metals, mining, and more......

[djAdvocate]

hey, how about the metals sector? is anyone here good at it? what's the outlook?

if i remember right, bimet is good in this area?

i have a lot of uranium investment, which is really an energy and defense play. anyone like that?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Ah metals...

Yeah bimetalaupt called the $1100 mark in gold a while back, a few of us had it lower... higher rates.. guess will see.

I like metal for catalyst now, really big fan to be honest.

Personally I'm not a fan of uranium. We had a discussion a while back about Thorium reactors because it looked like there were going to be development in them.

That said, China and Russia are apparently looking at building mini reactors, and I know a plant in Northern Alabama was just sold to an LLC(?) that has big plans for nuclear energy in the east. There could be growth in the industry on the way for the first time in a lot of years....

[djAdvocate]

it seems to me like the Trump admin could change the dynamic here, considerably.

[flow5]

seekingalpha.com/article/4031500-remember-hunt-brothers-silver-market-now-cornered

Short squeeze in silver

[djAdvocate]

silver has been running ahead of gold for a while now.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Dec 19, 2016 11:48:55 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

it seems to me like the Trump admin could change the dynamic here, considerably.

What are your thoughts?

The biggest thing with nuclear is the input costs and power demand.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 21, 2016 0:13:16 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Dec 19, 2016 11:48:55 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

it seems to me like the Trump admin could change the dynamic here, considerably.

What are your thoughts?

The biggest thing with nuclear is the input costs and power demand.

input costs are highly dependent on the regulatory environment, and code practices.

the base material is actually declining in cost, and has been for some time.

[tyfighter3]

Just a question, how many Nuclear Power Plants have been built in this country in the last 25 years?

[djAdvocate]

Dec 22, 2016 22:50:51 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

Just a question, how many Nuclear Power Plants have been built in this country in the last 25 years?

probably none.  but considering that we had 3 mile Island and (16) years of Democratic leadership during that time, it is hardly surprising.

the latest announcement from Trump should help things.  i bought some UUUU last week, and it is already +5%.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Dec 21, 2016 12:19:54 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Dec 21, 2016 0:13:16 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

What are your thoughts?

The biggest thing with nuclear is the input costs and power demand.

input costs are highly dependent on the regulatory environment, and code practices.

the base material is actually declining in cost, and has been for some time.

Sorry for the delayed response here, holidays.. Actually kind of glad that I waited because this news came out yesterday.. Toshiba flags hit of 'billions of dollars' on U.S. nuclear acquisition. Plus, TVA has now sold off two unfinished plants for pennies on the dollar. This last one they auctioned off, they made it known that there is no real demand for new power in the area.

When I say input, I'm not talking about the cost of uranium, I'm talking about the cost of the stations, and here are two clear examples of why - as Ty pointed out - there have been essentially no new nuclear reactors come online in the past 25-30 years.

You pointed out Three Mile Island, and I also agree that has been a negative for nuclear. Of course Fukushima is 100x worse as that disaster is still spewing material into the Pacific ocean, and we are now getting traces of waste on the west coast of North America.

I agree that regulations can affect the cost, and that reduced regulations could easily lead to gains because of speculation, however, coal more than nuclear has been a victim of regulations.

[djAdvocate]

oh, sorry.  i would consider those things "structural costs", and sure, they are high in the US.

candidly, my investments in this area are more focused on China and India.  i don't see how they come out of the developing market stage without nuclear.  most of my mining interests are in Canada and Australia, who stand to benefit from that trend.

now, if you think that China and India are going to bomb, i would be interested in hearing that.

that having been said, a more relaxed environment on this subject at home would also be welcome.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Cameco!

JMO, long term India and China will make it. Short term, JMO but the eastern hemisphere is F.U.B.A.R...

thediplomat.com/2016/12/arif-jamal-why-jamaat-ud-dawa-is-a-bigger-threat-than-isis/

inserbia.info/today/2015/12/bardos-islamic-state-has-400000-supporters-in-the-balkans/

Check out the last four or five posts on the Asian crisis thread on here... plus:

Many tend to forget that the Mujahideen army uses financial weapons as well. They are well aware of China's tight rope..

Also, many refugees that have entered Europe have done so under the pretense of invasion....

[djAdvocate]

i am not seeing what your posts have to do with China and India.  seems like EUROPE is fucked, to me......

not following your comment about Mujaheddin, either. 

but i do like me some Cameco! 

edit: getting back to the point, why would the uncertainty caused by ISIS not be GOOD for metals, mining, and more?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I think that if Trump announces an infrastructure plan it's going to be very good for metals, mining, and more. In fact, this past year it has been good.. I also think 2017 is probably going to close to the last year in the post WW2 era..


Yes, Europe is probably going to go through it all one more time, along with the rest of the Eastern Hemisphere. I'm sorry you don't see what India and China have to do with the information above, and the posts on the Asian crisis thread; I'll try and condense it a bit...

The easiest way to explain it; large armies of Islamic fundamentals have amassed in SE Asia and the Balkans while the Mid East has collapsed and flooded Europe with an opposing culture. Afghanistan is essentially back in the hands of the fundamentalists, and China's black hole of debt has caught up with them. India is mixed in with all of this because of their history with Pakistan, their large Muslim population, their unstable economy,  and of course the fact that they are basically geographically in the middle of all this.‎ The debt loads of China cannot handle all out war, and the fundamentalists know this.

To expand a bit, this is precisely where I was worried we would end up back in 2014 when Putin invaded the Ukraine and I was trying to warn a few of you guys around here what it meant. Now it's Putin this, Putin that, and the icing on the cake is that Iran had their sanctions lifted and billions injected into the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.. Jihad global, with an Asian Crisis mixed in for good measure...

Long term India and China will make it, but I'm fairly certain we are at the steps backwards and revaluation point in our time line as a species.  It's like I was saying to a good friend about a year ago, it's all about focusing on businesses that are mostly dependent on the North American market.  Of course, these are just my thoughts.  

[djAdvocate]

China's Muslim population, at 1.6%, is less than what it is in the US. 

India's is far more significant.  it is around 14% there.  and i agree, it is a much more incoherent mixed economy, there.  but it still seems far safer to me than Europe (particularly the Balkans).

i thought that China was the world's largest CREDITOR.  wrong?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

China has added more debt, faster to their balance sheets in the last 8 years than any country in the history of the world. They are completely over built, and their way out of this over capacity was the one road initiative; which is hitting a wall of war...

[djAdvocate]

Jan 1, 2017 10:46:13 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

China has added more debt, faster to their balance sheets in the last 8 years than any country in the history of the world. They are completely over built, and their way out of this over capacity was the one road initiative; which is hitting a wall of war...

wall of war?

also- was i wrong?  is China not the largest creditor nation?  never mind, i will look it up:

and the answer is NO.  it's Japan, followed by Germany.  it's funny, because Japan's debt is over 2x it's GDP.

China is in 3rd.  they have $1.6T more lent money than borrowed.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jan 4, 2017 1:56:10 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jan 1, 2017 10:46:13 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

China has added more debt, faster to their balance sheets in the last 8 years than any country in the history of the world. They are completely over built, and their way out of this over capacity was the one road initiative; which is hitting a wall of war...

wall of war?

also- was i wrong?  is China not the largest creditor nation?  never mind, i will look it up:

and the answer is NO.  it's Japan, followed by Germany.  it's funny, because Japan's debt is over 2x it's GDP.

China is in 3rd.  they have $1.6T more lent money than borrowed.

I have been trying to find an article that compliments the one above with the Arif Jamal interview. I keep nodding off, will look tomorrow. But yes, wall of war.

I don't find what is referred to as the "lost score" funny. One of the things that was discussed at length four or five years ago around here was the similarities between Japan and China. At the time it was dismissed, however, over the last couple years it has essentially become the new debate among "professionals."

Now, what the "pros" are missing is why Japan was able to hobble along for 20 odd years. The biggest reasons being that China was growing rapidly during that time, and Japanese companies benefited greatly from the technology boom in the US that started in the 90's. China isn't going to be able to repeat this feat, for a few reasons. The biggest is that we are in a negative interest rate environment for most of the world economy, this was - of course - unheard of and essentially unimaginable just five years ago. Well, that mixed in with the wall of war.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Keeping in mind Europe and the Balkans, I will repost this story thediplomat.com/2016/12/arif-jamal-why-jamaat-ud-dawa-is-a-bigger-threat-than-isis/ and this from 2015 www.pakistanchristianpost.com/headlinenewsd.php?hnewsid=5461 This information is essentially spot in because the fundamentalists now control as much as ever in Afghanistan. The author puts a spin on it near the end, and Arif perpetuates the compartmentalisation of the Mujahideen army, aside from that...

Honestly, this is why I laugh and laugh when I hear about China and Russia working together. Putin screwed China more than anyone with his delusions of grandeur; and that is why I believe by the time the dust settles; China will be a much bigger place.

[djAdvocate]

Jan 5, 2017 1:51:13 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Jan 4, 2017 1:56:10 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

wall of war?

also- was i wrong?  is China not the largest creditor nation?  never mind, i will look it up:

and the answer is NO.  it's Japan, followed by Germany.  it's funny, because Japan's debt is over 2x it's GDP.

China is in 3rd.  they have $1.6T more lent money than borrowed.

I have been trying to find an article that compliments the one above with the Arif Jamal interview. I keep nodding off, will look tomorrow. But yes, wall of war.

I don't find what is referred to as the "lost score" funny. One of the things that was discussed at length four or five years ago around here was the similarities between Japan and China. At the time it was dismissed, however, over the last couple years it has essentially become the new debate among "professionals."

Now, what the "pros" are missing is why Japan was able to hobble along for 20 odd years. The biggest reasons being that China was growing rapidly during that time, and Japanese companies benefited greatly from the technology boom in the US that started in the 90's. China isn't going to be able to repeat this feat, for a few reasons. The biggest is that we are in a negative interest rate environment for most of the world economy, this was - of course - unheard of and essentially unimaginable just five years ago. Well, that mixed in with the wall of war.

i still don't understand what you mean by "wall of war".  what is that?

[djAdvocate]

dennison is up 50% since the election:

bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=DNN&insttype=Stock&freq=1&show=&time=5

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jan 5, 2017 13:21:50 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jan 5, 2017 1:51:13 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I have been trying to find an article that compliments the one above with the Arif Jamal interview. I keep nodding off, will look tomorrow. But yes, wall of war.

I don't find what is referred to as the "lost score" funny. One of the things that was discussed at length four or five years ago around here was the similarities between Japan and China. At the time it was dismissed, however, over the last couple years it has essentially become the new debate among "professionals."

Now, what the "pros" are missing is why Japan was able to hobble along for 20 odd years. The biggest reasons being that China was growing rapidly during that time, and Japanese companies benefited greatly from the technology boom in the US that started in the 90's. China isn't going to be able to repeat this feat, for a few reasons. The biggest is that we are in a negative interest rate environment for most of the world economy, this was - of course - unheard of and essentially unimaginable just five years ago. Well, that mixed in with the wall of war.

i still don't understand what you mean by "wall of war".  what is that?

So, China's way out of their current  liquidity trap would have been to create massive trade routes, or their "One Belt" initiative as it's known. Basically, they would have had to create their own economic boom in Asia, similar to how "western" money created a boom within China. 

Problem is that war is essentially the destruction of economic growth, and the areas that China was targeting for their "New Silk Road" are now essentially war zones.(Thanks to Putin allowing the Jihad to go global)

So, instead of being able to push through with economic growth and development, they have hit a wall(of war).‎ Due to this - very subtlety - China has been changing their non interventionist foreign policy, and that is why this world war is going to be China's. The "New Silk Road" will be built, it's just not going to be as easy: which, really nothing is.
‎
‎

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jan 5, 2017 13:22:09 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

dennison is up 50% since the election:

bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=DNN&insttype=Stock&freq=1&show=&time=5

Awesome!

I was reading today that General Dynamic might get a huge contract. This plays into the defense angle you were talking about.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-05/new-nuclear-armed-subs-win-pentagon-approval-before-obama-leaves

Talk about a nice dividend!

www.smarteranalyst.com/2017/01/03/general-dynamics-corporation-gd-profit-boosts-defense-spending/

Might not give ya gains of 50% in a little over a month, but that's a lot of real paper going into your account.

[djAdvocate]

Jan 5, 2017 15:07:22 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Jan 5, 2017 13:22:09 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

dennison is up 50% since the election:

bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=DNN&insttype=Stock&freq=1&show=&time=5

Awesome!

I was reading today that General Dynamic might get a huge contract. This plays into the defense angle you were talking about.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-05/new-nuclear-armed-subs-win-pentagon-approval-before-obama-leaves

Talk about a nice dividend!

www.smarteranalyst.com/2017/01/03/general-dynamics-corporation-gd-profit-boosts-defense-spending/

Might not give ya gains of 50% in a little over a month, but that's a lot of real paper going into your account.

the uranium miner i mentioned earlier (UUUU) was +10% today.

i am going to try to find a base metals ETF.  i think they are next in line for a pop.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Are you thinking because of infrastructure announcements? Makes sense if ya..

One thing to keep in mind and I have been thinking about, CAT has been beat up like crazy. Infrastructure projects need equipment.

[djAdvocate]

Jan 6, 2017 1:31:37 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Are you thinking because of infrastructure announcements? Makes sense if ya..

One thing to keep in mind and I have been thinking about, CAT has been beat up like crazy. Infrastructure projects need equipment.

i think that nativism + infrastructure = basic materials manufactured in the US.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jan 6, 2017 11:11:04 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jan 6, 2017 1:31:37 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Are you thinking because of infrastructure announcements? Makes sense if ya..

One thing to keep in mind and I have been thinking about, CAT has been beat up like crazy. Infrastructure projects need equipment.

i think that nativism + infrastructure = basic materials manufactured in the US.

One way or another it's too big of a trend to change; The American Renaissance!

Also, this is something for the uranium investor to keep an eye on.. www.bizjournals.com/boston/news/2017/01/05/mass-officials-worried-about-safety-at.html

[djAdvocate]

Jan 6, 2017 20:38:08 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Jan 6, 2017 11:11:04 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i think that nativism + infrastructure = basic materials manufactured in the US.

One way or another it's too big of a trend to change; The American Renaissance!

Also, this is something for the uranium investor to keep an eye on.. www.bizjournals.com/boston/news/2017/01/05/mass-officials-worried-about-safety-at.html

i think this is gilding the Lilly, unless you think Shogun Era Japan was also a "renaissance". 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

nice one.

Supply line issues, rasing wages... reshoring was well underway before President Trump won. Force is going to make the next phase play out fast than anticipated back in like 2010..

[djAdvocate]

2016 was actually a good year for wages.....

but i would rather talk about mining.  i get enough of this discussion "elsewhere". 

my portfolio hit a new high on Friday.  i was up almost 80% in 2016.

of course, i was DOWN in 2015, so i had some catching up to do.......

footnote: to be clear, i am done being the dewey-eyed optimist.  that is why my post volume is down 60%.  i am going to work hard, capitalize on my advantages, and retire rich.