MMXV1-ALPHA POSSIBILITY OF SUPER BLACK SWAN X PROBABILITY

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 22, 2014 20:45:04 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Good points Bruce. The differce being that this time around the USA is already industrialized and so is China. It's going to be a long ride out of this next speed bump. We will have to return to the other practice that was going on in the 1840's - industrialist will have to put their massive cash piles to work to increase the economy because govt stimulus isn't going to cut it anymore.

A++++,

THANK-YOU FOR YOUR KIND WORDS,
YES, THE LONG TERM GROWTH IN THE ECONOMY IS CARRIED ON THE BACK OF THE SAVER.  DR. FISCHER'S PARADOX: SAVING IN THE SHORT TERM REDUCES PERSONAL SPENDING -beer-BUT INCREASES M3 AND LONG TERM INVESTMENTS .  WHEN DR. POOLE GAVE HIS SPEECH ABOUT SUB-PRIME LENDING IS UNDER CONTROL: SAVING WAS 2.5% ( NOV 2007) BUT TODAY IT IS 5.3%(JUNE 2014) .  
WE COULD USE 10% SAVINGS RATE FOR M3 AND THE ECONOMIES LONG TERM INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT.

KASH IS KING: GOT TO LOVE THE USD...

JUST A THOUGHT,
BiMetalAuPt
relationship of NONE M2-M3 to industrial development :notes from Econ 689, Tarleton MBA Advanced study on advantages of a strong savings development in an Industrial Nation.  
M3 =  17441.6
NONE M2-M3 = 6019.6
DOWN FROM 2008 NONE M2-M3 = 6044.1.  
NONE M2-M3 IS THE POWER HOUSE OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM  ( ECON 689)

[bimetalaupt]

ME KNOW HOW: WANT TO KNOW WHEN..  FOR M3 IT IS A PHASE DELAY OF 12 TO 18 MONTHS.  RECOVERY IS RIGHT ON TIME FOR Q2 2015 RECOVERY AND A FEDERAL RESERVE INCREASE IN THE OVERNIGHT RATE.  NOW FOR THE LIBOR OVERNIGHT RATE WITH M3 FOR ENGLAND: WHO KNOWS WITH SCOTLAND GOING FREE AGAIN AFTER ALMOST A THOUSAND YEAR CAPTURE.
DATES.............M3.............INCREASE
12/31/2012......15604.59......2% Y/Y 6/2012
12/31/2013......16883.08........Y/Y FIRST 8% WAS 6/2013 OR + 12 MONTH = 6/2014 OR 18 MONTHS = 1/2015  
8/22/2014........17404.06.......Y/Y ...6.9 
THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS ALWAYS ABOUT THREE TO SIX MONTHS BEHIND THE CURVE : SO ACTION FROM MARCH TO JUNE 2015 TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT RATES INTERJECTION FROM REVERSE REPO'S IS POSSIBLE: WATCH OUT FOR BLACK SWANS OF THE ECB AND THE PIIGS. THE EUB RESCUE FUND IS OUT OF EURO'S TO RESCUE THE PIIGS.  
DATA FROM 
www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html
Just a thought from MMXVI-ALPHA  (TEST MODEL TO TEST THE STRESS MARKETS FOR BONDS AND STOCKS(DJIA,DJUA AND DJTM))
BiMetalAuPt
CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No (^TNX) -Chicago Options
2.40 Down 0.00(0.17%) Aug 22
 Treasury Yield 30 Years (^TYX) -Chicago Options  Follow
3.16 Down 0.04(1.10%) Aug 22

Fed in 'real debate' on rate hike in early to mid-2015: Lockhart
finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-real-debate-rate-hike-152152609.html
JACKSON HOLE Wyo. (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve is focused on an initial interest rate hike between the first quarter and the middle of next year, with possible changes in its main policy statement as soon as next month, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said on Saturday.

"It is reasonable with the IMPROVING data to begin to anticipate a change in the basic interest rate policy and, therefore, it is quite a reasonable debate as to whether that ought to be early 2015 or mid-2015 or even later," Lockhart told Reuters in an interview here. "The debate is real."

Lockhart said he CONTINUES to forecast a rate increase in mid-2015, with economic growth hovering around 3 percent, and that he feels it is "still early" to change the central bank’s main policy statement.

That statement says a rate increase won’t be appropriate until a "considerable time" after the central bank's bond purchases end this fall, and that there is still "significant underutilization" of labor.

"Even with good data, and we have had a run of very good data on balance, you still can only draw tentative conclusions," said Lockhart, who does not presently have a vote on the Fed's main policy committee.

He added that he did not expect progress towards the Fed’s dual goals of 2 percent inflation and maximum employment to be "ELECTRICALLY fast."

"It is going to be gradual,” he said, speaking on the sidelines of the Fed's annual central banking conference.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Aug 22, 2014 22:07:10 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Aug 22, 2014 20:45:04 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Good points Bruce. The differce being that this time around the USA is already industrialized and so is China. It's going to be a long ride out of this next speed bump. We will have to return to the other practice that was going on in the 1840's - industrialist will have to put their massive cash piles to work to increase the economy because govt stimulus isn't going to cut it anymore.

A++++,

THANK-YOU FOR YOUR KIND WORDS,
YES, THE LONG TERM GROWTH IN THE ECONOMY IS CARRIED ON THE BACK OF THE SAVER.  DR. FISCHER'S PARADOX: SAVING IN THE SHORT TERM REDUCES PERSONAL SPENDING -beer-BUT INCREASES M3 AND LONG TERM INVESTMENTS .  WHEN DR. POOLE GAVE HIS SPEECH ABOUT SUB-PRIME LENDING IS UNDER CONTROL: SAVING WAS 2.5% ( NOV 2007) BUT TODAY IT IS 5.3%(JUNE 2014) .  
WE COULD USE 10% SAVINGS RATE FOR M3 AND THE ECONOMIES LONG TERM INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT.

KASH IS KING: GOT TO LOVE THE USD...

JUST A THOUGHT,
BiMetalAuPt
relationship of NONE M2-M3 to industrial development :notes from Econ 689, Tarleton MBA Advanced study on advantages of a strong savings development in an Industrial Nation.  
M3 =  17441.6
NONE M2-M3 = 6019.6
DOWN FROM 2008 NONE M2-M3 = 6044.1.  
NONE M2-M3 IS THE POWER HOUSE OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM  ( ECON 689)

You are very welcome, sir.

Take this a step further. During the 1840's the only savers were the very wealthy, not unlike today. However, the wealth that the wealthy possesses now, was what wealthy people in the 1840's dreamed of; and the number of wealthy people per capita has grown exponentially to boot.

What has caused the increased savings rate since 2007? Tough times! What will protect the US economy from the damage that is coming from Europe's and China's financial crisis? Excess reserves in banks, fat balance sheets of corporations, and wealthy savers. So further tough times will force people to save more. While the common person will constrain from shopping, it's the paradox of savings - as you mentioned above - and like we have talked about for 2-3 years. AKA, the LONG TERM longevity in the North American economy.

Big projects in the 1840's - like building the rail road - were a crap shoot at best. Rebuilding blighted neighborhood has a proven track record, take the hype of Brooklyn right now for instance. Look at the high speed rail that is talked about in TX - all private capital.

Bottom line, big problems in the global economy are developing and are in full view in some cases, but there is enough wealth in the USA to push through tribulating times.

[dothedd]

Dollar Strengthens to 11-Month High on Fed Outlook; Krona Slides
Aug 25, 2014

www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-08-24/dollar-climbs-on-fed-ukraine-reaches-11-month-high-versus-euro.html

[jarrett1]

Yes this is the pattern...did you doubt this would occur?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

This is always a good sign... Chinese banks on debt mission to Europe. Especially because Germany’s Yield Turns Negative and the ECB is talking QE,even before their "bank rescue" plan takes hold in September. I guess lower German business sentiment because of Geo political tensions cause by a maniac is really starting to be a problem?

[tyfighter3]

The EU must be playing Golf. LOL

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Going for that negative score!

[tyfighter3]

There is nothing like being uder par. LOL

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

In this case a hazard - isn't - adding to their score either, haha.

[bimetalaupt]

MORE ON THE BLACK SWAN R& PROJECT KNOW AS MMXVI-ALPHA.
LAST TEST RUN (8/28/2014)


total sm yield 1.75%
M3 growth 6.90%
combination 8.65000000000%
erp 5.650000000000% BUY SIGNAL > 6.001%
After 2 sd+ correction then
SMALL CAPS 10.5885000000%
MAR 10.25050000000%

risk/return 205.02356621818%
return 9.65%

FOR MMXVI-ALPHA LAST RUN:what if we have a "MAJOR BLACK SWAN " ?:THEN

RIDK 5319.1425
20458.7243485924
UPSIDE 3379.15434859243
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK 63.5281786226%
djia risk/return 1.5741046283416
Highest risk DJIA 15139.5818485924
PROF/LOSS PER$1.00 -$0.36  

THE SYSTEM IS LOOKING FOR > 8% GROWTH IN M3 WITH AN INCREASED TLT TO CREATE BOND CONCENTRATION ( DENSITY) > 55%.
Guy ON THE" FAST MONEY SHOW" THIS AFTERNOON AGREED WITH MMXVI-ALPHA FOR TLT COULD  YIELD( 10 YEAR T-NOTE) < 2% BY NOVEMBER. 

ALSO CREAMER ON YESTERDAY'S SHOW REPEATED WHAT I HAVE SAID BEFORE: STICK WITH YOUR MODEL, BE DISCIPLINED. 
Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I was having a conversation with a buddy the other day. It made me realize something. In the past a black swan was classified as a single event. A global conflict, mixed with the Chinese property bubble coming unglued that would cause a bigger depression in Europe is two or three major events..

As you say just a thought,

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 28, 2014 21:51:27 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I was having a conversation with a buddy the other day. It made me realize something. In the past a black swan was classified as a single event. A global conflict, mixed with the Chinese property bubble coming unglued that would cause a bigger depression in Europe is two or three major events..

As you say just a thought,

A++++,
YES!!!!!, my study for the next generation stress test ( AKA MMXVI-Alpha)makes me understand how fragile the world's economics are. Like the worms, only the eggs will serve  the "economic Winter" of the Iceland Eruptions!  Funny how the debt free farmers made it through the "great recession" and the Trillion dollar financial firms like AIG or CIT needed cash bail out.  

Texas Farm Credit bank is AAA or A++ rated. Yes, Food is important for national defense.   

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

,

Speaking of little worms, son #1 has been out with buddies til dark. Last week of holidays might as well let him have fun.

Yes, also just like worms through winter it's the ones with eggs in their breadbaskets that are going to make it through. Why do you think we have been pushing robots so frantically? Immigration. Time for others to get it and not just run for cover here, then tells us that they should make our world like theirs that is falling apart. They have tried to imitate us but they forgot freedom. Time to pay the piper - thanks JC!

God bless,

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Well let's see here, as we were talking about it .. JP morgan is saying that Russia faces a Lehman like moment, if the situation - that has gotten worse - get's worse.

The Chinese property market - that should be on every investors radar as top concern for trouble, is being ignored by and large... Since a currency crisis is what really set off trouble last time around, well you get the idea..

Both of these situations tie into the global conflict that we are marching towards, that would add a geopolitical third layer to these financial crisis type situations. Then of course there is a tie in to Europe....

There is also a few crazy diseases floating around out there, but for know we will just stick to the three layer black swan cake that looks to be thrown into Europe's face. That's not even counting the fact that Europe is now on high alert for a terror attack.

KASH IS KING!!!

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 30, 2014 20:05:46 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Well let's see here, as we were talking about it .. JP morgan is saying that Russia faces a Lehman like moment, if the situation - that has gotten worse - get's worse.

The Chinese property market - that should be on every investors radar as top concern for trouble, is being ignored by and large... Since a currency crisis is what really set off trouble last time around, well you get the idea..

Both of these situations tie into the global conflict that we are marching towards, that would add a geopolitical third layer to these financial crisis type situations. Then of course there is a tie in to Europe....

There is also a few crazy diseases floating around out there, but for know we will just stick to the three layer black swan cake that looks to be thrown into Europe's face. That's not even counting the fact that Europe is now on high alert for a terror attack.

KASH IS KING!!!

 I.S. is the " Most Likely " Black Swan: in BLACK".  Boeing is the White Knight.  Will the Nations near and dear (Israeli) to the hears with ears be our developer's developer for peace? WILL Koors ( Israeli arms maker) hide in the Koors bags? Hide the high tech interlinear communicators' of the future: like a cell phone on steroids.    

What more can you say about the events that produced the fast growing I.S.: I.S. has produced nothing of value.  They have produced some strange "BED FELLOWS" : THE AMERICAN'S FIGHTING FOR I.S. COULD BE THE NEXT TARGET!! WHERE DO THEY THINK THEY WILL GET FOOD FROM AS THEY MURDER ALL THE FARMERS?  Do I hear U.S.A.?

Do we hear the next 'DEPRESSION " in the oil patch?  The world is awash in oil because of the depression in Russia and China.  The E.U has a real Banking problem.  European  Investment Bank it self needs $300 Billion USD to be able to carry the E.U.'s solvent savers from destruction.   Now add problems with the I.S. bombing London or Paris? 

This will be a very dangerous week for investors: blood in the street's are always a time to allocate cash to risk.  Expert 50/50 re-arranging reallocation system always put me in harms way and betting against the market momentum. 

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

[tyfighter3]

Yes Bruce, lately I've been sharpening my pencil, checking my shoping list over for those bargains that I know are out there. lol

[bimetalaupt]

Sept 14, 2014 0:42:58 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

Yes Bruce, lately I've been sharpening my pencil, checking my shoping list over for those bargains that I know are out there. lol

T3,

OK: Call it the bottom for growth stocks in Germany, Luxembourg and France.  I moved a retirement fund to European Growth Fund (Investco). It is a long term tax thing.

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sept 13, 2014 17:43:14 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Aug 30, 2014 20:05:46 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Well let's see here, as we were talking about it .. JP morgan is saying that Russia faces a Lehman like moment, if the situation - that has gotten worse - get's worse.

The Chinese property market - that should be on every investors radar as top concern for trouble, is being ignored by and large... Since a currency crisis is what really set off trouble last time around, well you get the idea..

Both of these situations tie into the global conflict that we are marching towards, that would add a geopolitical third layer to these financial crisis type situations. Then of course there is a tie in to Europe....

There is also a few crazy diseases floating around out there, but for know we will just stick to the three layer black swan cake that looks to be thrown into Europe's face. That's not even counting the fact that Europe is now on high alert for a terror attack.

KASH IS KING!!!

 I.S. is the " Most Likely " Black Swan: in BLACK".  Boeing is the White Knight.  Will the Nations near and dear (Israeli) to the hears with ears be our developer's developer for peace? WILL Koors ( Israeli arms maker) hide in the Koors bags? Hide the high tech interlinear communicators' of the future: like a cell phone on steroids.    

What more can you say about the events that produced the fast growing I.S.: I.S. has produced nothing of value.  They have produced some strange "BED FELLOWS" : THE AMERICAN'S FIGHTING FOR I.S. COULD BE THE NEXT TARGET!! WHERE DO THEY THINK THEY WILL GET FOOD FROM AS THEY MURDER ALL THE FARMERS?  Do I hear U.S.A.?

Do we hear the next 'DEPRESSION " in the oil patch?  The world is awash in oil because of the depression in Russia and China.  The E.U has a real Banking problem.  European  Investment Bank it self needs $300 Billion USD to be able to carry the E.U.'s solvent savers from destruction.   Now add problems with the I.S. bombing London or Paris? 

This will be a very dangerous week for investors: blood in the street's are always a time to allocate cash to risk.  Expert 50/50 re-arranging reallocation system always put me in harms way and betting against the market momentum. 

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

Latest figure is 300 million a year profit for the I.S. They are the most well funded "terrorist" organization since the caliphs that ran the mid east for the last 1300 years. They produce oil - like their Arab supporters - and have metric ton loads of wheat from Syria. They are a govt and i think the media wants us to believe that they aren't supported to the extent they are across the region and further.. For instance, Boko Harams controls an area the size of Ireland!

I call BS that there are fighters "yearning" to come home. The CIA underestimated their numbers at 31k and I think they are doing the same now. Like you said, they want to attack Paris and London.. What better way than with disenfranchised sleepers that want to return home?

Yes the global economy is heading for a depression because of conflict(Ukraine!) and the EU, however, conflict will need oil. Yes, China doesn't care about their housing market because the rich are in control, insulate, and ready to move out of the country. Plus they know they are sending ground troops.

Humans have created massive bubbles and tensions across the globe. Chickens come home to roost.

History is being made..

[bimetalaupt]

A++++,

Did you say there is their blood in the streets?  Well much of the growth in growth stocks are from the USA.  Gutsy buy to say the least but I was addressing T3 question.  My time frame is 3 years then 10% annual capital payments to my have fun and play & play with my worm development fund. The average increase in VALUE COULD BE 12% FOR 13 YEARS.

Just a gutsy bet as well as a thought,

BiMetalAuPt 

FOR GREEK'S

EGINX

ALPHA-3 YEAR.........5.04

BETA 3 YEARS.........0.83

MEANS ANNUAL RETURN......1.12

CASH.................................11.97%

SHARP RATIO......................0.98

STANARD DEVIATION...........13.61

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I hear ya . Considering that just your art collection trumps my entire net worth, I think you risk tolerance is a bit more than mine.

No, I don't think drone strikes and working with this Arab "coalition" is the end of the mid east war....

What I'm saying is - we ain't seen nothing yet...

Sept 10, 2014 23:28:50 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

the fact of the matter is that we are already in a global conflict, it's just a matter of time before the reality sets in.

Sept 13, 2014 0:26:45 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I would bet at the start of WW1&2 it didn't register that it was the start if Ww1&2...

As you say, just some thoughts. God bless,

Iraq Conference Opens in Paris as France Urges 'Global' Fight on Jihadists
www.newsweek.com/iraq-conference-opens-paris-france-urges-global-fight-jihadists-270349

Russia: We warned the Yanks about Islamic State

Russian officials fear regional war may turn into a world war.


A joke making the rounds among Russian officials and hacks who take a keen interest in what is going on in the Middle East these days goes something like this: How will the Yanks deal with the Islamic State group? They will create "Islamic State 2", a bigger and better armed group, and let it deal with the original Islamic State group. And what happens when "Islamic State 2" turns against them as it happened with the original Islamic State? They will create "Islamic State 3", and so on.

The irony is - of course - that I have been saying since March that Putin's actions have turned this from a regional, to a world conflict... To be a contrarian you have to be willing to make uncomfortable moves until the wave moves one in the right direction.

As you say, JAT. God bless,

[bimetalaupt]

Be "where" of Jewish Blonds from Brooklyn with your checkbook!!! 

Fed trims QE, still sees low rates for considerable time

The U.S. Federal Reserve will reduce its purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage backed securities by another $10 billion to a total of $15 billion next month and expects to conclude its asset purchase program at its next meeting.
However, the Fed repeated its guidance that it still expects to maintain its current federal funds rate of zero to 0.25 percent for "a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends," a statement that will surprise financial markets and economists that were expecting the Fed to alter its language.
Since December 2012, the Fed has used the phrase of maintaining its current rate for "considerable time" after its quantitative easing program ends, and speculation in financial markets reached fever pitch in recent weeks over how the Fed would alter its guidance.
But the Fed said the economy had been expanding "at a moderate pace" since July and repeated that there remains "significant underutilization of labour resources" despite an improvement in labor market conditions - a clear signal to markets that it does not seen any real price pressure from wages.
"Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective," the Fed's policy making body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), said in its statement after a two-day meeting.
"The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced and judges that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat since early last year," the Fed said.( called world wide decrease in oil and gas cost: BCL)

Read more »

We are watching the Russian and I.S. development of future "Black Swan events" with about PROF/LOSS PER$1.00 -$0.37 risk per $$$$$$ invested.  With is in mind I have moved some od my retirement money to growth Holdings to the E.U. + GB!!!RIDK!!!

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

RIDK.................................................. 5391.5925
tangent growth target for DJIA................20566.0732729663
UPSIDE............................................... 3409.22327296634
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK............................... 63.2322133575%
djia risk/return...................................... 1.5814723965875
Highest risk DJIA................................... 15174.4807729663
PROF/LOSS PER$1.00................................. -$0.37

[bimetalaupt]

Warning: watch out for Brooklyn JEWISH Blonds in Tight Black Suits: Watch your $$$$$$!

Swiss maintain franc cap, see higher deflation risk

  The Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintained its upper limit on the Swiss franc's exchange rate and the target range for three-month Libor at zero to 0.25 percent, and reduced its inflation forecast due to "the deterioration in the global economic outlook and slower growth in Switzerland."
The SNB, which imposed a cap on the Swiss franc of 1.20 euros in September 2011, also repeated that it still views the franc's exchange rate as high and it would continue to enforce its exchange rate target "with utmost determination" and is "prepared to purchase foreign currency in unlimited quantities."
"If necessary, it will take further measures immediately," the SNB said, concerned that rising geopolitical risks are putting upward pressure on the franc from investors seeking safe haven.
The Swiss franc was trading at 1.208 to the euro today, up from 1.23 at the start of the year. The last time the SNB intervened in currency markets was in September 2012.
The SNB maintained its forecast for inflation this year of 0.1 percent but cut its 2015 forecast to 0.2 percent from 0.3 percent forecast in June. For 2016 the inflation forecast was slashed to 0.5 percent from 0.9 percent.
"For Switzerland, the risk of deflation has thus increased again," the SNB said, adding its forecast was based on three-month Libor of zero over the next three years and a weakening Swiss franc.
The SNB was downbeat about the global economy, saying growth will be weaker in coming quarters than it had expected and it remains vulnerable to setbacks, with the possibility that geopolitical tensions may weigh on confidence.

Read more »

www.centralbanknews.info/

IT IS CLEAR THEY ARE WORRED ABOUT WORLDWIDE DEPRESSION IN PRICES FOR THE REALITY OF THE DATA IS REAL BAD.  THIS WILL UNDERMINE THE WORLD WIDE SOLVENT BANKING SYSTEM.  THIS REINFORTED THE WORRY IN THE ECB AND EIB .

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

You mean insolvent, right?

[bimetalaupt]

Sept 18, 2014 23:41:57 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

You mean insolvent, right?

A++++,

What the Swiss were talking about was like the domino effect of depressed asset value amplifying through the bond market after Lehman Failed.  This effected the solvent banks as the insurance firms went insolvent as the bonds were dumped on the market at any price.  Then the real asset market crashed as many assets were put on the open market at a some price: any price the market was simply tragic.  China has this problem today.  Sorry, my writing was not very clear.

IT IS CLEAR THEY ARE WORRED ABOUT WORLDWIDE DEPRESSION IN PRICES FOR THE REALITY OF THE DATA IS REAL BAD. THIS WILL UNDERMINE THE WORLD WIDE SOLVENT BANKING SYSTEM. THIS REINFORTED THE WORRY IN THE ECB AND EIB .

"For Switzerland, the risk of deflation has thus increased again," the SNB said, adding its forecast was based on three-month Libor of zero over the next three years and a weakening Swiss franc.
The SNB was downbeat about the global economy, saying growth will be weaker in coming quarters than it had expected and it remains vulnerable to setbacks, with the possibility that geopolitical tensions may weigh on confidence.

If the banks are insolvent they need to be closed ;like they did in the 1930's to save the solvent banks.  The E.U. has not cleaned up the system from insolvent banks.

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

Looks like the NO vote won.  Keep the Union Jack.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

,

No need to apologize, I misunderstood what you were conveying through the thoughts of the Swiss. Makes total sense now... Essentially they have already start closing insolvent banks by trying to create these bad banks. Seems like they are wishing in one hand and...

Seems like the call we made about the global economy coming to a stall this year is now being echoed by most now - a long way from their calls earlier this year about acceleration, eh? Now, as the Swiss point out, the second phase will be the geopolitical issues sinking in that we have been talking about. Pretty soon the contrarian voices will be back to saying things are starting to come around.

God bless you and yours,

[bimetalaupt]

The statement from Israeli Central Bank  said about the same thing: zero inflation and lower GDP growth.  Interest remains almost ZERO:0.025%

Israel holds rate, 2014 growth seen at 2.3% vs 2.9%
Israel's central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.25 percent, as expected, citing the support to economic activity from the cumulative reduction of 50 basis points in July and August.
The Bank of Israel (BOI), which has cut its rate by a total of 75 basis points this year, also updated its forecast, with inflation in the next four quarters seen at 1.0 percent, the interest rates remaining at 0.25 percent, the economy growing by 2.3 percent this year (down from a previous forecast of 2.9 percent) and inflation still seen at 3.0 percent in 2015.
The BOI issued the following statement:


"Inflation data: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August declined by 0.1 percent, in contrast to forecasters’ projections for an increase of 0.2 percent, on average. There were significant increases in the fruit and vegetables, housing, and culture and entertainment components, and marked declines in the clothing and footwear and the transport and communication components. The inflation rate over the preceding 12 months was zero percent, compared with 0.3 percent over the 12 months ended in July. The tradable goods components of the CPI declined by 2.0 percent over the past 12 months. In contrast, there was a slight rise in the rate of increase in components consisting of nontradable products, and they increased by 1.2 percent, compared with 1.1 percent in the previous month.
Read more »

ON A MORE BROAD WORLD VIEW..MORE OF THE SAME.

Last week all 10 central banks that considered their monetary policy stance left rates unchanged, something that has only occurred once before this year.
Apart from last week, only week 15 – from April 7 to April 11 – saw all central banks maintain their rates, illustrating just how active monetary policy has become since the global financial crises.
Between two and 15 monetary policy committees at central banks have deliberated their policy stance each and every week this year, with one to five central banks changing their rates.
But last week all 10 central banks maintained their rates, reflecting the renewed uncertainty over the direction of the global economy and the timing of a normalization of U.S. monetary policy.
Through the first 38 weeks of this year, the 90 central banks followed by Central Bank News have cut their policy rates 48 times, or 13.8 percent of all policy decisions, up from 12 percent at the end of the first half and 12 percent at the end of the first quarter.
Meanwhile, rates have been raised 36 times, or 10.2 percent of all policy decisions, up from 9.3 percent at the end of June and 8.7 percent at the end of March.

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Well , it looks like inflation is a non issue at this point. How many times have you mentioned Austrian banks again?

-Eastern European Risks For Austrian Banks
-Italy to cut 2014, 2015 GDP forecasts,

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The stall.. Check.
Geopolitical Issues starting to sink in... Check.
Interest rates being held in check due to word socioeconomic/geopolitical issues... Check.
Deflation setting in.. Factories Cutting Prices Toughens ECB Deflation Battle... Check.

Have fun relying on global growth over the next few years.

[damnotagain]

seven swans a swimming ... Five golden rings !