MMXV1-ALPHA POSSIBILITY OF SUPER BLACK SWAN X PROBABILITY

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Aug 22, 2014 0:01:46 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Oh, and we can't forget how it's actually a global conflict that is causing this international depression....

Putin's actions are starting to make lots of sense....We can't forget Putin wants control. No better way to assert control both foreign, and domestic.

Destabilize, that is...

I am not afraid': Tens of thousands march in Moscow to protest killing of prominent Putin rival

[bimetalaupt]

A++++,

What more can we say: BOND BULL IS FULL OF NEW "TEST-TOST-TA-RAGE": HE ENJOYED THE TWO DAY KNAP!!!!

I DO NOT SEE A SHORTAGE OF BOND BUYERS:OK YOU HAVE TO SAVE 200% THE AMOUNT YOUR FATHER HAD TO SAVE TO RETIRE!! 

CORRELATION OF MONEY TOTAL SUPPLY(M3) TO INTEREST (AKA 10 YEAR T-NOTES) IS NEGATIVE (-81.821285582246%). 

 (PER LATEST MMXVI-ALPHA- BLACK SWAN STUDY )

Treasury Yield 30 Years (^TYX) ...2.72............................. Down 0.08(2.86%) 2:59PM EDT
Prev Close:................................2.80
Open:.......................................2.76

Day's Range:.............................2.72 - 2.77
52wk Range:............................2.23 - 3.73

CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No (^TNX) 2.13 .....................Down 0.07(3.14%) 2:59PM EDT

Prev Close:..........................................................2.19
Open:.................................................................2.16
Day's Range:.......................................................2.12 - 2.16
52wk Range:.......................................................1.65 - 2.81

AS YOU MAY KNOW BOND YIELDS IN GERMANY ARE ALMOST ZERO : THE LATEST MODEL PROJECTS DEEPER DEPRESSION WORLD WIDE.

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

LAST FRIDAY'S MMXVI-ALPHA RUN ON BIG IRON IN MIDLAND,TX:

alpha Black Swan event study
STRESS TEST STUDY 03/06/15
RIDK.................................................................. 5863.1175
15 MONTH DJIA PROJECTION............................... 22182.1251684186
UPSIDE................................................................ 4186.40516841861
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK.................................................... 71.4023754158%
djia risk/return........................................................... 1.4005136302215
Highest risk DJIA.................................................. 16319.0076684186
PROF/LOSS PER$1.00................................................. -$0.28598

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

, So you pay me to lend me money is the "in" thing in Europe these days, eh? I guess that will work for a year...

So is this the part when Europe starts paying back those USD they were lent after the crisis? I'll give you 80 cents and you can give me a dollar so you can have some bonds that actually pay interest...

God bless,

Is China’s 1929 moment coming?

[bimetalaupt]

From 3/20/2015

RIDK is up for the week reflecting the higher price of growth and rise in the value of the $$$$$$$$$. Possible increase in DJIA reflects AAPL and it BETA 0.96.   T has a beta of 0.33.  This will increase SD for DJIA to 23.3896757635%.

Current ERP for the DJIA is 4.904000000000% or hold.

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

alpha Black Swan event study
STRESS TEST STUDY 03/20/15
RIDK.................................................................... 5986.801875
15 MONTH DJIA PROJECTION................................. 22367.6485585496
UPSIDE................................................................. 4239.99855854963
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK..................................................... 70.8224298562%
djia risk/return........................................................... 1.4119820543165
Highest risk DJIA.................................................. 16380.8466835496
PROF/LOSS PER$1.00................................................. -$0.29178

[bimetalaupt]

THE UNINTENDED RESULTS FROM INCREASED SAVING

The return to the thought of increased saving as a BLACK SWAN.

AGAIN SAVING RATE IS 5.5%(JANUARY 2015) VS 3.0% FOR JULY 2004.  WITH 70% 0F THE GDP CONSUMER THAT IS 2.5% DROP IN 70& OF THE POTENTIAL SPENDING!!

THAT ,MAKES A 1.75% DROP IN TOTAL GDP.  WHY DECREASE IN SPENDING AND INCREASE IN SAVINGS? REDUCED RETIRMENT SPENDING OR LESS INCOME? NO REAL INCREASE IN M3 INVESTMENT.  M3 GROW AT 4.0% FOR THE MARCH 22,2015 REPORT!!!TIS IS REDUCTION IN SAVING FROM 9% IN THE SAME MONTH IN 2014.  Last M2 (SAVING ACOUNT) UP 8.9% FOR 3 MONTHS ENDING FEB 2015.

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

[bimetalaupt]

May 20, 2012 at 2:00pm

Quote Edit like FROM SUPER FED WATCH

.

Post by bimetalaupt on May 20, 2012 at 2:00pm

THIS IS A REAL PARADOX AS I JUST CAME BACK FROM THE STORE WHERE I BOUGHT BIRD SEED AND COCONUT FIBRE FOR MY BIRDIES.. OK I SPENT $7.00 FOR THE YEARLY RETURN OF A PAIR.. HE HAS LONGER TAIL AND A RED HEAD..SHE IS A BIT FULLER AND DULL.. I CALL THEM FRED AND FREDELL. DID I SAVE MONEY OR WHAT..NO I INCREASED THE ECONOMY BY $49.00. That was Fred.. math...$7.00 * multiplyer of 7 = $49.00 Now for 7 chicks from 7 eggs.. Fredell do your thing!!!

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt
Wait, Is Saving Good or Bad? The Paradox of Thrift
E. Katarina Vermann, Research Associate
“[Saving] is a paradox because in kindergarten we are all taught that thrift is always a good thing.”1—Paul A. Samuelson, first American to win the Nobel Prize in Economics (1970)
People save for various reasons. Some save with a specific purchase in mind, such as cosmetic surgery or a Porsche, while others save just to have more money. Economists say that individuals save to buy durable goods and/or accumulate wealth to maintain a certain lifestyle during retirement or in times of financial uncertainty. These reasons all confer benefits to a saver. In the near term, the saver can finally buy the latest and greatest gadget, and in the long term, the saver can be more financially secure during retirement or unplanned unemployment.
Normally, personal saving declines during recessions because people want to maintain their existing level of consumption. During the Great Recession, though, saving increased. The chart shows the personal saving rate, the year-over-year growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP), and recession periods from 2000 to 2011. Before the Great Recession, the average saving rate for the typical American household was 2.9 percent. Since the recession started in 2007, the average saving rate has risen to 5.0 percent. This increase was largely driven by uncertainty about future employment, efforts to reduce debt, and wide fluctuations in stock and housing prices. Although this increase in saving benefits individuals who save more, some economists argue the dramatic change in saving behavior is detrimental to the overall economy. Given the benefits to individuals, how could saving harm the economy?
John Maynard Keynes, who published his influential work, The General Theory of Employ­ment, Interest, and Money, in 1936, noted saving can ultimately be detrimental to the economy because of the paradox of thrift. This theory argues that if everyone individually cuts spending to increase saving, aggregate saving will eventually fall because one person’s spending is someone else’s income. Because increased saving, by definition, decreases current consumption, it stifles demand.
A simple example can illustrate this paradox. Let’s assume I want a new computer, so I start saving an extra $100 each month that I would otherwise spend going out to eat. By choosing not to spend that $100, I deny the wait staff at my favorite restaurants some work hours and tips (i.e., some portion of their income). As a result, these workers also have to reduce their consumption because they are earning less. If society (as opposed to an individual as in our example) follows this saving pattern, this snowball (or Keynesian multiplier) effect could ultimately lead to decreased consumer spending and lower income for everyone. Consequently, Keynes argued, output would decrease and, therefore, limit economic growth/recovery until, of course, I bought my new computer with the money that I’ve saved.
In the Great Recession, the increase in the number of adult children (25 to 29 years of age) living with their parents is also a good example of the paradox of thrift. According to the Census Bureau’s “Families and Living Arrangements” dataset, the percentage of 25- to 29-year-olds living with their parents increased from 14 percent in 2005 to 19 percent in 2011.2 This arrangement allows them to save money on rent/mortgages, utilities, cable, and furniture. However, because the addition of just one new household contributes an estimated $145,000 to the economy when one factors in multiplier effects,3 the rise in the number of twentysomethings living with their parents could have deprived the economy of up to $25 billion per year during this period. Even if this is accurate, it’s a very small share of a $15.3 trillion economy. In the short run, then, some could argue that this choice by young adults to save slows not only the housing market, but also the retail, construction, and manufacturing industries.
These two examples illustrate that saving can have unintended consequences because one person’s consumption is another person’s income. During recessions, decreases in consumption could inhibit economic recovery. However, in the long run, the accumulated money from individual savers is available for capital investment, a situation where businesses borrow to purchase capital (e.g., machinery and technology). Thus, an increase in the saving rate increases capital investment (e.g., investment in machinery for production). Such increases in capital stock ultimately lead to higher levels of business productivity and growth. Because economists are largely concerned with long-run growth and economic theory notes the positive aspects of increased saving, the paradox of thrift remains a controversial concept. So ultimately, it is OK to save for that big purchase since future consumption benefits both you and society.


Attachments:


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[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Savings... Short term pain - long term gain! Just like gas money going into paying off debt.

Talk about unintended consequences? Europe is in deep doo-doo..

No Risk Too Big as Traders Plot Escape From Negative Yields

In the negative-yield vortex that is the European bond market, investors are discovering just what lengths they’re willing to go to generate returns.
Norway’s $870 billion sovereign wealth fund said this month that it added Nigeria and lifted its share of lower-rated company debt to the highest since at least 2006. Allianz SE, Europe’s biggest insurer, is shifting from German bunds to bulk up on mortgages. JPMorgan Asset Management is buying speculative-grade corporate debt to boost returns.

With the European Central Bank’s fight against deflation pushing yields on almost a third of the euro area’s $6.26 trillion of government bonds below zero, even the most risk-averse investors are taking chances on assets and regions that few would have considered just months ago. That’s exposing more clients to the inevitable trade-off that comes with the lure of higher returns: the likelihood of deeper losses.
“We are wandering into uncharted territory that’s subject to uncertainty and mistakes,” said Erik Weisman, a Boston-based money manager at MFS Investment Management, which oversees $430 billion globally. He’s buying debt with longer maturities and increasing his allocation of top-quality government holdings to Australia and New Zealand, which have some of the highest yields in the developed world.

[bimetalaupt]

Wait, Is Saving Good or Bad? The Paradox of Thrift

Saving rate for February 2015 was reported yesterday AT 5.8%: UP FROM 5.5 FOR January!

BUT M3 FOR  YEAR OVER YEAR WAS DOWN TO 3.8%.  THAT IS A REAL PARADLOX.

NOW BONDS ARE ON FIRE: TEN YEAR T-BOND RATE DOWN 1.9340% OFF 0.0290 (-1.48%).

Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) -NYSE
76.78................ Up 0.88..............UP(1.16%) 4:01

GDP FOR Q1-2015 IS PROJECTED DOWN 1.5% FOR THE USA.  WE ARE HEADED DOWN: HOW CAN INTEREST RATES BE DATA DEPENDENT AND RISE?

DJIA CRASHED IN LATE TRADING DOWN 200 POINT FROM LAST CLOSS.

Thoughts!!

"FrediMac and Fanimayn " are insolvent!

The USA stock markets are overpriced by 30% per MMXV!-ALPHA.

BONDS ARE ALSO FLASHING A WARNING:WE COULD SEE TEN YEAR T-BONDS AT 1%: BEARISH!!

RUSSIA IS A BLACK SWAN!!

THE BAD BANKS IN THE EU ARE UNDERFUNDED AND/OR INSOLVENT

Just a thought and five BLACK SWANS,

BiMetalAuPt  

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Savings aren't just good.... There grrr-r-reat! The higher the savings rate, the stronger the consumer. Like we talked about with China. The Chinese people will make it through the CPC collapse because they have a great savings rate.

Looks like the US is becoming a nation of savers and the economy is still made up of consumer spending... How!?! How can this be!?!?

Did you see the margin debt in Shanghai? The total dollar amount is approaching what is on the NYSE! Yes, swan. China is going to bring down the entire eastern hemisphere!

The Islamic State is about to take down Damascus, Africa is about to get two more Islamic State factions, and Europe has to choose between saving Greece or the Ukraine. And then there will be a war to fight...

Thank God for North America!

[bimetalaupt]

A++++,

ARE OUR MATH MODELS GOOD: NO.. BUT CAN WE DEVISE THEM GOOD ENOUGH TO CORRECTLY INVEST FOR THE LONG TERM?

LOOKING INTO WHAT BEER DEVELOPED AS TO 100% ALPHA WITH ASSUMING 100% OF THE RISK FOR CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT. THIS WORKS UNTILL IT DOES NOT WORK: THIS IS LIKE THE FEDERAL RESERVE MODEL FOR MONETARY PUTS ON THE ECONOMY.. WHY HAS THE MODEL FAILED FOR 7 TO 9 YEARS? IT FAILED IN 2005 BUT WE DID NOT KNOW IT UNTIL 2008!! SIMPLY STATED THE MODEL IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO CATCH THE MAJOR PROBLEM WITH SUB-PRIME LENDING ON REALESTATE!!!

THE INCREASE IN SAVING FROM 2.5% TO 5.8% SAID IT ALL: AMERICANS HAVE LOST FAITH IN THE FEDERAL RESERVE: HOW DO YOU PUT A NUMBER ON FAITH? T-Bonds are close enough to KASH for the WORLD: Low risk better then high risk stocks or options on stock?

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

,

Yes, I do believe after reading your printouts for years now that there is a way to infer enough information to invest in a long term manner from a math model.

Yes, the model of thinking debt can be sold as debt is an unreadable situation because we are taking about getting into an infinite amount of negative integers. It's the same situation in China right now, and my gut is telling me that China's announcement today about short selling is something akin to throwing in the towel. Like, they literally just said we are going to start shorting the market, exactly like the big banks did in the US in 2007-2008.

If the increased savings rate is the same as faith in the FED, then let's see that rate back to 10%! Putting you financial future in the hands of the state that has to have a blanket policy for hundred of millions of people is the same as suicide.

Going forward? Are the big banks going to be able to short China? Might get though for the consumer again here for a while. We have seen bond ETF's soar on days like today. So embrace the volatility with a bond ETF, proceeds of which go into dividend paying socks/a good fund to compound for the long term?

God bless,

[bimetalaupt]

Germany Personal Savings 1960-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

Personal Savings in Germany increased to 9.80 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014 from 9.20 percent in the third quarter of 2014. Personal Savings in Germany averaged 12.15 percent from 1960 until 2014, reaching an all time high of 17.30 percent in the second quarter of 1975 and a record low of 7.80 percent in the first quarter of 1960. Personal Savings in Germany is reported by the Deutsche Bundesbank

Germany Interest Rate 1998-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 0.05 percent. Interest Rate in the Euro Area averaged 2.35 percent from 1998 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 4.75 percent in October of 2000 and a record low of 0.05 percent in September of 2014. Interest Rate in the Euro Area is reported by the European Central Bank

KASH IS KING:

BiMetalAuPt

[bimetalaupt]

P.S.
COUNTRIES Loading..Personal Savings..Reference..Previous..Highest..Lowest

Unit



Australia 9.00 Nov/14 9.30 20.60 -0.70 percent [+]
Canada 40584.00 Nov/14 41108.00 67160.00 1200.00 CAD Million [+]
China 0.35 Dec/15 0.35 3.15 0.35 percent [+]
Euro Area 13.09 Aug/14 13.03 15.58 12.80 percent [+]
France 52074.00 Nov/14 53144.00 55320.00 430.00 EUR Million [+]
Germany 9.80 Nov/14 9.20 17.30 7.80 percent [+]
India 22124.14 Jun/13 20547.37 22124.14 6.34 INR Billion [+]
Italy 1.35 Feb/15 1.28 8.57 0.94 percent [+]
Japan 21.10 Feb/15 -2.00 48.30 -9.90 percent [+]
Mexico 19.90 Dec/13 22.00 25.70 19.90 percent [+]
Netherlands 72.00 Feb/15 2764.00 4293.00 -3048.00 EUR Million [+]
South Korea 517842.10 Jun/14 492830.30 517842.10 494.00 KRW Billion [+]
Spain 62852.00 Nov/14 54251.00 64635.00 22254.00 EUR Million [+]
Switzerland 95684.77 Jun/12 96029.41 96029.41 39871.15 CHF Million [+]
United Kingdom 5.90 Nov/14 5.80 14.00 -0.90 percent [+]
United States 5.80 Feb/15 5.50 14.60 0.80 percent [+]
+

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Apr 17, 2015 10:49:48 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Germany Personal Savings 1960-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

Personal Savings in Germany increased to 9.80 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014 from 9.20 percent in the third quarter of 2014. Personal Savings in Germany averaged 12.15 percent from 1960 until 2014, reaching an all time high of 17.30 percent in the second quarter of 1975 and a record low of 7.80 percent in the first quarter of 1960. Personal Savings in Germany is reported by the Deutsche Bundesbank

Germany Interest Rate 1998-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 0.05 percent. Interest Rate in the Euro Area averaged 2.35 percent from 1998 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 4.75 percent in October of 2000 and a record low of 0.05 percent in September of 2014. Interest Rate in the Euro Area is reported by the European Central Bank

KASH IS KING:

BiMetalAuPt

Yes it is! Time and again it's been proven that a good savings rate translates into a healthy economy that can take a hit and keep rolling.

And on the other side of the coin...

Tsipras to Seize Public-Sector Funds to Keep Greece Afloat

[bimetalaupt]

Money Supply is on the rise....M3 increased from 3.1% year over year to 3.8% gain or Delta of +0.7%...

This week output without use of any government average correction for season....

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

MMXVI-ALPHA Black Swan event study
STRESS TEST STUDY 04/24/15
RIDK.............................................. 5942.26125  ( risk)
15 MONTH DJIA PROJECTION................ 22300.7601965031
UPSIDE ................................................4220.62019650306
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK.................................. 71.0271733089%
djia risk/return.......................................... 1.4079118644514
Highest risk DJIA................................. 16358.4989465031
PROF/LOSS PER$1.00....................................... -$0.28973

[bimetalaupt]

THE NYSE ASSETS ARE AT HIGH RISK WITH THE DEBT TOO HIGH AND INCOME TOO LOW. EVERY ONE DOLLAR OF INVESTMENT HAS A TOTAL RISK OF $0.28930 PER THE ALPHA VERSION OF MMXVI-ALPHA BLACK SWAN STUDY....

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

MMXVI-ALPHA Black Swan event study
STRESS TEST STUDY 05/04/15
RIDK........................................................... 5933.13
15 MONTH DJIA PROJECTION.........................22287.0583717294
UPSIDE........................................................ 4216.65837172942
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK........................................... 71.0697114631%
djia risk/return .................................................1.4070691711187
Highest risk DJIA.......................................... 16353.9283717294
PROF/LOSS PER$1.00....................................... -$0.28930

[bimetalaupt]

May 4, 2015 21:09:19 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

THE NYSE ASSETS ARE AT HIGH RISK WITH THE DEBT TOO HIGH AND INCOME TOO LOW. EVERY ONE DOLLAR OF INVESTMENT HAS A TOTAL RISK OF $0.28930 PER THE ALPHA VERSION OF MMXVI-ALPHA BLACK SWAN STUDY....

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

MMXVI-ALPHA Black Swan event study
STRESS TEST STUDY 05/04/15
RIDK........................................................... 5933.13
15 MONTH DJIA PROJECTION.........................22287.0583717294
UPSIDE........................................................ 4216.65837172942
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK........................................... 71.0697114631%
djia risk/return .................................................1.4070691711187
Highest risk DJIA.......................................... 16353.9283717294
PROF/LOSS PER$1.00....................................... -$0.28930

DJIA is up as is M1 and M2 so why are good jobs hard to find as is the good life with a BS or MBA

Remember SFRB study of economic activity vs. M1 that is now up 8.1% year over year?

Theory was M1 target = GDP Target + Inflation

Current Numbers for Q1  GDP -0.8%

Current inflation  for Q1 = target q1 = 0.5%

Total = -0.3*4 = -1.2%  Not close to the model ( SFFRB)

Current MMXVI model has a per $ risk djia of $0.29

Just a thought

BiMetalAuPt

MMXVI-ALPHA Black Swan event study
STRESS TEST STUDY 05/14/15
RIDK................................................................... 6103.605
15 MONTH DJIA PROJECTION................................ 22543.4762808697
UPSIDE ...............................................................4291.23628086971
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK............................................... 70.3065857124%
djia risk/return ......................................................1.4223418615306
Highest risk DJIA ..............................................16439.8712808697
PROF/LOSS PER$1.00.............................................. -$0.29693

[bimetalaupt]

May 14, 2015 16:09:03 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

May 4, 2015 21:09:19 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

THE NYSE ASSETS ARE AT HIGH RISK WITH THE DEBT TOO HIGH AND INCOME TOO LOW. EVERY ONE DOLLAR OF INVESTMENT HAS A TOTAL RISK OF $0.28930 PER THE ALPHA VERSION OF MMXVI-ALPHA BLACK SWAN STUDY....

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

MMXVI-ALPHA Black Swan event study
STRESS TEST STUDY 05/04/15
RIDK........................................................... 5933.13
15 MONTH DJIA PROJECTION.........................22287.0583717294
UPSIDE........................................................ 4216.65837172942
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK........................................... 71.0697114631%
djia risk/return .................................................1.4070691711187
Highest risk DJIA.......................................... 16353.9283717294
PROF/LOSS PER$1.00....................................... -$0.28930

DJIA is up as is M1 and M2 so why are good jobs hard to find as is the good life with a BS or MBA

Remember SFRB study of economic activity vs. M1 that is now up 8.1% year over year?

Theory was M1 target = GDP Target + Inflation

Current Numbers for Q1  GDP -0.8%

Current inflation  for Q1 = target q1 = 0.5%

Total = -0.3*4 = -1.2%  Not close to the model ( SFFRB)

Current MMXVI model has a per $ risk djia of $0.29693

Just a thought

BiMetalAuPt

MMXVI-ALPHA Black Swan event study
STRESS TEST STUDY 05/14/15
RIDK................................................................... 6103.605
15 MONTH DJIA PROJECTION................................ 22543.4762808697
UPSIDE ...............................................................4291.23628086971
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK............................................... 70.3065857124%
djia risk/return ......................................................1.4223418615306
Highest risk DJIA ..............................................16439.8712808697
PROF/LOSS PER$1.00.............................................. -$0.29693

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I would say good jobs are hard to find because we are going through a foundational rebuilding of the economy. We are talking about 40 yrs in which expanding profits meant cheap wages else where and credit building to fill the gap of a lifestyle that couldn't be afforded.

I'm pretty sure - no - I know for a fact, that you and I, and a couple others have been saying the entire time this slow a steady recovery has been going on that there is NO boom coming. So once again, there is NO boom coming. Regardless of political policy, there is NO boom coming. It's the paradox of savings!

On the bright side, slow and steady wins the race.

Oh, and that whole lower oil prices isn't bad for the economy it a tax break thing really showed a whos, who in economics, eh?

A $150 Billion Income Windfall Has Disappeared Under the Mattress

One of the oft-repeated tropes during the bear market in oil last year was that lower fuel costs would serve as a "tax cut for the consumer" that would boost spending elsewhere....

...And yet a funny thing seems to have happened to all that fuel savings on the way to the mall: It disappeared. While some of the companies mentioned above have shown strong sales growth, results are out from 66 of 84 companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index that rely on discretionary consumer spending and sales for the group are up just 0.5 percent. They have trailed analysts' estimates by 1.7 percent.   

"Oil prices remain more than 40% below the highs reached in mid-2014, which our economists equate to a roughly $150 billion 'tax cut' to consumers," Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin and colleagues wrote in a report this morning. "However, most consumers have yet to increase spending despite this income windfall."

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

.....

Nassim Taleb’s ‘Black Swan’ fund made $1 billion this week

And this guy doesn't even have analytics.

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 30, 2015 19:14:24 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

.....

Nassim Taleb’s ‘Black Swan’ fund made $1 billion this week

And this guy doesn't even have analytics.

A+++++;
Call me Bob:I have invested at the bottom for 50+ years and the market is working very well if not great for me. Yes I have made money but only when I sell.  Investments now are  only the house money. Most of my profits are now spent or invested in art, Education and family.  I was under water with JNJ for about ?? years when  the Tylenol problem hit but low prices  improved my return.

A recession is a bad thing to waist.

God Bless you and yours,
Bruce

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

,

Hey bob.

This guy is talking another big swan.. October is on its way...

Kickstarter for MMX and then we sell analytics for added cash flow. No cash outta pocket and we make extra cheddar just keeping on keeping on??

God bless,

[bimetalaupt]

A+++++.,
WE DID WELL WITH THE OCT 15,2014 BUYING. BOB IS A FUN LOVING GUY WHO ONLY BUYS STOCK AT THE TOP: NEVER SELLS.  ODDS ARE BETTER WITH DIVIDEND REINVESTING. LOVE MY JNJ BUT  IT IS ALL MONEY : I DO HATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT. WELL: HOW ARE WE TO DECIDED ON THE FUTURE IF THE POWERLESS TALKING HEADS ARE ABOUT AS BAD AS THE ECONOMIST WORKING FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE?

I THINK I AM GOING TO BATTLESHIP X ( BB-61) FOR UNDERSTANDING OF THE WORLD TODAY. JUST LIKE EXPERT 50/50 YOU NEED AN BALANCE OF BOTH POWER TO KILL AND ABILITY TO TAKE A ROUND.

CURRENT HOLDINGS EXPERT 50/50 ONLY
DUK
SE
HD
C
GE
TXN
IBM
IYZ
LOW
T-BONDS 7% UP TO 7.5%
SCHWAB MONEY MARKET
Just a thought about Bob,
Bruce

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Bruce of Bruce, or was that Bank of Bruce? ,

WE DID WELL WITH THE OCT 15,2014 BUYING.

Even better with the Feb 2014 buying. Deals were good in Sept-Oct of '08, even better in Feb-March of '09. But BOB buying at the top? Or the top of the bottom and the bottom of the top? 50/50, right?

Market timing model: Go 100% cash

Faber tweeted that the model recommended by his “old market-timing paper ends month 100% in cash & bonds.” This has happened less than 7% of the time in the past, he said. “Last time? 2008/2009.”

Apparently this Faber guy likes to call out Wall street and the likes as well...

ODDS ARE BETTER WITH DIVIDEND REINVESTING

Agreed!

I DO HATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT. WELL: HOW ARE WE TO DECIDED ON THE FUTURE IF THE POWERLESS TALKING HEADS ARE ABOUT AS BAD AS THE ECONOMIST WORKING FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE?

Whos's talking wealth management? AKA customer service. Our end will be analytics, just getting paid to do what we already do in other words. For the customer service - I know this superstar Finical Services Manager that we can poach. I helped train her, so it should be easy. I know that she would love to work with her family and I know she already could run the entire branch/train new people if she wanted..

I DO know that how we decide the future is by blazing a new path. The more legitimate alternative news that gets out, the more that Bull Street will have to listen. I do know that battleship you're talking about is the internet because it has been supplied by the military. LOOK AT HOW MUCH WE HAVE ALL LEARNED!!! KNOWLEDGE IS POWER!

I do know that China will need air support though...

God bless,

&Co.

[bimetalaupt]

Hate wealth Management!! but risk is less today then post in July etc.

MMXVI-ALPHA Black Swan event study
STRESS TEST STUDY 10/06/15
RIDK................................................. 4732.933125
15 MONTH DJIA PROJECTION............... 20518.4097782638
UPSIDE .............................................3728.21977826379
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK.................................. 78.7718668276%
djia risk/return ......................................1.2694887658163
Highest risk DJIA ...............................15785.4766532638
PROF/LOSS PER$1.00............................. -$0.21228

CORRELATION OF DJIA WITH M3...................99.031482143404%

Just a thought,
 BiMetalAuPt

Current buy list:JNJ, HD, LOW,DUK
LONG TERM BUY LIST ( 10 YEAR+)XOM, IBM, TXN

[bimetalaupt]

well : what more may I say:risk for the DJIA is up with the  Dow Jones industral average(stock market).the math model suggest the market could correct 23.438%.
Two factors I want to project about this model
Over the years it has been found the greatest risk is to sell: esp when the stock market is in a sell off. Did you read my BOB item?
The stock market has a way of knowing what things are worth: efferent market hypothesis.
The expert 50/50 has had  great run with very little standard deviation!! Yes, over the years: I have made as much money on bonds as stock!
Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt
PS: Have a great week-end
MMXVI-ALPHA Black Swan event study
STRESS TEST STUDY 10/09/15
RIDK....................................................... 5008.839375
15 MONTH DJIA PROJECTION..................... 20919.3328392182
UPSIDE.................................................... 3834.84283921822
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK......................................... 76.5615056126%
djia risk/return............................................. 1.3061394130095
Highest risk DJIA...................................... 15910.4934642182
PROF/LOSS PER$1.00 .....................................-$0.23438

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

, it is so cool that you get to get out wealth management - even though you're great at it!!! Watching the markets all the time making sure you hit those targets that you do... this is retirement?

Now for the fun part. Still get to run the MM because like you said it's accurate. Then when those swans fly on the radar.. we get to go hunting with a cash nuke. IBM, HD, BCE, VZ... Like you said never sell because it's the biggest risk long term on a good dividend paying company.

Haven't had a chance to read the read from bob yet, was thinking about a chemistry problem earlier... Probably get at that in a bit and watch shark tank.

Now for the best part. Bonds are like loans, now you're going to make more money on bonds than you have ever made on stocks!!! Mrs. A++++ aka our future CFO is probably happier to be out of L&M and in training at CCGCO than you are to be out of wealth management..

God bless,

[bimetalaupt]

PS: Have a great week-end

MMXVI-ALPHA Black Swan event study

STRESS TEST STUDY 10/09/15

RIDK....................................................... 5008.839375

15 MONTH DJIA PROJECTION..................... 20919.3328392182

UPSIDE.................................................... 3834.84283921822

DJIA UPSIDE/RISK......................................... 76.5615056126%

djia risk/return............................................. 1.3061394130095

Highest risk DJIA...................................... 15910.4934642182

PROF/LOSS PER$1.00 .....................................-$0.23438


So What has happened?  M3 growth is now 3.4% ! very weak!!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It was, same to you! Rig count increase this last quarter. Repeat of last quarter but in the 1.5% range because summer travel was good because of low gas?

Earnings this quarter are a big one. We see that DOW at 20k call. Have to let the Chinese load up on their CDS... The we see the earnings correction to correlation show from factset??

Guess we'll see.

[bimetalaupt]

Sept 24, 2016 18:44:31 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

It was, same to you! Rig count increase this last quarter. Repeat of last quarter but in the 1.5% range because summer travel was good because of low gas?

Earnings this quarter are a big one. We see that DOW at 20k call. Have to let the Chinese load up on their CDS... The we see the earnings correction to correlation show from factset??

Guess we'll see.

A++++++,
This would have been a cheap year to have gone to Paris.  Problem was Paris,Tx is better know for Salty soups then fancy expensive art or Playel Halls etc. Room rates in Paris,Fr were down large but mostly not taken due  problems with safety issues.  No one I know went to Europe this summer.  Many took "staycations" .

Just a thought, Duke