metals, mining, and more......

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

May 19, 2017 22:46:29 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

May 19, 2017 22:06:45 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

The way I understand his career, yes.

Further, my friend Frank said late last year that the DNC leaks came from within. It would appear the media has stepped in it again!

if Muller is someone we can rely on, then we needn't speculate.  that was the reason i asked. 

I hear ya. Just wanted to give ya a bit of inside information.

[djAdvocate]

May 19, 2017 23:21:45 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

May 19, 2017 22:46:29 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

if Muller is someone we can rely on, then we needn't speculate.  that was the reason i asked. 

I hear ya. Just wanted to give ya a bit of inside information.

thanks!  i am doing my best to ignore it.  as you have probably noticed, i my posting over at politics went from 1000 per month in the four years leading up to the election to less than 100 per month since then, and less than 10 in the last week (and probably zero, going forward).  i simply don't care any more.

what i DO care about is how this impacts gold and silver. 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

i simply don't care any more.

Welcome to the party!! The Kman and I have talked for years that the left, right paradigm has divided us.(worst yet is how centrist most people are) IMO, the Profit Samuel had it right all those years ago...

Gold and more: I would say there is going to be some serious volatility until the matter is "settled". Keeping in mind that rates probably aren't going to move much more this year. The slow and steady economy is still kicking; and lots of deals have been signed.

[verrip1]

That Politics board has all the insight of Giants and Dodgers fans pissed at a bar after a controversial game.  They have to have a nurse as mod over there to deal with the patella damage from all that knee jerking.


But there are insights out there on economic outlook that won't drain IQ points while reading.  Here's one from this month's Global Outlook by Std Life:

www.standardlifeinvestments.com/exported/pdf/GS_Monthly_Outlook/GS_Monthly_Outlook_M05_17.pdf

The flattening yield curve discussion expands on one of Minerd's points from my recent Guggenheim link. 

[djAdvocate]

thanks, guys.  that made me feel a lot better about my decision to bail. 

[djAdvocate]

SORL is over $8 this morning. 

edit: i sold another 20% at $9.01* a few minutes ago.
this thing is utterly on fire.

*i put in my sell at $8.95, and i got $9.01 for them.  what an amazing day.

[djAdvocate]

if not for SORL, i would have had kind of an average day.  however, because it is my #2 holding, and because it was up ANOTHER 25% TODAY, i finished +2%

the unfortunate thing is that many of my miners trade on the CSE, and therefore, didn't see any action today (it is Victoria Day).  provided that Gold and Silver hold on to their gains from today, that should make for a rather nice tomorrow, however.

NOTE: since this seems a lot like boasting, i should point out that since February, i lost ALL of my gains this year.  i was up 20% on Valentines Day- but by May 4th, i was either back to nil, or slightly lower.  since May 4th, however, i am +8%.  so, this year is kinda panning out to be average so far, taken as a whole, but it has been a very interesting ride getting there.

edit: i just checked, and i was down on May 4th.  my YTD is +6.96%*, so i am well below average now.

how is everyone else doing?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

We are having a good year so far. Of course we are pretty conservative with our beta. Can't give you an exact % number because I'm​ not exactly sure ATM; but I love my dividends!! Have to check, but I'm pretty sure our dividend holdings across the board had raises this past quarter!

Some interesting information on mining: Today's most productive energy workers are in coal and gas

[verrip1]

5.09% as of yesterday's close, not adjusted for withdrawals.  Had I not a tendency towards Epictetian stoicism, I'd be ecstatic .

[djAdvocate]

for those of you that like off axis investments, check this one out:

www.ftportfolios.com/retail/etf/ETFsummary.aspx?Ticker=FIW

disclosure: this is 6% of of my portfolio.

[verrip1]

Wow!  It sure has outperformed PHO since late last year. 

[verrip1]

Several bright points for me today.  The brightest is the Genon Escrow Corp's 9.875 of 2020 (CCC and callable next month), up over 7% to $78.50 as of this writing.  It had been languishing in the low $60s recently.  There's talk of a debt restructuring for their earlier maturities this year and next.  This one has been a real roller coaster for me as I bought before the acquisition of Genon's physical assets (but not bond indebtedness) by NRG.  Price then was in the $70s, giving me a YTM in the teens.  Post acquisition the price went above par for some time, before dropping to the recent $60s.  Frankly, I was worried about default, so this upward move eased some trepidation.  News indicates the restructuring will only be for the earlier maturing unsecured debt, so there must be something in the wind about the later maturity of this one - if it's a call, then it's Bob's your uncle!

Also Brazil ETF up 2% and Poland and Chile ETFs each up about 1%.  Fixed income CEFs a mixed bag, but my riskiest is +. 

A good day for me while US stocks languish.

[djAdvocate]

hey guys, i need some advice.

i own a bit of Signet Jewlers (SIG).  it is a medium sized holding for me.

pretty much since the day i bought it, it has gotten clobbered.  i am now down 1/3 on my initial investment.  i am trying to figure out whether to bail or double down. 

here are my competing factors:

1) i don't generally like retail, so this stock was a bit out of my comfort zone to start with.
2) others in this sector are also getting clobbered, so there is a lot of bearish sentiment.
3) it appears to be a bargain here, and i rarely bail on a stock this quickly.

NOTE: i won't hold you responsible for your advice- i am just asking what YOU would do.  RSVP.  i should either fish or cut bait on this one.

[verrip1]

May 24, 2017 19:26:22 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

hey guys, i need some advice.

i own a bit of Signet Jewlers (SIG).  it is a medium sized holding for me.

pretty much since the day i bought it, it has gotten clobbered.  i am now down 1/3 on my initial investment.  i am trying to figure out whether to bail or double down. 

here are my competing factors:

1) i don't generally like retail, so this stock was a bit out of my comfort zone to start with.
2) others in this sector are also getting clobbered, so there is a lot of bearish sentiment.
3) it appears to be a bargain here, and i rarely bail on a stock this quickly.

NOTE: i won't hold you responsible for your advice- i am just asking what YOU would do.  RSVP.  i should either fish or cut bait on this one.

What I would do?  Probably make a mistake and refuse to seriously consider that I picked wrong, holding on until the damn thing hits the pinks.  And afterwards hoping for deitic influence.  For years .....

[... (S)He hasn't intervened yet ...   PALAF, COHG, LINE]

eta - thornburg mortgage. 

[djAdvocate]

HAHAHAHA.  i own some Paladin! 

yeah, man.  i tend to wait too long.
i persist until the fundamentals are gone.
and once that happens, well, the value is shot.

anyone else?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It looks like the shopping mall is only part of the issue with SIG dj. The class action lawsuit is going to be a MAJOR problem, have you seen this? finance.yahoo.com/news/shareholder-alert-faruqi-faruqi-llp-221100157.html

Class action on top of class action.....

Due to their size, business and EPS they will probably make it through this; but it would appear to be very rough water ahead. As a related aside; I had been chatting with Bimetal on email about this topic this past week: Struggling Luxury-Asset Market

[djAdvocate]

that court case looks like a fishing expedition to me.  the case was settled privately.  the cost of the reaction is the cost of investing, imo.  this sort of class action rarely survives scrutiny.  investors react to all sorts of stuff- much of it is utterly immaterial.

one thing i forgot to look at is institutional investment in this stock.  that is something that i try to avoid, whenever possible.  herd mentality is dangerous in these situations.

edit: the luxury asset market article was very interesting to me.  thanks for posting!

[verrip1]

May 25, 2017 0:33:27 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

that court case looks like a fishing expedition to me.  the case was settled privately.  the cost of the reaction is the cost of investing, imo.  this sort of class action rarely survives scrutiny.  investors react to all sorts of stuff- much of it is utterly immaterial.

one thing i forgot to look at is institutional investment in this stock.  that is something that i try to avoid, whenever possible.  herd mentality is dangerous in these situations.

edit: the luxury asset market article was very interesting to me.  thanks for posting!

When I'm buying individual junk bonds, I often look at institutional holdings and whether they are buying more, selling some or holding.  However I limit the data collection to multi-asset and unconstrained funds I like.  Only led me wrong once, and even with that, the institutions stepped in to protect the bond side of the defaulter and got actively involved to get bondholders a piece of the reorganized company.

[You know, I'm still seething over the disaster of the GM bankruptcy/buyout as it related to bondholders.  I had gotten out the Smartnotes way before, but the government's action to put even secured bondholders at the same priority level as equity holders was a horrific idea - one that seriously undermined the whole of the corporate bond market by overcoming the history of controlling the risk premium of bonds' lower return rates.  This idea seems to have caught on with some bankruptcy judges since then, as well.  Stupid, stupid, stupid.  It is marginalizing bondholders and undermining the lack of correlation between bonds and equities.]

[verrip1]

Bought back into some NAC (CA muni bond CEF).  I sold it last summer when its market price fell below the NAV price and it stopped appreciating so quickly.  The market price took it in the shorts through the fall and winter.  Now, it is back selling at a 5.6% discount and yielding 5.58%, with a nice, slow, upward price movement.

When I sold NAC last summer I replaced it with PCI (a leveraged and heavily hedged fixed income CEF).  But PCI is now selling at an unusual premium with market price movement uncertain.  After it recovers from the price drop after distribution (but way before the Fed meeting on the 13th) I'll sell PCI in this non-retirement account to buy more NAC just after the Fed does whatever it does (I give greater likelihood of another rise to the overnight).  PCI gives me more net income than NAC after taxes, but I expect that the chance of a PCI price drop to its usual significant discount will net me out positive for at least a year.   I do give up the much lower duration of PCI over NAC, but I've overcome concern over another taper tantrum , and expect just a moderate day or two dip from upcoming Fed announcement.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

You think GM should have been "allowed" to fail, V? I mean, do you think the reason that bond and equity holders were put on the same level was due to the poor state of GM financial?

Also, I have a feeling we won't see much in the way of rate increases until the end of the year.

[djAdvocate]

interest rates should certainly be no higher than GDP growth, which is what?  1.2%?

[verrip1]

May 28, 2017 10:40:06 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

You think GM should have been "allowed" to fail, V? I mean, do you think the reason that bond and equity holders were put on the same level was due to the poor state of GM financial?

Also, I have a feeling we won't see much in the way of rate increases until the end of the year.

Not at all.  I don't believe it it was any kind of a financial decision.  IMO, it was a societal-based decision by the Administration staff to change the bankruptcy system to allocate more of the residual value of GM to stakeholders such as retirees to the detriment of normally partially-protected bondholders.    In fact, I believe the status of GM Financial at the time was still cash flow positive, and it was a spinoff contender.

When the Administration entered into and then controlled the GM bankruptcy, it was internally decided that they would not follow the long held priority to partial recovery of senior secured notes, then down the line to other notes, and generally leaving mostly the equity holders absolutely nothing.  The Administration sometime decided that the GM pensioners should be a protected class, and fucked the bondholders out of whatever rightful partial recovery would be due them in bankruptcy court tradition.

Oh.  And on 'allowed to fail'.  Failure has to be acknowledged and accepted.  Government interference to assist favored companies from bankruptcy weakens the economy.  In bankruptcy, there are still net assets.  Those assets will be put to work in the economy: people, properties, capital equipment, patents, as the bankruptcy happens.  I despised the AIG bailout just as much as the GM - probably more because I distrusted AIG from business experience with them (no, not a disgruntled insured) and had held GM bonds in favorable times.

I have a different view on Fed rate hikes.  I'd put the over/under at about +0.75 with what I see YTD.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Interesting. So, you're saying that because of pensions GM turned into a social issue? You think because of the size of work force was the underlying thought?

I can see where you're saying the same could be said for AIG, however, if AIG would have went the way of the dodo; to quote Wall Street 2; "it's the end of the world...."

My thoughts on rates for this year come down to GDP now read out. They jumped the gun with this last one and would have probably been okay to rase them now; but because they already have, and the first Q was predictably weak, they will have to wait to see Q3 initial print to ensure growth is still steady.

[djAdvocate]

terrible opening, but SORL is holding me up- approaching $10.  it might become my #1 holding today.  +10%

edit: i am raising my target to $12.50 on this.  i doubt it has much more in it than that, however.  this stock has already tripled in the last year.

edit2: i just realized that RyanAir (RYAAY) is up 40% in three months.  wish i had bought more of that.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

V, I have been thinking about our interest rate conversation. Even though the economic numbers have been coming in soft as I had anticipated; I'm leaning more towards your camp that we'll see another hike in June. It's pretty much baked into the market already, and housing prices could use a bit more dampening. As for the rest of the year it will probably come down to; "They jumped the gun with this last one (in June). and would have probably been okay to rase them now; but Because (of this) they already have, and the first Q was predictably weak, they will have to wait to see Q3 initial print to ensure growth is still steady, and we might see one more in December.

[verrip1]

Per reply #258, sold PCI in taxable account on the up day from distribution.  Setting up a fairly low limit buy of NAC for 1/4 of targeted shares.  Now is the time to sit and watch.

[djAdvocate]

this market is starting to piss me off.  the metals equities are down, and nothing else seems to be moving.

anyone want to report anything else?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

anyone want to report anything else?

IA64 better lookout! x86 is bringing the pain; and it's the choice of this new virtual mining that's out there.

AMD's Threadripper Will Crush Intel's Latest Offering

[djAdvocate]

can you translate to something less nerdy? 

[djAdvocate]

HDSN is on the move again.  i need to set another strike somewhere around $10.