metals, mining, and more......

[djAdvocate]

i'm worried too, verrip.  a downturn in precious metals would be SHITTY for my holdings.

it seems like we might be nearing another recession to me.  how do you feel about that idea?

[verrip1]

My opinion hasn't changed much since my rationales expressed in reply #285.  A tax bill and spending cuts would make me more certain, but their absence doesn't scare me.  I think the tax bill may be more suitable for brokering a deal than a spending cuts bill would be, but that's nothing more than my reading of tea leaves.

I have gone from holding VTI as a foundation for US stock holdings to a broad based long/short opportunity fund, so that right there is a defensive move - however, for now it's also a momentum move since the long/short fund outperforms VTI. 

[djAdvocate]

the dollar is also moving sharply higher, which is making me nervous.

[djAdvocate]

nice move today, +0.8%.

however, i am STILL -2.5% from my peak in Feb and October.

how is everyone else doing?  given the market is at record highs, i would imagine y'all are, too?

edit: finished +1.1%, which is awesome.  now -2% from my peak.  i am not confident about this continuing, but i sure would LIKE that to happen.

[verrip1]

I peaked in October, and, with the market open, I am at a peak again as of this writing.

[djAdvocate]

ARCTF is getting bought out for C$1.80.  i sold my shares at $1.39 this morning.  i don't like waiting around for buyouts.

edit: i had THREE issues that were up over 10% today, and another up over 6%, which made up for the general weakness in the portfolio, and resulted in a 0.1% gain.  kinda shocking, considering that most of my stocks were solidly in the red today. 

[djAdvocate]

i picked up some AGI, TRX, and AUMN on a DCA play after selling my ARTCF.

edit: +0.8% today, and 1.4% below October peak.  metals are strong today.

[djAdvocate]

+1.25% this morning!!!!  now down just 0.2% from October.

this is a really weird rally.  metals are flat, but the stocks are going nuts.
my top (6) holdings are ALL DOWN.  so this is just "everything else"
being sharply higher.

edit:OK, it is not so weird.  it is URANIUM.  URPTF is +10% today, and
all of my Uranium juniors are going absolutely nuts.  it is kind of a quiet
part of my portfolio usually, but it is seriously popping today.  half a
dozen of these are +5-15%.

edit2: ok, this is reaching insane gain levels.  +1.9%, and ahead of
October, in record territory.  let's see if it holds.

edit3: it didn't hold.  it deteriorated during the day, then, in the last
hour, it rallied again, back to +1.9% and a new record.  woo hoo.
i was wrong about my old high, tho.  it was in SEPTEMBER.

phenomenal day, considering the overall market.  made me happy. 

edit4: i double checked my math, and i am indeed sitting on a new high,
shattering the old record by 0.5%.  high fives all around!  this is the highest
my account has been since i raided it to buy a commercial building in 2012.

[djAdvocate]

fell 0.5% on Friday, and finished almost exactly on my old high (set in Feb and September).

not sure where it goes from here.  the momentum FEELS good, but i don't trust my feelings.

[djAdvocate]

it's all about SORL today.  stock is +12%, and as a result, i am +0.7%.
sold 10% of my shares at $6.23 this morning.
sitting on a new record high.

edit: earnings are due on this stock Wednesday.  there must be some whisper numbers out there, because the stock has risen about 50% since the announcement.

NOTE: the stock got clobbered on it's last earnings report.  even though revenues were up, earnings were down due to reduced margins.  i have reviewed it, and it looks like an anomaly to me.  i suspect that the company will earn about 40 cents per share this period.  selling at $6, it is pretty cheap.  i think the market recognizes that.  it really should be a $20 stock, but since it is Chinese, it gets heavily discounted.

edit2: SORL lost half it's gain, so i lost almost all of mine.  finished +0.1%.

[djAdvocate]

base metals are getting clobbered, so i am -1.3% today.  #sad

[djAdvocate]

SORL is +22% today, making up for another weak day.  i am about even.

i put in a sale for another 10% of my shares at $7.57
earnings came in at 44 cents for the 3rd quarter, which
beat expectations by 26 cents!  unfortunately, i missed
the open, when it was at over $8.

edit: that was a good strike.  it went to $7.60 twice
after i posted the above, and i got my shares unloaded.
it closed at $7.20, and i finished +0.3%.  i would have
been down were it not for that monster gain.

i am still overweight on this stock with a price target
of $12.

[djAdvocate]

metals getting a nice bump this morning.  +0.8%, and resting on a new high.

edit: oh man.  that was so beautiful. 

so, i finished a full percent above my old high today, +1.5%
URANIUM is crushing it.

Purepoint (PUMGF) is leading the way.  it's +50% this month.
but you can hardly go wrong in this sector.  the base metal
is up 22% (URPTF) during the same period.  sensitivity on
stock -vs- metal is generally 2:1, so this is absolutely textbook.

this recent high for these stocks takes us back to the glory days
(the period between the election and valentine's day).  i am NOT
confident that URPTF will break it's old 2-year high of $3.75, but
it's possible.  it certainly has built a VERY firm base at $2.60, so
that is the downside risk on that one.

in any case, i find myself looking forward to another Winter rally
on this metal.  if this year follows pattern, i will gain about 10%
before end of year.  that would be nice, given the year i have
had. 

[djAdvocate]

tug of war between metals and equities today.

i call it a draw.  +0.1% (new record high).

[djAdvocate]

my stupid jewelry store stock is down 26% today.  if it weren't for that, i would be up a lot more.

+0.4%, new record high, mostly on the strength of uranium stocks.  i have some URPTF for sale at $3.50.  it is within pennies of strike.

edit: +.25%, new record high.  my jewelry stock ended up -30%.  no real fading elsewhere.  i was thinking of selling that thing last week.  should have followed my gut.

[djAdvocate]

ok, that was much better.  stupid jeweler was +3%, and the uraniums are still rallying.

dumped some URPTF at $3.56. 

+1.1%, new record high.  now up 24% for the year, and +30% in the last (12) months.  about 1/4 of my gain today was PLUUF, which has DOUBLED in the last month, is nearing a 3 1/2 year high.  totally on fire.

so weird.  i was +20% in Feb, then back to even a month or two later, but it has been a slowly building gain since then.  gold stabilized and started rising again.  and then copper started going up.  now it is uranium. 

i am hoping that i post a 30% gain this year.  that would be amazing on the back of last year's 80% gain.

[djAdvocate]

US Dollar rallied from a low of 86 to 90, but is falling again:

fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXM

hopefully this continues.  dollar is down 8% this year.  good for metals, and good for manufacturing exports, both of which are very large components in my overall investment(s). 

[djAdvocate]

i just realized this morning that mining shares (particularly gold) are a really good LEVERAGED DOLLAR HEDGE.

if you have a portfolio that is weak on exportable goods, and very tied to the domestic economy, it would behoove one to own some mining shares.  mining is about 2:1 leveraged against the metal itself.  in other words, a 1% rise in gold will typically result in a 2% rise in a gold mining company. 

the leverage is even BETTER among royalty shares, which have very low overhead compared to miners.  take RGLD, for example.  it is leveraged about 4:1 to the movement of gold (which in turn is -1 correlated to the dollar).  so, you can get a -400% dollar hedge by owning this USD denominated stock.

of course, if you are heavily invested in stocks which export a lot (like Caterpillar), or in foreign stocks, or in mining shares, then having this hedge is not terribly important.  it is only if you are heavily into consumer non-durables, restaurants, hospitality, healthcare, etc that you have to consider such things.

just a Thanksgiving thought.  

[djAdvocate]

quiet day.  my alarm rang this morning on my phone, and it only had 1% charge!  good job phone!

+0.1% on the strength of the uraniums.  not too much other movement.  crappy jeweler is down 2%.
URPTF is down, but a lot of the juniors are higher.  Bannerman is +7% this morning.

edit: the NYSE is closed, but the TSE is open, and the uraniums are still moving higher.  now +0.2%  this is kinda fun to watch.  it is extremely rare that one market is open like this and the other closed. 

edit2: finished +0.3%.  that was kinda fun to watch.  when the market closed, i was basically even, so all of that additional gain was from the pink sheets and TSE.  i love investing.      now sitting +4% from my September high, and +24% for the year.  BRING DECEMBER!!!!!

happy thanksgiving everyone! 

[verrip1]

A quiet day for equities too.  Positive but quiet with the expected low volumes.  S&P 500 above 2600 as I write.

No particular notice of this new S&P milestone number in the popular financial press.  I remember when hitting another 100 point level was a big deal.  Weeks ago when it hit 2500 that event also passed without much notoriety. 

Dowism has replaced daoism.

[djAdvocate]

uranium is sharply lower, and everything else is up.  even again today.

SORL is doing particularly well today (+9%), but i am nowhere near strike on it.
i don't even have sales orders outstanding. 

the downdraft in metals took me out today.  finished -0.4%

[djAdvocate]

pitiful gain.  less than 0.3%.  still below recent highs.  i did well during the mid-day pull back. 

[djAdvocate]

surprising gain today, +0.3%.  i say surprising because precious metals are -1.5%
that is typically a recipe for disaster for me.

nice little day.  +0.5%.  not quite a new high, but very close!!!!

[djAdvocate]

why are my international airlines doing so well?

ICAGY
RYAAY

[djAdvocate]

i am recommending AMY right here (AMYZF).  it is selling for 16 cents.  i think it is at 20 cents by Feb, and 30 sometime next year.  the lithium recycling operation is coming on line this quarter.

[verrip1]

Stopped out of SLV today.  A really bad week for silver.

Looked at GLD and decided it was time to sell it today, too.

[djAdvocate]

+0.2% again today, and still below last week's high. 

[djAdvocate]

Nov 30, 2017 0:16:01 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i am recommending AMY right here (AMYZF).  it is selling for 16 cents.  i think it is at 20 cents by Feb, and 30 sometime next year.  the lithium recycling operation is coming on line this quarter.

well, i said it would be 20 cents by Feb.  that turned out to be pretty conservative.

it is 20 cents THIS MORNING!!!!!

+0.7%, and a new record high. 

disclosure: i have 15% of my shares up for grabs at $0.207

edit: i got my strike!!!!  stock immediately turned and fell a penny. 

YTD recap: i am +23+%.  i was hoping for 30%, but i don't think that is realistic.  i am moving my target to +25%.

[djAdvocate]

and.....AMYZF is at 25 cents this morning!!!!!

i am +2%

six of my top eight gainers are uranium issues.
the other two are AMYZF and SORL.

amazing start to the day.  if it holds up, i will shatter my old highs.

NOTE: i unloaded another 10% of AMY at 25 cents.

edit: finished +2.00%
AMYZF finished at 27 cents!



hyooooge gains! 

[djAdvocate]

ok, as long as uranium continues to rally, i don't care about gold and silver! 

when 15% of your portfolio is up 15%, it covers a lot of bad.