metals, mining, and more......

[djAdvocate]

MACIF was +30% today.  i have some of this in my son's college portfolio, so his portfolio hit a record high today, +16% in the last (4) months. 

i have no idea what is driving this stock.  it might make a penny this year, and is selling for $1.65.  it is years away from reporting anything meaningful in earnings.  but it is in a pretty safe area: royalties.  it will probably perform pretty well over time, but i can't really recommend it at this price.  but it was nice to see it pop.

[djAdvocate]

anyone on the LGORF ride?  it is almost to $3.50.  target is $6.  i started this one at around a dollar.

[djAdvocate]

good day, here.  +0.5%

this is exactly the situation this portfolio is designed for (negative beta).

i had a triple bottom over the last six months.  the third bottom came yesterday.

so, i am pretty bullish going forward.  but a serious crash would change the math.

two of the major indexes are already in correction mode.  the entire market is below

support, and below Feb 1st.  so, this looks like a retreat to me.  where it stops is anyone's

guess, and i am not the guessing type.  i just hope it keeps up (down). 

[djAdvocate]

the gold seniors are starting to move.  not sure why, yet.  the metal itself is not performing well.  dollar?

MUX and AGI are both +15% in the last month.

[djAdvocate]

URPTF hit a 3 year high today.  i am going to unload some shares tomorrow.

this is good news for Uraniums.  still bullish there.  i won't list the names.  you guys won't buy them anyway.

[Value Buy]

Oct 15, 2018 9:24:22 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

the gold seniors are starting to move.  not sure why, yet.  the metal itself is not performing well.  dollar?

MUX and AGI are both +15% in the last month.

Not sure why you say this. Gold is pushing the July highs this week. I think traders are thinking inflation is going to push it higher, at least in the near term.

[djAdvocate]

probably because i am in a mixed gold and silver fund, and it is still languishing within 10% of it's low.

[djAdvocate]

it's still not too late to grab Largo.

short term target: $4

intermediate term target: $6

it is sitting right on my low target today: $3

[djAdvocate]

ok, this has been a really bad 2 months for stocks.

my reference index (R2000) is flirting with bear market territory.  it is -16% from the peak of 1742. 

mind you, gold is not really doing well either.  although it is up perceptibly from lows, it is still -11% from it's 12 month high.  so, as a result of that and my really bad short play in Feb, i am actually TRAILING my reference indexes by a couple %.  though, to give myself a bit of credit, i am UP from my lows for the year.

today, i was -0.5%.  gold went nowhere, and everything else fell.  i wish i had more LGORF, which was +10% today.  but it is still a minor holding (though, obviously, it is growing as a share of my portfolio.  it now represents about 2% of what i own).  my stupid mining fund (UNWPX) was -2%, which is DUMB.  gold was up today.  those stocks should be rising.  but as everyone here knows, in a bear market, equities fall.  mass selling will hit EVEN stocks that should be rising in a bear market due to fundamentals.  so, i will wait it out.

i suspect that i will end up positive for the year, but with only 2 months to go, it is not a lot of time to make up the ground.  i would probably be ahead, were it not for Uranium stocks falling 15% in recent weeks.  but that was kind of the final death knell to my pretty defensive portfolio.  everything has kinda gone "unexpectedly".  the stocks that i thought would underperform have done well, and those that i expected to rise have generally gone sideways, leaving me about on average, which sux.  i have historically outperformed the market by over 10%/year, and i can already tell 2018 is not going to be one of those years.

[djAdvocate]

good opportunity to buy LARGO (LGORF) for those that missed the last couple.

it is plummeting for no good reason.  Vanadium recently hit $33/lb, and fell about $2,

but there is nothing to indicate that this is a trend.  in the mean time, this stock has lost

about 1/3 of it's value, has a PE of 9, and will probably make 40c/share this year.

i maintain my target of $6 for this within a year.

[djAdvocate]

LGO hit an interim low of $2.30 today.  i strongly recommend buying this now for a clean double within (6) months. 

in Feb, this stock will report earnings of 15-20 cents per share, up from break even last year.  YTD at that point will be around 60 cents, which will give it a PE of 4.

i maintain a 1 year target of $6 on this, with an intermediate target of $4.75

[djAdvocate]

i might be wrong about this, but the market appears ready to come off the rails.

we have fallen 14% since the high was set in October, and are sitting at or near a 15 month low right now.  the problem with this, if you are guy that follows technicals, is that there is no real support for this market until we get near 2100 on the SP500, which is ANOTHER 16% below where we are, and a full 30% off the high- which would be a pretty bearish turn.

the problem is that there doesn't appear to be a safe haven right now.  oil is falling.  and even though gold is stable, there is little inflation that would drive it up and the dollar is strong.  so i am skeptical that my metals holdings will help me here (they have not so far.  my portfolio is pretty much tracking the market due to the steep decline in oil).

any suggestions, guys?  or do you just fundamentally disagree that we are heading for trouble?

NOTE: SP500 is 2528, if you want to bookmark this moment. 

[djAdvocate]

gold is up 6% off it's low, but equities are depressed due to the market.

good buying opportunity. 

edit: gold is up another 1% today.

[djAdvocate]

3 week high this morning.  that might not sound like much, but December was miserable for my investments.  finished the year down nearly 7% (nearly all of it from a disastrous short in Feb).  the mining stocks are lagging the metals market by 5-10% right now, and are due for a good pop.

AGI and some of the seniors are up sharply this morning.

thinking of picking up some juniors like Raddison.

[djAdvocate]

one month high on Friday.  this is starting to look pretty good.

[djAdvocate]

SPECTACULAR day. +1.48%

my holdings are now up over 8% in the last month, and are at their highest level since October 3rd.

TRX was my big winner today, and is now my #2 holding.

i don't actually like this stock much, but it just got so cheap that i bought a s(*tton of it.

it tends to LEAD gold equities, so count on funds like UNWPX to pick up steam and head higher.

CEF is also approaching an interim high.

U308 is up 40% off it's lows.

everything is looking wonderful for metals and mining shares.

after the mutual funds adjusted, I am now within $100 of a high dating back to AUGUST.

what a great way to end the week.  I hope everyone is doing well, and has a good 2019!

[djAdvocate]

new 5 month high today as gold continues to rise.

edit: I am recommending MACIF this morning purely on technical.  starting at 1.75, target of 2.95

edit2: 1.29.19, up again today.  highest level since August 12th (nearly a six month high).

if you all are wondering what this means, since I have a broad defensive portfolio it means the following equities are rising:

1) precious metals

2) energy stocks

3) negative beta stocks

4) some of the interest-sensitives (ie, income shares)

remember: I am 50% cash right now.  so the fact that I am +9% in the last month means +18% on equities, +0% on cash.

[djAdvocate]

STILL gaining, STILL approaching a 6 month high- now dating back to 8/8/18.

uranium is performing well (it usually does in the Winter).

several uranium issues were up 5-10% today, including URPTF.

uranium is now selling for $29/lb, which is up from a recent low of $18 a couple of years back.

still 50% cash. not much out there that interests me, except the stuff I already own.

I ran my screener today, and only NINE stocks passed. half of them were construction, which I don't like right now.

[djAdvocate]

6 month high on Friday. I am disappointed in the mutual funds in the metals sector, but most of my holdings are outperforming the funds.

still 50% cash, with a nice 10% gain since Christmas. good year so far, but I usually do well in the 1st quarter, because of my uranium holdings.

MACIF still looks good.

[Value Buy]

We were very fortunate in December.
The markets were tanking, and our IRA funds paid the dividends and the number of shares purchased were quite generous in numbers due to lower share price.
Today our two main funds are up over $4 a share since distribution date, and the third smaller one is up $1.76 a share.
We are anticipating huge capital gains this next December just like last year. 
Private stock portfolio is doing pretty good off the lows with the exception of Kellogg's. 
We will stop drip programs in two stocks this year, and one or two next year, as we want to start minimizing stock portfolio to total net worth. 
We will continue to stay away from gold as an investment, as we do not have the stomach or enough knowledge in it to maintain a position.
I bought some silver one oz bars years ago and still sitting underwater on them........lesson learned. Probably leave these to the kids and hope inflation eventually helps them in 30 or 40 years

[djAdvocate]

the metals themselves are actually outperforming the equities, which is highly unusual.

today is a good example. the metal was +0.8%
that would NORMALLY translate to about a 1.6% gain in equities,
but my equities were ALSO +0.8% today

so, yeah, i am STILL sitting on a six month high.
it STILL dates back to August 8th.
and although admittedly closer to that close, it
is a very very slow slog.

i presume most of you are probably doing better.
this was a spectacular day on the market.

[djAdvocate]

I don't usually recommend SENIOR mining stocks, but I like Norilsk Nickel right now.
it is the #1 Palladium miner in the world, and Palladium is soaring. start at 20.65, target = 30.

note: this is a Russian miner, and has sanctions and cleanup pressure, so it is not without risk.

edit: another 6 month high today, again dating back to 8/8/18.  Canadian markets were open. 

[djAdvocate]

another 6 month high, and $100 short of an (8) month high!

this looks like the second leg of a cyclic bull for gold, to me.

very nice gains today, across the board.

[djAdvocate]

I am recommending AMY here.

starting price 0.11
target 0.22

this looks like it has bottomed out, with a lot of good news coming.

AMYZF

[djAdvocate]

new 8 month high! super pleased with my gains so far this year. I am 50% cash and up 10% in less than 2 months.

gold shares are rolling pretty good now. finally beginning to pick up steam again after lying flat for a couple of weeks.

looking forward to the next couple of months.

[djAdvocate]

another 8 month high. everything is really clicking today, including lowly CSFFF which is up nearly 10%

[djAdvocate]

I just noticed that Uranium is at a 3+ year high.

this might be a good time to pick up some Uranium shares.

[djAdvocate]

nice day today. +0.3%

Uranium leading the way: UUUU

I actually don't like this stock very much. probably sell all of it shortly.

[djAdvocate]

metals have been soft the last month.
hanging in there, but the real money is in the major markets.

unfortunately.

[djAdvocate]

this market looks "sick" to me.

since the beginning of the last bounce, the momentum of this market has been steadily decreasing. when it approached new highs last month, the daily volatility had fallen to nearly zero. now, volatility is increasing as the market pulls back, but without associated volume that we see in bull markets.

it would not surprise me if we were months (not days or weeks) away from another correction.

let's see if I am right.

gold looks like it MIGHT be a safe haven. the momentum is almost exactly the opposite of the equities market.