metals, mining, and more......

[Value Buy]

May 5, 2019 15:31:44 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

this market looks "sick" to me.

since the beginning of the last bounce, the momentum of this market has been steadily decreasing. when it approached new highs last month, the daily volatility had fallen to nearly zero. now, volatility is increasing as the market pulls back, but without associated volume that we see in bull markets.

it would not surprise me if we were months (not days or weeks) away from another correction.

let's see if I am right.

gold looks like it MIGHT be a safe haven. the momentum is almost exactly the opposite of the equities market.

Are you referencing over all stock markets or just the metals and mining markets?
Hard for me to tell by the post

[djAdvocate]

May 6, 2019 8:13:34 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

May 5, 2019 15:31:44 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

this market looks "sick" to me.

since the beginning of the last bounce, the momentum of this market has been steadily decreasing. when it approached new highs last month, the daily volatility had fallen to nearly zero. now, volatility is increasing as the market pulls back, but without associated volume that we see in bull markets.

it would not surprise me if we were months (not days or weeks) away from another correction.

let's see if I am right.

gold looks like it MIGHT be a safe haven. the momentum is almost exactly the opposite of the equities market.

Are you referencing over all stock markets or just the metals and mining markets?
Hard for me to tell by the post

"US Equities".

and by "correction", i mean 10%+

[Value Buy]

May 7, 2019 11:04:31 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

May 6, 2019 8:13:34 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Are you referencing over all stock markets or just the metals and mining markets?
Hard for me to tell by the post

"US Equities".

and by "correction", i mean 10%+

That was why I asked whether it was just the metal markets.
Hope you are wrong because that is almost a mid six figure number decline for me......then again, it could all be back in two months after the decline......

[djAdvocate]

May 7, 2019 11:12:21 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

May 7, 2019 11:04:31 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

"US Equities".

and by "correction", i mean 10%+

That was why I asked whether it was just the metal markets.
Hope you are wrong because that is almost a mid six figure number decline for me......then again, it could all be back in two months after the decline......

this bull market has never fully capitulated.

it is way overdue.

invest wisely. 

jmho.

I am 51% cash this morning.

most of the balance is in mining shares.

NOTE: the mining equities will fall in a correction. guaranteed.

that will create purchasing opportunities, provided the underlying assets increase.

[Value Buy]

Not sure what kind of total volume the NYSE and Nasdaq is having today, but I just checked all our personal holdings and none are trading anything close to their average daily volume.
With the markets down almost 2% I would expect some big volume today.
Evidently the professionals are not selling in heavy volume.

[djAdvocate]

May 7, 2019 14:59:09 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Not sure what kind of total volume the NYSE and Nasdaq is having today, but I just checked all our personal holdings and none are trading anything close to their average daily volume.
With the markets down almost 2% I would expect some big volume today.
Evidently the professionals are not selling in heavy volume.

nor are they buying. that is actually the more relevant feature of this downturn, imo.

+0.1% today. the golds were up, the uraniums were down.

i expect that trend to continue.

NOTE: if this trade war is settled, this market will settle down, and recover somewhat. but i am worried that Trump feels that he has more to win politically by fighting this war than we have economically to lose from it.

[djAdvocate]

dow down another 500.

gold up 1%.

good day for gold, bad day for equities.

mining shares were mixed, but mostly higher.

unfortunately, base metals were not, so i was off a little today.

but not much.

i should have sold my UUUU at $3+

i hate selling 100% of my shares in stocks i like, even when they run up.

i need to develop more discipline about that.

i should probably sell EVERYTHING about once a year, and start over again,

evaluating one company at a time.

[djAdvocate]

so, the dow is down 7% this month.

and it still looks sick to me.

edit: +0.4% today.

[djAdvocate]

ok, this was a terrific day. +1.2%, 50% cash.

this is the first time I can ever remember that EVERY ONE of my holdings was higher. every....one.

this was simply a barnburner. I had seven holdings up more than 5.5%, and two up over 15%.

remarkable. if every day were like this, I would never post on this board. or any other board.

edit: my mutual fund was +3%, which bumped things up further. 

NOTE: CEF (the hard asset gold and silver fund) is up 4% in three trading days.

gold is going berserk over the trade news.  busted through a major resistance level.

[djAdvocate]

another really good day. +0.5%
portfolio is now up 4% in the last month.
this bounce has been good.
but in addition, there is some momentum in the precious metals sector
UNWPX is +10% in the last three weeks.
I might buy some more of that. I have been holding it during
this steep drop. but it is severely undervalued, now.

[djAdvocate]

yesterday was my best day of the year, and this morning is a "follow on".

I am up 1/2%, and approaching a high that dates back to the crash in early 2018.

precious metals were exploding yesterday. today it is uraniums, which are +2-3%

portfolio is +8% in the last month. 50% cash.

edit: PS- UNWPX was +5% yesterday. 

[djAdvocate]

Gold is +9% in the last month, and approaching a (6) year high.

there are so many undervalued equities in this area that you are better off with a mutual fund.
I still like UNWPX.

[djAdvocate]

+0.7% today.
now +10% YTD.
this has been a very good month.

edit: gold closed at a 6 year high today, and is piling it on after hours, up another 1/2%.

this is the best price we have seen since the correction of 2013.

[djAdvocate]

bummed that I was down today.
gold was up, but not as much as in the morning, but Uranium got down, and then it got worse.
several of my Uraniums were SHARPLY lower, which dragged me into the red.
still outperformed the market by quite a bit, I was -0.1%

[djAdvocate]

+0.7% today.
now resting on an 11 month high.
less than 1% from a 2 year high.

less than 3% from an all time high.

I need more trade war talks!!!
BRING THEM!!!!

[Value Buy]

May 7, 2019 12:45:09 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

May 7, 2019 11:12:21 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

That was why I asked whether it was just the metal markets.
Hope you are wrong because that is almost a mid six figure number decline for me......then again, it could all be back in two months after the decline......

this bull market has never fully capitulated.

it is way overdue.

invest wisely. 

jmho.

I am 51% cash this morning.

most of the balance is in mining shares.

NOTE: the mining equities will fall in a correction. guaranteed.

that will create purchasing opportunities, provided the underlying assets increase.

Still no bull market capitulation.
DOW, record close today
Nasdaq record close today
S&P500 record close today
On top of that gold is stll going great this year!

[djAdvocate]

indeed. this is a rare confluence. equities and metals are in parallel right now.

LGORF is a screaming bargain at $1.50, imo.

[djAdvocate]

AMYZF is +23% on a bullish article about battery recycling.

another (13) month high today.

[djAdvocate]

gold was down, but AMY was +20% AGAIN.

I put in a sell order for 20% of my shares at 18 cents. it didn't fill.
it will probably fill before I wake up tomorrow.

total = +0.2%
new (13) month high.

[djAdvocate]

there are a couple of other recyclers in the sector that might be worth considering, if you guys like foreign securities (I do):

Umicore is a Belgian company that has an American ADR
Fortum is a Finnish company that has an American ADR

both are profitable and mid-cap

neither are as clear a play as AMYZF, but AMY is highly speculative, in that they don't have any "field ready" products.

[djAdvocate]

AMY was up 20%...AGAIN. third day in a row.

this time everything else clicked, too. +0.9%, and at an 18 month high dating back to just before the crash (2/1/18)

[djAdvocate]

big smackdown the last week or so. off 1%.
golds got hammered today.
AMY has fallen off about 25% from it's peak.
some of the Uraniums are behaving well, but that is about it.

[djAdvocate]

really liking Umicore at $7.66
gonna pick up some shares monday

[djAdvocate]

gold is +1% in the Asian market.
silver is +1.2%
should be a good day tomorrow.

[djAdvocate]

beautiful day. +0.5%
unfortunately, Canadian markets were closed, or I would have been up a ton more.
sold 1/3 of my AGI today for $7.46, and bought a bunch of Umicore for $7.34
I am excited about what might happen tomorrow, but I probably shouldn't be.
there is a good chance the market will bounce tomorrow and gold will fall.
but hopefully the Canadian stocks will make up for the loss.

edit: gold is up another 0.3% AH.

if this holds, mining shares are going to go ballistic tomorrow.

[djAdvocate]

yeah, regression to the mean, and dead cat bounce. predictable.
gold stocks were down today, even though gold was up.
selling into strength.
it is creating value.

buy.

edit: my AGI for Umicore swap widened today: 7.66/7.3 = +5%

edit2: liking HDSN at $0.575.

I owned some of this years ago.

paid $2 for it, and sold it at $8.

it looks like they are going to start making money again.

if they do, it will go to over $1, for sure.

this is highly speculative.

I like this sector, tho.

air conditioning, with lots of industrial users.

[djAdvocate]

and.....back to beautiful again.

gold up 2%
market down 1%

perfect storm for metals holders.

[djAdvocate]

the Umicore/AGI swap spread continues to widen!

7.94/7.15 = +11%

that having been said, AGI is likely to turn higher tomorrow.
it filled the gap from Monday, and traded 6M shares today.

the golds are all pretty undervalued, and are likely to move sharply higher.
good buying opportunity for UNWPX @$3.20
I expect a clean double on this in the next year.

[djAdvocate]

surprisingly good day today, fueled by a nice gain in AMY.
+0.5%
I always underperform in up markets.
especially when gold is down.

[djAdvocate]

-0.1% today. market down 400, so not feeling bad about that.

CEF continues to score high after high after high.

+20% in the last three months, and +10% in the last month.
set a 3 year high this week, and is testing a 5 year high.

edit: AMY was +15% today.  I expect it to add to those gains tomorrow.