It all depends

[comokate]

There are people who believe the economy is booming along again, and that the "Great Recession" ended over a year ago. I believe it's all relative to where you are, in every sense. It isn't a matter of "gloom and doom", it's where you find yourself in this economy, what is your own personal reality.
That's why it can be so helpful to get many different perspectives, from many different areas around the country. I'm up in the Twin Cities which was hit by the double whammy of job loss and being one of the biggest areas for predatory lending. Housing is falling off the cliff here and it has been for a while. While this may not seem of much significance to Wall Street investors, to the people on Main Street for whom the biggest asset they own is/was their house, it is devastating.
New faces of housing slump: Seattle, Minneapolis, Atlanta?

In the past year, reports the New York Times, Seattle has seen a bigger decline than Las Vegas, Minneapolis a bigger decline than Miami, and Atlanta a bigger decline than Phoenix.

news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/20110214/us_yblog_thelookout/new-faces-of-housing-slump-seattle-minneapolis-atlanta

For those hit by both a job loss and underwater mortgage, what realistic choice do they have other than to walk away from their mortgage ( which itself continues the downward spiral). What are families supposed to do ?
Check out the rate of decline:
www.zillow.com/homedetails/4210-Dupont-Ave-N-Minneapolis-MN-55412/1718829_zpid/

Price History
Date Description Price % Chg $/sqft Source
01/29/2011 Listed for sale * $35,000 -53.6% $35 Weichert Realtors
04/25/2000 Sold $75,500 -- $75 Public Record
Tax History
Year Taxes paid % Change Tax assessment % Change
2008 $1,484 10.1% $111,500 -9.4%
2007 $1,349 15.9% $123,100 14.9%
2006 $1,163 14.3% $107,100 14.9%
2005 $1,017 13.7% $93,200 14.9%
2004 $895 -- $81,100 --

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[kman]

Just sent some k. Huge issue and the time frame could be decades before a turnaround. question of self preservation. Most people would like to play by the rules..I wouldn't.

[neohguy]

I started working at Cleveland's West Side Market when I was in 9th grade. It is located at W25th and Lorain Ave in Cleveland's near west side. A lot of young people worked there because adults worked the numerous manufacturing jobs in the area. The manufacturing jobs included high paying steel making, ship building, and heavy truck manufacturing jobs to not so high paying fabrication shops. The market paid below minimum wage which was legal at that time for school aged employees. It also paid more than my paper route that I had since I was 11yo. My market hours were from 3pm-6:30 pm M,W, and Friday and 5am-6:30pm on Saturday.
The reason why I'm mentioning this is because when I turned 16, and was able to obtain an industrial student work permit, the long Saturday hours (along with my brother in law's help), helped me get a job in a metal fabrication shop that paid ten cents above minimum wage. A substantial increase in pay and hours.
When I graduated from high school, I started working full time at this shop. Although this shop paid less than the mills and bigger factories, There was a lot of OT available and I was able to rent a small apartment near the shop (W70th and Detroit) and save some money. The company, like all companies back then, also paid our health insurance premium.
I loved that neighborhood and that time in my life. The neighborhood was a combination of well kept owner occupied homes and well built affordable apartments for rent. The residents were a combination of long term immigrant and their descendent's from Europe and more recent arrivals from Puerto Rico and Appalachian West Virginia and Pennsylvania. I had a high draft lottery number and the Viet Nam war was winding down anyway. The combination of rock, country, Detroit Motown, and Latino music was the reason why Cleveland was chosen for the rock hall of fame. Contrary to to the bs on the "History" channel, the rust belt hippie worked for a living because women had no use for them if they didn't. There was no reason not to work. There was plenty of work available even if it wasn't high paying.
The mid 70's recession was tough but the factories were still there when it ended so the city rebounded quickly. The early eighties recession was different. This is why I spit when know it alls say this recession is like any other recession. I don't know if they're ignorant, liars, or both. The early eighties, imo, was the start of the present time when outsourced manufacturing could be measured in square miles of floor space lost instead of sq ft. It also started a time in the US when sentiment started to change. the country started to become me me and parasitic ws types became hero's. Needless to say, formerly productive cities deteriorated while pension and hedge fund managers became wealthy.
The west side neighborhood that I loved became an impoverished and dangerous place. There seemed to be a rebound, that I couldn't understand, in the late nineties and early 2000's. The jobs that were available did not pay much yet the cars were newer and houses were being sold. Turned out to be credit. That's gone and the city has since continued its demise.

[sangria]

Interesting story, for the first time Pulte Homes is buying land in the Seattle area and building housing developments. They've never been in Washington State before. They just expanded into Florida about 2-3 years ago.

[Virgil Showlion]

One of the stumbling blocks I've always had with the "recovery" is the future costs of recovering.

The CBO is still projecting a $20 trillion US debt by 2015. Social security, medicaid, and medicare are still unfunded to the tune of $100+ trillion (see debtclock.org for specifics). The Fed is offloading huge liabilities to its regional offices and booking them as receivables.

The housing market is bouncing along the bottom. Unemployment is near-stagnant if you believe the BLS, and rising if you believe shadowstats.

The "recovery" seems to be akin to the recovery one gets by getting a cash advance from a load shark. Sure, it prevents Big Jimmy from coming after you for your casino debts, but your long-term prospects haven't improved one iota.

[midwesterner (banned)]

Feb 15, 2011 11:37:09 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

One of the stumbling blocks I've always had with the "recovery" is the future costs of recovering.

The CBO is still projecting a $20 trillion US debt by 2015. Social security, medicaid, and medicare are still unfunded to the tune of $100+ trillion (see debtclock.org for specifics). The Fed is offloading huge liabilities to its regional offices and booking them as receivables.

The housing market is bouncing along the bottom. Unemployment is near-stagnant if you believe the BLS, and rising if you believe shadowstats.

The "recovery" seems to be akin to the recovery one gets by getting a cash advance from a load shark. Sure, it prevents Big Jimmy from coming after you for your casino debts, but your long-term prospects haven't improved one iota.

Wow Virgil, you've summed that one up damn good. With each QE taking place it's just kicking the can down the road a little further and a small spike occurs. It's illusion of recovery, and like a heroin addict, it's a fix, but each time the fix needs to be more, stronger, and eventually you check into rehab and face the cold hard reality of your life, or you die a slow death.

Our problems are significant, and serious (financial and non financial). We have leader that are sold out, and won't represent us. Many are just beginning to figure this out, but some still sleep while their nation and other nations are being raped by this financial terrorists. There really is nothing else to call them, because they and their policies have created a hostage situation in the world of finance that effects just about every man, woman and child on this planet.

[usaone]

This point in a recovery always looks bleak. Google 1983-1984 and
1992-1994.

Long term liablities will be tackled early 2013.

4%GDP growth over the next several years will take care of most of the short term problems.

[Deleted]

My wife went to the mall over this past weekend and she came back vowing never to go to the mall again (yeah right).. She said it was busier than she has ever seen it, busier than any Christmas season. It took her 40 minutes just to get out of the parking lot once she had gotten to her car.

[Deleted]

Can we agree that "where" is the most important factor

In last few months, i have been to a number of regions of the country. From midwest (st louis area) to west (portland) and mid atlantic (dc area)

Areas change. Jobs move in and out...and other than the DC area, where SO many work for government, most areas are somewhat cyclical. Steel closed in Pittsburgh....and though not recovered, it is in a LOT better shape than when the mills originally shut down.

Vegas was killed by the economy...because so much of their income is derived from tourism. People were laid off....and that caused even more issues. The economy there is finally starting to show some life...i will see more in April when i go out there.

New business is the key. Whether technical or manufacturing....the small business owner is the one creating new jobs...which in turn will drive the local economy. Some areas understand this...and provide incentives....Michigan has great ads running just for this reason. They are providing incentives for new companies to move into the area....lower tax rates, lower utilities, etc.

Congress can do more. Create incentives for new jobs....forget about corporate income taxes....as long as the jobs are here

[Virgil Showlion]

Long term liablities will be tackled early 2013.

How, pray tell?

Given the CBO comptroller can't tell us--and has been sounding the alarm for the better half of a decade--"tackling" the problem by 2013 is a stellar accomplishment to say the least.

4%GDP growth over the next several years will take care of most of the short term problems.

According to the very same CBO, 5.5% GDP growth over the next 15 years will "take care" (or more specifically, "prevent collapse in") the debt obligations. Given the feds are currently having to fudge inflation stats (read: upweight housing) to put up a piddling 2.3% GDP growth number, it will take a lot of hopium to bridge the gap.

Your references to previous recessions are noted, but what should also be apparent is that demographically and macroeconomically, this "great recession" doesn't have the same anatomy.

[Virgil Showlion]

My wife went to the mall over this past weekend and she came back vowing never to go to the mall again (yeah right).. She said it was busier than she has ever seen it, busier than any Christmas season.

Probably people hunting around for hours for something they could actually afford.

From ZH (a.k.a. "Reality Central):

The only actual number that matters, is the Empire Index' Prices Paid index, which climbed to a two and a half year high of 45.8, as prices received barely moved. Even the Empire Index itself acknowledges the collapse in margins: "The prices paid index climbed to a two and-a-half-year high in February, but the measure for prices received was little changed, suggesting some pressure on profit margins." New orders and employees both dropped to 11.8 and 3.6, from 12.4 and 8.4 respectively. And, lo and behold, inventories climbed to the highest since April: the hollow growth must continue!

[Deleted]

Feb 15, 2011 12:11:26 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

My wife went to the mall over this past weekend and she came back vowing never to go to the mall again (yeah right).. She said it was busier than she has ever seen it, busier than any Christmas season.

Probably people hunting around for hours for something they could actually afford.

Possible, I have no idea. I avoid the mall like it is inhabited by plague infected zombie chimpanzees.

[scaredshirtless]

Yeah - the FED's own change in accounting. All done by themselves - and will have negative impact on taxpayers - completely circumventing Congress in the meantime - which violates US law.

Oh yeah - everything is GREAT in the good ol' US.

You keep reminding us Virg. Someone needs to. BTW - you can read about the Fed's little accounting game and what it means over at Institutional Risk Analytics. Be quick - they change them weekly.

[scaredshirtless]

PS

Great thread Kate. Thanks!

As I've said until blue in the face - this ain't over until housing recovers.

Definition of recovers = housing priced rationally based upon organic market demand backed by honest financing with a minimum 20% down. When housing is humming along under those conditions - we will have recovered.

Not until!

[usaone]

Feb 15, 2011 12:08:02 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Long term liablities will be tackled early 2013.

How, pray tell?

Given the CBO comptroller can't tell us--and has been sounding the alarm for the better half of a decade--"tackling" the problem by 2013 is a stellar accomplishment to say the least.

4%GDP growth over the next several years will take care of most of the short term problems.

According to the very same CBO, 5.5% GDP growth over the next 15 years will "take care" (or more specifically, "prevent collapse in") the debt obligations. Given the feds are currently having to fudge inflation stats (read: upweight housing) to put up a piddling 2.3% GDP growth number, it will take a lot of hopium to bridge the gap.

Your references to previous recessions are noted, but what should also be apparent is that demographically and macroeconomically, this "great recession" doesn't have the same anatomy.

4% growth along with cost cutting will do the job.

We need 5.5% growth if we do not cut.

Raise retirement age 12 to 18 months will go a long way to fixing SS.

We have done it before and we can do it again.

[Deleted]

Retirement age should be raised 5 years.

[Deleted]

Archie, do you feel there should be a age cut-off for raising the retirement age. IE 55 and older retain their original date due the time spent paying in to the system ?

[Deleted]

Feb 15, 2011 13:05:30 GMT -5 @jma23 said:

Archie, do you feel there should be a age cut-off for raising the retirement age. IE 55 and older retain their original date due the time spent paying in to the system ?

Sure. I'd be fine with that.

[usaone]

Feb 15, 2011 13:05:30 GMT -5 @jma23 said:

Archie, do you feel there should be a age cut-off for raising the retirement age. IE 55 and older retain their original date due the time spent paying in to the system ?

When the retirement age is raised it wont affect anyone in their 30s, 40's or older.

[midwesterner (banned)]

Feb 15, 2011 13:11:49 GMT -5 ArchietheDragon said:

Feb 15, 2011 13:05:30 GMT -5 @jma23 said:

Archie, do you feel there should be a age cut-off for raising the retirement age. IE 55 and older retain their original date due the time spent paying in to the system ?

Sure. I'd be fine with that.

LOL, yes let's have all the younger people support the older fools that created this damn mess in the first place. No problem, let the older folks off Scot free, yet punish the younger generations with longer work, less years of personal time/enjoyment, more and longer hours at lower wages, and prop up the debt system these same fools refused to address in their time. Sounds like a plan I think many young will scoff.

Better yet, let's end the FED, wipe out our debt paid to them, and work on sound money system that is stable and help younger couples to save for retirement in honest system. Or we can prop up the baby boomer spoiled brat generation so they don't have to ween themselves from the bottle.

Times X 1000

[Deleted]

Mid, The last laugh will be the younger folks when we start killing off all of the older fools via death panels!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

[Deleted]

Feb 15, 2011 13:39:10 GMT -5 midwesterner (banned) said:

Feb 15, 2011 13:11:49 GMT -5 ArchietheDragon said:

Sure. I'd be fine with that.

LOL, yes let's have all the younger people support the older fools that created this damn mess in the first place. No problem, let the older folks off Scot free, yet punish the younger generations with longer work, less years of personal time/enjoyment, more and longer hours at lower wages, and prop up the debt system these same fools refused to address in their time. Sounds like a plan I think many young will scoff.

Better yet, let's end the FED, wipe out our debt paid to them, and work on sound money system that is stable and help younger couples to save for retirement in honest system. Or we can prop up the baby boomer spoiled brat generation so they don't have to ween themselves from the bottle.

Times X 1000

That's quite the rant there mid. How about you paying 29 years into a 30 mortgage and then being told you just had another 10 years added before the house is yours because the younger mortgagees need your money to help them get a lower rate on their mortgage.

[usaone]

I dont think anyone will care about working and extra 12 months.

Reagan raised the the retirement age in 1983. Did anyone revolt against that?

I think he won in a landslide a few months later.

[djrick]

There are people who believe the economy is booming along again, and that the "Great Recession" ended over a year ago. I believe it's all relative to where you are, in every sense.

Read more: notmsnmoney.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=moneytalk&action=post&thread=3417&page=1#ixzz1E3UXtAlC

JPM had their 3rd perfect trading quarter in a row. They lost money on 8 days during 2010.

[midwesterner (banned)]

That's quite the rant there mid. How about you paying 29 years into a 30 mortgage and then being told you just had another 10 years added before the house is yours because the younger mortgagees need your money to help them get a lower rate on their mortgage.

Absolutely wrong. You don't understand it's not the ones with the carrot dangling in front of them that are the problem, it's the one's dangling the carrot. I'm tired of hearing how these people that are mostly low education, little change of advancement and/or understanding of finances are the problem. A REAL BANK, would have not lent them the money in first place.

Why did they? Fractional Reserve banking with it being pushed from the top down feeding the bubble. If the game is profit, then if there is nothing to loose because of derivatives, and unless money from the debt based monetary system, then what's to stop bankers from lending to anyone and everyone.

Sound money system would have put the brakes on this before it even started. If we had sound money, let me tell you something, those banks would have been out of business fast because of the fact those people that got the loans would have not paid back and the consequences would have been felt instead of bailouts or write offs.

If I owned a restaurant and let all the bums come in and eat for free expecting them to pay me back someday when they get their life together, guess what, I'd be out of business fast.

You should really learn about this banking system and how it works before commenting on such matters. Your opinion is based on lack of understanding the nature of this very, very corrupt banking cartel and system in place.

[midwesterner (banned)]

JPM had their 3rd perfect trading quarter in a row. They lost money on 8 days during 2010.

I bet they did. Can't let one of the choosen banks supporting the banking takeover/cartel system not have profits. It's bad for the elites, and bad for world governance.

[domeasingold]

So Mid buddy, now you are going to hear from one of the boomers you say are the problem. Compared to the generation previous to ours that created the system as it is today, we are just lazy asses that didn't do anything for the last 40 years.
We didn't sacrifice ourselves in a another war. We died, up to 50,000 of our brothers or loved ones. Came home maimed in body and spirit. We came home not to parades or cheers but spit in our faces. We didn't work in a manufacturing plant for the last 40 years. We didn't buy a house well within our means with at least 20% down and a 30 year mortgage that probably exceeded 10% when we bought our homes that we still currently live in. We bought automobiles that had to last us 7 - 10 years but probably didn't because they were not meant to by design. We saved money to put our children through college only to find that it was never enough. Not many of us enjoy pensions that our parents had nor had paid medical care. We learned about something called a 401K account that was supposed to ease the burden of retirement but not only lost a large portion once but twice! Yes some of us will have to work past mandatory retirement age to achieve the dream of having a retirement. Is that what you are talking about? We are not asking for handouts. All we want is what we wre promised. Stick that in your gold plated ass!!!

[domeasingold]

Another thing Midbrain. After my service I went to school nights. During the day I held a low paying job. I got married while still in school. My wife and I both worked hard duringthat time. I finished my degree but it took 5 additional years added on to the two years before I entered the military. After I received my degree I was fortunate to obtain a job as an engineer in the plant where I worked. I won't bore you with my career highlights but even in a "white collar" position The starting pay was $13,000/yr in the middle 70's. Do not tell me that we didn't work for where we are now.
BTW we did not buy a home until 86. 10 years after we married. We put 30% down. The effin taxes where higher than the P&I. Good thing I can work past 70 so I can afford to live. Now you now why there I have my money in the market. I need to build as much as I can quickly. But then maybe you will lucky and I'll die soon.

[decoy409]

Are you even paying attention or are these just hopeful guesses?

Quote: U.S.’s 65 trillion in debt is bigger than globe’s entire GDP of 60 trillion


SS, and getting out of the whole. Be real.

[midwesterner (banned)]

Feb 15, 2011 14:47:04 GMT -5 domeasingold said:

So Mid buddy, now you are going to hear from one of the boomers you say are the problem. Compared to the generation previous to ours that created the system as it is today, we are just lazy asses that didn't do anything for the last 40 years.
We didn't sacrifice ourselves in a another war. We died, up to 50,000 of our brothers or loved ones. Came home maimed in body and spirit. We came home not to parades or cheers but spit in our faces. We didn't work in a manufacturing plant for the last 40 years. We didn't buy a house well within our means with at least 20% down and a 30 year mortgage that probably exceeded 10% when we bought our homes that we still currently live in. We bought automobiles that had to last us 7 - 10 years but probably didn't because they were not meant to by design. We saved money to put our children through college only to find that it was never enough. Not many of us enjoy pensions that our parents had nor had paid medical care. We learned about something called a 401K account that was supposed to ease the burden of retirement but not only lost a large portion once but twice! Yes some of us will have to work past mandatory retirement age to achieve the dream of having a retirement. Is that what you are talking about? We are not asking for handouts. All we want is what we wre promised. Stick that in your gold plated ass!!!

Well Mr. do good is here to lecture. I never said or pointed to a person in general, and to say I don't understand that there are many that did do it right is silly. I was pointing out a generational way of thinking, though realize it's not shared by all of course.

So you did everything right, well so did a lot of younger people. They went to school, looking for work, and want to start families in which they can't afford. Played the game right, but got screwed.

When is you people are going to stop looking at the problem of others and start looking beyond the puppets to the puppet masters. It's quite sickening to see this go on daily. I don't see the angry in general population to the bankers that robbed them of everything, yet still think it's the poor guy down the street that couldn't afford their home.

Wake up man, it's the bankers, they stole our nations future unless we collectively point our fingers at the real problem. It's not me, it's not you, it's them.

If your OK with the trillions of derivatives and bail out money going to banking elites, well then be my guest and be mad at the poor fellow down the road, but I for one can't be mad at someone that wants a house, car and American dream even if they can't afford it. I can be mad at those that rob us, and have more money than they could possibly spend in 10 lifetimes yet want more.