Rocky Mtn Saver
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Post by Rocky Mtn Saver on Oct 8, 2014 8:54:17 GMT -5
Touching your face is a hard habit to break. I know, right?! I went through a phase of getting pink eye several times, and it's really hard not to touch my eye areas and to keep avoiding using things other people would touch. It's really hard, you don't think about stuff like that most of the time. I felt bad for this woman (she's actually a Nurse's Assistant) because she only entered the patient's room twice and still managed to get exposed on the most dangerous of those two trips (dealing with hygiene).
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Rocky Mtn Saver
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Post by Rocky Mtn Saver on Oct 8, 2014 10:27:01 GMT -5
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swamp
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Post by swamp on Oct 8, 2014 11:22:16 GMT -5
Mr. Duncan has died from Ebola
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Oct 8, 2014 11:41:47 GMT -5
Yes, and the, is it 4 or 5, people? who had the closest contact with him at home are coming up on or are at the 8 to 10 day when they may start to show signs of ebola.
The next 10 to 15 days are going to be long and slow as they wait.
That's NOT to mention the next 30 days or so while every one who's had or will have contact with Mr. Duncan or his body - waits.
They aren't out of the woods yet.
I hope that no one else in Dallas developes the disease.
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Rocky Mtn Saver
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Post by Rocky Mtn Saver on Oct 8, 2014 11:53:29 GMT -5
Yes, and the, is it 4 or 5, people? who had the closest contact with him at home are coming up on or are at the 8 to 10 day when they may start to show signs of ebola. The next 10 to 15 days are going to be long and slow as they wait. That's NOT to mention the next 30 days or so while every one who's had or will have contact with Mr. Duncan or his body - waits. They aren't out of the woods yet. I hope that no one else in Dallas developes the disease. They're monitoring 48 people total, I think, and of those 10 are considered to be 'confirmed to have had close contact' with the patient and are the high risk possibilities. The waiting period is between 2 and 21 days for symptoms to appear, with the 8-10 day range being the most common time frame for such symptoms to appear. An outbreak is considered to have been stopped when the last person exits their 21 day waiting period.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 8, 2014 11:58:02 GMT -5
RIP, Mr. Duncan. My condolences to family and friends.
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Rocky Mtn Saver
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Post by Rocky Mtn Saver on Oct 8, 2014 12:03:42 GMT -5
RIP, Mr. Duncan. My condolences to family and friends. And, unfortunately, his family will not be able to do any/most of the common burial rites (either ours here or in his native country), due to his body essentially being at its most highly contagious right now and for days to come.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2014 12:22:41 GMT -5
We're currently running a 60% survival rate among US cases. Three have recovered, two are in hospital. A sixth is in the process of being transported here. I wouldn't be at all surprised if see US mortality rates under 20% as long as we detect it early and no pregnant women are infected. A lot of the folks that you are considering banning are US citizens. Dual US/Liberian citizenship is extremely common. The drugs they used to treat those recovered patients is gone. Mr. Duncan did not get those drugs , they take along time to make, and will not be available again in large quantities for some time. Health care workers will most likely get them first.
"The supply of ZMapp, used to treat the two Americans, three Liberian doctors and a Spanish priest, is now "exhausted," according to San Diego-based Mapp Biopharmaceutical Inc. Tekmira Pharmaceuticals, the British Columbia firm behind TKM-Ebola, has yet to allow the drug to be used to treat the sick." articles.baltimoresun.com/2014-08-26/health/bs-md-fda-experimental-drugs-ebola-20140822_1_experimental-ebola-drugs-ethics-questions-such-drugs
We are going to screen for fevers now though Mr. Duncan had no fever when he entered. I guess that is supposed to be reassuring.
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Rocky Mtn Saver
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Post by Rocky Mtn Saver on Oct 8, 2014 12:44:35 GMT -5
We're currently running a 60% survival rate among US cases. Three have recovered, two are in hospital. A sixth is in the process of being transported here. I wouldn't be at all surprised if see US mortality rates under 20% as long as we detect it early and no pregnant women are infected. A lot of the folks that you are considering banning are US citizens. Dual US/Liberian citizenship is extremely common. The drugs they used to treat those recovered patients is gone. Mr. Duncan did not get those drugs , they take along time to make, and will not be available again in large quantities for some time. Health care workers will most likely get them first.
"The supply of ZMapp, used to treat the two Americans, three Liberian doctors and a Spanish priest, is now "exhausted," according to San Diego-based Mapp Biopharmaceutical Inc. Tekmira Pharmaceuticals, the British Columbia firm behind TKM-Ebola, has yet to allow the drug to be used to treat the sick." articles.baltimoresun.com/2014-08-26/health/bs-md-fda-experimental-drugs-ebola-20140822_1_experimental-ebola-drugs-ethics-questions-such-drugs
There's no real way of knowing at this point if any of those experimental drugs even helped. All they can say about them is that they don't appear to have killed most of the people they were given to. (The Spanish priest received one experimental drug and it did not save his life.) Supportive care is saving lives even in West Africa, and it's still the best means of treatment that we do know actually helps. And supportive care in the US is going to far outweigh what's available there.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Oct 8, 2014 12:49:00 GMT -5
FWIW, when I speculated that our survival rate would likely be much higher, I wasn't thinking about drugs or blood transfusions. I was thinking about A/C.
Controlling the room temperature takes a heck of a load off the patient. It also allows rubber-suited caregivers to work much longer and much smarter.
It's also quite likely that patients diagnosed in the US will generally get care earlier than almost everyone in West Africa.
I wasn't ascribing anything more than a placebo effect to the drugs and blood transfusions.
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Rocky Mtn Saver
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Post by Rocky Mtn Saver on Oct 8, 2014 12:52:10 GMT -5
FWIW, when I speculated that our survival rate would likely be much higher, I wasn't thinking about drugs or blood transfusions. I was thinking about A/C. Controlling the room temperature takes a heck of a load off the patient. It also allows rubber-suited caregivers to work much longer and much smarter. It's also quite likely that patients diagnosed in the US will generally get care earlier than almost everyone in West Africa. I wasn't ascribing anything more than a placebo effect to the drugs and blood transfusions. Air-conditioning was one of the factors specifically named in Nigeria's successful containment of their outbreak. While perhaps not as huge as the impact that sufficient contract tracing or protective equipment had, it was one of the things that helped.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2014 13:16:44 GMT -5
FWIW, when I speculated that our survival rate would likely be much higher, I wasn't thinking about drugs or blood transfusions. I was thinking about A/C. Controlling the room temperature takes a heck of a load off the patient. It also allows rubber-suited caregivers to work much longer and much smarter. It's also quite likely that patients diagnosed in the US will generally get care earlier than almost everyone in West Africa. I wasn't ascribing anything more than a placebo effect to the drugs and blood transfusions. Air-conditioning was one of the factors specifically named in Nigeria's successful containment of their outbreak. While perhaps not as huge as the impact that sufficient contract tracing or protective equipment had, it was one of the things that helped. I have no doubts that supportive care here will have better survival rates. 50% in the best circumstances still isn't that good. chicago.cbslocal.com/2014/08/01/chicago-disease-expert-emory-prepared-to-treat-returning-ebola-victims/
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Miss Tequila
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Post by Miss Tequila on Oct 8, 2014 13:20:55 GMT -5
I'm actually not sad that he died. If he lived I would be petrified that many others like him would lie to gain entry to our health care system. I am still angry that he put American citizens at risk.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Oct 8, 2014 13:21:19 GMT -5
I wonder if they are working on a faster way to determine if someone has the virus. So far it sounds like they aren't doing blood tests to check for the virus until someone has symptoms. I wonder if they can test (with accuracy) before someone shows symptoms. I also wonder if some people get the virus but their immune system manages to squelch it without ever developing symptoms (ie within a few days of being infected).
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Rocky Mtn Saver
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Post by Rocky Mtn Saver on Oct 8, 2014 13:25:49 GMT -5
I'm actually not sad that he died. If he lived I would be petrified that many others like him would lie to gain entry to our health care system. I am still angry that he put American citizens at risk. His girlfriend said that he truly believed he did not have the virus. He apologized to her, she said, saying that he would not have put 'the love of his life' in danger if he'd known. Given that he was hugging and kissing his grandchildren as well, I do believe that for whatever reason (ignorance or denial), he truly didn't believe he was a danger. The taxi driver said that both he and Duncan were told the sick woman did not have Ebola and was instead suffering a miscarriage. www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/she-was-helpless-taxi-driver-describes-ebola-patients-fateful-ride-n217011Grugbaye said Williams was bleeding from her mouth, but he was told she bit her tongue and was having a miscarriage, and was reassured that she did not have Ebola. “She was helpless. She, she was not able to walk by herself,” he said. Williams’ family and the others caring for her assisted her. He believes Duncan sat in front with him when they left but was in the back on return with the pregnant patient, named in some reports as Marthalene.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2014 13:25:51 GMT -5
I'm actually not sad that he died. If he lived I would be petrified that many others like him would lie to gain entry to our health care system. I am still angry that he put American citizens at risk. I don't think he even knew he was ill when he got here. Big problem.
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Rocky Mtn Saver
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Post by Rocky Mtn Saver on Oct 8, 2014 13:29:24 GMT -5
I wonder if they are working on a faster way to determine if someone has the virus. So far it sounds like they aren't doing blood tests to check for the virus until someone has symptoms. I wonder if they can test (with accuracy) before someone shows symptoms. I also wonder if some people get the virus but their immune system manages to squelch it without ever developing symptoms (ie within a few days of being infected). It's not as easy or definitive as it sounds, I guess. I was reading about this here: www.livescience.com/48141-how-doctors-test-for-ebola.htmlThe most accurate of these is likely the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test, a technique that looks for genetic material from the virus and creates enough copies of it that it can be detected, Hirsch said. "PCR is a really definitive test," Hirsch said. It can pick up very small amounts of the virus.
However, this test can be negative during the first three days an infected person has symptoms, said Dr. Sandro Cinti, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of Michigan Hospital System/Ann Arbor VA Health System.
"Somebody could be in the hospital for three to five days before a diagnosis [of Ebola] is confirmed," Cinti told Live Science. "The important thing is keeping the patient isolated until you can get to a diagnosis." Meanwhile, doctors will be running tests to rule out other diseases, such as malaria, which can be detected more quickly than Ebola, he said.Another test for Ebola looks for antibodies produced by the body's immune system in response to the virus. Known as the antigen-capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), this test can take even longer than three days to give a positive result for an infected person, Cinti said. And antibodies can also be detected after a patient recovers, he added.
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Miss Tequila
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Post by Miss Tequila on Oct 8, 2014 13:41:30 GMT -5
I'm actually not sad that he died. If he lived I would be petrified that many others like him would lie to gain entry to our health care system. I am still angry that he put American citizens at risk. I don't think he even knew he was ill when he got here. Big problem.
But he had to know he was at risk. He helped a woman with Ebola that day before she died. Any idiot knows that puts you at major risk.
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swamp
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THEY’RE EATING THE DOGS!!!!!!!
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Post by swamp on Oct 8, 2014 13:43:11 GMT -5
I don't think he even knew he was ill when he got here. Big problem.
But he had to know he was at risk. He helped a woman with Ebola that day before she died. Any idiot knows that puts you at major risk. he wasn't told she had ebola. he was told she was miscarrying.
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Rocky Mtn Saver
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Post by Rocky Mtn Saver on Oct 8, 2014 13:45:11 GMT -5
I don't think he even knew he was ill when he got here. Big problem.
But he had to know he was at risk. He helped a woman with Ebola that day before she died. Any idiot knows that puts you at major risk. The article I quoted above from the taxi driver that day said that they were told the woman was suffering a miscarriage (she was 6-7 months along) and had bitten her tongue. Should perhaps he have thought more about it? Perhaps, but we'll never know. But why would he come to marry a woman and play with her grandchildren if he thought he was at risk of giving them all a terrible disease? This is not the actions of someone calculating.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 8, 2014 14:09:23 GMT -5
I don't think he even knew he was ill when he got here. Big problem.
But he had to know he was at risk. He helped a woman with Ebola that day before she died. Any idiot knows that puts you at major risk. He didn't know she had Ebola, MT.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 8, 2014 14:12:05 GMT -5
The value of better nutrition in this country leading to stronger, more resistant immune systems is another positive thing to consider should exposure occur. Our immune systems have more ammo to fight with than those of most people in West Africa. We start out with a leg up.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 8, 2014 14:56:49 GMT -5
i have something more important to consider. the average gestation for this disease is 8 days. it has been 8 days since this guy came down with symptoms. any new cases? From what's been released so far, none of the contacts have yet exhibited symptoms. They've got a while to go, though, before they're in the clear. The fact that Mr. Duncan is now considered critical is no surprise. This stuff is nasty. Fortunately, it's not easy to catch! 12 days now. any new cases?
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Rocky Mtn Saver
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Post by Rocky Mtn Saver on Oct 8, 2014 15:08:52 GMT -5
From what's been released so far, none of the contacts have yet exhibited symptoms. They've got a while to go, though, before they're in the clear. The fact that Mr. Duncan is now considered critical is no surprise. This stuff is nasty. Fortunately, it's not easy to catch! 12 days now. any new cases? Not in the monitored people, I believe. One person walked into a clinic in Frisco TX today with possible symptoms, though. He/she is supposedly a sheriff's office worker who was in the apartment at one point. Nothing has been confirmed, but they're treating it as a possible infection. ETA: Never mind. The deputee doesn't actually have Ebola-like symptoms (stomach pain and fatigue) but the situation is being treated with 'an abundance of caution' although it's incredibly unlikely he has the virus.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 8, 2014 15:49:59 GMT -5
Not that I've read about, djAdvocate. So far, so good, I guess.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 8, 2014 16:29:13 GMT -5
Not that I've read about, djAdvocate. So far, so good, I guess. so, what will happen if we go 21 days without anyone else catching it? back to Benghazi and killer bees?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 8, 2014 16:34:41 GMT -5
Nigeria had 60%. i am sure we can do better.
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Rocky Mtn Saver
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Post by Rocky Mtn Saver on Oct 8, 2014 16:44:23 GMT -5
Well, so far, the US has experienced a survivial rate of 6/7 or 7/8 (I don't recall exactly how many patients have been treated?) What's the math on that, 85% survival?
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 8, 2014 16:54:22 GMT -5
Not that I've read about, djAdvocate. So far, so good, I guess. so, what will happen if we go 21 days without anyone else catching it? back to Benghazi and killer bees? LOL! I'm sure somebody, somewhere will come up with something to keep us all amused, bemused, or abused - whichever the individual involved prefers!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 8, 2014 17:24:04 GMT -5
Well, so far, the US has experienced a survivial rate of 6/7 or 7/8 (I don't recall exactly how many patients have been treated?) What's the math on that, 85% survival? approximately.
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