TonyTiger
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Post by TonyTiger on Sept 11, 2012 10:56:00 GMT -5
"... I do wonder what would be the case in the real world..." Ditto... a lot of folks don't even truly finalize their decision until they're on the cusp of punching a ballot chad. Oh, heck, any fine-tuning on the poll might simply include (1) Democrat, (2) Republican, (3) Libertarian, (4) Green, (5) Socialist, (6) Other Party, (7) Independent, (8) Refuse to Vote and (9) Ineligible, to come close to doing it right, without it getting overly-cumbersome - assuming that the App will allow some-such configuration. Yeah, I'd like to see some fine-tuning on it, myself, if a good-sized percentage of our colleagues would also enjoy it.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Sept 11, 2012 10:59:32 GMT -5
It's more complicated than just asking people what they think. Whether the process is "scientific" is highly debatable.
A "dash of empiricism combined with a lot of voodoo" would be more accurate. I suppose it can be called "scientific" in the sense that the voodoo has been iteratively refined, and (in most cases) provides accurate numbers.
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cme1201
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Post by cme1201 on Sept 11, 2012 10:59:53 GMT -5
Would suggest if another poll run the third party is left off
Ever Political poll I have been apart of they never leave 3rd party off why would you do it here?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 11, 2012 11:03:03 GMT -5
It's more complicated than just asking people what they think. Whether the process is "scientific" is highly debatable. i don't think it is any more debatable than the term "social science". you can quantify things like voting preferences. you can measure it. it produces predictable outcomes within a range of possibility. in most senses, it is no different than predicting the accuracy of a missile on a distant target. but then again, people in this US tend to conflate scientific with "absolutely predictable" which is, obviously, false. even within science there is room for error.A "dash of empiricism combined with a lot of voodoo" would be more accurate. I suppose it can be called "scientific" in the sense that the voodoo has been iteratively refined, and (in most cases) provides accurate numbers. that is precisely it. but economics is far more dismal than polling, bro. and i would argue that social sciences actually require a lot MORE analysis than the hard sciences, owing to their "wilyness".
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Sept 11, 2012 11:04:39 GMT -5
Ditto... a lot of folks don't even truly finalize their decision until they're on the cusp of punching a ballot chad.
I believe this is true. But it does astound me, considering the clear difference between the candidates.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 11, 2012 11:05:51 GMT -5
Ditto... a lot of folks don't even truly finalize their decision until they're on the cusp of punching a ballot chad.I believe this is true. But it does astound me, considering the clear difference between the candidates. it surprised me that Bush left office with 30% approval, too. it is amazing how much it takes to convince some people.
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deziloooooo
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Post by deziloooooo on Sept 11, 2012 11:22:09 GMT -5
Would suggest if another poll run the third party is left offEver Political poll I have been apart of they never leave 3rd party off why would you do it here? Only because of the high # now voling third party...just not going to happen, even close to it in the real world... If it did then I would bow to dj--apologize profusely, "me bad, me wrong...this third party thing...you may have it right.." it is / would be a force and with a little tweaking here and there..possible a third party will / would become viable and our whole way of governance is going to change..BUT I don't believe that. Thus would really like to see a more accurate poll results as to how it will POSSIBLE go down in the real world when it really counts...still believe lot of the third party votes here are , "Oh hell why not..not hurting anyone.." when it comes to voting here ...
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TonyTiger
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Post by TonyTiger on Sept 11, 2012 11:23:00 GMT -5
"I believe this is true. But it does astound me, considering the clear difference between the candidates". IMHO, there is a HUGE segment of the population with the attention-span of a bag of Skittles, when it comes to politics. A great many folks are far too busy earning a living and raising families to give much attention to politics and elections.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 11, 2012 11:24:40 GMT -5
Would suggest if another poll run the third party is left offEver Political poll I have been apart of they never leave 3rd party off why would you do it here? Only because of the high # now voling third party...just not going to happen, even close to it in the real world... If it did then I would bow to dj--apologize profusely, me bad, me wrong...this third party thing...you may have it right..it is a force and with a little tweaking here and there..possible a third party will become viable and our whole way of governance is going to change..BUT I don't believe that. Thus would really like to see a more accurate poll results as to how it will POSSIBLE go down in the real world when it really counts...still believe lot of the third party votes here are , "Oh hell why not..not hurting anyone.." i suspect that 3rd parties will poll less than 3% of the electorate, as usual. i have no illusions about my chances of seeing someone i WANT in DC. the total may be somewhat higher in NM, which is probably why the 2-party polling is showing 15% undecided.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 11, 2012 11:25:52 GMT -5
"I believe this is true. But it does astound me, considering the clear difference between the candidates". IMHO, there is a HUGE segment of the population with the attention-span of a bag of Skittles, when it comes to politics. A great many folks are far too busy earning a living and raising families to give much attention to politics and elections. to add: this "great many folks" is HIGHLY underrepresented here. ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/wink.png)
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Sept 11, 2012 11:29:25 GMT -5
My comment doesn't concern the non-determinism of the problem.
"Science" ideally imply a process that is in some wise analytical. Blind empiricism is still commonplace, and still the best we can do in many cases, but a guess-check-and-fudge approach to understanding the world around us doesn't aspire to the "fullness" of science.
Science offers hypotheses about the deeper nature of a problem and uses empirical data to confirm or refute the hypothesis. The hypothesis in polling is notably shallow: "We can iteratively bludgeon a model into a useful tool by backpropagating electoral outcomes into a valid but ultimately intractable set of fudge factors."
There isn't any analytical understanding of the process being characterized, nor is there any real effort to obtain any.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Sept 11, 2012 11:35:07 GMT -5
IMHO, there is a HUGE segment of the population with the attention-span of a bag of Skittles, when it comes to politics.<Sigh> I do believe that.... A great many folks are far too busy earning a living and raising families to give much attention to politics and elections. I also get that, BUT, all they really needed to do was watch two conventions (not the whole things, but the major speeches) to be minimally informed. I learned very early that elections and politics affect me personally and financially.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2012 11:36:20 GMT -5
How many times can I vote and is photo ID required? ;D
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TonyTiger
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Post by TonyTiger on Sept 11, 2012 11:38:36 GMT -5
IMHO, there is a HUGE segment of the population with the attention-span of a bag of Skittles, when it comes to politics. A great many folks are far too busy earning a living and raising families to give much attention to politics and elections. to add: this "great many folks" is HIGHLY underrepresented here. ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/wink.png) Agreed... Although, to be on the safe side, we'd better submit the data to a professional statistician... ;D In all seriousness, we have a considerable number of folks hereabouts who really enjoy mixing it up over political issues and the news and the political and financial fallout of the news, but... Somehow, I don't think that's a hobby that most of our neighbors would enjoy, on a regular basis, nor be able to muster and sustain the same level of commitment and passion in such matters that we see here every day of the week...
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 11, 2012 11:39:05 GMT -5
My comment doesn't concern the non-determinism of the problem. "Science" ideally imply a process that is in some wise analytical. Blind empiricism is still commonplace, and still the best we can do in many cases, but a guess-check-and-fudge approach to understanding the world around us doesn't aspire to the "fullness" of science. Science offers hypotheses about the deeper nature of a problem and uses empirical data to confirm or refute the hypothesis. The hypothesis in polling is notably shallow: "We can iteratively bludgeon a model into a useful tool by backpropagating electoral outcomes into a valid but ultimately intractable set of fudge factors." There isn't any analytical understanding of the process being characterized, nor is there any real effort to obtain any. again, you are basically saying social science is an oxymoron. i am not actually going to debate that point, but many would.
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TonyTiger
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Post by TonyTiger on Sept 11, 2012 11:43:34 GMT -5
"... all they really needed to do was watch two conventions...to be minimally informed..." But it's so much more pleasant to sit out on the back deck with a Margarita and to enjoy the night air after the kids have gone to bed. Yes, but, I'm guessing, even "very early", you already realized that you were in a minority, in paying good attention to such things. I'm not defending the mentality, merely observing - alongside you in this particular matter, apparently - that disdain for All Things Political is the Rule rather than the Exception. And, I suspect, it's been that way, since the first Cro Magnon yawned around the cave-fire, while two of his chums were arguing over who should lead the next mammoth-hunt... ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/wink.png)
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deziloooooo
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Post by deziloooooo on Sept 11, 2012 11:46:04 GMT -5
"I believe this is true. But it does astound me, considering the clear difference between the candidates". IMHO, there is a HUGE segment of the population with the attention-span of a bag of Skittles, when it comes to politics. A great many folks are far too busy earning a living and raising families to give much attention to politics and elections. Possible, though there are so many people, families, who are directly affected by what has been happening here in our country over the past few years their attention to the situation might surprise you. A person laid off..unable to get a job and found his unemployment benefits running out..but because of Dems and Obama , extended, then extended again..just might feel some appreciation for that help. Maybe it's not them directly but a family member , close friend, even a neighbor.. Same with then stimulus..teacher, fire , teacher...been told there would be layoffs their community, just not yet who..but know it will be by seniority and then because of stimulus..no layoffs at all..might remember. Same as those outside help hired because of stimulus..[there were signs posted in FL on some of those jobs giving credit for why the what ever was being done] just might remember.. Same with health issues..them selves, family member, close friend..uninsurable, now insurable, "Obamacare "..might be appreciative..kids on parents insurance ..appreciative... Family's just waiting till they don't have to go to ER for medical situations..be able to have own doctor...[ Ok that one...still down the road a bit, possible because of that , less explanation of how that works..might be a bit far fetched to think much appreciation on that segment yet...yet down the road..could be a biggie] Same on negatives against the man and his party..don't know of any but in case of some...[ Just kidding , know there are some, in fact will give you just one as to how some one close to me looks at it ] Just talked to son this weekend, up in Ct ..very, very good job with major Insurance company, very well compensated in upper, middle management.. Because Insurance companies had to give back to their clients large sums due to to little going toward claims from premiums..seems that govt is mandating how much profits a Insurance company can make..not sure why they have that right , would think competitive issues between Industry leaders would keep that fair ...but anyway..lots given back..over $100 million his company alone..so naturally stock is down, so more lay offs... Me , my answer to him would be your company is overcharging thus the rebate..[Did not say that }...however he is not happy with Obama care..Obama himself..I understand that..maybe it's just a small sampling...but for those who are laid off, terminated, these by the way are very, very good paying jobs, very good benefits..those who are in charge of who gets lets go..[he is safe but next time ? } and that is just one group who would be unhappy and possible remember when in the booth considering who to vote for... Shows that family's love and cherish each other but when it comes to Politics there can be differences..Daughter and her Husband, [ Great guy }..very, very comfortable yet very Liberal and generous with their time and giving..have no problem, [they definitely would be affected, ]if Bush tax cuts were allowed to expire..so go figure. For me..?Love and cherish both of them equally...no matter what their political leanings are... ![8-)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/cool.png)
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Sept 11, 2012 11:54:24 GMT -5
A misnomer. And yes. ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/wink.png)
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2012 12:15:46 GMT -5
A misnomer. And yes. ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/wink.png) That's what people in the "hard sciences" say to make themselves feel better when they realize the "soft sciences" are measuring things people actually care about. But, you've never shied away from the pomposity, so carry on.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Sept 11, 2012 13:38:54 GMT -5
How many times can I vote and is photo ID required? ;D a) Once per election b) Depends on the state. As an aside, I noted on Facebook that Jim Cramer's dad is being affected by the voter id laws in PA. He's a vet, elderly, no longer drives, cannot prove his citizenship. A surprising number of elders were born before birth certificates were common (my mother was born at home and there was no birth certificate)
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Sept 11, 2012 13:41:39 GMT -5
Ditto... a lot of folks don't even truly finalize their decision until they're on the cusp of punching a ballot chad.I believe this is true. But it does astound me, considering the clear difference between the candidates. it surprised me that Bush left office with 30% approval, too. it is amazing how much it takes to convince some people. It's as if they want to believe in their favorite so much that any facts presented to them to the contrary are ignored. Frustrating.
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chiver78
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Post by chiver78 on Sept 11, 2012 13:43:05 GMT -5
How many times can I vote and is photo ID required? ;D a) Once per election b) Depends on the state. As an aside, I noted on Facebook that Jim Cramer's dad is being affected by the voter id laws in PA. He's a vet, elderly, no longer drives, cannot prove his citizenship. A surprising number of elders were born before birth certificates were common (my mother was born at home and there was no birth certificate) well he must be an illegal, dammit! ![::)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/eyesroll.png)
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2012 13:51:57 GMT -5
a) Once per election b) Depends on the state. As an aside, I noted on Facebook that Jim Cramer's dad is being affected by the voter id laws in PA. He's a vet, elderly, no longer drives, cannot prove his citizenship. A surprising number of elders were born before birth certificates were common (my mother was born at home and there was no birth certificate) ________________________________________ I believe that the new photo ID requirements in Ohio and PA are being challenged in the courts this week...both crucial battleground states.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Sept 11, 2012 14:02:04 GMT -5
it surprised me that Bush left office with 30% approval, too. it is amazing how much it takes to convince some people. It's as if they want to believe in their favorite so much that any facts presented to them to the contrary are ignored. Frustrating. A recent survey of Ohio Republicans showed that 15% thought that Romney should get credit for taking out Bin Laden. And over 50% (of Ohio Republicans) "didn't know" who should get credit....
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Sept 11, 2012 14:15:53 GMT -5
??
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Sept 11, 2012 14:24:23 GMT -5
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Sept 11, 2012 14:26:43 GMT -5
Lemmie put myself into the head of one of 'those' Ohio Republicans for a moment... 'If there wasn't an election coming and President Barack Obama, a man I deeply admire,r wasn't worried about losing his job, he would have left his buddy OBL alone, but when push comes to shove you can't trust that Commie activist as far as you can throw him' ...ugh, that hurt. Hope it doesn't leave a scar. Not going through that again if I can help it.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 11, 2012 14:27:26 GMT -5
A misnomer. And yes. ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/wink.png) That's what people in the "hard sciences" say to make themselves feel better when they realize the "soft sciences" are measuring things people actually care about. But, you've never shied away from the pomposity, so carry on. this is precisely why i don't think the argument is terribly important. they can go back to the lab and play with beakers, while the rest of us get busy making a difference.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 11, 2012 14:27:50 GMT -5
it surprised me that Bush left office with 30% approval, too. it is amazing how much it takes to convince some people. It's as if they want to believe in their favorite so much that any facts presented to them to the contrary are ignored. Frustrating. deeply.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Sept 11, 2012 14:28:57 GMT -5
Lemmie put myself into the head of one of 'those' Ohio Republicans for a moment...
'If there wasn't an election coming and President Barack Obama, a man I deeply admire,r wasn't worried about losing his job, he would have left his buddy OBL alone, but when push comes to shove you can't trust that Commie activist as far as you can throw him'
...ugh, that hurt. Hope it doesn't leave a scar. Not going through that again if I can help it. ![](http://i239.photobucket.com/albums/ff155/JiminiChristmas/smileys/1-1.gif) and ![](http://i239.photobucket.com/albums/ff155/JiminiChristmas/buttons/K1.png) for the effort
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