metals, mining, and more......

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Feb 7, 2017 15:28:07 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Feb 7, 2017 14:50:49 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Nice pick! The bolded part is key, IMO. I was talking to some people elsewhere about this exact topic last fall. As far as I'm concerned the proper ratio for P/E is 1. What we have seen in the last 30 years is "accepted" P/E grow from 10 to 15; and now I have seen people talking about 17! I'm as guilty as anyone for using 15 as a baseline, but I got thinking about after the next big sell off, and the opportunity there would be to put some reality back into the P/E metric.

yeah, most companies are ridiculously overvalued.

incidentally, i got my strike of $1.23 on this today! 

now, i have to figure out where to put it.

Nice!

Well, as we say around here, kash is king!

[djAdvocate]

uranium juniors are on fire this morning.  don't know what is causing it.

URPTF and UUUU are both up over 5%

[Opti]

Feb 8, 2017 16:01:03 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

uranium juniors are on fire this morning.  don't know what is causing it.

URPTF and UUUU are both up over 5%

Korea is getting ready to nuke Trump Tower and needs supplies?

[djAdvocate]

the rise has to do with a few factors.  i am feeling queasy right now, or i would list them.

so, uranium was flat the last three days, and gold took off.  so this was a very good week.

my portfolio is +17% this year.  it's pretty ridiculous.

CSFFF hit another year high.  it is almost up to $1.28

[djAdvocate]

this is precisely the same start as last week.  Uranium juniors went sharply higher, and gold was flat.

Bannerman hit 10 cents Australian last week.  spectacular.

CSFFF is moving sharply higher.  it hit $1.33 today.

edit: next strike is $1.54

[djAdvocate]

uranium is still on fire.  again, just like last week.  first two days way up on Uranium.

UUUU is approaching a 52 week high, up 60% since i mentioned it here. 

CCJ (an Aman mention) is recovering nicely from it's recent lows.

portfolio +19.5% THIS YEAR as of this morning.  ridiculous.

[verrip1]

I used to trade a few uranium miners and processors, oh, about a decade ago.  Still hold some old Paladin Energy PALAF shares as rather a legacy of my trading years.  YTD is a bit above 100% return.  However, since its high today was just south of $0.13, I could take my wife out for a nice dinner on the YTD profits.    Doubt I'll ever trade individual miners any more; those who watch miners these days, especially juniors, are way more knowledgeable than I'll ever be.

I'm slowly accumulating some more paper Au and Ag.  Both look like fair momentum plays.  Who knows, the US stock market looks more primed for correction every day, the world is still a dangerous place, unexpected disasters occur, well, unexpectedly(!!), and bonds continue to show at least a modicum of weakness in a low and only slightly increasing interest rate environment. 

[djAdvocate]

i won't be caught dead bitching down the market.  i always regret it.

so, instead, i will back you up on the gold and silver.  i think they look good right now.  i think we got a couple years left in our cyclic commodities bull.  maybe as many as four.

i have some PALAF.  Bannerman too.  both penny stocks.  but i have a LOT of shares of each.  so, more than dinner.  more like either would pay for my upcoming trip to London, Berlin and Malta.

i kinda wish some of the juniors would reverse split, but it is almost always a disastrous decision.  something about these low values prevents people from trading them market. 

i will probably get my ass kicked soon.  i was up 100% in the first half of last year, then down 20% for the balance of the year.  i am up 20% so far this year, so slightly above last year's peak.  no end in sight right now.  momentum appears to be building.

i almost had my portfolio balanced last year between growth stocks and metals.  but now it is all out of whack again. 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

There's nothing wrong with bitchin' down the market, especially one that is as long in the tooth as this one; it's the shorting of it that will get ya.

The Widowmaker trade applies to all shorts as far as I'm concerned.

[djAdvocate]

i got out of the market 100% either in 2006 or 2007.  it ran for another 1-2 years after that.  i got in again in mid-2009, and out again about half in mid-2010.  now, that wasn't a mistake, but it is complicated WHY it wasn't a mistake.  i repatriated my retirement in real estate, and that was a really smart investment.

but i SUCK at calling tops.  i really do.  i was nowhere close in 2006, and i was nowhere close in 2010 (but i did pretty damn well in 2000).

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Reminds me of what Bruce says; I always make money because I sell too soon.

[djAdvocate]

Feb 14, 2017 23:01:08 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Reminds me of what Bruce says; I always make money because I sell too soon.

i'm going to rob that, if i can remember it. 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I know I have. It's easy to remember, it's why you have been doing well with your investments.

[verrip1]

It's pretty hard to argue about taking profits.  One wonders if it ever could be a bad thing.

These days I harken back to the days of the 5% money market.  Wasn't that long ago, but probably won't return for a good while going forward. Zero risk, 5% at low inflation sounds awfully good for control of a distribution portfolio.

But back to metals, I've used The Permanent Portfolio PRPFX as a portfolio balancer since it uses a static allocation to multiple asset classes including gold and silver.  Much broader allocation than either the typical balanced fund or the fund of funds approach, which almost never have foreign currency, gold or silver, and almost always include and overweight US large caps.

[djAdvocate]

yeah, you guys are right.  i am always thinking "i could have done better", but i am never thinking "i did well".

[djAdvocate]

gold and silver are up today.  this is very similar to last week's pattern.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Feb 16, 2017 0:33:44 GMT -5 verrip1 said:

It's pretty hard to argue about taking profits.  One wonders if it ever could be a bad thing.

These days I harken back to the days of the 5% money market.  Wasn't that long ago, but probably won't return for a good while going forward. Zero risk, 5% at low inflation sounds awfully good for control of a distribution portfolio.

But back to metals, I've used The Permanent Portfolio PRPFX as a portfolio balancer since it uses a static allocation to multiple asset classes including gold and silver.  Much broader allocation than either the typical balanced fund or the fund of funds approach, which almost never have foreign currency, gold or silver, and almost always include and overweight US large caps.

That's why we love dividends! Consistently taking profits off the table, yours to reinvest. Companies that make things for the consumer market tap 65% of GDP, that's a big money market.

If you're speculation though, if you're not taking profits along the way.... JMO

On that note. I'm trying to decide what to do with AMD right now. Great turn around. Lisa Su is a great CEO, and they are about to unleash a processor that's going to eat Intel's lunch $$ to processing power.

On the other hand. Run up has been huge, and if they don't deliver in the next 2Q the stock will be at like $6-8 I bet.

I have no reason to doubt Su's ability to pull this off, and a double on the stock from here is possible if they take the share from Intel, while singing Intel to a graphics contract.

[verrip1]

When Jerry Sanders used to run AMD, the place was a rollercoaster. Owning their stock required constant attention to look for warning signs of downturn. I knew several AMD middle managers, and they were always worrying about when to exercise and when to sell optioned stock because of the price volatility. I left the semiconductor business in 1995, so I've lost insight into how they're doing these days.

Dividends have their place.  When I was in accumulation, I used to use them from value stocks and high distribution CEFs weighted to give me a cash flow for availability to buy anything that became way underpriced temporarily (IMO) at all times (above and beyond my emergency cash stash).  Over the years, I did much better with high growth, no dividend stocks than with dividend generators. 

I can't think of any metals investments that give dividends of significance, if at all.  Maybe dj has.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The price swings in AMD price hasn't changed much. I'm going to take these gains that were made on a $500 bet and put them into an algorithmic trading system.. But since the company has turned around and the next couple quarters for AMD look good...

If you're a good stock picker - which you are if you did well - I think an investor can beat long term "DOW Diversified" reinvestment statgtgy. I personally believe in the power of compounding through dividends, but it wouldn't stop me from throwing down some cash on a good value pick going forward now.

ABX, and TCK.B are two dividend metal players.

[djAdvocate]

TICC has been great over the last (12) months.  but it sure sucked before then.

[djAdvocate]

Feb 19, 2017 15:56:52 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

The price swings in AMD price hasn't changed much. I'm going to take these gains that were made on a $500 bet and put them into an algorithmic trading system.. But since the company has turned around and the next couple quarters for AMD look good...

If you're a good stock picker - which you are if you did well - I think an investor can beat long term "DOW Diversified" reinvestment statgtgy. I personally believe in the power of compounding through dividends, but it wouldn't stop me from throwing down some cash on a good value pick going forward now.

ABX, and TCK.B are two dividend metal players.

Teck Cominco is great, but be well aware that it has gone to under $10 twice in the last (10) years.

it is quite volatile.  however, base metals look REALLY GOOD right now, so this one is probably good.

[djAdvocate]

very weird start to this week.  some of the mines are way up, others way down.  i think this is profit taking, and bargain hunting.  metals prices are pretty flat.

[djAdvocate]

Uraniums got clobbered today.  we will see how long the selling goes on.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Feb 19, 2017 22:24:30 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Feb 19, 2017 15:56:52 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

The price swings in AMD price hasn't changed much. I'm going to take these gains that were made on a $500 bet and put them into an algorithmic trading system.. But since the company has turned around and the next couple quarters for AMD look good...

If you're a good stock picker - which you are if you did well - I think an investor can beat long term "DOW Diversified" reinvestment statgtgy. I personally believe in the power of compounding through dividends, but it wouldn't stop me from throwing down some cash on a good value pick going forward now.

ABX, and TCK.B are two dividend metal players.

Teck Cominco is great, but be well aware that it has gone to under $10 twice in the last (10) years.

it is quite volatile.  however, base metals look REALLY GOOD right now, so this one is probably good.

Teck Resources has been on a tear the last year. Without a doubt a rising tide situation. They don't have very good books, and as you mention, it has tanked a couple times, hard. There was also a problem with their zinc production, I can't remember off the top of my head what it was. However, as my thoughts on it last year were, as long as people continue to speculate that we don't have a huge problem in front of us....(of epic proportions, not just regular run of the mill every day problems.)

[djAdvocate]

CSFFF is on it's THIRD test of a (2) year high at $1.38, today.  it might fall back again......but i am pretty confident it is going to break it this quarter.  i have another 25% of my shares up for sale at $1.54

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Way of the future. Way of the future.

Why Is Asia Returning to Coal?

For Japan, coal has emerged as the best alternative to replacing its 54 nuclear reactors, which are deeply unpopular with the population and seen as symbols of devastation after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster six years ago. Mindful of the public mood, the government of Shinzo Abe has completely given up on the country’s dream of nuclear self-sufficiency, and pulled the plug in December on the $8.5 billion experimental reactor project at Monju. On February 1, the government pledged to decommission all reactors and replace them with 45 new coal-fired power plants equipped with the latest clean coal technology. In this, Tokyo seeks to achieve two overreaching goals: preserve its energy security and stay on course to fulfill the obligations set forth by the 2016 Paris Climate Agreement.

But why did Abe go with coal and not renewables or, say, natural gas? After Fukushima, Japan initially ramped up its imports of liquefied natural gas, but realized that LNG would be prohibitively expensive in the long-term. Cost-conscious, the government has instead opted for high-efficiency low-emissions (HELE) coal plants and plans to market its clean coal technologies abroad in addition to implementing them at home. Coal power already made up 31 percent of Japan’s energy mix in 2015 but under the current plan, the fossil fuel will become the country’s primary power source by 2019.

[djAdvocate]

the above is great news for the US.  we have the largest coal reserves in the world, i believe.

[djAdvocate]

mining shares are lower, but gold and silver are higher today.  this is a buying opportunity.

CSFFF is trading at $1.27 this morning.

[djAdvocate]

picked up some shares of SORL ($3.06) this morning.  i have it targeted for a 50% gain this year.

edit: it looks like AMY is ready for another move.  i have shares for sale at about 30 cents.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Feb 23, 2017 0:46:43 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

the above is great news for the US.  we have the largest coal reserves in the world, i believe.

Even more importantly, North America I do believe has the largest coal and natural gas deposits in the world. This is bad news for large battery storage, bat/bird killing windmills, dirty manufactured solar panels and nuclear power(more than likely).

Musk and his cash burn are also in for a big shock I do believe.

There is also this to consider; Hundreds of scientists urge Trump to withdraw from U.N. climate-change agency