note: uranium is technically an industrial metal, but i think of it as an "energy metal".  it is unique in this respect, and similar to coal, except for the push toward lower polluting energy is making countries like China re-evaluate nuclear power, which is driving demand.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 27, 2022 18:59:39 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i am updating prices from the last post

expect gold and gold miners to go up 20% over the next six weeks.
RGLD 110 target 135 (price target hit, currently 141) +22.7
MMX 5, target 5.5-6 (converted to 0.36 TFPM currently at 17 = 6.12) +15
SAND 5.6, target 9 (currently at 6, still a great buy) +7
CA:NKL 1.0 target 1.25 (hit 1.25 last week) +25
WPM 40 target 50 (price target hit, currently 51.92) +25
FNV 140 target 170 (currently at 160 and looking good) +14.3

SAND is seriously lagging.

NOTE: NKL is a nickle and cobalt royalty, but both of those metals are good now, too.

so, SAND at 6 and FNV at 160 carry forward along with the uraniums, triple flag, and NKL.
YTD on this portfolio is +18.2%

[djAdvocate]

i still think there is plenty of wind behind the Uraniums.

liking Laramide the best.

if you don't know which way to turn, buy URNJ

[djAdvocate]

i still have three uraniums:

PALAF $0.668- $0.815
UROY $4.39 - $3.63
MGAAF$0.298 - $.3779
URA $26 (my old price target was 40, my new one is 32)

Mega has actual earnings. it has a PE of 9.

To the above list, I am adding the following:

APAAF = $0.60 - $0.1517
BNNLF = $0.23 - $2.372**
FDCFF = $0.20 - $0.12
AU:EME $A0.25 - $0.195

CVV: $C0.34 - $0.59


Here is the list from 2022 on. i am dumping APAAF at a 75% loss, and adding Laramide @$c0.80

**something is wrong with this number. must have had a reverse split. i am checking this one.

[djAdvocate]

URA hit it's strike price of $32. + 23%

Bannerman did indeed have a 10:1 reverse split.

so, of those stocks, only MGA and CVV have substantial gains.

+22
-17
+27
+23*
-75*
-40
-22
+74

-8/9 = -0.9% over two years.
i am pretty confident it gets better from here, though.
add URNJ to the list to replace URA. $27.53
URNJ was not even available in 2022.

*SOLD.