MMXV1-ALPHA POSSIBILITY OF SUPER BLACK SWAN X PROBABILITY

[bimetalaupt]

Percent change at seasonally adjusted annual rates M1 M2
Thirteen weeks ending July 21, 2014 from thirteen weeks ending:
Apr. 21, 2014 (13 weeks previous) 11.0 6.5
Jan. 20, 2014 (26 weeks previous) 14.5 7.0
July 22, 2013 (52 weeks previous) 11.2 6.6
USING THIS WE GET THIS WITH MMXVI-ALPHA


RIDK 4769.58 12362.2032379992
19653.0256067627 1020.5350859916
UPSIDE 3159.65560676271 12715.952865076600000000000000000000
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK 66.2459924514%
correlation 12 months 3 ahead djia
correlation m3 to djia
correlation 12 months 3 ahead djia 0.6283483251732
correlation m3 to djia 0.640128120268
correlationm1 to djia 0.7739201630056
correlation m2 to djia 0.7082975700231
corrlation M1 to DJTM 0.7261327371821
correlationm2 to djtm 0.6639008257452
corellation m3 to djtm 0.5558922411071
correlationnon m2 m3 to djtm 0.3090235495029
correlation none-m2-m3 to DJIA 0.507079818494
2000 - 2010 M1 to gold 0.94753258291

djia to m3 2009 to 2013 96.37790822%
average m3 15273.6466666667
average djia 13395.44
average djia/m3 87.702958516%
djia/m3 2013 only 95.263830937%

JUST A THOUGHT ON THE UNPROVEN MMXVI-ALPHA MATHMODEL
BiMetalAuPt

[bimetalaupt]

Some background data on super Black Swan Bank crashing in the piigs;

The European Union wants to know how far its national governments are willing to go to ensure that the euro area’s new bank resolution authority has the funds it needs in an EMERGENCY.

As part of its drive to prevent future financial crises, the EU created the Single Resolution Mechanism for the euro area backed by a 55 billion-euro ($74 billion) fund to cover the costs of saving or shuttering banks. During the eight years when the fund is filling, or if even the full amount proves insufficient, it may need extra bridge-financing CASH FAST to get the job done.
.....
“A progressive pooling of credit lines would have the advantage that the sovereign-bank nexus would gradually weaken,” and the resolution fund would enjoy “more certain and swift” access to EMERGENCY financing, the document states. Without such pooling, the targeted link between countries and their banks would remain.

www.businessweek.com/news/2014-07-30/eu-puzzles-over-emergency-funds-for-bank-crisis-agency
It is not over and things are getting to the point where they can not kick the can anymore down the street.  The stress test was a white wash per my hedge fund trader AND discussant SOURCE IN Luxembourg: THESE BANKS ARE A SECURE MESS OF WORTHLESS OVERSPENT GOVERNMENT BONDS.  THINK KREDITANENESE OF THE ROTHSCHILD FAMILY IN AUSTRIA: 1931!  WORTHLESS EASTERN EUROPEAN BONDS AS 100% VALUE VS MARK TO 15% MARKET VALUE.    (ECON 689 CLASS NOTES)
JUST A VUE OF BLACK SWANS,
BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

,

No doubt they can't kick the can down the road much longer. Here we are supposedly almost two years into the EU recovery and they are still nationalizing banks, sitting at negative interest rates, and taking about stimulus.

How about some more 1930's for ya.... Far-right anti-Europe and anti-immigration politician Marine Le Pen would WIN a French presidential election if it was held today according to new poll

Hope the weekend went well,

God bless,

[bimetalaupt]

current numbers from MMXVI-Alpha (8/05/2014)  Concept test Alpha Permutation Tests..AKA Re-sampling TEST
 Phillip Good, Permutation Tests, QA277G643 1993 519.5'6 ISBN 0-387-94097-9 SPRINGER Series in Statistics, Chapter 2,page 11-22: A simple Test and Chapter 4, Experimental Design, Page 44 to 63.  also page 153, Monte Carlo
Highest risk DJIA 14856.4458422821


RIDK 4709.67375
19566.1195922821
UPSIDE 3136.64959228209
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK 66.6001459715%


I am not G& but just running a stress test to see how low might get with a major default or EUBank event due to a country unable to finance there social promises like bank financing needed recapitalization of one of the major banks like UBS or BES. , etc.


Just a thought,

BimetalAuPt
 

[Artemis Windsong]

Rut Roh.  My license plate just took on a third meaning.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Aug 5, 2014 16:28:57 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

I am not G& but just running a stress test to see how low might get with a major default or EUBank event due to a country unable to finance there social promises like bank financing needed recapitalization of one of the major banks like UBS or BES. , etc.


Just a thought,

BimetalAuPt
 

I hear ya, same here. Calling it as I see it.

On top of the insane pile of debt is Asia... Crédit Agricole profit nearly wiped out by BES charge

Not just Argentina: 11 countries near bankruptcy

They span the globe, ranging from Greece and Ukraine in Europe, to Pakistan in Asia, to Ecuador, Venezuela, and Belize in the Americas.

[bimetalaupt]

Now for QE-ECB...Starting Sept 2014..Fed winds down as ECB starts bank rescue action

One centerpiece policy of the central bank’s stimulus announced in June has yet to take effect. The ECB’s program of long-term LOANS FOR banks aimed at channeling as much as 1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) to the euro-area economy will only begin in September and officials have indicated they will refrain from further action until the impact of this is clear. While Draghi said in July that officials are intensifying preparations to buy asset-backed securities, analysts don’t expect an announcement imminently.

real problem is getting real with the damaged banking system as they have kicked the can for 7 years and did northing.

Is any further policy action likely for now?

No, according to economists. While Draghi left the door open to “little” adjustments after taking the benchmark rate to a record-low 0.15 percent and the DEPOSIT RATE negative in June, all participants in a Bloomberg News survey say that the ECB’s three official rates will stay unchanged at today’s meeting. They also say that officials will keep borrowing costs on hold in coming months, with the majority of economists in a separate survey predicting a rate increase no earlier than 2016, and only one in 28 analysts foreseeing a further cut in the deposit rate.

VIDEO: Time to Get Rid of Your Euros?

www.businessweek.com/news/2014-08-06/five-questions-for-mario-draghi-to-answer-for-you-today#

THINGS ARE GOING FROM BAD TO BANKING CRASH LIKE 1931!!

How is the ECB’s balance sheet review shaping up?

Portugal last week rescued Banco Espirito Santo SA, once the country’s largest lender by market value, in a 4.9 billion-euro bailout. While the move sparked memories of the euro crisis, the effect on that country’s sovereign bonds has been limited so far and analysts say contagion has been contained. Draghi may still face questions on the impact of the rescue on the ECB’s Comprehensive Assessment of balance sheets, as the bailout puts into focus the capacity of the euro-area’s banking union framework to withstand further bank failures.

Current projection of gold  relation 94.7532582910%
current forcast of price per Troy oz in USD! $1198.98969517142
MMXVI-Alpha 8/6/2014  

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

[damnotagain]

Circumstantial evidence has always been a powerful force in the law. It allows police, investigators, lawyers and judges to ferret out the truth. Circumstantial evidence is admissible in any court of law to prove a fact. It is used all the time, both when we initiate investigations, and once we seek indictments and convictions. We do this because we deal in a corrupt world, filled with suspicious actions and lies, and the circumstances are often suspicious enough to give rise to a strong inference that something is amiss. Most of the time, when the direct evidence is insufficient to prove a case beyond a reasonable doubt, or even by a preponderance of direct evidence, circumstantial evidence fills the void, and gives us the conviction. We even admit evidence of the circumstances to prove murder cases. In light of that, it certainly seems appropriate to use circumstantial evidence in evaluating possible regulatory violations. The size and timing of the delivery of Deutsche Bank’s COMEX obligation is suspicious, to say the least, when taken in conjunction with the size and timing of the ECB’s gold sale. It is circumstantial evidence that the gold used by Deutsche Bank to deliver and fulfill its COMEX obligations, came directly or indirectly, from the ECB.

seekingalpha.com/article/129128-did-the-ecb-save-comex-from-gold-default

www.bullionbullscanada.com/component/content/article/429-did-ecb-save-deutsche-bank-from-comex-gold-default

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Aug 6, 2014 19:27:27 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Now for QE-ECB...Starting Sept 2014..Fed winds down as ECB starts bank rescue action

One centerpiece policy of the central bank’s stimulus announced in June has yet to take effect. The ECB’s program of long-term LOANS FOR banks aimed at channeling as much as 1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) to the euro-area economy will only begin in September and officials have indicated they will refrain from further action until the impact of this is clear. While Draghi said in July that officials are intensifying preparations to buy asset-backed securities, analysts don’t expect an announcement imminently.

real problem is getting real with the damaged banking system as they have kicked the can for 7 years and did northing.

Is any further policy action likely for now?

No, according to economists. While Draghi left the door open to “little” adjustments after taking the benchmark rate to a record-low 0.15 percent and the DEPOSIT RATE negative in June, all participants in a Bloomberg News survey say that the ECB’s three official rates will stay unchanged at today’s meeting. They also say that officials will keep borrowing costs on hold in coming months, with the majority of economists in a separate survey predicting a rate increase no earlier than 2016, and only one in 28 analysts foreseeing a further cut in the deposit rate.

VIDEO: Time to Get Rid of Your Euros?

www.businessweek.com/news/2014-08-06/five-questions-for-mario-draghi-to-answer-for-you-today#

THINGS ARE GOING FROM BAD TO BANKING CRASH LIKE 1931!!

How is the ECB’s balance sheet review shaping up?

Portugal last week rescued Banco Espirito Santo SA, once the country’s largest lender by market value, in a 4.9 billion-euro bailout. While the move sparked memories of the euro crisis, the effect on that country’s sovereign bonds has been limited so far and analysts say contagion has been contained. Draghi may still face questions on the impact of the rescue on the ECB’s Comprehensive Assessment of balance sheets, as the bailout puts into focus the capacity of the euro-area’s banking union framework to withstand further bank failures.

Current projection of gold  relation 94.7532582910%
current forcast of price per Troy oz in USD! $1198.98969517142
MMXVI-Alpha 8/6/2014  

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

It's not going to do anything! You want to talk about money not making it out of the bank in system.. They already have a 2 trillion dollar bad bank, what's half that going to do? The bank failure in Portugal wasn't because of liquidity, it was because the economy is week. This is why the artificial inflation stories are so dangerous. Commodities were also run up because of lack of good bonds. As you point out, gold would be $300-$500 if it wasn't for m3 growth. Food inflation because of asset prices isn't inflation!!

-ECB preview: The charts that should keep Mario Draghi up at night
-Market is betting against Draghi’s efforts to fight deflation

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I didn't realize liar was spelled M-A-R-I-O.. How can he even say this when France’s Credit Agricole just reported a massive lose because of it, two days ago!

Banco Espirito Santo Episode Was Contained Swiftly, Draghi Says

“What could have been a systemic incident is actually now considered an incident, episode, which is restricted to this bank and to the owners of this bank,” Draghi said in Frankfurt today. It “affected neither the banking sector in Portugal, nor Portugal at large, nor other markets” elsewhere, he said.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It's going to be hard to withstand bank failures if the economy is in the tank. Once again, if this was 2009... Five years on....

-Eurozone Economy Weakened By Conflicts In Ukraine And Iraq
-German Economy Backbone Bending From Lost Russia Sales

[bimetalaupt]

Sy Harding, Street Smart Report (179 clicks)
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European Markets Look Downright Scary
Aug. 10, 2014 7:42 AM ET |

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
Summary

European and U.S. markets have been moving in tandem with each other for years. They still are, both being in short-term pullbacks.
However, the plunge in European markets has been more severe, and has them ominously broken beneath their long-term 200-day moving averages.
If the U.S. market and European markets are going to continue to move in tandem, let’s hope European markets recover quickly before the U.S. market follows them down.

Here's the situation.

The economy of the 18-nation European Union is about the same size as that of the U.S., with roughly equal impacts on each other and on global growth. Germany, France, and the U.K. are the largest economies in the EU, and the fourth, fifth, and sixth largest economies in the world.

The stock markets of those major European economies have been tracking in tandem with the U.S. market for years, showing similar resilience, making new highs together.

They are still moving somewhat in tandem with each other, being in short-term pullbacks together.

However, while the S&P 500 topped out into its pullback just two weeks ago, and is down less than 4%, European markets topped out two months ago, and on average are already down about twice as much, and still declining. That has them still within the confines of a brief, normal, and overdue 10% correction.

However, in their pullbacks the major markets of Europe have broken beneath not just short-term and intermediate-term support levels, as has the U.S. market, but beneath their long-term 200-day (40-week) moving averages.

That is potentially ominous based on what usually happened in the past after similar breakdowns of long-term support.

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Participants will measure the strength of the Eurozone’s fragile economy this week as escalating conflicts in Ukraine and Iraq darken the mood.

In contrast to the US and UK, which are growing strongly, economic output in the Euro bloc came to a halt in Q-2. Its #1 economy, Germany, is losing momentum and Italy fell back into recession.

The growing sanctions “contest” between Russia and the West over Moscow’s backing of rebels in Ukraine and US air strikes to block Islamist militants in Iraq are upsetting the markets.

Last Thursday, the EU announces economic output data for the 18 countries in the Eurozone for Q-2, and Germany will reveal its own GDP for the same frame.

By these measures, neither Germany nor the wider Eurozone are expected to see much, if any, improvement on the first three months of the year.

To compound matters, tit-for-tat sanctions between Moscow and the European Union and fears that Russia could even invade eastern Ukraine are already sapping business confidence and will eat into paltry economic growth later this year.

Not only does Moscow supply about at least 33% of the European Union’s Nat Gas need, trade ties in other areas between Russia and Europe run deep.

German energy giant E.ON SE (PINK: EONSY), for instance, has invested EUR 6-B ($8-B) since Y 2007 in Russia, while chemicals firm BASF (PINK:BASFY) has a joint venture with Gazprom (PINK:OGZPY).

The market has been ignoring the geopolitical risks for some time now. The escalation in Ukraine and a spiral of sanctions could be a turning point. Exports to Russia were falling even before Ukraine and could fall further. The Iraq crisis increases nervousness.

With Europe looking grim and the days of mega-growth in China over, the United States has offered some hope for the world economy.

Participants will seek to measure the strength of the US rebound by examining the latest figures for retail sales and producer prices.

Many are looking for reassurance that economic growth is trickling down to workers’ pay, important proof that the recovery will stick when central banks make it more expensive to borrow.

But the Bank of England (BOE) is set to acknowledge surprisingly weak pay growth Wednesday when it publishes economic projections, raising big questions about Britain’s readiness for its first interest rate hike since the financial crisis.

AS BEFORE: DAXIA BANK WAS THE LARGEST FEDERAL RESERVE RESCUE IN 2008-2009 AND IT WAS ALMOST UNKNOWN BANK THAT ONLY DEALT WITH WHOLESALE MONEY AND STATE BOND WERE ALMOST 100% OF THE ASSET BASE. IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN A+++ CREDIT BUT WAS INSOLVENT UNTIL RESCUED BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND LUXEMBOURG, BELGIUM  AND FRANCE. 

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

[bimetalaupt]

THINGS ARE CRASHING IN GERMANY ESP BANKING POWER OF THE STATE RECAPITALIZED BANKS:LANDISBANKS:Germany offers a unique “laboratory” to explore bank stability across different ownership types, as the banking system consists of three broadly equally sized segments, privately-owned banks, government-owned savings banks, and cooperative banks. To shed light on bank ownership and stability issues, we have recently analysed a new dataset on German banks (Beck, Hesse, Kick and von Westernhagen 2009). We use annual data over the period 1995 to 2007 and relate different measures of bank stability to ownership dummies and an array of other bank characteristics. We also explore differences in the relationship between stability and bank size across different ownership types. The sample is quite broad, but excludes the five large private banks, Landesbanken and two cooperative central banks. Another caveat is that the sample ends in 2007, i.e. before the current crisis. The study is therefore not able to account for the dynamics of the current financial turbulences.

MWL Apparate Bau GmbH, based in the eastern German town of Grimma, has relied on strong ties with Russia to bolster business. Today, those links don’t mean much.

The maker of equipment such as pressure vessels and hot water tanks for the chemical and petrochemical industries has seen a “significant” decline in orders in the last six months due to the crisis, sales chief Reinhard Weber said. The company has annual revenue of about 20 million euros ($27 million).

“There are two contracts from Russia we didn’t get and we think that’s for political reasons,” Weber said in a telephone interview. “They’re afraid of sanctions being extended -- that they will make an order and that we won’t be able to fulfill it because of political decisions in Germany or Europe.”

Waging Financial War

MWL is one of many businesses in Germany’s Mittelstand, the thousands of small- and medium-sized companies that form the backbone of Europe’s largest economy, that are already getting pinched as Russian customers put off purchases. With the crisis now intensifying through deeper European Union and U.S. sanctions and retaliatory measures from Russia banning EU and U.S. food imports, they’re preparing for an even bigger hit.

Take Amandus Kahl GmbH. The maker of food processing and recycling machinery near Hamburg had expected to bring in about 10 million euros in revenue this year from Russia.

Sales to the country “have pretty much evaporated because our clients can’t get financing,” Rochus Mecke, a Kahl’s sales director, said in an interview. “We still get inquiries, but it’s only inquiries.”
Worsening Situation

Even before the confrontation deepened with the July 17 downing of MH17 over territory held by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, German business was being impacted. Factory orders in June dropped the most in more than 2 1/2 years.

With the escalating measures from both sides, executives are bracing for the situation to worsen. German business sentiment fell for a third straight month in July to the lowest since October, according to the Munich-based Ifo institute.

The Mittelstand, which accounts for 52 percent of Germany’s economic output, is made up of businesses that generally have a focused product offering and more regional sales. That means those reliant on Russia are less able to shift output to other areas of the world in the way global companies like Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and Siemens AG can.

“The Mittelstand largely has a less diversified business,” said Tobias Baumann, an economist responsible for Russia at the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry in Berlin. “The biggest danger is that highly specialized companies with a high share of exports to eastern Europe are deliberately let be run into the ground and that technical skills are lost as a result.”
Escalating Sanctions

EU sanctions announced last month restrict the export to Russia of equipment to modernize the oil industry and forbid the sale of machinery, electronics and other civilian products with potential military uses. New arms contracts with Russia are also not allowed. Russia responded with import bans on an array of food stuffs from the U.S. and Europe, including fish, beef, pork, fruit, vegetables and dairy.

While most attention has been focused on the impact to big companies in industries such as finance and defense, the deeper pain will be felt by these small businesses in Germany, which is Russia’s biggest EU trading partner. Their health is critical to Europe’s biggest economy and so Europe as a whole.

“The slowing impact of increasing sanctions is now having an effect on company order books and threatening business expectations for the year,” Mario Ohoven, head of the Federal Mittelstand Association, said in an e-mail.
Government Aid

The political tensions with Russia stunted German industry in June, when production fell 0.5 percent from the previous year after adjustments for working days. The country’s economy probably shrank 0.1 in the three months through June, the first contraction since 2012, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. GDP data will be released Aug. 14.

German Economy Minister and Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel said the government is examining whether it might offer aid to companies hurt by sanctions and which aren’t covered by existing export guarantee legislation.

“First we need to get an overview about which companies are affected and how they are impacted,” Gabriel told journalists last week in Bad Lauchstaedt. “Despite all the economic difficulties, political considerations should take precedence.”

Kueberit Profile Systems GmbH, a flooring supplier based 45 miles to the northeast of Cologne, is experiencing a drop in profit as Russian customers opt for less expensive products, said Maxim Poteraylo, the company’s Russian sales manager. That’s in part because of the ruble’s decline against the euro since the crisis began earlier this year, he said.
Paying More

“Our end-consumers have to pay more,” Poteraylo said by telephone from his office near Moscow. “The cost of borrowing money has also increased 14 percent. That means they don’t have enough money to pay for renovations.”

The standoff is especially hurting companies in eastern Germany, according to local business leaders. The region’s past in the Soviet bloc means Russian ties are tighter, according to Reinhard Paetz, the head of the eastern arm of Germany’s machine makers association.

“If the crisis lasts any longer, there is a great danger that many of our Russian customers will turn towards countries which are not taking part in the sanctions,” Paetz said. “Some companies do 30 percent to 50 percent of their business in Russia or Ukraine.”

UNION Werkzeugmaschinen GmbH Chemnitz, a machine-tool manufacturer in eastern Germany with 180 employees founded in 1852, already has workers on shortened hours as a result of slack demand. Russia is the company’s third-biggest market.

“We’re significantly impacted by the situation,” said Christina Debus, a company spokeswoman. “During East German times, we sold a lot of machinery to Russia, and we still have close business ties with Russia. We notice that there aren’t projects anymore as clients there don’t make any investments.”

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I hear ya . The big difference between now and 2011 is the fact the EU never had an economic recovery. Think about the exposure to China! Talk about eastern banks being the cause of a massive depression!

PS. How about the commodity price breakdown that would follow? That would leave wages as the #1 driver of inflation.. As you say, just a thought.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

This article sums up the current dilemma...

Europe's Crash-and-Burn Economy

As the euro-region economy struggled to emerge from recession in recent years, officials could at least comfort themselves with the performance of the German economy: "We'll always have Frankfurt," to miscoin a phrase. That's no longer true.

German investor confidence has worsened for eight consecutive months; today, it collapsed to its lowest level in two years. The euro-region economy is in flames. Here ends the argument that the world of finance and economics is shrugging off Ukraine and Iraq and Ebola and Gaza and all the other geopolitical risks currently assailing the headlines.

The bold would be the headwinds that I have been talking about since January in the "over the long term" thread. Stay ,

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 12, 2014 1:41:39 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I hear ya . The big difference between now and 2011 is the fact the EU never had an economic recovery. Think about the exposure to China! Talk about eastern banks being the cause of a massive depression!

PS. How about the commodity price breakdown that would follow? That would leave wages as the #1 driver of inflation.. As you say, j

I need to get the system of the MMXVI-Alpha deep Black Swan all into one post.  If this is in fact a slow return to the Great Depression then:
Commodity prices will decline
Wages will decline
Land value and house prices will decline
Risk ASSET values will crash : like FB stock or any beta 2+ value
KASH will be King
Bonds = t-bonds at 1% like WWII. Will be the next best thing..think of anything..

Work  will be a

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Aug 12, 2014 23:29:06 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Aug 12, 2014 1:41:39 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I hear ya . The big difference between now and 2011 is the fact the EU never had an economic recovery. Think about the exposure to China! Talk about eastern banks being the cause of a massive depression!

PS. How about the commodity price breakdown that would follow? That would leave wages as the #1 driver of inflation.. As you say, j

I need to get the system of the MMXVI-Alpha deep Black Swan all into one post.  If this is in fact a slow return to the Great Depression then:
Commodity prices will decline
Wages will decline
Land value and house prices will decline
Risk ASSET values will crash : like FB stock or any beta 2+ value
KASH will be King
Bonds = t-bonds at 1% like WWII. Will be the next best thing..think of anything..

Work  will be a

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

 

The big difference I see is that a global conflict will be a big factor this time around. The geopolitical issues are what is causing this weakness. So world demand for commodities - outside fuel and raw materials for weaponry - will be weak until we get to the other side. Risk assets that rely on global growth are going to be weak til we get to the other side. But think of the GDP growth in North America during the 40's...

I will post some articles tomorrow..

God bless,

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Oh ya, property prices are in trouble esp Canada, China, Australia, ect...

[bimetalaupt]

DATA FROM Q2 SHOWS WORLD IN GOING INTO  DEEP INTERNATIONAL DEPRESSION LEAD BY RUSSIA AND GERMANY,


Just a thought,BiMetalAuPt

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares pushed higher on Thursday after a flood of soft economic data led investors to WAGER on a ceaseless fountain of stimulus from major central banks, sending bond yields tumbling across the globe.

An economic contraction in Japan, a shock fall in Chinese loans, a surprisingly dovish turn by the Bank of England and a sluggish reading on U.S. retail sales all combined to make any tightening in policy seem a very distant prospect.

Indeed, investors suspect further easing is in the cards with data on euro zone growth and inflation later Thursday expected to pressure the European Central Bank for more action.

Yields on Germany's two-year debt (DE2YT=RR) actually went negative, meaning investors were paying for the privilege of lending Berlin money.

"Risk-correlated assets have responded positively to weak activity data in the U.S., China, the euro area and Japan," summed up Barclays forex strategist Aroop Chatterje. "Euro area inflation remains subdued, which could put pressure on the ECB."

But it is hardly alone. (TOP/CEN)

"China's growth recovery remains fragile," he added. "More forceful policy easing such as interest rate cuts is likely needed for the government to achieve its growth target."

The Bank of Korea is widely expected to cut its rates by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent on Thursday. That would be the lowest since early November 2010 and a marked turnaround from just a month ago.

The thought of endless stimulus helped take the sting out of the disappointing economic news and underpinned equities.

finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-shares-investors-bank-more-013020037.html

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Yes it sure does , and it's on a head on collision with a global conflict. This is the article I mentioned last night - the highlights - the whole thing is eye opening though. Especially the part about how prepared the public was. You would think with the access to information that it would be different this time around...

How Ready Was Europe for World War I?

Did Political Leaders Expect War?

In various ways the war was anticipated, planned, and even welcomed. War was planned in Berlin and Vienna. It was welcomed in St Petersburg, and to some extent in Paris....

.....

Did the Leaders Understand What Was Coming?

Yes, although not fully. Too much has been made of the idea that everyone expected a short, victorious war. This expectation was widespread only among ordinary people who had no influence on decision making....

....

Did the People Understand?

If not at first, they quickly adjusted....

....

Were the Soldiers Equipped for What Came Next?

No. In the early stages of the conflict, three kinds of troops went on the offensive: infantry, gunners, and railway and horse troops for supply. They faced rifles, guns, and static machine guns. It soon became apparent that infantrymen had no offensive equipment that could answer the gunfire of a positional defence.

The reason that the IS has been so "successful" is because NATO was unprepared for the guerilla style battles of the mujahideen. This is why hundreds of millions of soldiers will be needed to root this tribal force out that is embedded across Asia, Africa, the Mid East - and Europe. Chinese depression=boots for the war.

God bless.

[bimetalaupt]

THE GERMAN 10 YEAR BUND'S HIT 1% < EARLY TODAY : DOWN FROM 1.5% EARLY THIS YEAR..


DEPRESSION IS LOWER PRICES AND ASSET VALUE ( ECON689) AND THE EU AND JAPAN ARE THERE NOW.  RUSSIA AND GERMANY ARE IN A TRADE WAR.


Just a thought,BiMetalAuPt
finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-shares-investors-bank-more-013020037.html

Global stocks rise on Putin comments, bonds yields fall
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Global equity markets edged higher on Thursday after President Vladimir Putin of Russian sounded a conciliatory note over the crisis in Ukraine, while bond yields in Europe fell to record lows as the euro zone's RECOVERYstalled in the second quarter.

Putin told Russian ministers and members of parliament in Crimea that Russia would stand up for itself but not at the cost of confrontation with the outside world, easing off months of tough rhetoric over Ukraine.

Stocks on Wall Street opened slightly higher, following gains in Europe, where equity markets have tumbled in past weeks over fears of an escalation of tensions between the West and Moscow over Ukraine.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index was 0.27 percent higher at 1,329.04, and MSCI's all-country world index rose 0.3 percent.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 20.36 points, or 0.12 percent, at 16,672.16. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 4.09 points, or 0.21 percent, at 1,950.81. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 8.72 points, or 0.20 percent, at 4,442.84.

[bimetalaupt]

www.marketwatch.com/story/german-10-year-yield-below-1-4-takeaways-2014-08-14?siteid=yhoof2

German yield below 1%: 4 takeaways


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The benchmark German bond yield dipped below 1% on Thursday, a move that’s being watched far beyond the borders of the euro zone’s biggest economy.

The 10-year German government bond, or bund, BX:TMBMKDE-10Y -1.08% yield has been sliding lower since the beginning of the year, stoking fears about the fate of the euro zone’s economic engine and eliciting comparisons to Japanese style deflation. The bund last traded at a yield of 1.02%, according to FactSet, and dipped as low as 0.99%, an all-time low.

In a world that’s globally interconnected, the German government’s ability to borrow for 10 years at around 1% or less says as much about the other regions of the world as it does about Germany. Here’s why investors are watching the dip below 1%.

Holding down U.S. mortgage costs

The facts are depression ( lower prices  food, home and gasoline) action and trade restrictions are here today.  Bonds are just one statement of world problems: the bond market is saying negative inflation IE DEPRESSION PRICES. 
Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt

[bimetalaupt]

WITH A MATH SYSTEM 64.362584405426200% CORRELATION OF M3 TO DJIA I HAVE KEEP THE RISK ON ( BET ON BLACK) FOR MY FIVE CORE HOLDINGS THAT ARE DOW 65 STOCKS...JNJ, GE,IBM,HD AND T.    THEY NO LONGER DOMINATE MY HOLDINGS OR INCOME.  I HAVE RE-CLASSED DUK TO DJUA AS A BOND: THAT WORKS BETTER FOR MY EFFICIENT FRONTIER STUDY.    

YOU MAY WANT TO READ MORE ABOUT D.I. AND MY GREAT DEBATE ON OPTIONS: ARE THEY FOR INCREASED INCOME OR PROTECTIONS,  MY INCOME FOR Q1 WAS THE HIGHEST EVER FOR PUTS AND I AM MOSTLY OUT OF THE ACTIONS EXCEPT S&P FUTURES THROUGH A TRUST.  SD for the DJIA is SD as % DJIA 19.2824595632% so risk over return is 19.2824%/10.15% =189.97497106602%
That is better then 9.11% for DJTM A VISIT WITH MY GF   



LAST STUDY FROM MY MMXVI-ALPHA HAS ERP FOR DJIA ABOVE 6%..THE OLD BUY SIGNAL FROM THE OLD EXPERT 50/50 SYSTEM

PER MMXVI-ALPHA 8-8-2014) me bad
total sm yield 1.71%
M3 growth 7.86%
combination 9.57%
erp 6.570000000000%
THEN IF AND ONLY IF WE GET A 2+ SD DECLINE (black swan)
After 2 sd+ correction then
SMALL CAPS 11.7753000000%
MAximum Risk holding for the 30 DJIA 11.51090000000%
Major Lehman like depression study ( MMXVI-ALPHA)
RIDK 4882.708125
19817.6355448141
UPSIDE 3203.59554481411
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK 65.6110392594%

Highest risk DJIA 14934.9274198141

Just a thought on the last run of the new study model AKA MMXVI-ALPHA,this is my STRESS TEST!
BiMetalAuPt
PS: IF YOU LOOK AT THE CORRELATION ON M3 TO DJIA PER MMXVI-ALPHA THE ISOLATED PERIOD CORRELATION (12-31-2009-8-15-2014)  IMPROVES TO 96.45451342%.  M3 IS NOW AT 17441.6 OR UP 7.4%.+ DIVIDENDS OF 2.75% = 10.15% TOTAL POTENTIAL.  BETTER THEN TOTAL MARKET. 
PSS: CORRECTION

total sm yield 1.71%
M3 growth 7.40%
combination 9.11%
erp 6.110000000000%
After 2 sd+ correction then
SMALL CAPS 11.1819000000%
MAR 10.88070000000%

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The math on China's debt makes Lehman look like a hiccup. An international depression caused by a global conflict is unheard of in modern times. Since this is a mash up of the last 150 years....

As you say, just a thought.

Euro-zone spin doctors speechless as GDP sinks

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

This is

Admit it: We're Careening Towards WW III

WORLD AT WAR-The last time we were in a Great Depression, we were understandably preoccupied and absorbed in our own economic and domestic affairs. And, like the 1930's, we were and are sick and tired of the horrors of war, and of the savageries of the outside world--both the nightmares of World War I, and the nightmares of Iraq/Afghanistan, were and are just too fresh in our memories for us to care about the new nightmares occurring abroad.

Yet those nightmares then and those nightmares now are not going away, try as we might want to shut them out......


......Also unfortunately, too few Americans learned and/or remember what they learn about how a miserable 1920's/1930's era-Germany did to create a Nazi machine backed by infuriated and economically-depressed Germany. The same phenomenon is empowering extremism in the Third World as well, particularly since the rich/poor divide is so much more dramatic in the Third World compared to the West.

Whether it's anarchism, fascism, socialism or Islamism (some might prefer to call it Radicalism), there have always been attractive places for the disaffected and disempowered to go and exact some form of revenge against a world that they perceive has backed them into a corner. In our modern era, it happens to be Islamism or Radicalism--but the world can still be drawn into a nightmarish World War III, nevertheless.

[bimetalaupt]

Bring in the next red flag: Italy ..Too Big to fail for the ECB and too poor to rescue Cut in the Federal budget has produced negitive GDP growth: USA could do the same and this would create a depression for the whole world: we have debt financed growth and and the Federal Reserve is the worlds ATM machine. One more Super high flying BLACK SWAN
Just a thought,
BiMETALAuPt

The ECB's next problem: saving Italy
Fathom Consulting reckons that without a European Central Bank rescue, in the form of large-scale quantitative easing, a full-blown run on Italian debt is inevitable
Since Matteo Renzi grabbed the Italian premiership in February, Rome has fallen off the radar of most crisis watchers. Renzi’s promise to institute sweeping reforms to BUSINESS and labour markets appeared to be more than hot air following the appointment of Pier Carol Padoan as finance minister.

The heavy-hitting former chief economist of the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) appeared to give the youthful Renzi the intellectual ballast and POLITICAL clout needed to push through an ambitious agenda.

This narrative was allied to figures SHOWING Italy was already close to achieving a balanced budget and its banks were in better shape than many of France’s famous names.

Maybe it is too soon to judge, but figures showing the country has fallen back into recession will dent the new government’s plans along with its image.

Fathom Consulting, run by former Bank of England economist Danny Gabay, warns that Rome may rank as another of Europe’s Black Swans. It has flirted with disaster before and always pulled back. Without a European Central Bank (ECB) rescue, in the form of large-scale quantitative easing, maybe a full-blown run on its debt is inevitable, possibly next year.

Mario Draghi, the ECB president, is expected to tell his audience today that he is waiting to see how his previous attempts at offering cheap credit are faring before considering QE.

Interest rates will be kept on hold alongside further monetary easing.

The view from Draghi’s Frankfurt base is that Italy is one of Europe’s children and must be parented with an iron rod. Any hand-outs or relaxation in tough fiscal constraints will be spent by Rome on the equivalent of sweets and sugary drinks, is his view. And he is not alone. The Germans, Dutch and Brussels elite think the same way.

What could change their mind is a panic-fuelled run on Italian debt.

Fathom said in a note on Tuesday that the intersection between inflation and growth is the key.

Growth is needed to pay the interest on the debt or the debt grows ever larger. It currently stands at around 130% of GDP. Inflation helps erode the debt while growth helps pay for it. Without growth, the contry needs higher inflation. Except the news on Wednesday that a 0.1% drop in output in the first quarter and 0.2% drop in the second was married to a 0% inflation rate.

www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/aug/07/the-ecbs-next-problem-saving-italy

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Here are a few more interesting reads.

Nobel economists say policy blunders pushing Europe into depression

An array of Nobel economists have launched a blistering attack on the eurozone's economic strategy, warning that contractionary policies risk years of depression and a fresh eruption of the debt crisis.

"Historians are going to tar and feather Europe's central bankers," said Professor Peter Diamond, the world's leading expert on unemployment.

Like we are starting to do right now.

When PIIGS fly, everything you know about euro crisis is wrong

The crisis has flipped from South to North, upending everything

The first is that it suggests that crisis is never-ending. Like water inside a balloon, it can shift from place to place, but the quantity remains the same. The euro zone is now locked into a permanent depression from which there appears to be no escape. The second is that the analysis of a spendthrift uncompetitive South has been shattered — and the policy elite are going to have to come up with a better explanation for the continent’s failings.

Worse than the 1930s: Europe’s recession is really a depression

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Oh, and we can't forget how it's actually a global conflict that is causing this international depression. Putin's actions are starting to make lots of sense. If he would have invaded Eastern Ukraine the would have had to start pumping money into it like Crimea. But by just giving the rebels enough support Eastern Ukraine is essentially flattened. We can't forget Putin wants control. No better way to assert control both foreign, and domestic.

As you always say just a thought.

Europe risks deeper economic crisis as Russia buckles and defaults mount in Ukraine

Guess there is a few reasons why Soros not only investor playing defense

[bimetalaupt]

The "German Long Depression" 1890's vs USA Great Recession 2008..
Both reduced Manufacturing cost
Both increased international competitive position for exports
Both depended on the Working class to carried the basic load that improved the national GDP!
Both increased savings! by reducing wasteful spending.
BOTH LEAD BY A CLASH OF THE TITANS : BISMARK VS OBAMA THAT Long term both caused an improvement in quality of production and products.

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Good points Bruce. The differce being that this time around the USA is already industrialized and so is China. It's going to be a long ride out of this next speed bump. We will have to return to the other practice that was going on in the 1840's - industrialist will have to put their massive cash piles to work to increase the economy because govt stimulus isn't going to cut it anymore.