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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2014 14:44:44 GMT -5
From what's been released so far, none of the contacts have yet exhibited symptoms. They've got a while to go, though, before they're in the clear. The fact that Mr. Duncan is now considered critical is no surprise. This stuff is nasty. Fortunately, it's not easy to catch! 12 days now. any new cases? I am feeling so cautiously optimistic about this.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 10, 2014 14:50:55 GMT -5
12 days now. any new cases? I am feeling so cautiously optimistic about this. most people are symptomatic in 8-10 days. it has been nearly 2 weeks. you have every reason to be cautiously optimistic.
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ArchietheDragon
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Post by ArchietheDragon on Oct 10, 2014 14:51:57 GMT -5
I am feeling so cautiously optimistic about this. most people are symptomatic in 8-10 days. it has been nearly 2 weeks. you have every reason to be cautiously optimistic. Don't worry. When the government wants us to have we will have it.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 10, 2014 15:25:52 GMT -5
most people are symptomatic in 8-10 days. it has been nearly 2 weeks. you have every reason to be cautiously optimistic. Don't worry. When the government wants us to have we will have it. two words: killer....bees
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 10, 2014 16:16:57 GMT -5
12 days now. any new cases? I am feeling so cautiously optimistic about this. I'm glad to hear that, xmascookie. While these folks aren't out of the woods yet, this is NOT an easy thing to catch. It really isn't.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Oct 10, 2014 17:40:48 GMT -5
There could be a considerable delay between the time when an isolated or self-isolated person experiences a fever and a positive test for Ebola.
If we do have secondary cases, accusations that we were kept out of the loop or that a diagnosis was delayed or hidden are pretty much inevitable.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Oct 10, 2014 18:09:07 GMT -5
so, I keep seeing the 8000 cases of ebola splashed across the statistics - and 4000 deaths.
I know it's challenging to count the deaths - cause they have to do a blood test and have confirmation. I know they have 'levels' like confirmed, suspected and then there another that escapes me. I get that.
But anyway... what does the 8000 cases mean? Is that 8000 minus 4000 deaths minus how ever many people survived already I'll guesstimate 2000 so right this minute there's maybe 2000 'known' people with ebola?
Or is the 8000 the current count of sick people.
I keep imagining 8000 people all sick at the same time... but I don't think we're there yet... are we??
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2014 18:32:36 GMT -5
so, I keep seeing the 8000 cases of ebola splashed across the statistics - and 4000 deaths. I know it's challenging to count the deaths - cause they have to do a blood test and have confirmation. I know they have 'levels' like confirmed, suspected and then there another that escapes me. I get that. But anyway... what does the 8000 cases mean? Is that 8000 minus 4000 deaths minus how ever many people survived already I'll guesstimate 2000 so right this minute there's maybe 2000 'known' people with ebola? Or is the 8000 the current count of sick people. I keep imagining 8000 people all sick at the same time... but I don't think we're there yet... are we?? I have not read this yet but maybe some answers here. www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/the-ominous-math-of-the-ebola-epidemic/2014/10/09/3cad9e76-4fb2-11e4-8c24-487e92bc997b_story.html
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Oct 10, 2014 20:06:12 GMT -5
Thanks. I hadn't see that article.
I'm glad they kind of compared it to Small Pox - cause I thought the HIV/AIDs comparison wasn't very good. But then Small Pox doesn't happen these days. Small Pox becomes cyclical - people get sick (many die) the survivors are immune (or close to it). The next generation is born - no immunity what so ever. Eventually Small Pox finds it way back and the young take the hardest hit. Once it rips thru and everyone has either managed to survive or avoid infection the cycle starts again.
I would think when predicting that ebola will always 'be there' now... that it would play out a bit like small pox... an infection starts, people survive or die, and the survivors go on starting the cycle again. A cycle might be years.
I'd say what would be bad - would be if ebola finds a new host/reservoir that it doesn't kill but that can transmit the virus - like mosquitos or ticks/lice/fleas or rats. At that point we won't be getting rid of ebola anytime soon. It will wax and wane but we won't be able to get rid of it completely.
Meant to add - I think we'll be getting less coverage of the crisis - Liberia just restricted all the journalists from reporting on what they see. We haven't heard much from Guinea or Sierra Leone lately probably because of a black out.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2014 20:15:11 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure it will be with us until there is a vaccine. Hurry please.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 10, 2014 20:18:43 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure it will be with us until there is a vaccine. Hurry please. It'll be with us even if there is a vaccine. Too many people who decide (for whatever reason) they don't like the vaccine and aren't going to give it to their children. Kinda like pertussis is back.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2014 20:19:41 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure it will be with us until there is a vaccine. Hurry please. It'll be with us even if there is a vaccine. Too many people who decide (for whatever reason) they don't like the vaccine and aren't going to give it to their children. Kinda like pertussis is back. But it wouldn't be with me.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 10, 2014 20:39:54 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure it will be with us until there is a vaccine. Hurry please. It'll be with us even if there is a vaccine. Too many people who decide (for whatever reason) they don't like the vaccine and aren't going to give it to their children. Kinda like pertussis is back. Polio is another. Too much suspicion in uneducated areas of the world.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Oct 10, 2014 21:39:02 GMT -5
Cases of it have been confirmed in nearly all 48 States - not sure about Alaska and Hawaii. It's not a good thing but it isn't all that new...
Read somewhere early on that the entrovirus isn't new to America - I think they said it made the rounds about 20 years ago (and then probably back in the 60's). That's kinda why kids seem to be hit the hardest. They weren't around for the last round of it AND they haven't been exposed to enough other virus -es (virii?) like it.
Kinda a reminder that there's lots of virus and bacteria 'uggy buggies' out there.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2014 0:23:46 GMT -5
There could be a considerable delay between the time when an isolated or self-isolated person experiences a fever and a positive test for Ebola. If we do have secondary cases, accusations that we were kept out of the loop or that a diagnosis was delayed or hidden are pretty much inevitable. actually, isolation is quite effective, and the exposed persons were all isolated before October 1st, which means that before Halloween, provided that there are no new NON-ISOLATED cases, this thing will be over, for now. will this be the last time we have to worry about it? of course not. we have to worry about it until it is contained in Africa. one of those little side effects of living in a global community.
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Post by Jaguar on Oct 11, 2014 0:33:44 GMT -5
I was reading recently about a respiratory issue that Canada has been investigating that has caused paralysis problems in children. Unilateral and temporary in most cases it is thought to be. Apparently they have been tracking this for quite a long time, but have found an increase and cluster cases. That's a bit worrisome with the entovirus in the states, to me at least. But I'm not terribly knowledgable about either right now. Both seemed to center in plains area, from what I recall? Not sure.
That's Enterovirus D68
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Oct 12, 2014 6:31:57 GMT -5
shit! Not unexpected, and surprisingly timely, but what's not being said bothers me tremendously. They aren't telling us whether this patient treated Mr. Duncan on the 25th, or in the early part of his treatment on the 28th, or whether this patient treated Mr. Duncan after he was isolated. There's a hint that it might be the later in this NYT piece. It appears that this new case was not among the 10 people initially isolated. Three or four of the 10 persons under isolation were people that Mr. Duncan had been staying with. The remainder were hospital and ambulance personnel.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Oct 12, 2014 6:44:49 GMT -5
The BBC version of the story. If you're paywall blocked from the NYT story, you may be able to get around the paywall by accessing the story via Google news.
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Post by busymom on Oct 12, 2014 7:23:55 GMT -5
Aw carp! We didn't make it to 21 days. I wish they were releasing more information on exactly what sort of contact this health care worker had with the patient... (ER worker, hospital employee, etc.)
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Miss Tequila
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Post by Miss Tequila on Oct 12, 2014 7:48:05 GMT -5
Aw carp! We didn't make it to 21 days. I wish they were releasing more information on exactly what sort of contact this health care worker had with the patient... (ER worker, hospital employee, etc.) I'm watching coverage right now...this person was involved in the care on the second visit. This person was in a low risk pool (I guess that means no known direct contact but they didn't really say). Scares the shit out of me Eta: the hospital said this person was wearing protecting gear. Full CDC precautions....gown, gloves, mask, etc.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Oct 12, 2014 7:53:29 GMT -5
It's not that I fear that there will be an outbreak. Let me reiterate this, I absolutely believe that we have the resources and the knowledge to keep this contained. I'm just feeling a bit "handled" at the moment and it pisses me off.
We need to know the details of when and how transmission occurred in order to avoid it in the future.
FWIW, I'm not in the healthcare business or even remotely connected to it. If I were, I'd probably be spitting nails right now. My fury wouldn't be about the risk to myself (still pretty small) as much as it would be about lack of responsibility and accountability that we have baked into our healthcare system.
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Post by Jaguar on Oct 12, 2014 9:33:51 GMT -5
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 12, 2014 11:38:02 GMT -5
I'm waiting to see how protocol was broken, if the stricken employee knows, and/or will admit to it. I'd like to know, as well, what their protocols actually are. With something like Ebola, those protocols are critical. If employees don't do exactly as protocols dictate, they're at risk. Hopefully, the hospital has the strictest protocols in place; however, human error is human error and does crop up. I've seen it happen. Lapse of judgement, poor protocols, unthinking act, or accident - any of these can result in infection.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2014 13:22:36 GMT -5
What is known about transmitting this from human to animals? I see the Spanish woman's dog has been euthanized and this newest woman's pet will be quarantined at least? I have read about bush meat and bats being the way people in Africa contracted Ebola but what about the other way around, human to animal. Does anyone know?
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 12, 2014 14:41:23 GMT -5
I'm waiting to see how protocol was broken, if the stricken employee knows, and/or will admit to it. I'd like to know, as well, what their protocols actually are. With something like Ebola, those protocols are critical. If employees don't do exactly as protocols dictate, they're at risk. Hopefully, the hospital has the strictest protocols in place; however, human error is human error and does crop up. I've seen it happen. Lapse of judgement, poor protocols, unthinking act, or accident - any of these can result in infection. This is what I've been saying all along. Plans, protocols, and safeguards are only as good as the people involved with them. People are human that get lazy, tired, sloppy, and complacent. Depending on these protocols is a serious gamble...one I'm not comfortable with. Since I spent most of my career with these same protocols, I'm pretty comfortable with them. Yes, there will be errors because people ARE human and accidents happen no matter how many precautions you take. Because this particular virus is so difficult to get, I'm not all that concerned about them. Furthermore, those that happen under these circumstances are the least likely to find themselves fatally ill. It will be caught early enough to mitigate that possibility in the vast majority of cases. If you choose to worry about it, however, that's up to you.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2014 16:04:08 GMT -5
This is what I've been saying all along. Plans, protocols, and safeguards are only as good as the people involved with them. People are human that get lazy, tired, sloppy, and complacent. Depending on these protocols is a serious gamble...one I'm not comfortable with. Since I spent most of my career with these same protocols, I'm pretty comfortable with them. Yes, there will be errors because people ARE human and accidents happen no matter how many precautions you take. Because this particular virus is so difficult to get, I'm not all that concerned about them. Furthermore, those that happen under these circumstances are the least likely to find themselves fatally ill. It will be caught early enough to mitigate that possibility in the vast majority of cases. If you choose to worry about it, however, that's up to you. I don't think being concerned about it necessarily means worrying about it. I am concerned. I wonder how many Ebola patients that any given US hospital can handle before things get out of control. I wonder how people trained to be cautious and wearing hazmat suits are still contracting the virus. I wonder how the CDC can say on one hand that isolation is the key to combatting this virus and on the other say that flight bans will isolate the west African affected countries and then its a bad thing. I don't think flight bans of those coming from those countries equates with sending help into those countries with strict restrictions when coming back in. I wonder how the US will be better at helping those infected countries while busy fighting infections on the home front. I think worrying about it is fruitless. I think having questions and concerns about it is reasonable.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 12, 2014 16:27:34 GMT -5
I don't see any problem with having questions and concerns, either. I do see a problem with fear mongering; especially, by those who have never worked with infectious disease and actually know very little about it - almost as little as they know about protocols and procedures for working in an environment where infectious disease is present. Believe me, I'm so worried about this that if I weren't 72 years old and didn't have my mother to care for here, I'd be in West Africa right now, not sitting here wringing my hands and crying about what might be. That's just not my style, and it doesn't go along with what I've experienced. I don't have AIDS. I don't have Hepatitis Type A, B, C or D. I don't have SARS, or MRSA, or MERS, or TB. I've treated every darned one of those at one time or another. No, I'm not going to fret about what might happen if ...
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Post by haapai on Oct 12, 2014 16:45:57 GMT -5
mmhmm, can you tell me if US Ebola treatment protocols include dousing the exterior of PPE with bleach solution prior to removing it? I'm seeing that step described in stories from West Africa but not in stories from the US and I'm straining to imagine US hospitals having the physical setup to include that step.
I'd also like to know how to flag or reference someone in a post, but that's a pretty minor concern.
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Post by EVT1 on Oct 12, 2014 16:46:54 GMT -5
I am not worried about it either- my company transports patients in Dallas and we have had additional training on this a while back. The only thing I worry about is getting cut in the patient compartment or finding a needle that didn't make it into the bin- plus dried blood on cots, floors, etc. I know better than to stick my hand where I cannot see and take precautions. We transport people with bad things all the time and it is rare that there is an issue. Fear is an easy substitute for understanding. The media loves it- the scary pictures and music, and the politicians love it to beat the president up and scare up some votes. People need to chill out and maybe do some real research and quit listening to the idiots.
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Oct 12, 2014 16:50:45 GMT -5
Meanwhile... more than 6000 Americans die every day
You are probably better off eating well/sorting the diabetes out/looking after your heart....or watching out when you cross the road than worrying about ebola.
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