metals, mining, and more......

[verrip1]

I'll just offer a 'my bad' for the lack of care I put into the wording of my last reply, dj.  My cash holdings were never in the vicinity of 50%, nor were they ever higher than 50%.  There were other poorly worded parts in that reply, but I'll just let them slide, cuz I don't think that anybody but me would care about the distinctions.

[djAdvocate]

this was a good week for mines and miners.

yesterday, my porfolio was +1.1% on a day where the general market was down over 1%- and this is with a 40% cash position.  keep in mind that not ALL of my equities are mining.  i have some select real estate, interest sensitives, and growth stocks.  but WAY over half of my equities are there, and they SOARED yesterday.

today wasn't nearly as good.  -0.6%.  but that is a full 2% above the market, and i am up for the week.

i wish i didn't suck at shorting.  i had a feeling about mid-day, when the DJIA was only -350......

[flow5]

Gold to the moon.  The $ to the bottom.

[djAdvocate]

gold +1.5% this morning, dollar dropping. 

[djAdvocate]

good week.  +0.7%
everything fell other than the metals.
some of them fell, too, actually.
but the ones that rose were up mightily.

[djAdvocate]

my confidence about the market softening is growing.

this looks like what i call "an orderly decline".  no panic...yet.  this pop is following pattern.  DJIA will top out between 24500 and 25000, and then continue falling.  the big test comes at 23000, where it tests the recent lows.

edit: i am not sure if 24446 was high enough or not.  but it might be.  dow is down 400, again. 

[djAdvocate]

yeah.  24446 was enough. 

gold +2%, DJIA -3% today

[djAdvocate]

i watched the last 10 minutes of trading today. it was very erratic. the DJIA couldn't decide whether to close -500 or -450. it finally ended about -460. this was much better than intersession when it was -700.

this is a very orderly decline. capitulation is still months away. the next big test is 23300 (which it hit today). this support level (if you believe in such things) extends all the way to last October.  today was the FOURTH test of that level, and it held again.  if it fails, the next support level is 21,500. 

i was up today.  but not much.  maybe 0.2%?  down market days drag down even good equities.

[djAdvocate]

oh, and yes, this is still a normal correction.  we are not even down 15% yet.  there were two similar declines during the Obama administration.  one was in 2011, and the other in 2015.  so, this is our once every four years decline, so far......

edit: we are still looking at a range of 24500 to 23300.  stuck there for now.  which way is it going to break?

edit: okay, make that 24600.  that is the number i was looking for earlier (24500-25000).

[djAdvocate]

last week was not very good.  this week was not very good either = +0.1%

gold is not behaving as well as i would like.  we really need to put on another 4-5% and break into new highs for the year to create some upward momentum for metal and miners.  and the way things are going here in the US, that should be well within the range of possibility.  dollar is still dropping, the jobs numbers just out sucked, and inflation is picking up.  all of that should be great for gold.

[djAdvocate]

another good week.

with war on the horizon, i suspect that gold will open sharply higher in 27 hours, but the markets are closed now.

[djAdvocate]

uranium is heating up

[djAdvocate]

recommending CSFFF at these prices (appx $1/share), on the following basis:

1) steadily rising earnings in the last (12) months.  it has gone from 3c/share to 9c/share over (4) quarters.
2) steady to rising copper prices in the last (12) months.  copper is -10% from it's peak, but CSFFF is -20%.
3) declining short term inventories of copper; anticipating declining long term inventories.  this will put further pressure on copper, which makes CSFFF attractive.

target: $3

disclosure: this is a top (5) holding for me, with an average purchase price of about 50 cents/share.

[verrip1]

Select emerging mkt and european stocks have kept me going through the US equity declines.  Newest holding is EWP.  Lots of stops on my US stock ETFs.  Fixed income CEFs still distributing very well, with market prices improving and NAVs good with sufficient UNII to cover distributions.  Fixed income OEFs are more problematic; for example I dumped all my PONDX earlier this year but I'm still holding on to OSTIX.  I had expected to see MLP ETFs improve with the increase in oil price, but the reaction has been muted, so they also have stops.

Still no direct holdings in PMs.  Have been looking to add to my very small qty LEDD, but no bites at my offers. yet.

[flow5]

The US is bankrupt. It is going to default

[verrip1]

Today, added 2% of portfolio to existing PCI holding in my income-focused account.

[djAdvocate]

i still have ONE interest heavy holding.  i can't remember the name of it right now, but when i remember, i will post it here.  it has been underperforming for a while, and just had a name change.  i think it is called Oxford Capital.

[verrip1]

I had no luck looking Oxford Capital up, as there are several companies with similar names in my Morningstar search.  I thought it might have been a REIT.

I have 1/2% in a leveraged REIT named Dynex Capital - DX.  It yields just a tad below 11%.  Its price had been rather steady in 2017 between 6.6 and 7.4, but took bottoms near 6.0 in early Feb, then again in early March.  I bit at 6.2 in March to at least hold thru the quarterly ex-div on Apr 3 (hoping then for some price improvement as well), but I may hold on thru eoy unless it hits my stop loss or rises to +/- 7.2.  EOY will be the absolute end for me, as it has cut the divvy every one of the last 5 years after the December payout.

[djAdvocate]

oxford square capital.  that's the name. 

i used to really like the REIT's.  i should probably get back into them again.  RWT is the only one i can remember.

[verrip1]

I had expected more from REITs this year.  I thought the separation of REITs into their own sector, away from financials as a whole, would lead to a growth spurt from 1) not being 'hidden' within what is an overall mega banking sector, and 2) getting more investment assets simply from the fact that it was in its own sector.  However, the pressure on them from the perception of the Fed rate increase policy seems to be a mitigating factor.

[djAdvocate]

it looks like the downtrend has been broken.  where US equities go from here is anyone's guess.

in addition, the dollar is rising and gold is following, so for the moment, metals and mining issues are under pressure (downward), and so i am HOLD on these, but not buy.  don't advise anyone to adopt a different perspective unless you are DCA'ing.

[djAdvocate]

a couple of the uraniums were popping today.

first of all, URPTF hit a 4 month high, +4.53% today

and then there was PLUUF, which soared 15% to a 2 month high at 56 cents

the latter was selling at near 20 cents last November.

[djAdvocate]

oh.  oxford capital is also doing really well.  it is nearing a 1 year high. 

[flow5]

The divergence between copper and oil is eerie.

[djAdvocate]

it's bugging the shit out of me.

[flow5]

Maybe a new paradigm? Supply side cuts worked?  China exceed demand expectations.  China became the world's biggest consumer in 2018.  Has new futures market.  Oil being priced in Yuan.

Oil isn't following core CPI or PCE.

[djAdvocate]

no, it isn't.  but China's demand for Copper is as high as Oil.

Cu production numbers are shitty, and inventory has plummeted in the last 2 months.

it really doesn't make sense.  copper should be banging out new highs.

instead it is sitting 10% below December.

[flow5]

The U.S. economy didn't bottom until mid-April.  Stocks won't bottom until the 31st.  We decelerated quite a bit.  But money velocity has now picked back up.

[djAdvocate]

Plateau (PLUUF) is going berzerk.  i think it is going to top out at $1CAD

[djAdvocate]

the dollar is up 5% since Jan, and seems to have broken the downtrend.

this is putting a lot of pressure on gold and other commodities.

wtf is going on?  i didn't anticipate this reversal.