Ukraine

[Spellbound454]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26392958

So, things are hotting up in the Ukraine...Russia has landed a possible 2000 troops.... presumably to protect their Black Sea fleet.
The Russian population of the Crimea... and the ousted president are calling for the protection of Russia.
Obama and the EU appear to be supporting the interim government and advising against invading Ukraine sovereign territory.

I'm not even sure the EU wants an extreme right wing government which needs and IMF bailout on their hands...the Ukraine isn't a prize for anyone.

So what next? Civil war?

[marvholly]

I am finding the entire situation quite frightening. I am worried about possible US and/or EU involvment both if we do AND if we don't. i suspect the 'final solution' may end up being a divided country ala how Germany was or Korea is.



The sad thing is going to be the sheer number of dead and severly wounded no matter what - see Syria.

[Tennesseer]

After a bit of a battle, the Crimean peninsula will be ceded to and absorbed by Russia.

[djAdvocate]

i doubt Russia will do much, but i could be wrong.  it is mostly sabre rattling.

[kent]

Russia won't do anything?  I wouldn't be so sure about that. Putin has zero respect or concerns for anything and everything Obama has to say about the situation (or anything else for that matter).  Putin knows what he's dealing with and indecisive statements of "concern" and the like will do nothing to dissuade him.

Taken from an "approved" site:

www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/russias-upper-house-approves-putins-military-intervention-plan-n41861

Approves Putin's Military Intervention Plan

By Alastair Jamieson and Jim Maceda
 
MOSCOW — The Russian parliament’s upper house unanimously approved President Vladimir Putin’s request for a military intervention in Ukraine, according to a Kremlin statement Saturday.

The approval came within two hours of Putin appealing to parliament saying the move is needed to protect ethnic Russians and the personnel of a Russian military base in Ukraine's strategic region of Crimea.

 

[djAdvocate]

Mar 1, 2014 12:04:54 GMT -5 kent said:

Russia won't do anything?  I wouldn't be so sure about that. Putin has zero respect or concerns for anything and everything Obama has to say about the situation (or anything else for that matter).  Putin knows what he's dealing with and indecisive statements of "concern" and the like will do nothing to dissuade him.

Taken from an "approved" site:

www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/russias-upper-house-approves-putins-military-intervention-plan-n41861

Approves Putin's Military Intervention Plan

By Alastair Jamieson and Jim Maceda
 
MOSCOW — The Russian parliament’s upper house unanimously approved President Vladimir Putin’s request for a military intervention in Ukraine, according to a Kremlin statement Saturday.

The approval came within two hours of Putin appealing to parliament saying the move is needed to protect ethnic Russians and the personnel of a Russian military base in Ukraine's strategic region of Crimea.

 

kent: i never said russia would not do ANYTHING.  i said it won't do MUCH.

if you disagree, great.  we'll see.

edit: there is nothing in the resolution that indicates that they WILL do MUCH.  they don't have a lot of support outside of Crimea.  putting boots on the ground there would result in a very serious armed conflict.  i don't think much of Russia, but i doubt they will commit major resources to such an endeavor.

[the flying reindeer]

From my daily bulletin: The Russian Parliament's upper house has unanimously voted yes to Putin's request to use military force in Ukraine to supposedly save the lives or Russians citizens and military personnel in Crimea (home to a major Russian naval base at Sevastopol). Crimea is an autonomous republic of Ukraine with an ethnic Russian majority. It's the last large bastion of opposition to Ukraine's new political leadership after President Viktor Yanukovych's ouster.Ukraine's government suspects Moscow of fomenting separatist tensions in the autonomous region -- and it has accused Russia of having already sent troops into its territory after about 300 gunmen wearing Russian Special Forces uniforms attempted to take over the Sevastopol unit of the Ukrainian Coast Guard.. I hope the world's nightmare isn't provoked by all this Russian military blustering - NATO vs. Russia armed warfare.

[Spellbound454]

Its looking increasingly likely that Russia will invade the Crimean part of the Ukraine as they have interests in that area.
...and we (EU US) aren't going to do anything about it other than make furious noises.

Anyone who is anyone is headed off to the Ukraine for talks.
Problem is, we guaranteed a peace deal which was overridden....thus the interim government is as a result of a coup.

Putin seems to be playing a double game here.
He has the legitimacy from his parliament to invade but may not be willing to commit as much as the Russian Ukrainians would like.

The situation seems quite fluid at the moment.

[kent]

kent: i never said russia would not do ANYTHING. i said it won't do MUCH.

if you disagree, great. we'll see.

edit: there is nothing in the resolution that indicates that they WILL do MUCH. they don't have a lot of support outside of Crimea. putting boots on the ground there would result in a very serious armed conflict. i don't think much of Russia, but i doubt they will commit major resources to such an endeavor.

Sorry DJ, I didn't mean to twist your wording.  I hope YOU are right about this one and that I'm totally out in the weeds but I really believe this situation shows several signs of spinning out of control. 

We have a megalomaniac ex-KGB guy that wants more than anything to "restore" the USSR to it's former "glory" facing down an administration that, at least for me, seems incapable of rising to the occasion and playing hardball.

If Putin can pull this off without a major confrontation, he will likely be looking at doing the same thing with Moldova, Slovakia, Belarus, etc.  There is "history" surrounding this type of approach.

Again, I really do hope you're right.

[Spellbound454]

Problem is.....Russia has sanctioned a boots-on-the-ground amendment supposedly to protect Russian Ukrainians and their own interests..

From what? They aren't under any threat as far as I can see.

The Ukrainian parliament ousted the president...as a parliament are entitled to do....It wasn't/isn't a dictatorship.....or a Russian satellite.
Russia doesn't get to choose who is in control of a another sovereign country.......The pleas of the ousted president are completely invalid...He is miffed... but so what?

Boots on the ground would be an illegal invasion according to UN charter.....but the UN is toothless because Russia would just veto any resolution 

[djAdvocate]

Mar 1, 2014 12:55:10 GMT -5 kent said:

kent: i never said russia would not do ANYTHING. i said it won't do MUCH.

if you disagree, great. we'll see.

edit: there is nothing in the resolution that indicates that they WILL do MUCH. they don't have a lot of support outside of Crimea. putting boots on the ground there would result in a very serious armed conflict. i don't think much of Russia, but i doubt they will commit major resources to such an endeavor.

Sorry DJ, I didn't mean to twist your wording.  I hope YOU are right about this one and that I'm totally out in the weeds but I really believe this situation shows several signs of spinning out of control. 

We have a megalomaniac ex-KGB guy that wants more than anything to "restore" the USSR to it's former "glory" facing down an administration that, at least for me, seems incapable of rising to the occasion and playing hardball.

it worries me far more that he might.

If Putin can pull this off without a major confrontation, he will likely be looking at doing the same thing with Moldova, Slovakia, Belarus, etc.  There is "history" surrounding this type of approach.

Again, I really do hope you're right.

me too.

[djAdvocate]

Mar 1, 2014 13:57:34 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

Problem is.....Russia has sanctioned a boots-on-the-ground amendment supposedly to protect Russian Ukrainians and their own interests..

i don't believe that is correct, based on the OP.  it specifically states this is to protect RUSSIAN assets in Crimea.

[Spellbound454]

They want to protect the Black Sea fleet dj....in Sevastopol
but I can't see that it is under threat. Its legally there under an already existing agreement.

Russian Ukrainians might want to support Russia......and they may well be annoyed about the ousting of the Russian backed president.

but they aren't in Russia...they are in the Ukraine and must be bound by the laws of the Ukraine.

[Spellbound454]

Ukrainian soldiers are on full combat alert....and if Russia sends troops... there will be a war
www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/01/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA1Q1E820140301

[djAdvocate]

Mar 1, 2014 17:16:36 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

Ukrainian soldiers are on full combat alert....and if Russia sends troops... there will be a war
www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/01/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA1Q1E820140301

i am sure Russia is quite aware of that.

[truthbound]

There's no proof Russia has invaded anything yet. The soldiers pictured are in nondescript uniforms. And Fox in their hilarity keep looping the same 20 seconds of video yet fail to mention none of the 'invaders' have magazines loaded in their weapons

[Spellbound454]

Russia now has control of the Crimea....they are digging in at the border and it looks like they are going to annexe it.
Question is, will they move East and take more Ukrainian states which have large numbers of Russian speakers?

No point in discussing whether they are going to something.....they have already done it.

Ukraine is going to run out of money shortly.....and its future as an autonomous state at all has to be in doubt.



Essentially Putin can do what he wants.....and there is not a lot we can do about it. We don't have a dog in this fight.

[marvholly]

I am sure the political talking heads are going to have a field day on TV this morning OR they will run for the hills (be unavailable, in meetings.....). Going to be an interesting bunch of days ahead.

[Spellbound454]

US, Canada, UK and France have pulled out of the G8 talks in Sochi.....but other than that what is to be done?

Ukrainians can't really fight the Russian army.

[djAdvocate]

Mar 2, 2014 6:12:14 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

Russia now has control of the Crimea....they are digging in at the border and it looks like they are going to annexe it.
Question is, will they move East and take more Ukrainian states which have large numbers of Russian speakers?

again, i doubt it.  there are only two regions of the Ukraine that have large numbers (a majority) of ethnic Russians.  one is Crimea.  the other doesn't have a Russian base in it, or a port.  it is landlocked.  strategically, this penninsula is far more important to Russia than the rest of the region.  and it is a much bigger lift to do anything outside of Crimea.

No point in discussing whether they are going to something.....they have already done it.

done what?

Ukraine is going to run out of money shortly.....and its future as an autonomous state at all has to be in doubt.

not really.  Iraq ran out of money in the mid-90's due to boycott.  it took almost a decade before they lost autonomy.

Essentially Putin can do what he wants.....and there is not a lot we can do about it. We don't have a dog in this fight.

we don't have a dog in hardly any fights- but it has never stopped us before.

[the flying reindeer]

Essentially Putin can do what he wants.....and there is not a lot we can do about it

According to Secretary of State John Kerry:
G8 nations and some other countries are "prepared to go to the hilt to isolate Russia" with a "broad array of options" available."They're prepared to put sanctions in place, they're prepared to isolate Russia economically, the ruble is already going down. Russia has major economic challenges." Kerry mentioned visa bans, asset freezes, trade isolation, investment changes as possible steps, adding: "American businesses may well want to start thinking twice about whether they want to do business with a country that behaves like this."

[kent]

Mar 2, 2014 13:33:30 GMT -5 the flying reindeer said:

Essentially Putin can do what he wants.....and there is not a lot we can do about it

According to Secretary of State John Kerry:
G8 nations and some other countries are "prepared to go to the hilt to isolate Russia" with a "broad array of options" available."They're prepared to put sanctions in place, they're prepared to isolate Russia economically, the ruble is already going down. Russia has major economic challenges." Kerry mentioned visa bans, asset freezes, trade isolation, investment changes as possible steps, adding: "American businesses may well want to start thinking twice about whether they want to do business with a country that behaves like this."

And in response, Putin will cut off the Russian natural gas supply to Europe and that seems to be far more effective than all that really "tough" stuff Kerry is talking about.

As far as I'm concerned, we should keep our nose out of it - why are we the "world police" and "world bail out" franchise?  I'm sick of it. 

[zibazinski]

When you've had two secretary of states that are jokes and a joke for a president, as Putin, I'd laugh, too.

[djAdvocate]

Mar 2, 2014 13:42:17 GMT -5 kent said:

Mar 2, 2014 13:33:30 GMT -5 the flying reindeer said:

According to Secretary of State John Kerry:
G8 nations and some other countries are "prepared to go to the hilt to isolate Russia" with a "broad array of options" available."They're prepared to put sanctions in place, they're prepared to isolate Russia economically, the ruble is already going down. Russia has major economic challenges." Kerry mentioned visa bans, asset freezes, trade isolation, investment changes as possible steps, adding: "American businesses may well want to start thinking twice about whether they want to do business with a country that behaves like this."

And in response, Putin will cut off the Russian natural gas supply to Europe and that seems to be far more effective than all that really "tough" stuff Kerry is talking about.

As far as I'm concerned, we should keep our nose out of it - why are we the "world police" and "world bail out" franchise?  I'm sick of it. 

as am i.

[Deleted]

I just received an email that was interesting. It was from my relative who has relatives in Ukraine and is also friends with a Russian woman.


"She(this Russian woman) has a grown son who lives in Moscow and he just received notification that all Russian men up to the age of 35 are to register and be made available for military service in preparation for... going to war with the US and Great Britian."

Has anyone heard anything in this regards?

[Tennesseer]

I have read nothing of the sort.   I would think some blistering news such as that would be all over the Internet and television news.

[Deleted]

Mar 3, 2014 9:17:31 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

I have read nothing of the sort.   I would think some blistering news such as that would be all over the Internet and television news.

Neither have I and knowing how upset it is making her, I don't understand why her son would tell her this, if it were not true. 

[Tennesseer]

Mar 3, 2014 9:58:29 GMT -5 @lonewolf said:

Mar 3, 2014 9:17:31 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

I have read nothing of the sort.   I would think some blistering news such as that would be all over the Internet and television news.

Neither have I and knowing how upset it is making her, I don't understand why her son would tell her this, if it were not true. 

Lone-I can almost guarantee you the streets of Russia are full of unfounded rumors.  

[mmhmm]

All Russian men have to register at age 16.  I think they remain in the reserves until age 50, but that may have changed.  The woman's son should be already registered but inactive.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Mar 3, 2014 9:58:29 GMT -5 @lonewolf said:

Mar 3, 2014 9:17:31 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

I have read nothing of the sort.   I would think some blistering news such as that would be all over the Internet and television news.

Neither have I and knowing how upset it is making her, I don't understand why her son would tell her this, if it were not true. 

Russia views the Saudis part of the US regime? That would be my guess...

Saudi Arabia hits back at Russia criticism on Syria arms