MMXV1-ALPHA POSSIBILITY OF SUPER BLACK SWAN X PROBABILITY

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Oct 1, 2014 19:52:19 GMT -5 damnotagain said:

seven swans a swimming ... Five golden rings ! 

I wouldn't be counting on that one my friend. The east is set to burn - including Europe. Got to remember a big part of the gold story was that the east was going to rise. People have been plowing into the dollar like crazy, and this next earnings season will still probably be okay. What we are talking about around here has been coming on in waves, and its set to be in full force by the end of next year.

Along with Ebola, swine flu has been killing people again, the bird flu has reemerged in Asia and has spread as far as Russia and Egypt, polio is rampant across the Mid East, and MERS is still infecting people in the mid east - who then travel to places like Austria. Only a fool doesn't see this for what it is; an unprecedented situation.

Putin all but admitted that he's been planning WW3 for a decade, and thanks to his destabilization he's going to get it; just won't be the one he is expecting. As I mentioned before he thinks China has his back - the don't, and it's going to take hundreds of millions of troops to "win" this coming disaster. As I'm sure you already know, dam.

As mentioned, for the first time in modern history a global conflict is causing a depression.. War Severs Ukraine’s Industrial Arteries as Economy Sinks. Mix it all up with the other 3/4 of a mess that the east is in, and you have one spicy meatball! Stay .

[damnotagain]

Morning Aham , you named the seven swans! As far as deflation goes I believe we're in a liquidity trap , war is the only way out.. Great reading. 

As as far as gold goes, always like commodities. Just poking the tiger.

[damnotagain]

"Warning: watch out for Brooklyn JEWISH Blonds in Tight Black Suits: Watch your $$$$$$!"

To funny bimetal , 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Hope the day is going well, dam. Thanks for the complement!

I would have to disagree with you about a liquidity trap though. You lived through one of those in the early 80's already, the way out was to spike interest rates. This time around there is a black hole of debt - thanks to financial wizardry. Just look at the EU, trillions upon trillions have gone into the banking system and they are still headed towards deflation. I like the news this AM.. "ECB holds rates" No shit! They are already at negative rates.

I do agree however that we are heading towards war. A lot of that has to do with the ignorance of human nature, you know; like how the I.S. isn't part of Islam.

Have a good one.

[bimetalaupt]

Just as I was ready to start buying: the Dow Jones Total Market and DJIA GOT HIGHER: LOOKING FOR A 10% DECLINE. ME BAD. 

RIDK........................................ 5253.63
15 MONTH TARGET FOR DJIA.......20361.8809766878
UPSIDE...................................... 3352.19097668777
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK.......................... 63.8071386201%
djia risk/return.................................. 1.5672227616313
Highest risk DJIA........................ 15108.2509766878
PROF/LOSS PER$1.00 .....................ONLY-$0.36193

WELL WE NOW HAVE FIVE BLACK SWANS FLYING IN THE MISSING MAN FORMATION!!': SHOULD WE SEND PUTON A GERT WELL CARD.

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

RIGEROUS INVEST DISTRIBUTED KINETICS.....AKA EXPERT 50/50

correlation m3 to djia..................................... 0.6463396307047
correlationm1 to djia...................................... 0.7810395092843
correlation m2 to djia..................................... 0.7134919397965

THE NEXT DIFFERENCE IS THAT EXPERT 50/50 USES 15 YEAR DATA BASE.
CORRELATION FROM  2008-TODAY.................. 91.0440636931%( ALMOST 7 YEARS)

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I had to bring this comment here since - one again - the global economy is in focus. Geopolitical and socioeconomic issues keeping bond yields in check.

Oct 4, 2014 15:15:46 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

It is amazing how T-Bonds are holding up.  Jessie said the "market is never wrong" : this has been proven time and time again.  Again: this has a ring of worry to it for the world's economic balance.

I was looking at the ECB and the nut that runs it: sure miss the worlds greatest banker: my Father.

I use the worms to test my theory.  The increase in numbers until they reach max population for the space and food supply and then limit the demand on resources by limiting Population development  : looks like the world is there now.

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt 

[bimetalaupt]

WELL, LIKE THE WORMS EATING UP ALL THE BEDDING: THE IRISH EAT UP ALL THE SEED POTATOS. BANKS NEED MORE CAPITAL PER BISIII: THE LIBOR IS DOWN DUE IN PART TO LACK OF DEMANDS FOR LOANS: T-BONDS ARE DOWN AND EQUITY RISK PREMIUM UP!!AND THE NYFRB TRADING DESK DID A REVERSE REPO TODAY!WHY WATCH OUT FOR BROOKLYN JEWISH BLONDS IN  TIGHT LITTLE BLACK SUITS! YES FISCHER

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No (^TNX) -Chicago Options  Watchlist
2.35 Down 0.08(-3.09%) 2:54PM EDT

Treasury Yield 30 Years (^TYX) -Chicago Options  Watchlist
3.06 Down 0.07(2.30%) 2:59PM

NYFRB DID THE REVERSE REPO TODAY AT 0.05% 

Temporary Open Market Operations for October 07, 2014
Last Updated: October 07, 2014 1:17 PM
Number of Operations Today: 1

MARKET CRASHED HEADED TO THAT 10% CORRECTION.

( OK CORRELATION DOES NOT MEAN CAUSATION BUT!!! )

See announcement from September 17, 2014. There were 58 bids submitted and 58 bids accepted in today's operation.
Deal Date: Tuesday, October 07, 2014
Delivery Date: Tuesday, October 07, 2014
Maturity Date: Wednesday, October 08, 2014
Type of Operation1: Reverse Repo
Auction Method: Fixed-Rate
Settlement: Same Day
Term of Operation2: 1 Day
Operation Close Time: 01:15 PM
 Results Amount ($B) Rate (%)

Collateral ....Type....................... Submitted........ Accepted.... Award5........ High....... Low  
..................Treasury................. 184.514........... 184.514......... 0.05.......... N/A....... N/A  
  JUST 8 MORE DAYS BEFORE THE Y-MART SALE ON "RU-SELL-XX " BUYING SEASON!!

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) -DJI  Watchlist
16,719.33 Down 272.58(1.60%) 4:09PM EDT

GOT TO LOVE JNJ,HD AND DUK ON RSI!!!

[bimetalaupt]

RIDK IS DOWN: LESS RISK IN THE MARKET THEN LAST WEEK!

RIDK...................4981.47375

DJIA .............19961.8753685785


UPSIDE...............3242.48536857848

IDE/RISK.................. 65.0908853746%
djia risk/return ...........1.536313408928
Highest risk DJIA........ 14980.4016185785
PROF/LOSS PER$1.00........ -$0.34909

ALSO EQUITY RISK PREIUM IS UP!! NOTE DJTM HAS A RETURN ABOUT 1% HIGHER THEN DJIA.

total sm yield........... 1.78%
M3 growth ...............5.90%
combination.............. 7.68000000000%
erp.......................... 5.330000000000%
After 2 sd+ correction then
SMALL CAPS.............. 10.1757000000%
MAR........................... 9.81210000000%
for DJIA > then DJTM by about 1%
risk/return................. 228.50904460343%
return............................ 8.49%

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Oct 7, 2014 14:35:29 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

WELL, LIKE THE WORMS EATING UP ALL THE BEDDING: THE IRISH EAT UP ALL THE SEED POTATOS. BANKS NEED MORE CAPITAL PER BISIII

To a degree. But the massive drop in German industry over this past while is due to the global conflict that is starting to sink in after the stall. Like how the Ukraine wants new IMF bailout as war squeezes economy. Like how at the start of this year "growth was picking up", and now stories like The case for not panicking over the global slowdown are abound.

Depression caused by a global conflict. Stay

[bimetalaupt]

IT WILL BE INTERESTING ESP WITH THE REVERSE REPO EXICUTION ON OCT 7,2014: IT WAS VERY POOR TIMING TO DO THIS WITH THE STOCK MARKET CRASHING. (imho)

YES, IT WAS A TRUE EXICUTION BUT WE WERE EXPECTING SOMETHING LIKE THAT BEFORE 10/15/2014.

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian stocks fell on Wednesday as worries about waning global growth lifted safe-haven bonds and the yen, while shoving oil prices to their lowest in more than two years.

Government bonds were in big demand as investors wagered global inflation would continue to slow and even put off the day when U.S. interest rates might rise.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting are due later in the session and markets will be acutely sensitive to how the debate between hawks and doves on the committee was playing out.https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-shares-buckle-beneath-global-003401324.html

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Right, like we have been talking about all year. The best time to raise the benchmark will be when demand for bonds is greatest. It will keep the yeild down and since there us a need for quality bonds for funding vehicles a higher benchmark on repo rates will help that cause.

As for the operations today? We have to see a couple more days of 1.5% drops before the market will be crashing, IMO. Earnings season kicks off tomorrow and the US economy has been kicking certain math models in the teeth(not yours). Funding for the run up??

We were talking about what's going on right now in Jan. We are 10 months a head of the curve. 2015 is going to be a wild and crazy year. Did you know that thus lunar eclipse us apparently not even geometrically possible? Math is great and it explained a lot, but the world is careening towards an emotional state.. Just look at his pessimism is setting in in the Chinese real estate market..

The true black swan is these crazy viruses..

God bless,

[bimetalaupt]

quick pick?

RIDK............................. 4949.29875
djia top.........................19914.8321380036
UPSIDE.......................... 3229.76213800359
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK.............. 65.2569646963%
djia risk/return.................... 1.532403483143
Highest risk DJIA............ 14965.5333880036
PROF/LOSS PER$1.00....... -$0.34743

Lost Wages East: stock just starting the 10%: Oct 15, 2014 sales day?

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Could very well be. It will be interesting to see if we hit the 16300 we seen in August. Feb was still the best time to buy this year. The 14k number your model is projecting for a possible loss - as you know - would leave us in 30% correction territory(crash).. What to do, what to do..

[bimetalaupt]

Oct 9, 2014 14:32:29 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Could very well be. It will be interesting to see if we hit the 16300 we seen in August. Feb was still the best time to buy this year. The 14k number your model is projecting for a possible loss - as you know - would leave us in 30% correction territory(crash).. What to do, what to do..

A++++,

KA$$$$SH IS KING!!  

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

What I have been using is the Total Stock market: down more then the DJIA...

Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index
Last: 19965.96 09 Oct 15:09
Change: (-433.38) ..........down   (-2.12%)

DJIA AS A SYSTEM RIDK STANDARD

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) -DJI  Watchlist


16,659.25 (Down 334.97)...............................(-1.97%) 4:20PM EDT

[bimetalaupt]

Oct 7, 2014

ECB Questions New Eurozone Banking Loophole
Central Bank Skeptical About Use of Deferred Tax Assets in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece

 

BRUSSELS—The European Central Bank has raised concerns over legal changes in several countries that allow banks to continue using tax assets to boost their capital buffers, a practice that was meant to be phased out under new European Union rules.

The ECB worries that the changes in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece expose taxpayers in those countries to risks in case the banks run into trouble in coming years. The changes may also reduce pressure on lenders to seek outside capital. That could undermine the effectiveness of a new round of stress tests, whose results will be published later this month, the central bank fears.

“We don’t like it, but there is nothing we can do about it,” an ECB official said about the changed treatment of so-called deferred tax assets.

The ECB’s misgivings are also spelled out in a legal opinion it published last month on a planned law on the treatment of these assets in Portugal, which followed earlier moves by Italy and Spain.

The ECB has yet to correct the lack of TEAR1 capital to the state required by BISIII: there are many banks using loses from the past as capital AIG would love that new capital system but not me.

BANK CAPITAL IN THE PIIGS IS A RUDE JOKE: NO WHERE NEAR THE TEER1 REQUIRED BY BISIII AND FEW COULD PASS THE FEDERAL RESERVE STANDARDS FOR STRESS AS USED T0O JUDGE C,JPM OR YOUR HOME TOWN LOCAL BANK....MANY BANKS ARE INSOLVENT IF YOU MARK TO MARKET THE  GOVERNMENT BONDS:

JUST A THOUGHT,

BiMetalAuPt

When the Spanish law was passed last year, Finance Minister Luis De Guindos said it could lift banks’ capital levels by as much as €30 billion, allowing them to include some 60% of their total deferred tax assets. The country’s largest lender, Banco Santander SA, SAN.MC -0.75% had €21.07 billion in deferred tax assets at the end of 2013, of which €7.9 billion still count toward its core capital. Nationalized Bankia SA BKIA.MC -1.58% was able to include €5.25 billion of its €7.38 billion in deferred tax assets.

Portugal’s largest bank, Banco Comercial Português SA, said last month that the new law on tax credits added an extra €1.9 billion, or 4.05 percentage points, to its core capital ratio. Banco BPI SA, BPI.LB -0.91% the second largest-bank, said its core capital was lifted around €200 million, or 1.25 percentage points.

In its legal opinion, the ECB warned not only about the risk to taxpayers from the new laws. It also said that allowing banks to count the tax claims as capital may stop lenders from seeking new funds from private investors. “The conversion of DTAs into tax credits might reduce the incentive and/or the regulatory need for shareholders to inject fresh capital into credit institutions,” it wrote.

online.wsj.com/articles/ecb-questions-new-eurozone-banking-loophole-1412695517

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Oct 9, 2014 14:54:01 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Oct 9, 2014 14:32:29 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Could very well be. It will be interesting to see if we hit the 16300 we seen in August. Feb was still the best time to buy this year. The 14k number your model is projecting for a possible loss - as you know - would leave us in 30% correction territory(crash).. What to do, what to do..

A++++,

KA$$$$SH IS KING!!  

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

What I have been using is the Total Stock market: down more then the DJIA...

Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index
Last: 19965.96 09 Oct 15:09
Change: (-433.38) ..........down   (-2.12%)

DJIA AS A SYSTEM RIDK STANDARD

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) -DJI  Watchlist


16,659.25 (Down 334.97)...............................(-1.97%) 4:20PM EDT

I hear ya my friend.

I keep forgetting your numbers are based on the total average, it makes more sense though with the 34% number. Should have caught that, my apologies.

With the 10 year yields hitting a sixteen month low, and the oil market saying the same thing - no inflation - the 15th and next spring could be the same sale... If the 10yr goes back to 1.6% the FED could boost rates by 1% next spring and rates would still be under where they were earlier this year.

KASH is KING!

Talk about China's reserves going back to the UST?

Hope you had a good day, God Bless,

[bimetalaupt]

Black Swan event in Canada....

Major event: SOLO Gunman kill at least one in the Capital;

DJIA(-0.67),DJTA down!!!

S&P/TSX 14,359.94  -187.77 (-1.29%)

Just one hell of an ISIS (?) action

God Bless Canada,

BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Thanks for the thoughts !

No info on todays attackers yet, however, two days ago an I.S. supporter killed an RCMP officer and injured another in a hit and run. His passport was confiscated back in July because it was suspected that he was traveling to join the war.

Remember during the last two world wars people left here to fight against our enemies?? Now they are among us and our own people defend the concept that the shaira law they are fighting for isn't part of Islam.. Sad, sad, sad...

Thanks again for the good thought, God bless Canada indeed!!

Authentic Muslim Moderate Cleric: ISIS Is Following Established Islamic Jurisprudence – You Can’t Have Democracy and Sharia

As I have said, ISIS is a phenomenon with extensions all over the world, not just in Muslim countries. Even here in the U.S., there are many ISIS mosques. There are thousands of mosques that are preparing people to join ISIS. Imagine: young people from Florida join the ranks of ISIS to fight, and so do young people from Britain, Australia, Russia, China, and elsewhere. How could a young university student leave Florida to fight for ISIS if not for a mosque that incited him to do so?

I am not talking about a handful of mosques or about just a few people. No, we are talking about thousands of such mosques, or even more, in all countries of the world, from South America to North America, Africa, Asia, and Europe. These mosques are calling, day in and day out, for the revival of the caliphate. There are school curricula that glorify the caliphate, saying that the past of the Muslims is better than their present.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Oct 22, 2014 13:01:17 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Just one hell of an ISIS (?) action

Yep, just like the guy a couple days ago, he had his passport seized because he was considered likely to travel to fight in the war. With the attack in Oklahoma that makes three I.S. black swan events in a month..

[bimetalaupt]

Again: the EU is looking for more then 200 BILLION USD IN TEER1 Capital for 11 insolvent banks per my family in Luxemburg.  MANY RESPONSES ARE PURE WORMS FOOD DELIVERED FROM THE BULL

Austria's Erste Group rejected the report from Spanish newswire Efe, which said that it along with banks from Italy, Belgium, Cyprus, Portugal and Greece, had failed the ECB review based on preliminary data, but it gave no details of the size of the capital holes at the banks.


The ECB, which will publish the test outcomes for 130 banks on Sunday, said final results had not yet been sent to the lenders involved, and it could not comment on individual institutions.

"Any inferences drawn as to the final outcome of the exercise would be highly speculative until the results are final on 26 October," said an ECB spokesman.

The European Banking Authority, the EU watchdog coordinating the Europe-wide stress test, said the results would not be final until they are endorsed on Sunday just prior to publication. It had no comment on individual lenders.

Erste told Reuters it had no reason to believe it would fail the test.




Most shares of the banks mentioned in the report were under pressure, though the banking sector index recovered from earlier losses to edge up 0.1 percent.

"The bigger, more important question is not which banks have failed but which banks have achieved only a marginal pass," said Jeremy Batstone-Carr, head of private client research at Charles Stanley.

In the crosshairs

Sources told Reuters that German public sector lender HSH Nordbank - which was not named in the Efe report - was set to pass the health checks. HSH was seen as the German lender most likely to fall short of requirements.

Other than Erste, the banks listed by Efe were Italy's Banco Popolare, Monte dei Paschi and Banca Popolare di Milano; Greece's Alpha Bank, Piraeus Bank and Eurobank; Portugal's Millennium BCP and Belgium's Dexia. (NOTE: THE LARGEST CASH INFUSSION FROM THE US FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM IN 2008)
The agency also said a second, unnamed Austrian bank and a Cypriot bank were set to fail.

"They are wrong," a senior Cypriot official told Reuters. He added that one Cypriot bank had already pre-emptively raised capital, and another had the full backing of shareholders to raise money if it needs to. "That's hardly a failure," he said.

One London-based trader from a major U.S. bank questioned the accuracy of the list. "This is taking a 2013 snapshot and most of the banks on that list have already raised money through 2014 and done significant balance sheet actions this year," the trader said.

One Austrian bank that is expected to fail is the country's part-nationalized lender Volksbanken AG, which has already said it plans to wind itself down to avoid a looming capital crunch it was struggling to plug.

All three Italian banks declined to comment, though Banca Popolare di Milano's CEO said last week that the feedback he had got from the ECB in the one-to-one meeting was reassuring. Alpha and Millennium BCP also declined to comment, while the other banks could not immediately be reached.

Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said he was confident Spanish lenders would do well in the health checks, pointing to benefits from financial reforms after a property sector collapse left many banks in need of state aid.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Oct 22, 2014 19:24:43 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Again: the EU is looking for more then 200 USD IN TEER1 Capital for 11 insolvent banks per my family in Luxemburg.  MANY RESPONSES ARE PURE WORMS FOOD DELIVERED FROM THE BULL

Crazy, should have followed the FEDs lead and made a stable foundation to start building off of.. Too long without economic growth now.. Especially with China continuing the slide, and supbug black swans, and I.S. black swans... The eastern hemisphere is FUBAR...

God bless

[bimetalaupt]

Word from Luxemburg is they are going to white wash Daxia Bank because it is owned by the Government of Belgian .  The Daxia Bank has  government bonds on the books at 100% and the EU does not want to telegraph how weak this agencies are:  insolvent in reality.

25 banks were declared insolvent in January.

  10 banks still need a total of $250 Billion ( USD) teer1 capital to be compliant with BISIII.

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

So in other words, nothing has improved and has - in fact - gotten worse because without drugs, prostitution, and gambling places like Italy are back in recession. Is that how desperation is spelled??

There was another I.S. based attack in NYC yestersay I see - four now in a month. Plus a cyber based I.S. attack.. Hackers breach the Warsaw Stock Exchange

KASH is what??

God bless

[bimetalaupt]

NOW THE EXPERTS ARE TALKING BALLANCE YOU RISK WITH EXPERT 50/50 OR AGRESSIVE 63/37 REBLANCING SYSTEM!!

⁵

^{smart ways to rebalance your portfolio}

If history is a guide, many nervous retail investors won’t heed that advice. While most advisers wouldn’t recommend taking all of your money out of the market, given that stocks are back near their all-time highs, it might still be a good time to look at how the market's swings have affected your portfolio and, if appropriate, take some gains and rebalance. Use the proceeds to pay down any high-interest debt you have and build your emergency fund.





Related: Don’t Stash Your Cash – Invest It

After that, it’s OK to keep 5 to 10 percent of your portfolio in cash. Even with today’s low interest rates, you should have a portion of your portfolio invested in bonds. Consider short-term corporate bonds, which offer higher yields, or more conservative high-quality tax-free municipal bonds. The most important caveat of all is this: Always consult with a trusted financial adviser or other professional before making any of these moves, since everyone’s situation is different.

Here are options to consider if you’re looking for other places to put your money to work, depending on your circumstances and time horizon:

1. Go alternative. Investors increasingly have been sinking money into alternative investments such as private equity, real estate, and commodities since about 2005. Two of these “alts” — real estate investment trusts (REITs) and master limited partnerships (MLPs) — have long histories of solid returns and can be bought as mutual funds or exchange-traded funds, says Joyce Morningstar of Dynamic Wealth Advisors in Scottsdale, Arizona.

REITs are companies that own or finance income-producing real estate. MLPs invest in real estate, energy production, or commodities. Over the long term, the average REIT and MLP investments have paid annual dividends in the 6- to 8-percent range, says Morningstar. Still, she recommends that the two make up only about 1 to 7 percent of the typical investor’s portfolio.

Related: Retail Investors Sit Out the Rally

2. Bet on both an up- and down-market. “Market-neutral” products are designed to earn a return whether the market rises or falls. One such vehicle, a “long/short” fund, relies on skilled fund managers to take a long position (which rewards a price increase) on undervalued stocks that they forecast to rise and a short position (which rewards a fall) on overvalued stocks they think will drop.

In this category, Morningstar likes to stick with mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that at a minimum have had the same fund manager for five years and have minimum assets under management of $100 million. Fees typically are high, exceeding 1.5 percent.

3. Refocus on quality stocks. One way to stay in the market while reducing the chance of a big drop in your portfolio is to sink more of it into blue-chip companies, says Timmons. Those larger, older firms have reasonable valuations and tend to hold up better during downturns, he says. Conversely, investors with lots of money in high-growth performers in areas like social media, high-tech, and biotech might reduce their exposure: “When the market corrects, those are the first things to get sold, and they tend to be hit the hardest,” he says.

4. Ladder up. Trying to figure out the perfect time to exit the market and jump back in may be a fool’s errand, but if you can’t stomach the risk of sticking out the market, there is a safer way to move money in and out.

Under a “laddered fixed-income strategy,” you take the portion of your portfolio in stocks (with the help of an adviser) and move it into short-term “laddered” bonds or CDs, says Jesse Mackey of 4Thought Financial Group in Syosset, N.Y. These products are called laddered because the bonds and CDs are designed to mature at regular intervals. As they do, you then reinvest the proceeds back into the stock market. The effect is to let you reinvest through dollar-cost averaging — buying fewer shares when prices are high and more when prices are low.

5. Become a banker. “Peer-to-peer” lending websites like Prosper.com and LendingClub.com match up investors with individual borrowers seeking lower interest rates. Peer lending industry experts say investors are getting returns that range from 5 to 12 percent, and the returns don’t move with the stock market. That has institutional investors like hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds crowding into the space. But there’s no evidence of how peer lending will perform during an economic downturn, so financial advisors caution that this vehicle shouldn’t make up more than 10 percent of your portfolio.

finance.yahoo.com/news/5-smart-ways-rebalance-portfolio-131500793.html

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Become a banker. I like that idea, nothing like a great husband and wife team.. Now all I need is the last kid off to school and the Mrs and I can car pool.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Oct 27, 2014 22:10:22 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

NOW THE EXPERTS ARE TALKING BALLANCE YOU RISK WITH EXPERT 50/50 OR AGRESSIVE 63/37 REBLANCING SYSTEM!!

Ah yes, and now that QE is done the reason becomes clear for this. Volatility anyone?

Now where have I heard thus before?

The biggest risk for U.S. investors is a China crash

But the bigger risks are from overseas, namely a European slowdown and the threat of terrorism from ISIS in the Middle East. And the biggest risk for the next year is from China.

Ah yes, thats right - they are the trends laid out around here. The same ones we have been discussing since Jan.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Seems like these guys are saying what we are saying . The family has been in the analytic bus since the 1920's. They called for a recession in 2010 - but we didn't.. Should be interesting.. I still think the USA will stay in growth mode though. Military spending...

Predictors of ’29 Crash See 65% Chance of 2015 Recession

In 1929, a businessman and economist by the name of Jerome Levy didn’t like what he saw in his analysis of corporate profits. He sold his stocks before the October crash.

Almost eight decades later, the consultancy company that bears his name declared “the next recession will be caused by the deflating housing bubble.” By February 2007, it predicted problems in the subprime-mortgage market would spread “to virtually all financial markets.” In October 2007, it saw imminent recession -- the slump began two months later.

The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, based in Mount Kisco, New York, and run by Jerome’s grandson David, is again more worried than its peers. Its half-dozen analysts attach a 65 percent probability of a worldwide recession forcing a contraction in the U.S. by the end of next year.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Trillions and trillions spent, and they think a few trillion more will solve the problem.

The global economy has entered rough waters. Stay

Euro-Area Growth at Risk as Factories, Services Weaken

A Purchasing Managers Index for factories and services activity unexpectedly fell to 51.4 in November, the lowest in 16 months, from 52.1 in October, London-based Markit Economics said today. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. A German measure also declined, and a separate report showed weakness in China, where a factory gauge dropped to a six-month low.

While unprecedented stimulus by the European Central Bank will start to take effect in coming months, weak growth in Germany and France and rising tensions in Ukraine threaten the euro area’s modest revival. The 18-nation economy expanded 0.2 percent in the third quarter.

Boy, it's a good thing they started including all that illegal activity.

[bimetalaupt]

Nov 12, 2014 0:40:27 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Seems like these guys are saying what we are saying . The family has been in the analytic bus since the 1920's. They called for a recession in 2010 - but we didn't.. Should be interesting.. I still think the USA will stay in growth mode though. Military spending...

Predictors of ’29 Crash See 65% Chance of 2015 Recession

In 1929, a businessman and economist by the name of Jerome Levy didn’t like what he saw in his analysis of corporate profits. He sold his stocks before the October crash.

Almost eight decades later, the consultancy company that bears his name declared “the next recession will be caused by the deflating housing bubble.” By February 2007, it predicted problems in the subprime-mortgage market would spread “to virtually all financial markets.” In October 2007, it saw imminent recession -- the slump began two months later.

The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, based in Mount Kisco, New York, and run by Jerome’s grandson David, is again more worried than its peers. Its half-dozen analysts attach a 65 percent probability of a worldwide recession forcing a contraction in the U.S. by the end of next year.

A++++ ,

1929 was a bull year... 1931 after the crash of Credananies of Vienna was the start of the Great Depression.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

, your ability to say so much by saying so little is an amazing attribute. Great point, 2015 could see the bull rage!

If you think about the 1920's, Europe and North America we the only places linked in the industrialized world. By 2008, it was the globe. For you or anyone that is interested here are a couple good reads on the expansion of credit during the 1920's - make sure to note the similarities the authors point out:

-Household Debt and the Great Depression
-The 1920s Credit Bubble

Now, the boomers have staved off another global depression from housing/credit busts because during the boomer generation the globe was becoming industrialized - the credit had places to flow. Since 2008 we have avoided sliding into a global depression because China expanded credit at a record pace and Europe has been fudging along with financial wizardry. As we have seen, this gravy train has come to an end. Not just because of empty buildings, but also because of communism and Islamic fascism.

The fact is that because the globe is industrialized now - not just the west - what we have experienced is a prolonged 1929-1931 time frame. The biggest difference this time around, however, is that unlike the three years from crash to depression in the 30's, the world was not hurling towards a world war as it is now. In fact, it was the depression of the 1930's that allowed Hitler to rise to power.

So, while the globe is entering a deflationary spiral; thanks to reshoring, along with food and oil production North America - sans the CDN housing market - is actually shielded from the spiral because of the fact that war takes a lot of resources.

It sucks that as humans this is the path we have chosen, it's amazing how it always has to be the hard way. It truly didn't have to be this way. I still believe that we could have muddled through because of volume. However, my biggest flaw is that I missed how badly power can truly corrupt. One the same note, I have no doubt that at the end of this next phase we will enter into a period of prosperity lead by free enterprise - and it's all thanks to JC and the one true God.