mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Sept 10, 2012 21:47:38 GMT -5
I even know who you'll be voting for, dj! I beez smart like that there akuz I learnt ta reed! ;D well, if Johnson doesn't check out, i already have TWO backups that i like better than Barack and Mitt. Barack is 4th, and Mitt is 5th on my voting list. Yeah, I recall your saying how your stance on issues fell into place on several polls that have been linked to here over the past month or so, so it's not too difficult to figure out what your plans might be. They're probably not a great deal different than mine when it comes right down to it. I think there are more of us than a lot of people realize.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 10, 2012 21:55:13 GMT -5
well, if Johnson doesn't check out, i already have TWO backups that i like better than Barack and Mitt. Barack is 4th, and Mitt is 5th on my voting list. Yeah, I recall your saying how your stance on issues fell into place on several polls that have been linked to here over the past month or so, so it's not too difficult to figure out what your plans might be. They're probably not a great deal different than mine when it comes right down to it. I think there are more of us than a lot of people realize. i agree. it gives me a LOT of hope. without it, i would drink a lot more.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Sept 10, 2012 21:56:12 GMT -5
LOL! I'm not an alcohol imbiber, but I'd probably eat a heck of a lot more chocolate! ;D
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 10, 2012 21:59:54 GMT -5
LOL! I'm not an alcohol imbiber, but I'd probably eat a heck of a lot more chocolate! ;D i don't drink much either. maybe 2 dozen drinks a year. that was my whole point!
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chiver78
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Post by chiver78 on Sept 10, 2012 22:15:51 GMT -5
Yes, yes, and about 5% depending on how "interesting" the political news is. Things like Biden's gaffes, the Romneys' horse, etc. get zero Canadian news coverage. The RNC and DNC might get five-minute news blurbs. Most of the news comes from TV and radio stations that don't respect national boundaries. Stations local to Boston, Detroit, etc. genuine curiosity - why would stations local to Boston or Detroit need to respect national boundaries? it's the receiving stations that choose to broadcast them, or not.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2012 3:49:07 GMT -5
Better of two choices that we have.I feel for Obama. but I don't think he's policy has not been working for this country.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2012 5:47:42 GMT -5
I didn't read the whole thread but just wondering if you are going to do a weekly poll as well to see if anything changes? That would be interesting.
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teen persuasion
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Post by teen persuasion on Sept 11, 2012 8:03:29 GMT -5
Yes, yes, and about 5% depending on how "interesting" the political news is. Things like Biden's gaffes, the Romneys' horse, etc. get zero Canadian news coverage. The RNC and DNC might get five-minute news blurbs. Most of the news comes from TV and radio stations that don't respect national boundaries. Stations local to Boston, Detroit, etc. genuine curiosity - why would stations local to Boston or Detroit need to respect national boundaries? it's the receiving stations that choose to broadcast them, or not. I thought that Virgil meant that Canadians near those cities could also watch/listen to the US stations, just like I grew up watching lots of Canadian TV. Since things have switched to digital, we've lost lots of channels: CBC, TVO, 11(can't recall the station anymore)... DH still likes to listen to the BBC news on Jazz FM out of Toronto on his way to work.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 11, 2012 9:03:27 GMT -5
Wow, 5 ineligibles so far out of 78 votes. That's almost 6.5% of the respondents. I'm shocked it's that high. And I am welling to bet, not one of them is an illegal alien....
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ՏՇԾԵԵʅՏɧ_LԹՏՏʅҼ
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Post by ՏՇԾԵԵʅՏɧ_LԹՏՏʅҼ on Sept 11, 2012 9:23:59 GMT -5
Wow, 5 ineligibles so far out of 78 votes. That's almost 6.5% of the respondents. I'm shocked it's that high. Some of us who live outside the US are inelligible to vote but we ARE iinterested in and watching the politics, as it indirectly (or sometimes directly) affects us too.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Sept 11, 2012 9:29:22 GMT -5
Better of two choices that we have.I feel for Obama. but I don't think he's policy has not been working for this country. In the last 2 years, the Senate minority has repeatedly used the filibuster to block legislation and the House has enough Tea Party extremists to make sure nothing passes. All so that they can now say, "Obama's policies don't work". And if they get voted into office again, we'll have at least two more years of gridlock. That's what happens when you split the ticket.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 11, 2012 9:48:16 GMT -5
Better of two choices that we have.I feel for Obama. but I don't think he's policy has not been working for this country. that's strange. i don't think his policy has not been working for the country, too.
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Post by TonyTiger on Sept 11, 2012 9:51:39 GMT -5
Well, as of this writing, Fearless Leader is pulling ahead, at about the ratio that I'd expect from the General Election. No surprise. I may have been the very first to push the poll-button for Da Boss a couple of days ago. That pleases me, in an odd sort of way. And it depresses me terribly that I had to hold my nose while doing it. ;D
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 11, 2012 9:58:10 GMT -5
Well, as of this writing, Fearless Leader is pulling ahead, at about the ratio that I'd expect from the General Election. No surprise. i am surprised. Nate Silver is pretty clearly surprised. NOTHING has moved the polls very much in this race, so this bump is quite surprising. at least to me and Nate.
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TonyTiger
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Post by TonyTiger on Sept 11, 2012 10:13:50 GMT -5
Well, as of this writing, Fearless Leader is pulling ahead, at about the ratio that I'd expect from the General Election. No surprise. i am surprised. Nate Silver is pretty clearly surprised. NOTHING has moved the polls very much in this race, so this bump is quite surprising. at least to me and Nate. I tend to ignore polls and statisticians with respect to election outcomes, this far out; preferring to rely upon my own half-a$$ed Spidey Sense for such things as my baseline. Rightly or wrongly, folks tend to trust the Republicans to cut costs down to the bone, but they do not trust them to take care of folks when such care is needed. Rightly of wrongly, folks tend to trust the Democrats to take care of people when such care is needed but they do not trust them to cut costs once the crisis has passed. We are, of course, still in the middle of the First Great Depression of the 21st Century, and more folks need the care that Dems are better at providing... Once the crisis has passed folks will perceive that it's safe to kick the Dems to the curb again and fully empower the Pubs, but we may not be at that point yet... When it gets right down to where the bear s--ts in the woods, I'm guessing that more folks are going to (grudgingly) vote Dem than these 60-days-out polls are showing... Master statisticians and lions and tigers and bears ( oh my) notwithstanding... as I said earlier, in another thread... The only poll that really counts is the one that many of us will be participating in directly, on Tuesday, November 6, 2012...
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Sept 11, 2012 10:17:28 GMT -5
At this point, Romney backers should be close to worried. 120 votes (which we've now exceeded) is the sample size at which the percentages will fall within ±5% of the actual values 95% of the time (i.e. 19 times out of 20). This, of course, presumes that NMSNM readers are an unbiased sample of America at large. There is always going to be some bias in a community with respect to the population at large. The question remains: how much? An 8.1% spread in favour of Pres. Obama and 16.9% third party vote aren't reflected in national polls. This site has some fresh poll numbers as of Sept. 10. It shows nearly identical popular support for both candidates. Regarding "ongoing" NMSNM polling: we'll put out another poll 30 days prior to the election to see if numbers have changed. Any more than that would be overkill, and intrusive to boot.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 11, 2012 10:18:28 GMT -5
i am surprised. Nate Silver is pretty clearly surprised. NOTHING has moved the polls very much in this race, so this bump is quite surprising. at least to me and Nate. I tend to ignore polls and statisticians with respect to election outcomes, this far out; preferring to rely upon my own half-a$$ed Spidey Sense for such things as my baseline. the fact that you ignore them doesn't make them meaningless. just as with sports, you can make some basic assumptions when the season enters playoffs that you can't make in the beginning. now, admittedly, ALL pollsters have what is called "house effect". certain pollsters like Rasmussen are particularly bad at house affect, and don't seem to care about it. others are constantly adjusting their models so that the data reflects what is actually happening. lots of people like to dismiss polling during the campaign. that is fine with me. but i still say that Romney is a 1:4 underdog. edit: PS- i can guarantee that the pollsters kick all kinds of ass on your spidey sense (and mine).
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 11, 2012 10:21:21 GMT -5
At this point, Romney backers should be close to worried. 120 votes (which we've now exceeded) is the sample size at which the percentages will fall within ±5% of the actual values 95% of the time (i.e. 19 times out of 20). This, of course, presumes that NMSNM readers are an unbiased sample of America at large. There is always going to be some bias in a community with respect to the population at large. The question remains: how much? An 8.1% spread in favour of Pres. Obama and 16.9% third party vote aren't reflected in national polls. This site has some fresh poll numbers as of Sept. 10. It shows nearly identical popular support for both candidates. Regarding "ongoing" NMSNM polling: we'll put out another poll 30 days prior to the election to see if numbers have changed. Any more than that would be overkill, and intrusive to boot. i am sure that our sampling is not 1/10th as good as the pollsters. the fact that we all have internet access, can talk in complete sentences, and are FIERCELY political would indicate that we are not typical. is our poll meaningless? of course not. i think it reflects what i call the "voting class". virtually everyone here will vote, and that makes us a powerful part of the electorate, which is meaningful. but we are not really representative. half of American voters will stay home on election day.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 11, 2012 10:24:57 GMT -5
The only poll that really counts is the one that many of us will be participating in directly, on Tuesday, November 6, 2012... red herring. i never said that polling "counted". the only claim i made is that it is NOT meaningless. polling is a snapshot of public opinion. it tells us WHERE WE ARE TODAY. is it reliable? LARGELY. i know that a lot of people disagree with that, but it is a fact. you can aggregate good data midseason. how do we know this? well, we can watch how the data changes as it approaches election. polling agencies that have fudged the numbers will have to shape up as the campiagn wears on (or risk being seen as unreliable, which is the death knell for anything other than an "in house" poller). but, by and large, the polling agencies are reporting good numbers already. will they adjust them based on November 6th? of course. methodology changes with EVERY election cycle. the models are revised to reflect the data, and then they go again. but most agencies have it REALLY worked out. it is only some agencies that don't, and don't seem to care. and they are fairly well known, at this point.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 11, 2012 10:29:16 GMT -5
oh, one final thing- i think that the pollsters have predicted all but one primary outcome so far. i KNOW nobody here has done that well, present company included.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Sept 11, 2012 10:42:52 GMT -5
Atypical factors only matter if they correlate with voting preferences.
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Post by TonyTiger on Sept 11, 2012 10:46:36 GMT -5
"... the fact that you ignore them doesn't make them meaningless..." I neither said nor implied otherwise... ;D Agreed - but we've all seen them miss by a mile often enough to realize that Statistics is not a sacred cow - merely a high-order predictive tool that should - itself - be taken with a grain of salt... ...consequently, Spidey-Sense continues to 'have its place' in such matters... ;D
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 11, 2012 10:48:57 GMT -5
Atypical factors only matter if they correlate with voting preferences. indeed. but unlike online polling, pollsters are well aware of this fact, and screen for it. they are way more scientific than just asking people what they think.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 11, 2012 10:49:45 GMT -5
"... the fact that you ignore them doesn't make them meaningless..." I neither said nor implied otherwise... ;D Agreed - but we've all seen them miss by a mile often enough name me one instance in the primaries when they missed by a mile.
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Post by TonyTiger on Sept 11, 2012 10:50:21 GMT -5
The only poll that really counts is the one that many of us will be participating in directly, on Tuesday, November 6, 2012... red herring..." Yes, I thought so, too - I'm having mine with a good white wine... ;D
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Post by deziloooooo on Sept 11, 2012 10:51:21 GMT -5
Message deleted by deziloooooo.duplicate
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TonyTiger
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Post by TonyTiger on Sept 11, 2012 10:51:27 GMT -5
"... name me one instance in the primaries when they missed by a mile." You appear to be focused upon primaries. I have been focusing upon general elections.
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deziloooooo
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Post by deziloooooo on Sept 11, 2012 10:51:58 GMT -5
In deference to djlungrot, definitly know his thoughts on this topic..personally I am very surprised at the high # of votes for a third party candidate..even here , where for many who are casting their votes , it may be a good bit of ,
" Oh hell..why not, won't hurt anything..lets do it "
I do wonder what would be the case in the real world...so upset actually not vote at all..or vote other issues, congressional and questions but leave the main one for the next four years blank..or possible vote the third party candidate.
Would suggest if another poll run the third party is left off..but won't because of the up roar..do hope another poll is run before election though...
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 11, 2012 10:53:40 GMT -5
"... name me one instance in the primaries when they missed by a mile." You appear to be focused upon primaries. I have been focusing upon general elections. i realize that. however, the primaries are more difficult to call, as a general rule, than the general elections. why? because there is less sampling. the polling was generally good in 2010, and i suspect it will be even better this year. the models get tighter and tighter. pretty soon, we won't even need to vote.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 11, 2012 10:54:58 GMT -5
In deference to djlungrot, definitly know his thoughts on this topic..personally I am very surprised at the high # of votes for a third party candidate..even here , where for many who are casting their votes , it may be a good bit of , " Oh hell..why not, won't hurt anything..lets do it " i think you are underestimating my powers of persuasion. ;D (note to the board: i am totally kidding. but i HAVE lobbied hard, here).
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