metals, mining, and more......

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jun 5, 2017 17:57:58 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

can you translate to something less nerdy? 

... Intel has been caught flat footed. Now, to keep up, they are forcing customers to upgrade their motherboards. As soon as you do a price to power comparison, AMD pretty much crushes Intel.(Full details in the article posted)

The added bonus is that crypto mining is very GPU intensive, and AMD has become the choice there for the same power to energy consumption factor; and then AMD has a whole new line up of GPUs coming down the pipe.

Basically; the thredripper CPU mixed with four new graphics cards from AMD is a monster, comparable to entry level server racks... then there is the server models coming as well!!

I am becoming a huge fan of Lisa T. Su!!

[djAdvocate]

this is the first day where i have seen "normal sentiment" in the metals in at least 3 months.

metals are sharply higher this morning, and the equities are following.  AGI+6%, MUX up, etc.  this against a backdrop of a FALLING market.  this is what made me a ton of money last year.

now, mind you, this is only one day.  but like i say, metals have risen 10% in the last couple of months, and the equities are either DOWN or have gone nowhere, and that is NOT normal.  we'll see how long the sentiment i am seeing today persists.  it might not even last a day. 

[verrip1]

FSPTX (big tech), EPOL (Poland) and INDA (India).  

[djAdvocate]

i like India a lot.  thanks for that.

[djAdvocate]

7 month high for gold today. 

silver is lagging
copper is lagging more
uranium is lagging most

[djAdvocate]

gold is getting beat down, equities are up.  uraniums are higher today.

result = i am flat.  literally less than $100 change as of this post.

on the other side of the coin, my overall results are near a 3 month high.

[djAdvocate]

today was a pretty good day.

9 of my top 13 holdings were higher.  the most surprising one was BRKB, which rose in a down market.  the second most surprising was SORL, which fell 8% (and probably will result in me carrying a small loss today).

the reason i am writing is twofold.  first of all, the bullish sentiment i have noted in the gold and silver juniors has persisted this week, with MUX, AGI, and a couple of others consistently outperforming CEF.  this means that the money is starting to flow back into metals juniors after an exodus that went from mid-February to the first part of June. 

secondly, i am heading out on tour tomorrow, so i won't be near my computer.  i hope you guys all have a good end of spring.  enjoy this lovely weather.  kiss the wives and/or girlfriends and/or kids. 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Have a great time!

[djAdvocate]

USD is down 5% this year:

fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXB

we are now at a post-election low.  good for Gold, bad for equities.

[verrip1]

Made a 4 day chart of UDN ($US bear) vs. GLD vs. SLV.  Interesting.

Looks like a lot of correlation between them.  That ain't s'posed to be the way it works.

But, it is only a short term.  Still ........ 

[djAdvocate]

yeah, it really isn't. 

[djAdvocate]

ok, i am back from my trip!

looks like everything went poorly for me while i was gone.  boo!!!!

hahaha

ok, so, now i have some cash on hand, and am wondering if i should double up on these:

DNN, PLSDF

or buy some INDA!

DNN and PLSDF are in the dumps due to low commodity prices.

[djAdvocate]

i have two recommendations today: WPM and HDSN

disclosure: these are both major holdings for me.

HDSN you already know about, but i think it is really hitting stride now.  i expect it to break 10 within 90 days, probably a lot sooner.

WPM i have not said anything about before now.  they are a metals major.  i just think this company is particularly well run.  in the first quarter they made 19 cents/share.  i suspect that they will match that for the balance of the year, and end up at 80 cents for the year.  but mostly, this is a metals play.  if you don't think gold and silver are going higher, don't buy it.  otherwise, i expect this to go to $25 by YE.

[verrip1]

Jun 21, 2017 9:46:09 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

ok, i am back from my trip!

looks like everything went poorly for me while i was gone.  boo!!!!

hahaha

ok, so, now i have some cash on hand, and am wondering if i should double up on these:

DNN, PLSDF

or buy some INDA!

DNN and PLSDF are in the dumps due to low commodity prices.

I'm a fan of well selected single country ETFs, like INDA, but I already posted that.  There is volatility in these, so buying opportunities crop up not infrequently.  I've now got more foreign equities than US, but no miners except that damned PALAF. 

Also, I'm reducing broad based index ETFs in favor of outperformers like MTUM (momentum stocks) and GLFOX (global infrastructure) to have more active and less passive holdings; probably until the bull ends. 

[djAdvocate]

i like your thinking.

i still keep thinking that the market is way past due for a major correction.  but i have been saying that since BEFORE 2009 (which was not adequate, from my perspective).

if you think the cyclic bear is over, then broad investing is the best way forward.

is that what you believe, verrip1?

[verrip1]

Nope. 

I suspect (and what can any of us do beside suspect?) at least 2 more years of bull.  Unlikely to hold more than 4. 
1.  The yield curve is flattening monthly - but at a slow pace. 
2.  Inflation is under Fed goal. 
3.  U3 unemployment solid but not so much for U6. 
4.  Fed to retire bond portfolio more rapidly than was expected.
5.  Yellen pushing for Congress & Admin to institute stimulative fiscal policy after a number of years of no fiscal policy at all.  Still an opportunity for infrastructure bills and tax reform bills through EOY and next year. 
6.  Weakening dollar is good. 

The continuing length of this bull market is a data outlier, but data outliers occur all the time. 

I'm looking to be in the best niches for now, and ready for quick moves (to cash, Au/Ag and shorts from long equities) when things actually deteriorate.  I suspect that broad, passive investing will be hammered in the upcoming bear from massive redemptions of heavily owned S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 5000 and Russell 2000 funds of all sorts, which will deepen the bear.  I'm staying with the barbell approach to my bond fund durations, with some increases at the long duration end.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

ok, i am back from my trip!

Hope you had fun! Where was the tour??

I'm looking to be in the best niches for now

Check out PQE:TSE. They just started production..

[djAdvocate]

thanks for your insights. 

i am not very comfortable with "outlier" investing.  i guess nobody is.  i played the odds in 2000-2001 and won big.  i was basically 100% long on the market before then, and i went 100% cash over (12) months during that stretch, and completely missed the downturn.  that having been said, i screwed up the next cyclic bear market, and got crushed, losing 40% in less than a year.  that was my worst year ever, and a lesson well learned = you have to be nimble and take profits and losses where they present themselves.

i could have jumped out a year ago, and not spent the last (12) months going sideways, but that is where i am.  and yeah, that has been a bit frustrating, watching my 100% return in 6/2016 turn into 0% over the last year.  but at least i am not down during that stretch, right?

i am straddling right now.  i am still HEAVILY in metals and mining, and that would be a good place to be if the market gets it's teeth kicked in.  but i also have about 1/3 of my holdings in value stocks now.  i think i will just ride it out, and take profits where they come, and churn the value when the results (fundamentals) no longer match with the pricing.  i would rather just toss out that straddle for a new strategy, but the market is not telling me what to do, yet.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 21, 2017 17:18:30 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

ok, i am back from my trip!

Hope you had fun! Where was the tour??

I'm looking to be in the best niches for now

Check out PQE:TSE. They just started production..

i just made a quick week trip up to Oregon, playing small venues along the way.  made no money, but had fun.

[verrip1]

I don't view it as outlier investing; instead, I see it as accepting the reality of recent outlying data points for cyclical bear market length, and realizing that it is not beyond comprehension that even more such outlying data points may occur.  After all, no previous data trend contradicts new, real data points.

We now have an expanded paradigm for length of cyclical bulls in a secular bear, not an investing concept.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jun 19, 2017 13:01:29 GMT -5 verrip1 said:

Made a 4 day chart of UDN ($US bear) vs. GLD vs. SLV.  Interesting.

Looks like a lot of correlation between them.  That ain't s'posed to be the way it works.

But, it is only a short term.  Still ........ 

Have you been keeping this data up to date?? I have been thinking about it, and I have to wonder how much crypto currency is sucking the life out of silver and gold as a hedge. I mean, the gold bugs seem to really like crypto currency by the looks of gold sights out there.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 21, 2017 19:41:19 GMT -5 verrip1 said:

I don't view it as outlier investing; instead, I see it as accepting the reality of recent outlying data points for cyclical bear market length, and realizing that it is not beyond comprehension that even more such outlying data points may occur.  After all, no previous data trend contradicts new, real data points.

We now have an expanded paradigm for length of cyclical bulls in a secular bear, not an investing concept.

this is a really lucid reply, verrip.  thanks.  i understand completely, and i agree.

i guess what i was saying is that i work better from a known template. 

[verrip1]

Without doubt, the market will decide when the bull is over and the bear begins.

May we all be ready!

[djAdvocate]

good movement in URPTF recently- it is at a 2 month high.

the uranium juniors should "follow".

[djAdvocate]

Jun 13, 2017 11:11:30 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

USD is down 5% this year:

fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXB

we are now at a post-election low.  good for Gold, bad for equities.

9 month low, now.  dates back to October 4th, 2016.

we are probably heading for a retest of 118.  should happen sometime this year.

edit: if the dollar moves to 121, it will mark the worst decline since 2011.

[djAdvocate]

CSFFF is popping.  up 12% today.  i ran out of cash, or i would have got more at 60 cents.

[djAdvocate]

HDSN & SORL are both popping today.

the difference is that HDSN is sitting at a record high of $9.20
it's going higher.  see previous posts for details. 

nothing else is really moving, though CSFFF is now up 20% from it's lows.

[djAdvocate]

wow.  that was an interesting day.

the morning started out with gold lower, and my stocks were higher, then, as the day wore on, my stocks went lower and lower, and gold was up.  then, right at the close, gold fell sharply, and stocks went back up.  net result was that i ended up basically unchanged- which is something of an achievement, given that the Russell2000 (the index that i try to benchmark) was -1.4%

anyone have anything good today?  SORL was +10%, HDSN will be lucky to hang on to ANY gain.

edit: i have shares of HDSN for sale at $9.41  it is at $9.21 this morning.  SORL is up another 5% today.
2nd edit: HDSN hit $9.39.  LOL.  i want my 2 cents worth!!! 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I am close to dumping my AMD position and putting the original investment into PQE. AMD is taking market share from Intel according to benchmark tests, and their top end GPUs are stronger then Nvidia's... But, they have tons of work ahead and I'd rather use the profits from the pick to build a new rig to make some ka$h crypto mining, and then building an algorithmic trading platform.

[djAdvocate]

this is such a strange day.  almost everything i own is down except:

ARNA +43%
CSFFF +10%

the net result is that i am up less than 1%, but that is enough to set a four month high.  i am now flirting with a record high (less than 1% to go), this despite the decline in gold lately.

very strange year.

edit: ARNA +41%, CSFFF +15%.  CSFFF is a much larger holding for me, so i finished +1.1% today.  i am now sitting on a high which dates back to February (which, if you will recall, was the month that i was crowing about being up 20% for the year, before losing it all).  still have not sold the HDSN.  trade never executed.  trying to figure out what to do with ARNA.  these pharmas tend to whiplash, but this is an EARLY announcement, so i might hold it and go for the ride.