metals, mining, and more......

[djAdvocate]

i don't get equities sometimes.

today, gold broke above 1200, in a significant technical move.  the mining stocks should be going apeshit, but since the DJIA is down, the mining shares are trading about even.  and sure.  i should be thankful they are not down.  and i am.  but .....

i guess i can view this as "creating value", but i would rather see expression of value than creation thereof.

[tyfighter3]

V brought this stock up about 4 months ago and I have been watching it.

SXCP Price 19.55, year low 5.39, year high 20.20, and dividend yield at 12.15 %

Makes Coke from coal for making Iron. WAITING FOR a pull back and may put in a starting position in it.

[djAdvocate]

Jan 17, 2017 20:29:28 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

V brought this stock up about 4 months ago and I have been watching it.

SXCP Price 19.55, year low 5.39, year high 20.20, and dividend yield at 12.15 %

Makes Coke from coal for making Iron. WAITING FOR a pull back and may put in a starting position in it.

there are two things that concern me about this stock.

the first is technical: the trading volume has gone from millions to zero in the last month or two.

the second is the $48M interest expense last year (-vs- $5M the year before).  they must have taken out some huge borrowings.

i am also not liking the other 10M shares issued- but i can't really complain about that.  my mines do that all the time to raise cash.

the fundamentals are great on this, other than the above, and i love that dividend.

[djAdvocate]

uraniums are up, golds are down.  looking at a retest of 1200 again this morning.

[djAdvocate]

stocks are at a 6 week low this morning.  we have very tepid support for the DJIA around 19700.  if it fails, the next support kicks in at about 1000 points below.

NOTE: i don't know how you guys feel about "technicals".  do you even follow them?  if not, i will stop posting about them.

[wyouser]

Jan 19, 2017 14:14:42 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

stocks are at a 6 week low this morning.  we have very tepid support for the DJIA around 19700.  if it fails, the next support kicks in at about 1000 points below.

NOTE: i don't know how you guys feel about "technicals".  do you even follow them?  if not, i will stop posting about them.

Go ahead dj

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jan 17, 2017 0:31:15 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jan 17, 2017 0:19:06 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

A dog with fleas means that the company really isn't looking very good at all.

I'm thinking that Energizer is looking at lithium recycling as well. Energizer also has lots of cash and scientists that figured out how to recycle old batteries. Now, the one thing here is AMY's new Dr. on board and the fact they could very well be a target for a buyout. If ENR were to expand their recycling abilities, that makes ENR a very long term play.

my understanding is that AMY's process is proprietary.  Energizer might be a buyer.

that is actually the angle here.  apart from just assets in the soil, which AMY also has plenty of.

suit yourself, but i am pretty confident about the intermediate prospects for AMY.

if i am wrong about it, you can tease me later. 

I'm not saying AMY isn't a good pick. And I was definitely thinking ENR would be buyers of the tech. I was also thinking that if AMY could develop a way, ENR could potentially be close considering they also have a way to recycle other types of batteries.

They didn't focus on their resources, and dumped their cash into this tech. How long do they have to get this commercialized? Their assets maybe worth something, to creditors, that is.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jan 19, 2017 14:14:42 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

stocks are at a 6 week low this morning.  we have very tepid support for the DJIA around 19700.  if it fails, the next support kicks in at about 1000 points below.

NOTE: i don't know how you guys feel about "technicals".  do you even follow them?  if not, i will stop posting about them.

Metals, mining, and more!

[djAdvocate]

Jan 19, 2017 23:25:42 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Jan 17, 2017 0:31:15 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

my understanding is that AMY's process is proprietary.  Energizer might be a buyer.

that is actually the angle here.  apart from just assets in the soil, which AMY also has plenty of.

suit yourself, but i am pretty confident about the intermediate prospects for AMY.

if i am wrong about it, you can tease me later. 

I'm not saying AMY isn't a good pick. And I was definitely thinking ENR would be buyers of the tech. I was also thinking that if AMY could develop a way, ENR could potentially be close considering they also have a way to recycle other types of batteries.

They didn't focus on their resources, and dumped their cash into this tech. How long do they have to get this commercialized? Their assets maybe worth something, to creditors, that is.

i used to think this way about these things, too.  but after playing with these teeny miners for 10+ years, i have a different perspective.

take CVV for example.  they have about 1M acres of mineral rights in the Athcabasa basin.  now, mind you, U308 is dirt cheap right now.  there is massive inventory, and it is not going anywhere.  but if you believe that populations are going to continue to grow, that burning fuel for power is a dead end, and that energy is going to be important in the future, then investing in Uranium is kindof a no-brainer.  CVV is worth NOTHING on paper.  but Cameco and AREVA are both chasing them around like lonely teenagers at a rock concert.  that might not mean anything to you, but it means something to me.  and this is a stock i don't even OWN (i got a 10-bagger on this one earlier in the year, buying it for 10 cents and selling it for $1).

so, if you look at these juniors one way, they are worth NOTHING.  and if you look at them another, they are worth "the future".

[djAdvocate]

the top blew off Uranium today.!!!!!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jan 20, 2017 16:14:19 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jan 19, 2017 23:25:42 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I'm not saying AMY isn't a good pick. And I was definitely thinking ENR would be buyers of the tech. I was also thinking that if AMY could develop a way, ENR could potentially be close considering they also have a way to recycle other types of batteries.

They didn't focus on their resources, and dumped their cash into this tech. How long do they have to get this commercialized? Their assets maybe worth something, to creditors, that is.

i used to think this way about these things, too.  but after playing with these teeny miners for 10+ years, i have a different perspective.

take CVV for example.  they have about 1M acres of mineral rights in the Athcabasa basin.  now, mind you, U308 is dirt cheap right now.  there is massive inventory, and it is not going anywhere.  but if you believe that populations are going to continue to grow, that burning fuel for power is a dead end, and that energy is going to be important in the future, then investing in Uranium is kindof a no-brainer.  CVV is worth NOTHING on paper.  but Cameco and AREVA are both chasing them around like lonely teenagers at a rock concert.  that might not mean anything to you, but it means something to me.  and this is a stock i don't even OWN (i got a 10-bagger on this one earlier in the year, buying it for 10 cents and selling it for $1).

so, if you look at these juniors one way, they are worth NOTHING.  and if you look at them another, they are worth "the future".

The biggest reason I don't touch nuclear is if an accident happens it's lights out for years; another Fukishima(sic) and it's over for nuclear. In fact, the biggest thing the nuclear industry is underestimating - IMO - is the Pacific Ocean. Radiation is showing up on the west coast of North America. That's a big problem.

I'm intrigued by AMY. I made a small bet on AMD at $2.50 a couple years back, and I'm looking to sell to soon here. The recycling lithium angle is key. I was seriously asking how much cash burn they have.

The reason I bet on an AMD turn around was because of the fundamentals, yeah; but more because of the size.

I get that AMY has their assets, but they have also invested money into a technology; essentially they are betting the farm on it, IMO.

[djAdvocate]

Jan 25, 2017 0:15:27 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Jan 20, 2017 16:14:19 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i used to think this way about these things, too.  but after playing with these teeny miners for 10+ years, i have a different perspective.

take CVV for example.  they have about 1M acres of mineral rights in the Athcabasa basin.  now, mind you, U308 is dirt cheap right now.  there is massive inventory, and it is not going anywhere.  but if you believe that populations are going to continue to grow, that burning fuel for power is a dead end, and that energy is going to be important in the future, then investing in Uranium is kindof a no-brainer.  CVV is worth NOTHING on paper.  but Cameco and AREVA are both chasing them around like lonely teenagers at a rock concert.  that might not mean anything to you, but it means something to me.  and this is a stock i don't even OWN (i got a 10-bagger on this one earlier in the year, buying it for 10 cents and selling it for $1).

so, if you look at these juniors one way, they are worth NOTHING.  and if you look at them another, they are worth "the future".

The biggest reason I don't touch nuclear is if an accident happens it's lights out for years; another Fukishima(sic) and it's over for nuclear. In fact, the biggest thing the nuclear industry is underestimating - IMO - is the Pacific Ocean. Radiation is showing up on the west coast of North America. That's a big problem.

I'm intrigued by AMY. I made a small bet on AMD at $2.50 a couple years back, and I'm looking to sell to soon here. The recycling lithium angle is key. I was seriously asking how much cash burn they have.

The reason I bet on an AMD turn around was because of the fundamentals, yeah; but more because of the size.

I get that AMY has their assets, but they have also invested money into a technology; essentially they are betting the farm on it, IMO.

junior mines raise money through "trenches".  it is not like other securities.  personally, i hate it, but that is how they work.  AMY appears to have good "funders", and i am sure that this project will make it even easier for them to raise capital in the future.

so, over time, the assets per share go down and down and down (because it is spent in ways that don't show up on the books, and in ways that do, but don't produce value).  and that means that if they ever score a huge victory, it will be partitioned in a very unfavorable way to shareholders.  but here is the thing.

if a junior hits paydirt, it generally goes up by about a factor of 10x.  and it happens pretty quickly (less than a year).  if you lose EVERYTHING on (8) of your (10) juniors, the 9th one holds steady, and the 10th one goes 10x, you are probably more ahead than you would be in equities.  and that is kinda the game.

it is high odds, low success gambling, really.  but it is fun in that it is so off the beaten track that market makers don't play these issues, and i really hate gambling against the big players.

[djAdvocate]

there is a powerful downdraft in the metals sector this week, as equities and the dollar have been surging.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jan 25, 2017 12:09:28 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jan 25, 2017 0:15:27 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

The biggest reason I don't touch nuclear is if an accident happens it's lights out for years; another Fukishima(sic) and it's over for nuclear. In fact, the biggest thing the nuclear industry is underestimating - IMO - is the Pacific Ocean. Radiation is showing up on the west coast of North America. That's a big problem.

I'm intrigued by AMY. I made a small bet on AMD at $2.50 a couple years back, and I'm looking to sell to soon here. The recycling lithium angle is key. I was seriously asking how much cash burn they have.

The reason I bet on an AMD turn around was because of the fundamentals, yeah; but more because of the size.

I get that AMY has their assets, but they have also invested money into a technology; essentially they are betting the farm on it, IMO.

junior mines raise money through "trenches".  it is not like other securities.  personally, i hate it, but that is how they work.  AMY appears to have good "funders", and i am sure that this project will make it even easier for them to raise capital in the future.

so, over time, the assets per share go down and down and down (because it is spent in ways that don't show up on the books, and in ways that do, but don't produce value).  and that means that if they ever score a huge victory, it will be partitioned in a very unfavorable way to shareholders.  but here is the thing.

if a junior hits paydirt, it generally goes up by about a factor of 10x.  and it happens pretty quickly (less than a year).  if you lose EVERYTHING on (8) of your (10) juniors, the 9th one holds steady, and the 10th one goes 10x, you are probably more ahead than you would be in equities.  and that is kinda the game.

it is high odds, low success gambling, really.  but it is fun in that it is so off the beaten track that market makers don't play these issues, and i really hate gambling against the big players.

That is crazy sauce!

I had no idea about the money movement of miners, thanks for that information. I think you will do well with AMY, it's more than just a junior miner. I might bet on it with ENR.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jan 26, 2017 11:46:41 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

there is a powerful downdraft in the metals sector this week, as equities and the dollar have been surging.

Something else to note:

China’s Australia Coal Deal Boosts Link to Fuel-Hungry World

China isn’t just buying Australia’s coal assets, it’s also expanding access to the limited infrastructure needed to ship it globally.

Yancoal Australia Ltd.’s $2.45 billion purchase of the biggest slice of Rio Tinto Group’s coal operations will double the Chinese-owned miner’s output in the country. The deal also includes a 36.5 percent stake in Port Waratah Coal Services Ltd., the owner of two terminals at the port of Newcastle, Australia’s main conduit for thermal coal. The amount Yancoal will be permitted to ship will double.

[djAdvocate]

Jan 26, 2017 22:27:06 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Jan 25, 2017 12:09:28 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

junior mines raise money through "trenches".  it is not like other securities.  personally, i hate it, but that is how they work.  AMY appears to have good "funders", and i am sure that this project will make it even easier for them to raise capital in the future.

so, over time, the assets per share go down and down and down (because it is spent in ways that don't show up on the books, and in ways that do, but don't produce value).  and that means that if they ever score a huge victory, it will be partitioned in a very unfavorable way to shareholders.  but here is the thing.

if a junior hits paydirt, it generally goes up by about a factor of 10x.  and it happens pretty quickly (less than a year).  if you lose EVERYTHING on (8) of your (10) juniors, the 9th one holds steady, and the 10th one goes 10x, you are probably more ahead than you would be in equities.  and that is kinda the game.

it is high odds, low success gambling, really.  but it is fun in that it is so off the beaten track that market makers don't play these issues, and i really hate gambling against the big players.

That is crazy sauce!

I had no idea about the money movement of miners, thanks for that information. I think you will do well with AMY, it's more than just a junior miner. I might bet on it with ENR.

it is.  and it takes a strong stomach.  i have had 90+% losses in MANY juniors.  but stop lossing them is useless, because often they girate so wildly that they will trip your loss order, and someone else will turn a profit off that when they sell at your buy price.,

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

You have to keep an eagle eye on that. That is the single biggest reason I don't even worry about trading. Might change in the future though...

[tyfighter3]

How about this Metal.

www.yahoo.com/news/hydrogen-turned-metal-change-world-205955795.html

[djAdvocate]

Jan 27, 2017 13:13:36 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

How about this Metal.

www.yahoo.com/news/hydrogen-turned-metal-change-world-205955795.html

the article is right.  it is indeed the holy grail.

[djAdvocate]

metals started off really badly this week- shares were down 5% on MT.  however, they recovered about 80% of that in the balance of the week, and finished -1% for the week.

when i say "metals" i don't mean gold and silver but the combination of gold, silver and uranium.  uranium behaves differently than gold and silver, as it is considered an industrial metal, not a precious metal (and for good reason- it is cheap).

gold and silver were up sharply the first six months of the year, but pulled back in the last six months.  uranium has been on fire since the new administration took over.  most of the juniors are up over 50%.  even CCJ, which is a senior producer, is up 50%.

the combination of these three has performed very well in the last (12) months.  but it makes it a bit weird for me to report the results given the fact that gold and silver were down m-th and only picked up friday, whereas uranium went fairly berserk all week long.

[djAdvocate]

precious metals are rising again, and uranium declining.  shares are up 2-3% today overall.

good start to the week.  the DJIA failure to hold 20k is taking some money off the table.

[djAdvocate]

wow.  what a banger.  i am going to finish +3.5% today.

this is a TREMENDOUS year so far.  i will post my YTD totals on this same post later today.

edit: +3.25% today, +12.45% for the year.

am i retired yet?

[djAdvocate]

i bought a ton of Bannerman Resources at 2.2 cents.  it is now trading at 7 cents in the US. 

this is one of those 10:1 plays i was talking about Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger.  i have a sell in for half of it at 9.5 cents.  i will hold the rest to 22.

if you are wondering why this one, i can explain it.  but your eyes are probably glazing over by now.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Feb 2, 2017 12:45:29 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i bought a ton of Bannerman Resources at 2.2 cents.  it is now trading at 7 cents in the US. 

this is one of those 10:1 plays i was talking about Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger .  i have a sell in for half of it at 9.5 cents.  i will hold the rest to 22.

if you are wondering why this one, i can explain it.  but your eyes are probably glazing over by now.

Haha, not even a bit my man.

I love when people make money, and I love to learn. These past couple weeks have been crazy busy sorry for the length of time for responses.
What's the story with this one??

[djAdvocate]

Feb 3, 2017 15:29:47 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Feb 2, 2017 12:45:29 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i bought a ton of Bannerman Resources at 2.2 cents.  it is now trading at 7 cents in the US. 

this is one of those 10:1 plays i was talking about Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger .  i have a sell in for half of it at 9.5 cents.  i will hold the rest to 22.

if you are wondering why this one, i can explain it.  but your eyes are probably glazing over by now.

Haha, not even a bit my man.

I love when people make money, and I love to learn. These past couple weeks have been crazy busy sorry for the length of time for responses.
What's the story with this one??

this is a uranium junior with a lot of assets in the ground.  but this one doesn't really benefit from the tensions or policies of the US/Europe/Middle East.  their target market is China.

if you think China is heading for disaster, this is probably one to avoid. 

[djAdvocate]

Capstone Mining has long been one of my best holdings (CSFFF).  this is NOT a junior mine, by definition, because juniors are generally considered to be NON-PRODUCING.  so, this is most properly called a "small senior". 

Capstone has mining operations all along the Pacific Rim in North and South America.  they are producing, and profitable when the commodity value is there to support it.  their primary metal mined is COPPER.  if some of you recall, Copper had a huge run a few years ago, and prices skyrocketed.  when this happened, CS went to $5/share, and was swimming in cash.

between 2013 and last October, Copper dropped 50%.  as a result, CS sustained heavy losses in 2015.  however, with Copper rising 25% since then, CS is profitable again.  if pricing holds at this level (i am reasonably confident it will), then i expect CS to report 10-15 cents/share in profit for 2017.

there is something else you should know about this company, and that is that they are worth $3/share in equity.  in other words, it is selling at 1/3 of equity right now ($1.15/share), which makes it ridiculously cheap.  in fact, it almost meets the Buffet Standard, since their cash and equivalents per share are almost equal to share price.

i strongly recommend this one for 2017 with a price target of $2.

[djAdvocate]

Gold is off to a nice start in Asia this morning, trading near it's 2 month high ($1225).  metals stocks will be sharply higher in the AM if this holds.

update: uranium got clobbered this last few days, but the gold seniors are moving higher, including a new 52 week high by CSFFF.  i have a sell in for $1.23 for 25% of my shares.  hopefully that will strike tomorrow.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Feb 4, 2017 13:04:25 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Capstone Mining has long been one of my best holdings (CSFFF).  this is NOT a junior mine, by definition, because juniors are generally considered to be NON-PRODUCING.  so, this is most properly called a "small senior". 

Capstone has mining operations all along the Pacific Rim in North and South America.  they are producing, and profitable when the commodity value is there to support it.  their primary metal mined is COPPER.  if some of you recall, Copper had a huge run a few years ago, and prices skyrocketed.  when this happened, CS went to $5/share, and was swimming in cash.

between 2013 and last October, Copper dropped 50%.  as a result, CS sustained heavy losses in 2015.  however, with Copper rising 25% since then, CS is profitable again.  if pricing holds at this level (i am reasonably confident it will), then i expect CS to report 10-15 cents/share in profit for 2017.

there is something else you should know about this company, and that is that they are worth $3/share in equity.  in other words, it is selling at 1/3 of equity right now ($1.15/share), which makes it ridiculously cheap.  in fact, it almost meets the Buffet Standard, since their cash and equivalents per share are almost equal to share price.

i strongly recommend this one for 2017 with a price target of $2.

Nice pick! The bolded part is key, IMO. I was talking to some people elsewhere about this exact topic last fall. As far as I'm concerned the proper ratio for P/E is 1. What we have seen in the last 30 years is "accepted" P/E grow from 10 to 15; and now I have seen people talking about 17! I'm as guilty as anyone for using 15 as a baseline, but I got thinking about after the next big sell off, and the opportunity there would be to put some reality back into the P/E metric.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Feb 6, 2017 1:03:20 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Gold is off to a nice start in Asia this morning, trading near it's 2 month high ($1225).  metals stocks will be sharply higher in the AM if this holds.

update: uranium got clobbered this last few days, but the gold seniors are moving higher, including a new 52 week high by CSFFF.  i have a sell in for $1.23 for 25% of my shares.  hopefully that will strike tomorrow.

I'm thinking this is what's up with uranium; Radiation levels in the Fukushima reactor are soaring unexpectedly. That Pacific Ocean thing previously mentioned. Also interesting to note, AREVA, NorthStar, Form Decommissioning Partnership

[djAdvocate]

Feb 7, 2017 14:50:49 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Feb 4, 2017 13:04:25 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Capstone Mining has long been one of my best holdings (CSFFF).  this is NOT a junior mine, by definition, because juniors are generally considered to be NON-PRODUCING.  so, this is most properly called a "small senior". 

Capstone has mining operations all along the Pacific Rim in North and South America.  they are producing, and profitable when the commodity value is there to support it.  their primary metal mined is COPPER.  if some of you recall, Copper had a huge run a few years ago, and prices skyrocketed.  when this happened, CS went to $5/share, and was swimming in cash.

between 2013 and last October, Copper dropped 50%.  as a result, CS sustained heavy losses in 2015.  however, with Copper rising 25% since then, CS is profitable again.  if pricing holds at this level (i am reasonably confident it will), then i expect CS to report 10-15 cents/share in profit for 2017.

there is something else you should know about this company, and that is that they are worth $3/share in equity.  in other words, it is selling at 1/3 of equity right now ($1.15/share), which makes it ridiculously cheap.  in fact, it almost meets the Buffet Standard, since their cash and equivalents per share are almost equal to share price.

i strongly recommend this one for 2017 with a price target of $2.

Nice pick! The bolded part is key, IMO. I was talking to some people elsewhere about this exact topic last fall. As far as I'm concerned the proper ratio for P/E is 1. What we have seen in the last 30 years is "accepted" P/E grow from 10 to 15; and now I have seen people talking about 17! I'm as guilty as anyone for using 15 as a baseline, but I got thinking about after the next big sell off, and the opportunity there would be to put some reality back into the P/E metric.

yeah, most companies are ridiculously overvalued.

incidentally, i got my strike of $1.23 on this today! 

now, i have to figure out where to put it.