metals, mining, and more......

[djAdvocate]

CSFFF is going nuts.  +9% today.  now sitting on a 4 month high.  however, i doubt i will break my Feb high.  a lot of other stocks would have to join the party.  i lost 5% in the latter half of Feb. 

edit: this is a lot different than yesterday.  everything is roughly higher.  HDSN set another record high today, but fell one cent short of my strike.  it seems like it will push higher, tho.  and my pharma stock is down.  booo!

edit: LAD is now also running.  +9%

[djAdvocate]

put in a sell for another 10% of my shares of HDSN at $9.61,
my 5% sale at $9.41 executed this morning.

nothing else is looking all that great other than CSFFF, which is almost up 50% in less than a month.

guess i should have sold ARNA.  it is down another 10% today.  oh well.

[djAdvocate]

gold is popping.  should be a good day! 

good day, but not as good as i hoped.  +0.6%

most of the gain was AMYZF and TRX.

verrip1 : i picked up some INDA today.  thanks.  i like that holding.

gentlemen: have a good weekend.  i am heading to NYC on Monday,
so i probably won't be back on line until THURSDAY.

i finished at a four month high this week.  friday the 14th was my best close since March 1st.  as i mentioned before, it is going to take some effort to push up from here.  i lost 5% in the second half of Feb, this year.  it will probably take MONTHS to gain it back.  i would be pretty happy to end the year with the gain i had at week 6.  then again, i have gained over 7% since June 21st, so who knows?

[djAdvocate]

3 of my top 7 holdings were down over 3% today.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

hahaha.

so, how was everyone's week?  anything good to share?

edit: i hit another (4) month high yesterday.  so, today was bad, but the last few days weren't.

[djAdvocate]

CSFFF hit 99 cents today.  sold 10% of my shares at $0.92

[djAdvocate]

base metals are doing really well.  anyone jump on that ETF?

edit: "that ETF" is DBB.  it is up 50% in the last (18) months.

edit2: nice pop today in precious metals and seniors.  CEF was +2%, and a LOT of the golds were +5% today.

overall, i was +0.7%, now sitting on a FIVE month high. 

[djAdvocate]

OOH!  i just noticed this!

fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXB

USD just hit a 15 month low!  man, this is so good for gold!!!!  LOVE IT! 

[verrip1]

A lowered USD from its former lofty heights is also favorable to the US stock market by improving overseas sales.  If gold and US stocks correlate, it kind of messes with my diversification plan. 

A question: which asset subclasses are most uncorrellated to both US stocks and gold?

[djAdvocate]

Jul 27, 2017 12:15:33 GMT -5 verrip1 said:

A lowered USD from its former lofty heights is also favorable to the US stock market by improving overseas sales.  If gold and US stocks correlate, it kind of messes with my diversification plan. 

A question: which asset subclasses are most uncorrellated to both US stocks and gold?

that is the question i have been asking since 2003.  please let me know if you figure it out! 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

[djAdvocate]

omfg.  +1.8% today.

precious and base metals were higher.
but what did it for me was my growth stocks.
LAD was +7%
BOFI was +7%
SORL was +3%
HF was +5%

just an outstanding day all the way up and down.
market sucked today, so i am really happy.
new (5) month high.

[verrip1]

Jul 27, 2017 22:47:10 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 27, 2017 12:15:33 GMT -5 verrip1 said:

A lowered USD from its former lofty heights is also favorable to the US stock market by improving overseas sales.  If gold and US stocks correlate, it kind of messes with my diversification plan. 

A question: which asset subclasses are most uncorrellated to both US stocks and gold?

that is the question i have been asking since 2003.  please let me know if you figure it out! 

Huffman hasn't found it, and he's been looking for decades and my Permanent Portfolio seems lacking in things new since the 1980s through 90s when I followed Harry Browne, including into the poll booths.  [Sat at same 2 person cafe lunch table with him at a Money Conference in SF where he was speaking a couple of decades ago - he told me not to talk to him after I told him I knew who he was, as he ate one of the world's most Spartan brown bag lunches evah from his briefcase.]

I've been in foreign RE for this purpose, and other purposes, for quite some time.  But it isn't really satisfactory as a pure contrarian play with it's alpha characteristics.  And rather limited good choices of funds.  If I have to go for blind research, I'll probably look at midstream US MLPs (though I got royally uckfayed on one a while back), UK infrastructure, Asia minor country funds, and maybe even Mexico again.  Somethings will hit, so it's a matter of what I watch to see the trend against SP500/Au.  Though I'll probably do it to see what pops out, I have significant fundamental problems with using coincidence as a significant diversification strategy.

Shit.  I guess nothing worthwhile comes easy, eh? 

[djAdvocate]

truer words were never spoken.

[djAdvocate]

just increased my holdings in SSW this morning by 40%.

i have been thinking of buying more for a while, but i was waiting for "capitulation".  it appears to have taken place at $5. 

this company had a huge write off a year ago, but the overall trend is good.  sales have been up year after year, and without the extraordinary writeoff, the profits would be just fine.  this might be a $20 stock in a year or two.  i am counting on it going to at least $10, at which point i would sell the shares that i just picked up.

[verrip1]

I must be doing something right, for now at least.

Did my month end analysis.  YTD investment return 10.14%, of which 2.64% was in July alone.  With a 2.54% YTD withdrawal, that's a 7.62% YTD net portfolio gain. 

Foreign stocks, US momentum stocks, and hedged income CEFs were the primary sources of the gains.  Withdrawal was all from income distributed, so all stock distributions could be reinvested.  On metals, I've done well with DBB, moderately well with LEDD, happier with the sawtooth of GLD than of SLV. 

eta - Just sold BPTRX and TOT.  Will replace TOT with AMLP and some (gulp!) AMZA.  Will replace BPTRX with half to more AKREX and a quarter each to more INDA and IGR.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

When I read AMZA I initially processed it as Amazon and thought; man, I know Verrip has guts, but wow! Just for some shits and giggles.

-Amazon is the New Tech Crash
-Amazon has made half the profits of Macy’s over the past 20 years

[verrip1]

LOL, Aman.  Most everybody with investments already owns some Amazon.  It's in the SP500 idx, Russell 5000 idx, NASDAQ 100 idx and any broad tech fund.  So, it's never really a matter of 'do I own Amazon', it's just a matter of 'HOW MUCH Amazon do I own'.  Same is true for Tesla, which looks to me like a wreck waiting to happen when people finally open their eyes and realize that it is just 'the stuff that dreams are made of' ala The Maltese Falcon - my guess is that the Elon Musk factor is about half the market price.

[verrip1]

Oh, if you want to see why I wrote the "(gulp!)" before AMZA, note that it's distribution is about 23%, and it's volatility reflects that.  I don't do much of that high distribution stuff any more because too many up and down holdings give me the twitches.  But since I'm still positive about oil as a commodity, I'll get into it slowly and watchfully.

[djAdvocate]

USD fell 1% today, and is now down 9.3% this year.

it has major support at 87.5 dating back to January of 2015.  if it breaches that, look out below.

this is probably quite good for gold.  but it will be VERY good for gold if the dollar loses another 1%, and i think that is incredibly likely.  the trend for the dollar is absolutely abysmal.

in our last marketing meeting, i emphasized that we need to start marketing to Europe, Asia, and Canada.  the marketing group pushed back that we should focus on the US.  i explained that was our only option under Obama, but this Trump administration is changing that by taking a wrecking ball to the dollar. 

you could have heard a pin drop. 

i'm retiring in January.  25 years of this bullshit is enough for me.

[djAdvocate]

this has been a rocky week, but i am sitting on a 5 month high again this morning.  still trying to overcome my February tumble. 

my runners are AGI and BNNLF today.

read an interesting interesting article this morning at Marketwatch.  here was the statement that caught my eye:

According to Goldman Sachs, “dollar weakness contributed to a 14% rise in earnings per share during [the first quarter], the highest pace of growth since 2011.” The second-quarter reporting season is still ongoing, but whereas the U.S. dollar index fell 1.6% over the first quarter, it dropped 4.9% over the second, suggesting the earnings boost could be larger.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Aug 2, 2017 14:28:54 GMT -5 verrip1 said:

LOL, Aman.  Most everybody with investments already owns some Amazon.  It's in the SP500 idx, Russell 5000 idx, NASDAQ 100 idx and any broad tech fund.  So, it's never really a matter of 'do I own Amazon', it's just a matter of 'HOW MUCH Amazon do I own'.  Same is true for Tesla, which looks to me like a wreck waiting to happen when people finally open their eyes and realize that it is just 'the stuff that dreams are made of' ala The Maltese Falcon - my guess is that the Elon Musk factor is about half the market price.

Good point on the idx; nothing like being able to blend(Hegde) out the bad with the good... All I think about when I hear tsla now is; "chestnuts roasting on an open fire".... Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market. With all the ppl who have left Tesla these past months, I would peg the Musk factor higher than the 50%, total fanboyism; reminds me of Jobs. At least in the case of Apple, Jobs created a money maker that attracted talent... Since his passing proves how much Apple needed him.

I think you've made a good choice wading into oil, won't be going anywhere soon that's for sure. I have my eye on PQE.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Aug 3, 2017 10:51:47 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

this has been a rocky week, but i am sitting on a 5 month high again this morning.  still trying to overcome my February tumble. 

my runners are AGI and BNNLF today.

read an interesting interesting article this morning at Marketwatch.  here was the statement that caught my eye:

According to Goldman Sachs, “dollar weakness contributed to a 14% rise in earnings per share during [the first quarter], the highest pace of growth since 2011.” The second-quarter reporting season is still ongoing, but whereas the U.S. dollar index fell 1.6% over the first quarter, it dropped 4.9% over the second, suggesting the earnings boost could be larger.

So, what you're saying is that even though Verrip and myself have been explaining how a weaker dollar is good for the economy and the markets, you have been parading around saying that the dollar weakness shows how poor of a job President Trump has been doing... And now it turns out the weaker dollar is good for the economy and the markets?

[djAdvocate]

that's actually not what the article says, i don't believe.

it says that it is responsible for lifting profits for multinationals.

if by "the economy" you mean "the profits of multinationals", then sure. 

if by "the economy" you mean the investor class like us, then maybe.  ultimately, the weak dollar is inflationary.  that will drive up metals and commodity prices, which will limit the purchasing ability of average Americans.

if you read all the way through, it also says that it limits US GDP, which ultimately is bad for us.

so, no, i don't think that your statement about it being "good for the economy and markets" is true, but please, if you read it differently, explain why.

PS- i don't remember you or Verrip making this point before, so i could also take your remark as sarcastic, if you would prefer. 

[djAdvocate]

Aug 4, 2017 12:00:36 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

you have been parading around saying that the dollar weakness shows how poor of a job President Trump has been doing...

1) i don't "parade around".  i believe i have precisely ONE thread on this subject on another board which i prefer to not even mention, let alone DISCUSS here, as i have mentioned before.  if you can't see that the tone of that thread is sarcastic, and designed to be amusing, then you should probably just stick to my posts here.

2) i would prefer that we leave presidents out of this discussion, and focus strictly on the facts as you see them.  i have long believed that the currency of a country is a good indication of it's economic health:

AGREE or
DISAGREE?

lastly, i think i have been very respectful here to you and everyone else.  i would like it to remain that way.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Dj- post #307 for verrip talking about profits from sales.. AKA more business, AKA more GDP. Correct that I haven't talked about the lower dollar being good for manufacturing on this thread. More manufacturing means more GDP, good for the economy. Lower dollar means oil is more affordable for overseas customers, which has become a thing these past few months. More oil sales, means more GDP. So, no sarcasm at all. Plus, add in what you're talking about IRT higher net worth individuals having more money...to spend.. more GDP.

Commodity prices have been tied to growth in China and India more than the dollar for a long time. While gold prices have tanked, not because of a higher dollar, but because the hedge against the end of the dollar doom and gloom was wrong. It's funny, there used to be a group around here that said gold was high because the dollar is way down.

I will continue to discuss things as I seem them, agreed.

[djAdvocate]

Aug 4, 2017 18:17:18 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Dj- post #307 for verrip talking about profits from sales.. AKA more business, AKA more GDP. Correct that I haven't talked about the lower dollar being good for manufacturing on this thread. More manufacturing means more GDP, good for the economy. Lower dollar means oil is more affordable for overseas customers, which has become a thing these past few months. More oil sales, means more GDP. So, no sarcasm at all. Plus, add in what you're talking about IRT higher net worth individuals having more money...to spend.. more GDP.

Commodity prices have been tied to growth in China and India more than the dollar for a long time. While gold prices have tanked, not because of a higher dollar, but because the hedge against the end of the dollar doom and gloom was wrong. It's funny, there used to be a group around here that said gold was high because the dollar is way down.

I will continue to discuss things as I seem them, agreed.

that sounds like a "disagree".

ok, let's do a thought experiment.  what happens if the dollar falls 90%?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Aug 4, 2017 18:19:08 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Aug 4, 2017 18:17:18 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Dj- post #307 for verrip talking about profits from sales.. AKA more business, AKA more GDP. Correct that I haven't talked about the lower dollar being good for manufacturing on this thread. More manufacturing means more GDP, good for the economy. Lower dollar means oil is more affordable for overseas customers, which has become a thing these past few months. More oil sales, means more GDP. So, no sarcasm at all. Plus, add in what you're talking about IRT higher net worth individuals having more money...to spend.. more GDP.

Commodity prices have been tied to growth in China and India more than the dollar for a long time. While gold prices have tanked, not because of a higher dollar, but because the hedge against the end of the dollar doom and gloom was wrong. It's funny, there used to be a group around here that said gold was high because the dollar is way down.

I will continue to discuss things as I seem them, agreed.

that sounds like a "disagree".

ok, let's do a thought experiment.  what happens if the dollar falls 90%?

That wasn't a disagree. That was a; if you want me to ignore that you are posting "to be sarcastic" in the same vein elsewhere as you are here, that's fine with me. That was a; I have have heard the buy gold because it's the end of the USD/The President is destroying the country for years, and at that time gold was around $2k. At that time people lost out, and those posters no longer post around here.

What I do know is that for like 25 years gold was around $300 an OZ, and when the shit hit the fan in 2008, margin calls hit the price of gold just like everything else because the majority of the market is on paper.

Honestly, IMO, if the value of the dollar drops 90% it will be because there is a new global currency issued by a global central bank..

But, in reality; China is forcing the sale of the Astoria, and has been found out to be major economic manipulators. Europe's banking system is still a heap of garbage, Europe is being overwhelmed by refugees and terrorism, and the Mujahideen has opened a new front in SE Asia while the Balkans continues to radicalize, etc, etc.(this war is going global)

So, maybe a better thought experiment would be; what if the USD was the only game in town??

[djAdvocate]

Aug 4, 2017 19:09:42 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Aug 4, 2017 18:19:08 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

that sounds like a "disagree".

ok, let's do a thought experiment.  what happens if the dollar falls 90%?

That wasn't a disagree.

sorry.  i read it differently than you meant it.

That was a; if you want me to ignore that you are posting "to be sarcastic" in the same vein elsewhere as you are here, that's fine with me. That was a; I have have heard the buy gold because it's the end of the USD/The President is destroying the country for years, and at that time gold was around $2k. At that time people lost out, and those posters no longer post around here.

interesting.  just out of curiosity, when was that?

What I do know is that for like 25 years gold was around $300 an OZ, and when the shit hit the fan in 2008, margin calls hit the price of gold just like everything else because the majority of the market is on paper.

Honestly, IMO, if the value of the dollar drops 90% it will be because there is a new global currency issued by a global central bank..

i thought about that after i typed it.  what do you think the odds of that are? (i think they are fairly low for a LOT of reasons)

But, in reality; China is forcing the sale of the Astoria, and has been found out to be major economic manipulators. Europe's banking system is still a heap of garbage, Europe is being overwhelmed by refugees and terrorism, and the Mujahideen has opened a new front in SE Asia while the Balkans continues to radicalize, etc, etc.(this war is going global)

So, maybe a better thought experiment would be; what if the USD was the only game in town??

it kinda is.  and the result has been a really low inflationary environment.

i think you can now guess the answer i was looking for. 

anyway, thanks, Aham.  my stomach is upset with me today.  probably the fact that i went out drinking two nights in a row.  i am staying home tonight.  that should fix it.

the truth is, as i said on that thread, Trump is good for me.  if he is good for you, as well, then we have little to argue about. 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Low inflation and stagnation has been the trends for many years now yep. And no, we have nothing to argue about. We just won't see eye to eye on the positives that President Trump will chalk up until a few more years down the road.

"interesting.  just out of curiosity, when was that?"

It was during the 2010-2012 time frame. During that time I was a democrat "sunshine pumper" according to the bears of the day. Which I always got a huge kick out of.

"anyway, thanks, Aham"

No worries, I could have probably worded things a bit differently. My truth is that my DW had to go to the ER Wednesday night due to what was most likely dehydration, they weren't exactly sure; after 24... Honestly my friend, our health care system up here is the biggest shit show I have ever seen. Due to shift changes and everyone under the sun getting "free" treatment; nobody has a clue what is going on...

Take it easy with that hangover for sure... We are gonna just chill around here too. Later.

[verrip1]

I think it's important to keep in mind that currency trends are much more comparative than absolute.  Sure, one can bring up the Weimar Republic and the price of bread being a barrow full of Deutchmarks if one wants to be absolute about it.  But such a condition is a historical rarity.  It's good fodder for the Virgil/ZeroHedge crowd to bemoan, but it doesn't have practical value. 

To look at the fairly recent but consistent weakening of the USD, put it in the context of the preceding growth trend of the dollar.  That growth was generally, and I think accurately, described as a situation not where the USD was so fantastic a currency, but that the others in the comparison basket sucked so bad at the time.  Recall all the dark days of Europe?  Greece, then Ireland, then Italy, then Portugal,  then Greece again, then Spain, then Iceland really did go bust, then Greece again, then flooding of immigrants.  Meanwhile there was Abenomics.  Then there was serious worry of a China implosion.  Tensions in the Ukraine affecting the ruble.  What else was there - the bhat?  The zloty?  The rand?  As I recall, the Canadian dollar did quite well during this time, even when Harper pulled the rug out from under the royalty trusts without notice.  But most of the world's currencies were in the shits.

Most currency ebbs and flows are not some chest pounding, patriotic exhibitions of our collective growing or shrinking penis lengths.  Currency is only one part of the fairly unpredictable mish mash of metrics called The Economy.  People who predict the future of the economy are notoriously and quite frequently proven wrong.  How long have we heard doom and gloom about interest rates going through the roof (which never happened)?  How long have we heard that bonds will crash and burn with Fed rate hikes (which never happened except for one short term blip at the outset)?  Taking currency trends to the extremes is as invaluable as pondering what is the real life significance of the square root of -1.

So we now have a situation where the USD is dropping at an unusually rapid rate.  Per the above, just before this drop began we had an unusually rapid rate of strengthening.  Why not consider the current status to be part of a cyclical normalization?  IOW, it's all good. 

We've had more than a century of governments lying their asses off SAYING that they want a strong currency, when in fact they ACT (or deliberately fail to act) to allow the currency to weaken to support near term economic growth.  It's the main tool in the box of fiscal policy, and always will be.  It just requires that top officials lie, and we all know that's what always happens, like it or not.