metals, mining, and more......

[djAdvocate]

i feel pretty confident that i am going to get my ass kicked today. 

(regression to the mean)

edit: yep.  -0.8%

[djAdvocate]

more regression yesterday, -0.7%.  today is better, +0.4%.  uraniums are out in front today- my top three gainers are all in this sector.

edit: my big winner today was plateau uranium (+12%).  this is selling for C$0.65.  i think it will end up at C$90 within the year.  that having been said, it has SIGNIFICANT resistance at C$0.71.  if it breaks through that level, it will be at a FOUR YEAR HIGH.  if you are looking for financials on this, don't bother.  they have no revenue.  this is an exploration stage company that burns through about $2-3M/year in cash. 

[djAdvocate]

gonna finish +0.6% today.

way up, slow glide down, but back up in the end.  ended up +0.2% for the week.

[djAdvocate]

+1.4%, new record high.  everything is clicking today except AGI.

edit: AMY is up again, and i think it is going to really pop here, soon.  i have more shares for sale near 30 cents.
edit2: DNN is popping.  it is at 60 cents and i think it is heading for 75.  SORL was my biggest gainer today.

[Value Buy]

Nov 30, 2017 17:19:49 GMT -5 verrip1 said:

Stopped out of SLV today.  A really bad week for silver.

Looked at GLD and decided it was time to sell it today, too.

Do you think the hysteria over Bitcoin pricing has hit the metals, at least for the near term?

[djAdvocate]

+0.4% today, another record high.  this time it is mostly SORL, which is going nuts.

edit: +$50 today.  booo!  hahaha.  SORL & HDSN gains were offset by a fall in some of my Uraniums.

+24.5% YTD now.  should break 25% easily.

[djAdvocate]

+0.9% 

yay

SORL got clobbered, everything else was up.

edit: finished +1.1%, new record high, now up 26% for the year.

my big winner today is RDS, which i really like.  i have owned this stock for years.  bought my shares at way below 10 cents.  don't know how or why, now.  for some reason i liked it.  but what is funny about this one is that it has gone fairly consistently higher during the time i have owned it, without significantly pulling back.  i picked up shares in 2013, and it has gained every year.  i wish i had bought a lot more.  but this pop in the last two days is unprecedented.  it has gone up 50% in two days (though it pulled back late today).  i don't have immediate plans to sell it, because it is only 1% of my portfolio.  in the last two days, it has therefore accounted for about 1/3 of my gain.  i wish all of my juniors were this slow and steady.  it is rare for me to hold them without trading them for over four years like this.  but i would love it if i could trade less than i do. 

[djAdvocate]

-0.7% yesterday, +1% today.  SORL and some of the juniors leading the way.  in both cases. 

[verrip1]

Dec 11, 2017 16:33:14 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Nov 30, 2017 17:19:49 GMT -5 verrip1 said:

Stopped out of SLV today.  A really bad week for silver.

Looked at GLD and decided it was time to sell it today, too.

Do you think the hysteria over Bitcoin pricing has hit the metals, at least for the near term?

Haven't given it thought or research.  I think that PM prices are cyclical for various reasons, and my only interest is where they are, not why they are where they are.  

[djAdvocate]

+1.2% new record high +26.5% YTD.  whoop~!  SORL again.  it is now 5.12% of my holdings, violating my 5% rule.  i am going to go look at the charts and try to figure out when to sell some more shares.

[djAdvocate]

gainers: uraniums, SORL, and SSW (which is my biggest loser)
losers: pretty much everything else

net: -0.15% (which was pretty much identical to the DJIA)

[djAdvocate]

i just noticed that the Uranium Participation fund (URPTF) hit a 52 week high yesterday.  uranium is way up, and trending higher.  it is carrying U308 juniors up with it.  Plateu has doubled, and i think it has another 50% of run left in it.  i am going to highlight a few stocks that have NOT gone along for the ride in the hopes that some of you can profit from what i expect will be a continued rise in this base metal:

UUUU: i have recommended this before.  it is currently selling for about $1.90 and should challenge it's 52 week high of $2.71 within (12) months.
DNN: similar to UUUU, it is selling for 60 cents and has a 52 week high of 90 cents.
BNNLF: teeny Australian miner selling for 6 cents, has a 52 week high of 9 cents.
PUMGF: Canadian miner with a lot of upside potential.  currently selling for less than 7 cents with a high of 14 cents.  i am thinking of picking up some more of this one.

there you have it.  let's see how these look in a few months. 

[djAdvocate]

+0.5% today.  everything that was up yesterday is down today, including the list above /\

big winner today is HDSN.  i just increased my holding in this stock by 7% this morning.  it looks like it is done getting beat up having fallen in HALF since it acquired Airgas (which i think was a very good acquisition).

+0.65%.

this was kindof a cool day.  HDSN was +6% (including 1% after i bought).  every single one of my mutual funds and ETF's were up today.  i don't think i have EVER seen that happen.  it looks like AMY is heading for a breakout.  i have shares for sale at $0.275.  i am +27% this year, now.  so great.  loving it.

[djAdvocate]

+0.6%, +28% YTD.  glorious.

[djAdvocate]

ended up 0.4% yesterday. 

today is a mixed bag.  about half up (the metals) and half down (everything else).  i am basically unchanged.

Plateau Uranium is sharply higher.  it is testing the 52 week high of 55 cents. 

edit: PLUUF closed at 55 cents.  3 year high.  slightly lower today, overall.  call it -0.1%
edit2: after hours adjustments took me to even on Friday.  +27.9% YTD

good week.  great year.  +27.8%

[djAdvocate]

+0.4% this morning.  1/4 of my stocks are not trading (Boxing Day)

edit: +0.6% today, +28.7% YTD.

i am now not so sure that i won't hit +30% for the year.  i just might make it.

lots of big gainers today, and only one clear loser: SORL.

the great thing is that tomorrow my Canadian stocks are going to trade, so unless gold or Uranium gets hammered overnight (always possible), i should have good solid gains tomorrow, too.

[djAdvocate]

clinging on to a new record high today, +28.9% YTD.

as expected, the holiday stocks are leading.  what is unexpected is that CSFFF is -5% today.  boo! 

[djAdvocate]

+29.4% YTD.

so, i need a 0.6% gain tomorrow to hit 30%, and that SEEMS possible.  not likely, as it would match my WEEKLY gain for the year, but POSSIBLE.  this has been a really good couple of months.

edit: my UNWPX mutual fund put me up another 0.1% AH.  so, now, i have to rise 0.52% tomorrow.
everything is looking really good right now.  i suspect that i might actually get my wish. 

however, everything will have to go right.  CSFFF probably holds the key.

[djAdvocate]

i don't think i am going to make it.  HDSN and SORL are both sharply lower.

too bad.  the rest of my holdings are doing great today.  Uranium and precious metals are higher.  if HDSN and SORL can somehow turn around before EOD, i might have a chance, but trading is so thin i don't think i am going to get there.  i am going to have to settle for a measly 29%+ gain for the year.

edit: holy crap!  PLUUF is up 21% and at a 3 year high!!!  so, even though HDSN, SORL and CSFFF are all DOWN, i am now +29.9% YTD.  if this HOLDS, i am going to clear +30%.  wow. 

NEVER GIVE UP!!!  NEVER SURRENDER!!!!

[djAdvocate]

looks like everything TANKED at the close, and that i ended up down today.  i should have stuck with the earlier guess. 

edit: due to AH adjustments, i ended higher, and +29.6% for the year.  this was unexpected.  after being up 80% last year, i would have thought i would be down.  so, yeah, good stuff.

this year is setting up nicely.  up 20% in the last six months, 12% in the last 3, and 5% in the last month.

[djAdvocate]

interesting report:

www.marketwatch.com/story/uranium-participation-corporation-reports-financial-results-for-the-period-ended-november-30-2017-2018-01-11?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

if correct, it will continue to exert upward pressure on U308.

NOTE: the cutbacks in production HURT the majors, like Cameco (CCJ).  i won't bother explaining why.  you guys should just intuitively understand that it is not good.  but, this is where you have to put your thinking caps on- it HELPS the juniors.  because juniors don't actually have any extraction going on, it INCREASES the value of what they have in the dirt, which is all there is for a uranium junior.  so, this is a good time to SELL seniors and BUY juniors.  when U hits $50 (eventually it will), the situation will reverse.  a lot of the Juniors will become acquisition targets and mining prospects.  as soon as shovel hits dirt with a junior, you should sell it.  it is more than halfway through the cycle, and you are probably going to lose money on it.

if you want to know what juniors look best, look back through the thread. 

[djAdvocate]

TRX is a bellweather for juniors (typically).  it leads the market by about a week.

it was +15% today, and made a very strong technical breakout (of a so-called "pennant formation").
i think it is a good prospect to reach 60 cents, and is currently selling for 41.

NOTE: i HATE where this company mines, so i own only enough to force me to watch it. 

[djAdvocate]

sold all of my value growth stocks this morning.  i am now 40% cash.

it was weird doing 28 sell orders.  never done that before.  and regretted it. 

[djAdvocate]

ok, i will accept that was pure luck.  i used my gut.  my gut was right.  i traded a 5% loss for a 1% loss.

good trade.

edit: the market was fluctuating wildly this morning.  in the hour i was online selling shit (it was about 2 minutes per trade.  i always make them manually), the DJIA was fluctuating between -30 and -118.  when i signed off it was -183.  i didn't look again until after it closed.

[djAdvocate]

feeling better about that decision today.

of course, the downdraft is taking down metals, too.  but that will stop, imo.  gold and silver have good support about RIGHT HERE.  the market is clearly in a meltdown.  there is no indication that the downward momentum has stopped.  we are sitting right on our YTD lows at close, but i would suspect that another "dead cat bounce" is possible.  they are typically about half the previous day's loss, so that would be another 500 point consolation prize to anyone that stayed in, until the next round of selling sets in.

i could go on and on about why i think this stuff.  but i will only add this: when the momentum breaks, i will post that here.  i will also be buying TIPS to about 20% of portfolio.  and i will leave the other 20% in cash for the moment, waiting for a buying opportunity.

and, of course, i could end up on the wrong side of this.  the market might be up 2000 tomorrow and you guys can all laugh at me.  but i have learned a few things in my 40 years of trading, and one of them is to not fight a trend.

[djAdvocate]

this market appears to be headed to absolute capitulation.

it would not shock me to have the market down "about the same amount" as yesterday.

[verrip1]

Still out of almost all metals.  Sold much of the single country funds and diversified EM stock MFs on the first two days.  Bought back in on dips into SPXL, a 3x S&P 500 ETF and replaced some of the single country stuff, buying intraday dips.  As of Friday close, I was back to -1.5% from my January all time high.  The SPXL sure is a cool roller coaster.

 I guess I just wasn't cut out to be a buy-and-holder.  No matter my age.

[djAdvocate]

i am kinda the opposite.  i play long trends.  my average hold is probably 2-3 years.
some things i have held WAY longer.
but right now, i am almost 50% cash.

[verrip1]

Hey!  Good to post with you again.

I was going to post to you elsewhere to re-state my opinion on ad homs covering organizations as well as individuals, but I thought it would just be too esoteric for the crowd over there.  So few people want to take the time out to just rationally think things out.  They'd rather keep Citizens United at the tip of their tongue, and ignore pleas for thoughtfulness.  Ah, well, it keeps my time posting to a reasonable minimum.

I haven't been as low as 50% in cash ever.  When the better half and I were near peak earnings, I kept an emergency cash reserve occasionally almost as high as 30% during some of the bear cycles, but reduced that significantly in times like 2003 going forward and 2009 going forward.  Some of my worst years were when we entered the distribution phase and I got into passive stock indexes and a duration-focused barbell bond portfolio to 'control risk'.  Hated it!!  Now, I'll momentum down when the market shows it's going to continue down, and momentum up when the market show up until I see recessionary fundamentals.

See you later.

[djAdvocate]

really?  you generally have MORE than 50% cash?  that is amazing to me.

for the last two years, i was less than 5% cash.