FDA: Over-the-counter sale of morning-after pill OK for ages

[Virgil Showlion]

Apr 30, 2013 19:19:04 GMT -5 @craftysarah said:

Apr 30, 2013 19:09:20 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

A simple application of Bayes' rule tells us that 95%+ of girls using the morning after pill will be doing so because they used no primary method of birth control.

If you contest that fact, I can give you a straightforward mathematical proof.

Okay... show me your work 

Emergency contraception is going to be used following "crap, we forgot the condom" "crap, I forgot about antibiotics and the pill" and "crap, the condom slipped/tore" interactions.

While I suspect the first group is the most common, the first group is also the sort to cross their fingers and hope for the best.  The group that ordinarily uses contraception seems more likely to worry about the consequences of their actions within the first 72 hours.

But that's just me.  If you've got math, I'd be happy to see it - I'm just not sure where you would get your data other than the typical 95% success rates for various contraceptives, but that's not relevant here.

It is, in fact.

We have from the Guttmacher institute that 78% of teen girls having sex use contraceptives, meaning 22% do not. I was assuming a 98% success rate for contraceptives, but let's use your 95% (0.95) figure. The base probability of pregnancy is p. The probability of pregnancy with contraceptive use is therefore 0.05p.

We have therefore:

p( pregnant | use ) = p(P|U) = 0.05p
p( pregnant | non-use ) = p(P|N) = p
p( use ) = p(U) = 0.78
p( non-use ) = p(N) = 0.22

And we wish to determine:

p( non-use | pregnant ) = p(N|P)

which is the probability that a pregnant girl (i.e. a girl who needs the morning after pill) will need it because she didn't use contraceptives.

p(N|P) = p(N)p(P|N) / ( p(N)p(P|N) + p(U)p(P|U) ) = 0.86 = 86%.

If we use 98% as a success rate, p(N|P) = 94%.

[djAdvocate]

so a girl is going to have to be fertile 7-16 times while having sex with contraception before she becomes pregnant.

a woman is only fertile 5-6 days a month, and sperm can only survive 3-5 days.  so there is a maximum of 11 days/month, or about 40% of the time.
that means that an average teen will have to have sex at least 18 times before they become pregnant with contraception.

that is a fair amount of clandestine sex.

[Deleted]

Apr 30, 2013 19:22:37 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Apr 30, 2013 19:13:58 GMT -5 Politically_Incorrect12 said:

Why don't you just tell me so there is no guessing...

because you seem disposed to guessing. 

the discussion i started with Virgil had to do with knowing what your kids are doing.  my point is that parental consent laws don't help with that, from my perspective.  kids that are lying to their parents about their sex lives are going to maintain that lie all the way to the back alley abortion doctor or planned parenthood, or on line Mexican pharmacies.  they will lie about their age, their location, their name, and so on, to keep secrets.  so, you might ask, why am i in favor of parental consent laws?  because i think that there is a limit to how much power a child should have over their own bodies.  a good relationship will mean that there is consent between parent and child, and communication on these issues.  and the law will compel a well behaved child into a certain strategy that might be embarrassing to them otherwise.

There goes your double talk again, djp.   You meant not favor?

[djAdvocate]

Apr 30, 2013 19:43:32 GMT -5 @snowbird said:

Apr 30, 2013 19:22:37 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

because you seem disposed to guessing. 

the discussion i started with Virgil had to do with knowing what your kids are doing.  my point is that parental consent laws don't help with that, from my perspective.  kids that are lying to their parents about their sex lives are going to maintain that lie all the way to the back alley abortion doctor or planned parenthood, or on line Mexican pharmacies.  they will lie about their age, their location, their name, and so on, to keep secrets.  so, you might ask, why am i in favor of parental consent laws?  because i think that there is a limit to how much power a child should have over their own bodies.  a good relationship will mean that there is consent between parent and child, and communication on these issues.  and the law will compel a well behaved child into a certain strategy that might be embarrassing to them otherwise.

There goes your double talk again, djp.

those sentences are not contradictory.
the first says that the parental consent law won't help you (know your kid) if you have a bad relationship with your kid.  i believe that is a fact.  firmly.
the second says that the parental consent law MIGHT help if you DO NOT have a bad relationship with your kid.  i believe that is a fact.  firmly.

i am saying that good kids that have a good relationship with their parents probably don't need this law at all.  and it won't help with the bad ones, imo.  but i DO think the parental consent law has a purpose: it illustrates the limit of authority of the child in a very real world, visible way.

[Deleted]

Convince me it's not you that arguing that. djp

[Virgil Showlion]

Apr 30, 2013 19:43:13 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

so a girl is going to have to be fertile 7-16 times while having sex with contraception before she becomes pregnant.

a woman is only fertile 5-6 days a month, and sperm can only survive 3-5 days.  so there is a maximum of 11 days/month, or about 40% of the time.
that means that an average teen will have to have sex at least 18 times before they become pregnant with contraception.

that is a fair amount of clandestine sex.

Even if it decreases parents' awareness by 1%, that's 1% more teens having sex completely unchecked by parental authority. That amounts to hundreds of thousands or even millions of teens.

[djAdvocate]

Apr 30, 2013 19:51:56 GMT -5 @snowbird said:

Convince me it's not you that arguing that. djp

arguing what?

[djAdvocate]

Apr 30, 2013 19:52:13 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Apr 30, 2013 19:43:13 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

so a girl is going to have to be fertile 7-16 times while having sex with contraception before she becomes pregnant.

a woman is only fertile 5-6 days a month, and sperm can only survive 3-5 days.  so there is a maximum of 11 days/month, or about 40% of the time.
that means that an average teen will have to have sex at least 18 times before they become pregnant with contraception.

that is a fair amount of clandestine sex.

Even if it decreases parents' awareness by 1%, that's 1% more teens having sex completely unchecked by parental authority. That amounts to hundreds of thousands or even millions of teens.

you hit the mark there.  there is absolutely NOTHING in this law that increases a parent's authority over teen sex.

[Deleted]

Apr 30, 2013 19:55:02 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Apr 30, 2013 19:51:56 GMT -5 @snowbird said:

Convince me it's not you that arguing that. djp

arguing what?

What you just told me. That makes a sense to you.djp Before you edited it.

[djAdvocate]

Apr 30, 2013 19:57:35 GMT -5 @snowbird said:

Apr 30, 2013 19:55:02 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

arguing what?

What you just told me. That makes a sense to you.djp

sorry, i thought that was Virgil.  go back and look.  i edited it.

[Deleted]

Apr 30, 2013 19:59:20 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Apr 30, 2013 19:57:35 GMT -5 @snowbird said:

What you just told me. That makes a sense to you.djp

sorry, i thought that was Virgil.  go back and look.  i edited it.

I saw it, djp.

[Virgil Showlion]

Are you guys locked in some kind of Abbot and Costello routine?

you hit the mark there. there is absolutely NOTHING in this law that increases a parent's authority over teen sex.

There is very good reason to believe that eliminating the need for a prescription will decrease parental awareness. Parents cannot police what they are not aware of.

I'm saying that even if the net effect is a 1% decrease in parental awareness, that amounts to hundreds of thousands or even millions of families affected. You've eliminated one of the warning flags unaware parents might catch on to.

[djAdvocate]

Apr 30, 2013 20:09:31 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Are you guys locked in some kind of Abbot and Costello routine?

you hit the mark there. there is absolutely NOTHING in this law that increases a parent's authority over teen sex.

There is very good reason to believe that eliminating the need for a prescription will decrease parental awareness. Parents cannot police what they are not aware of.

I'm saying that even if the net effect is a 1% decrease in parental awareness, that amounts to hundreds of thousands or even millions of families affected. You've eliminated one of the warning flags unaware parents might catch on to.

yeah, i got that.  thanks for repeating it.  i am pretty dense, after all.  there is no telling what i might miss.

[Deleted]

Apr 30, 2013 19:36:45 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Apr 30, 2013 19:19:04 GMT -5 @craftysarah said:

Okay... show me your work 

Emergency contraception is going to be used following "crap, we forgot the condom" "crap, I forgot about antibiotics and the pill" and "crap, the condom slipped/tore" interactions.

While I suspect the first group is the most common, the first group is also the sort to cross their fingers and hope for the best.  The group that ordinarily uses contraception seems more likely to worry about the consequences of their actions within the first 72 hours.

But that's just me.  If you've got math, I'd be happy to see it - I'm just not sure where you would get your data other than the typical 95% success rates for various contraceptives, but that's not relevant here.

It is, in fact.

We have from the Guttmacher institute that 78% of teen girls having sex use contraceptives, meaning 22% do not. I was assuming a 98% success rate for contraceptives, but let's use your 95% (0.95) figure. The base probability of pregnancy is p. The probability of pregnancy with contraceptive use is therefore 0.05p.

We have therefore:

p( pregnant | use ) = p(P|U) = 0.05p
p( pregnant | non-use ) = p(P|N) = p
p( use ) = p(U) = 0.78
p( non-use ) = p(N) = 0.22

And we wish to determine:

p( non-use | pregnant ) = p(N|P)

which is the probability that a pregnant girl (i.e. a girl who needs the morning after pill) will need it because she didn't use contraceptives.

p(N|P) = p(N)p(P|N) / ( p(N)p(P|N) + p(U)p(P|U) ) = 0.86 = 86%.

If we use 98% as a success rate, p(N|P) = 94%.

Women who use Plan B are not yet pregnant.  Or, because I don't want to debate the definition of pregnant, they do not know that they are pregnant / would not yet have a positive pregnancy test.

You are doing the math on the likelihood of an unintended pregnancy, which is a different thing.  Lots (probably most) of women who use Plan B were never pregnant/never going to become pregnant.

[Deleted]

Apr 30, 2013 19:43:13 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

so a girl is going to have to be fertile 7-16 times while having sex with contraception before she becomes pregnant.

a woman is only fertile 5-6 days a month, and sperm can only survive 3-5 days.  so there is a maximum of 11 days/month, or about 40% of the time.
that means that an average teen will have to have sex at least 18 times before they become pregnant with contraception.

that is a fair amount of clandestine sex.

Doesn't matter.  If you are already pregnant, Plan B won't help you.

[djAdvocate]

Apr 30, 2013 20:15:54 GMT -5 @craftysarah said:

Apr 30, 2013 19:43:13 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

so a girl is going to have to be fertile 7-16 times while having sex with contraception before she becomes pregnant.

a woman is only fertile 5-6 days a month, and sperm can only survive 3-5 days.  so there is a maximum of 11 days/month, or about 40% of the time.
that means that an average teen will have to have sex at least 18 times before they become pregnant with contraception.

that is a fair amount of clandestine sex.

Doesn't matter.  If you are already pregnant, Plan B won't help you.

i was just thinking outloud.  that is a pretty sexually active teen.  that was my ONLY point.
well not quite.  my unspoken point is that that much activity should be casually observable, even to a relatively detached parent.

[EVT1]

Virgil is referencing video game characters now.....wow.  What's the problem with sex anyway?  It's great.  I fail to see the problem with this. 

[Opti]

Plan B is for those who are worried about becoming pregnant, do not want to have a baby or an abortion. The time window is pretty small too.<BR><BR><BR>If people are more concerned with reducing the number of abortions or even potential teen pregnancies I would consider it a good thing. While not common, there are still girls who get pregnant, have a child in the bathroom stall somewhere, abandon it and the parents don<BR>'t know until after the fact.<BR><BR>You aren't going to catch everything and meanwhile potential baby daddy is not even on the radar for many parents.

[thyme4change]

Yeah!  Even fewer unwanted babies keeping young girls (and their children) in poverty!  Whoot!  Whoot!  This is great news.

[Virgil Showlion]

Apr 30, 2013 21:24:59 GMT -5 EVT1 said:

Virgil is referencing video game characters now.....wow.  What's the problem with sex anyway?  It's great.  I fail to see the problem with this. 

Great. If the parents agree with you, they'll have no problem waiting in the car while their daughter fills her emergency birth control prescription.

And I normally wouldn't contrast real people with fictional characters, but I swear that DJ's posts match line by line transcripts of Ryan's dialog in the game.

[mmhmm]

I haven't read up on the side-effects/contraindications for this particular medication.  That does give me some concern, but I'll have to research it to determine how much concern and over what.

[thyme4change]

Great. If the parents agree with you, they'll have no problem waiting in the car while their daughter fills her emergency birth control prescription.

Hopefully, if the parent is okay with it, they will put their daughters on preventative hormonal birth control before she has sex.

[Virgil Showlion]

Apr 30, 2013 21:38:49 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

Great. If the parents agree with you, they'll have no problem waiting in the car while their daughter fills her emergency birth control prescription.

Hopefully, if the parent is okay with it, they will put their daughters on preventative hormonal birth control before she has sex.

Because we all know the "Plan B" pill is the drug of choice for teens whose parents are fully aware of their child's promiscuity.

But you know what? You raise your kids your way. I'll raise mine my way. You drug your daughter up on hormones and pat her on the back while she sleeps around. I'll teach mine the importance of saving herself for marriage and guard her from moral threats until she leaves my custody. And the world will keep right on spinning, and whatever will come shall come.

[djAdvocate]

Apr 30, 2013 21:31:45 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Apr 30, 2013 21:24:59 GMT -5 EVT1 said:

Virgil is referencing video game characters now.....wow.  What's the problem with sex anyway?  It's great.  I fail to see the problem with this. 

Great. If the parents agree with you, they'll have no problem waiting in the car while their daughter fills her emergency birth control prescription.

And I normally wouldn't contrast real people with fictional characters, but I swear that DJ's posts match line by line transcripts of Ryan's dialog in the game.

again, for the third time, i am not making a relativistic argument, Virgil.  i have already stated clearly that i am an advocate of parental consent law.  i voted for the one here in CA.  but since you seem to have missed it THREE TIMES, let me spell it out for you, again:

parental consent laws will NOT improve a parent's knowledge of their kids, won't stop them from becoming pregnant, and won't stop them from getting a medical or surgical abortion if they so wish.

does that sound like a line for line transcript of this Ryan person to you?

edit: i don't play games, so referencing them will never elicit anything other than a puzzled reply from me.

[mmhmm]

I've just scratched the surface, but it looks like Plan B may increase the chance of ectopic pregnancy by a small percentage.  Also, this is not meant to be used as a regular birth control method, but only in emergency cases.  That concerns me a bit.  A 15-year-old is going to have some difficulty understanding that every time she decides to have sexual relations with someone it isn't an emergency.  I can see someone that age deciding that this is the answer to all her worries.  NOT!

[Virgil Showlion]

parental consent laws will NOT improve a parent's knowledge of their kids.

What does this thread have to do with parental consent laws?

Maybe that's where you lost me.

[Opti]

Because we all know the "Plan B" pill is the drug of choice for teens whose parents are fully aware of their child's promiscuity.

You do?
I can think of scenarios that don't involve consensual sex where it is going to be hard for the daughter to let her parents she was date raped, etc.

[Virgil Showlion]

Apr 30, 2013 22:11:27 GMT -5 Opti said:

Because we all know the "Plan B" pill is the drug of choice for teens whose parents are fully aware of their child's promiscuity.

You do?
I can think of scenarios that don't involve consensual sex where it is going to be hard for the daughter to let her parents she was date raped, etc.

I'm being sarcastic.

You can ask Thyme, though.

She apparently lives in a world where your typical "Plan B" scenario is a girl walking up to her parents and saying, "Mom, Dad, I know I'm drugged to the gills with hormones because Billy and I don't use a condom, but can I get $80.00 to buy some 'Plan B' pills? I have a scrip from Dr. Spudberg."

[djAdvocate]

Apr 30, 2013 22:10:39 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

parental consent laws will NOT improve a parent's knowledge of their kids.

What does this thread have to do with parental consent laws?

Maybe that's where you lost me.

i brought it up in a discussion with PI that you got in the middle of.

[Virgil Showlion]

Apr 30, 2013 22:20:27 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Apr 30, 2013 22:10:39 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

What does this thread have to do with parental consent laws?

Maybe that's where you lost me.

i brought it up in a discussion with PI that you got in the middle of.

My apologies then. I shan't interfere again.