metals, mining, and more......

[djAdvocate]

got smacked today.  not sure why.  it wasn't like Gold fell very much.  -0.8%.  crappy end to a good week.

[djAdvocate]

two of my mines were down 10% today: MUX and AGI.  given that fact, i was lucky to come out even.

i know that all of you probably did much better.  it was a very good day on Wall Street. 

[verrip1]

Hi dj.  It's been a while.

Been watching DBB.  Two different columns in the 9/2 Barron's had rather negative comments on 1) european based major miners who produce a lot of copper and 2) the near and intermediate term copper consumption in China.   They read more like guesswork than insight, but that's JMO.  DBB did have one especially bad day afterwards, but maybe that's why people take note of the 'Barron's Effect' on prices in the following week.  I'm holding DBB, but not particularly inclined to add to it right now.  I have added to SLV and GLD on short term price declines over last 30 days.

Midterm elections next year give me pause on the stock side, given the history of them.  I'm certainly not looking at pure shorts yet, but I have moved out of US stock index ETFs and into long/short funds (keeping momentum holdings).  In equities, I'm 22% foreign stock, 14% US stock, 9% real estate, 7% pure commodities.

The fairly useless financial media just can't get over their enchantment with DJIA numbers.  A 250 point Dow increase is no longer a big deal, and a 100 point change is a fairly flat day.  Not to mention that the performance of any 30 US stocks is pretty meaningless.  I suspect the last people in the world to realize that the DJIA is meaningless will be the financial media.  Talk about a sad state of affairs!

All in all, I've been more focused on that last bottle of 2007 Heitz 'Martha's Vineyard' Cab I've been holding on to. 

[djAdvocate]

i have a hunch that the blush is coming off this economy.  i like precious metals right now, but not enough to get highly leveraged into them.  my foreign holdings are quite high.  probably over 50%.  but i should check that.

i am really uncertain about the outlook on base metals.  a weak economy will do them in.  but i am not quite bearish, yet.  just neutral = no longer recommending.  in fact, i am starting to doubt that CSFFF will make it to $1.50.  i mean, it SHOULD- but golly.  this is a very unforgiving market.

what foreign countries do you like, verrip1, other than India?

[djAdvocate]

gold is still looking super bullish.  again, there is a resistance level at $1400, but if gold cracks it, there is no resistance all the way to $1800.  if you believe in such things. 

miners are picking up this morning.  i am +0.5%

[verrip1]

Have been adding to Chile and Poland.  Going to set a stop loss on INDA.  A developed Europe ETF is a hold for me.  Broad foreign (OAKIX) and emerging markets (AEMGX) stock funds continue strong performance. 

[djAdvocate]

copper is now down 5% from it's peak.  it seems like the markets are gearing up for a downturn.

but before i throw in the towel, i can add this:

1) global inventories of copper and zinc (the two most basic of base metals) are STILL DROPPING.
2) growth in the global economy is still growing.  slowly, but growing.

until i see changes in the above two, i am hold on this sector.

[djAdvocate]

pretty respectable day today.  interest sensitives fell pretty sharply, gold was higher, and the mining shares were up quite a bit.  also, some underperforming growth stocks did respectably well. 

+0.5%.  i am teetering on another high dating back to Feb.

note: i kinda forgot the Uranium rally that happened.  some of my Uraniums doubled or tripled between election and Feb, but have since gotten crushed.  and for good reason.  Uranium U308 is selling for $20/lb.  that is way below profitable for anyone that is doing any real mining.  exploration is crazy right now- too much cost.  this persistent depression in prices is going to drive a lot of seniors to the brink of disaster if it keeps up.  but it is good news for the industry- fuel is cheap, if that is the end of the market you are on.

note2: i would bet that if i backed the Uraniums out, i would be up.  most of the gold and silver stuff is up, as are the value/growth small caps i hold.  so, really it is just the persistent weakness in Uranium that is killing me.

[djAdvocate]

AMY is in the news again.  shares are +25% today, and nearly double the August low.

they are reporting that they have now successfully produce batteries from recovered metals.  they also had some interesting language about what this means to the company going forward.  they mentioned the value of the recyclables, which is the obvious thing, but they also made it sound as if they plan on making this their business: mining batteries.  i really think that they are going to do it.

it is a huge market.  but being the first into it is not going to guarantee that they don't get their asses kicked eventually.  it will, however, probably put a huge glow on the stock for a while. 

nevertheless, i have shares for sale at $0.22 and $0.30.  it will probably take a year, if not more, for their research to produce revenue.  no doubt they will need time to set up the process, and who knows if it will meet approval with the EPA, or the Canadian equivalent.

edit: AMY closed at nearly 19.5 cents, and accounted for 2/3 of my 0.7% gain today.  lovely.

edit2: ok, lads.  i am gone to Chicago, Columbus and Owensboro this next week.  have a great week!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Some things to consider. Looking at the 1yr chart, gold has resistance at $1350. Also, I know the media is freaking out about the FED reducing it's balance sheet, but what this actually means is the US debt will decrease as the FRB's treasures mature and profit is remitted.(good for the balance sheet at the very least) Mix that with the 3% growth that is currently tracking...

On the bright side, this could be a good trend for base metals over the short term; especially because China has ordered no market jitters before their 5yr congress.

Have a safe trip.

[djAdvocate]

ALERT!

HDSN fell to $8 today.  good buying opportunity.  i am predicting this thing is at $12 by YE.

just had to chime in.  had a couple of appts fall through today in sunny, hot Chicago!

happy Fall everyone.

[djAdvocate]

crappy week, but HDSN had a pretty hard floor at $8.  still recommend it at $8.22 this morning.

gold and base metals fell, dragging me down about 2.5% last week.

[djAdvocate]

i am liking the technicals on AMYZF right now.  i think 25 cents is a real possibility for it.

it is currently selling for around 14 cents.

there have been a number of favorable articles on Lithium lately (shortages).

[djAdvocate]

i have been wondering why the R2000 is doing so well (including today.  it was +2%).  it is making up for my golds getting crushed:

www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-set-to-open-higher-but-nike-nosedives-after-earnings-2017-09-27?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

i have been even this week so far.  my small cap values are rallying, and metals declining.

[djAdvocate]

CEF is +3.5% today.  look for MUX and CSFFF to follow suit.

[djAdvocate]

moving higher today.  about half my gain is from CSFFF, which is +6% today.

i am also recommending ICAGY.  after sitting between 14.5 and 16.5 for a good while, it appears to be moving higher again.  i anticipate this run ends up at 25 sometime next year.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Some interesting reading on metals and more.

Hard Assets In an Age of Negative Interest Rates

[djAdvocate]

was +0.6% today.  100% of it was attributable to SORL, which was up 18%. 

and now, i will read what Aman posted.

[djAdvocate]

both CSFFF and SORL up today, and carrying me higher, +0.6% again.

edit: metals crapped out on me today, and SORL lost almost all of it's morning gains.
finished just barely higher in a very bullish market.

Berkshire has been a real performer for me this last year, and is rising to a top 10 holding.

[djAdvocate]

increased my stake in AMYZF by 25% today.  i like this price (0.1556).  i expect it to retest the high for the year (0.27) within six months.  they are going into pilot production on the Lithium extraction process in about one month.  there should be a lot of favorable press during that time.  i put up most of the shares i bought today for sale at 0.2073

[djAdvocate]

everything is clicking this morning.  the portfolio is approaching a record high. 

[djAdvocate]

HDSN is getting clobbered on shockingly disappointing earnings.  i am down over 1% overall.

[djAdvocate]

i am recommending Aurico Metals today.  it is not because of anything i know.  it is just one of those stocks, like Radisson Mines (which i also recommend) that seems to blithely ignore market trends and is slowly creeping higher.  neither of these are major holdings for me- just little stocks that seem to perform well over time.

again: these are junior mines, so they have nothing to say on financials.  they just do their job well, and attract investment money.

[djAdvocate]

i can't recommend HDSN right now, so anyone that has it, i would say HOLD or SELL. 
the problem is not demand but pricing in refrigerants, which has fallen drastically for some reason.
undetermined what the outlook is, but as with most bulk commodities, if you can't price it right,
you can't produce at a profit.  so that is it for HDSN for now.

edit: i bought my shares at $3.50, and sold a bunch up at these levels, so, i am HOLD.

i sold 10% of my CEF this morning at $13.50
it is at an (11) month high, and had become "overweight" in my portfolio.

[djAdvocate]

still liking ICAGY.  current price = $16.50, target $23.

[djAdvocate]

CSFFF and SORL are again leading the way (after getting their heads bashed in).  i am +0.6%

[djAdvocate]

ICAGY is at a 21 month high this morning.  SORL is +8%

edit: ICAGY and SORL offset my losses today, and i finished even.
i have 25% of my shares of SORL up for sale at $6.23.  if tomorrow
is like today, that will be cash out.  i bought some on the recent
collapse to $4.  couldn't resist.  the PE ratio fell to 3.

[djAdvocate]

Oct 12, 2017 18:47:49 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i am recommending Aurico Metals today.  it is not because of anything i know.  it is just one of those stocks, like Radisson Mines (which i also recommend) that seems to blithely ignore market trends and is slowly creeping higher.  neither of these are major holdings for me- just little stocks that seem to perform well over time.

again: these are junior mines, so they have nothing to say on financials.  they just do their job well, and attract investment money.

ARCTF (Aurico) was up to $1.10 today.  i think it will be up again tomorrow, and break the high of $1.19 soon.

just fyi. 

[djAdvocate]

this was another pretty flat week.  my small cap values were up, my metals were down.

[verrip1]

I'm becoming wary about my GLD holding.  Per previous, I've bought increments on the dips and the rising peaks reinforced that plan.  Neither of the two October dips looked like buying opportunities, and I'm now questioning if it will exceed 127 this year.  The shallow lows it formed in October just do not engender confidence in me that there is a new bottom from which to expect skyrocketing.  I'll be looking at inflection points if it hits 124/125, but it would have to be above 130 for me not to sell some off at the next peak inflection.

SLV will go at the next peak inflection point, as it has underperformed GLD throughout the second half of this year.

On single country ETFs, I'm still strong on ECH (Chile) and EPOL (Poland), and have added EWQ (France) and EWT (Taiwan) in modest entries.  Watching EWZ (Brazil) for a dip entry point with its deep, yet long, cycles.  I'm all the way out of INDA (India), but it's performance the last couple of months has been good - I'm looking to buy back in a little, but certainly not at the current 52 week high. Tried EWI (Italy) for a while, but it did not meet expectations and I sold out.