2011 Long Term Contest

[yclept]

Naah, my dog's uglier than your dog! SUPG; bought back in the mid to late nineties for about $4 about 10,000 sh; did sell about 1000 sh somewhere around $29. Watched the rest go to ~$75 and then held it all the way back down to about $2 -- kept holding and finally got out somewhere back in '03 for about $6.
That was over $600k of what should have been profit down the toilet. And there were plenty of signals. Near the high, Larry Ellison sold his early investor stake. The founder of the company, Rubenfeld, (one of the four original founders of Amgen and inventor of the 10-second developer for Polaroid cameras) -- anyway, he aged out and took most of his money. I smelled a rat when he and Ellison hid their stock sales as part of a secondary offering by the company, but I think I must have liked the smell of rat back then. Rubenfeld's wife had a highly paid job in the company for which she seemed to have no qualifying education or experience, likewise his son.
Anyway, I see it's taken quite a nice run the last several weeks from about $2.50 to $3.25, and to think I could still be holding it in hopes of getting my $4 back.
Ah, but I do fondly remember those warm summer days in the late nineties; spend a little time in the morning buying and selling Markman's latest momentum screen (adding and subtracting them from my "core" holdings like glowworm, Transwitch, Intel, Cisco and others whose names I have mercifully forgotten); take a nice walk, and come back a little before market close to see that I'd again gained $15-$20k, and think, "oh, how nice". Day after day of gains of that order -- "how nice", I must be a genius.
It was to be awhile (and too late) before I finally came to the realization the INTC, TXCC, GLW, CSCO were not to be my salvation, but were rather the executioner's tools laid out before me prior to the hanging, drawing, and quartering I was condemned to experience.

[2kids10horses]

wxyz,

Did you get hooked into buying QCOM? I had some calls on QCOM I had bought about a month before they announced the 4 for 1 split. Geez! What a rocket ride!

The day they actually split, I sold out. But not until I had given back 1/2 my profit.

[yclept]

I can't find the PTNR dividend I reported earlier -- I think I must have mixed it up with something else. So I've removed it from my dividend list, which now looks as follows:

	Total	$122,914.50
Date	Ticker	Div Amt
12/23/10	NLY	$17,600.00
12/29/10	MFA	$14,030.00
12/23/10	ANH	$15,040.00
12/27/10	AGNC	$11,900.00
02/08/11	EVN	$1,760.00
02/10/11	CLCT	$1,332.50
03/08/11	EVN	$1,760.00
03/14/11	PTNR	$4,400.00
03/10/11	FDI	$3,230.00
03/10/11	CLCT	$5,973.00
03/29/11	NLY	$8,866.00
04/07/11	EVN	$1,760.00
03/29/11	CMO	$9,430.00
04/07/11	MFA	$6,900.00
05/06/11	EVN	$1,760.00
05/12/11	LPHI	$11,200.00
05/11/11	CLCT	$5,973.00
0	0	$0.00

[IPAfan]

I designed my game portfolio to be a long portfolio invested in undervalued companies (usually looking at companies at discounts to their assets) that I think would outperform in a broad market correction. The main tenet of value investing is watching out for the downside, and buying assets with a margin of safety. If my portfolio is selling at a much lower valuation than the market indices, then the gap should close if my companies are managed as well the indices.

This is the tricky part. You can buy a lot of undervalued assets in the market that are poorly managed. Unless management is changed the intrinsic value of the investment won't keep up with the broader markets. These "value" stocks aren't good long term investments.

So one of my original strategies (which I believe is very viable) is to buy only the very cheapest of companies with serious problems. To make profits all you need to do is take your profits on big swings, and eat losses as part of your strategy. This requires a lot of attention, and in my experience and research can yield ~15-20% annually through a full market cycle. If I had 4-5 million to invest I'd definitely spend the time and invest $1-$2 million like this. At this point the "alpha" isn't really worth the extra work.

My game strategy (and personal investment strategy right now) is to focus on better run companies that are still trading at low valuations. Perhaps not deep value prices (less than half of NAV), but at slight discounts to NAV. Ben Graham would disapprove of this technique as it doesn't provide a sufficient margin of safety, and speculates about the future ability of management at these companies to generate returns. I think it's possible to develop a value/growth based long term investment stance (akin to buy and hold) in a way that would outperform the indices.

[IPAfan]

Another investment strategy that might work (and take less time, but more discipline) would be a combination of several quantitative models shown to outperform the markets over time. With a portfolio of even $200,000 you could create your own widely diversified mutual fund based on different models shown to provide excess returns.

A portion could be magic formula stocks; net-nets, NCAV, EV/B, EV/FCF, etc., etc. Allocate .5% or 1% to each position, and buy every position in the bottom decile of each respective screening model. Re-balance annually and you're looking at a minimal time investment, a lot of diversification, and above average likely returns.

[2kids10horses]

I had some QCOM. Back in those days, you could download the Bid/Ask orders of the Island. Part of NASDAQ. At the end of the day, QCOM would go up by dollars at a time. Not unusual for it to go up $25 a day, $20 of that in the last half hour of trading.

I pretty much had the same stocks in my portfolio as you. No SBUX or IBM, tho.

I friend of mine got in early in SBUX. He was a commercial real estate broker, and he leased out some space to SBUX, and thought so much of it, he bought tons of shares. He did really, really well for a while. In fact, he was wanting to quit doing real estate to concentrate on trading SBUX. He would go to an SBUX with a laptop, and trade the stock!

Those were the days.

[IPAfan]

Well this is one way to catch up, but it's certainly not my favorite. I picked this portfolio with the intent that it would be more conservative on the downside (for instance TTT has most of its market cap in cash so I don't see as much downside as the general market).

wxyz, in regards to my rambling above...I don't know how much research and investment a good value strategy needs to use. I spend a lot of time reading annual reports trying to find a few companies that I want to hold for a long time. I think that's a valid investment approach, but takes a lot of time. It would be far easier to pick 5 or 6 quant value strategies (basically just screeners). Add stocks from the bottom decile of each screen. If you're putting together a 20 stock portfolio like this I think you need to do further research into the companies, but if you put together a 100 stock portfolio based on a few different value strategies (like magic formula, EV/Tangible assets, EV/FCF) it wouldn't be hard to manage at all.

You could simply run the screen to add more stocks from the bottom decile, and only sell when they're above 50th percentile according to each respective screen. You could sell after 3 years if the valuation is above the bottom decile but below 50th percentile after that time.

This is basically what Dremen has advocated for a long time. He focuses on ridiculously simple valuation metrics like P/S, P/FCF, P/Dividend, P/E, and P/B. He picks up hundreds or thousands of stocks, but only buys companies trading in the bottom decile. He's managed to put up some nice outperformance over a long period of time. The way he invests, it's not necessary to read annual reports. It makes a ton of sense for a professional who's too busy to put time into investing (I fall in that category, but at this time I enjoy investing too much to take a more passive diversified approach).

This is all somewhat moot with me because my stock portfolio is only worth about $42,000. So I think at most I'd want a 30 stock portfolio. This gives me enough to pick values from one type of value screen, but doesn't let me get tons of diversification.

Finally, I like the idea of creating value metrics that are different than those used by other investors. The point is that if you use a few categories that help establish value, rank stocks, and buy the bottom decile, you are buying value. But everyone uses P/E, P/B etc. That's why I'm more interested in metrics like EV/Tangible Assets instead of P/B for instance (P/B looks at market cap / book value, but EV/Tangible Assets looks at market cap + debt - cash / tangible assets - cash).

[IPAfan]

One other thing. If you were going to use a totally quant strategy I'd want to look at how various different screening methodologies work during strong and weak markets. My goal would most likely be to outperform in weak markets, and do an asset allocation model to different strategies trying to invest more when prices are better. Then you simply rebalance your portfolio when it gets too far out of whack.

For instance I'd want maybe 25% magic formula stocks (or some variation of MF), 25% EV/Tangible Assets stocks, 15% dividend growth, 15% high dividend (but reward companies with health FCF payout ratios and debt level in the calculation so you're focusing on less risky high dividend companies). That accounts for 80% right there. Add in 1% positions of net-nets and negative EV companies (with Ben Graham's restrictions on companies burning money) which could include preferred stock trading well below par if the liquidation analysis is satisfied. Otherwise, keep the 20% as cash if it can't be invested in appropriate stocks.

The allocation to cash/net-nets could be modified based on age, market valuation, or whatever. So for instance if the market is really expensive and you expect a crash, you could modify to a 50/50 stance, keeping in mind that to diversify into 50% of your portfolio as net-nets with 1% positions is going to require market conditions like we had in 2008/2009 (but would hugely outperform as this would dampen the fall and then invest in assets likely to outperform going forward).

Honestly, this would be a great portfolio for me, but I'm too prone to being a stock picker (for instance I have $25,000 of my $42,000 in stock investments in TTT and would like to have more of it). Over my career this could certainly burn me, or make me a lot of profit. I should probably move most of my portfolio over to a plan like this once I've got a few hundred thousand dollars to invest.

This keeps you mostly invested in value strategies at all times, and then keeps you with a chunk of cash until prices reach objectively low levels. The main set of investments is based on RELATIVE VALUE (i.e. breaking up companies based on deciles) where the last category is based on absolute value. Right now there are only a few Graham net-nets in the market. The market is going to be unnaturally depressed to give you an opportunity to invest in a lot of net-nets at the same time which is often a good time to buy.

[IPAfan]

wxyz,

The strategy should outperform the markets as each of those strategies is shown to outperform the market averages over time. The net-nets substantially so, however they're only available when there's blood in the street (which is why they make an interesting asset allocation tool along with the relative value approaches). I think the consistently long portfolio will tend to outperform in a down market because of the allocation to conservative dividends and the book value measure of ev/ta will put financials with super leveraged financials on the same playing field. The cash allocation will likely be deployed AFTER a large decline in the markets, further dampening underperformance in a down market.

The law practice is not booming by any means, but it's creating a decent income for the first time ever. I'd say my income is on the high end of a salary for an attorney with my level of experience (last year it was WAY lower than having normal employment) locally. I'm working long hours though, and spending a lot of time building my competency even though I'm not getting paid well for it. I see the opportunity to grow this asset so that I can make more than I could as a salaried attorney, but this requires investment in time, experience, and money. If I can grow the top line by another 50% I could leverage my work by hiring an assistant and possibly an associate.

The cost of sending my wife to law school will certainly be a big drag this year. I need every dollar I can get to grow the business, and we're going to try to pay for tuition out of cashflow. Still, I feel like it could be a great long term use of the money even if we don't start to see any financial payback for 5 years. Here are the numbers I'm working with - We have 3 young kids at home, so I'll undoubtedly shell out some extra cash for some sort of childcare/school as well. DW will do a 4 year program, estimate $15,000 a year. If she passes/passes bar the first time, if she worked 15 hours (conservative) a week earning an entry level wage for 2 years ($30/hr, net of 35% in taxes = $14,625 X 2 = $29,250), 3 years at 15 hours at $45/hr = $21,937 (net of taxes) x 3 = $65,812. So we'd be looking at about $60,000 outlay over 4 years and $95,000 in cash over the next decade. Not the greatest annual returns in the first ten years (but these are conservative assumptions) and IRR will be OK because the capital is deployed over 4 years instead of all up front, but certainly seems like it can work out well in the long run.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

There is a lot of great info there beerfan, thanks. My sister in-law graduated law school a couple years back, I would say that 15 hours a week is very conservative. She works 15 h a day!

[IPAfan]

I work 15 hours a day too. I'm just trying to see if this would pay itself back in a reasonable amount of time if my wife were to work part time (since we still have young kids at home). It looks like even at 15 hours a week we'd see a payback.

I've personally earned more than my law school tuition and most of my living costs in law school in the 1.5 years I've been admitted to practice law. Pretty quick payback, and it should be quicker with my wife because she doesn't work at all right now. Our income side of the books would certainly be taken care of, but I've got a lot of saving/investing to do (and a house to buy).

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I hear ya, I always like to be conservative with my estimates as well. IMO, looking at the house first is probably the best. Get rid of the rent, which will help with the saving/investing, again JMO.

[tyfighter3]

Current Rank «
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1
wxyz
$2,144,348.34
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beerfan
$2,102,330.08
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fvbridges
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Gettin Rich in IN
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2806rick
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braje
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tyfighter3
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uncle.23
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gdgyva
$1,331,818.90
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-33.41%
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[tyfighter3]

I couldn't see where he went up 8% WHERE all but 3 stocks where down. Bad day all around.

[IPAfan]

No idea what happened to my account. I've been busy in trial all week and haven't had a chance to check. Yesterday was sort of tough on my account, but nothing like the loss the game is showing. Not sure, and don't really care. I think I should be around 5% + 2% in dividends YTD.

[IPAfan]

Ah...looks like the game made my FRFHF.PK position go to $0 which is about 5% of my portfolio and that makes up for the loss. The stock is really trading for $390 a share or just under 5% of my portfolio.

[yclept]

Got another little monthly dividend from EVN which should bring my dividends to this point:

	Total	$124,674.50
Date	Ticker	Div Amt
12/23/10	NLY	$17,600.00
12/29/10	MFA	$14,030.00
12/23/10	ANH	$15,040.00
12/27/10	AGNC	$11,900.00
02/08/11	EVN	$1,760.00
02/10/11	CLCT	$1,332.50
03/08/11	EVN	$1,760.00
03/14/11	PTNR	$4,400.00
03/10/11	FDI	$3,230.00
03/10/11	CLCT	$5,973.00
03/29/11	NLY	$8,866.00
04/07/11	EVN	$1,760.00
03/29/11	CMO	$9,430.00
04/07/11	MFA	$6,900.00
05/06/11	EVN	$1,760.00
05/12/11	LPHI	$11,200.00
05/11/11	CLCT	$5,973.00
06/08/11	EVN	$1,760.00

I also sold LPHI which is in some kind of delisting and lawsuit problems -- I didn't really look into it very deeply. It lost me nearly a quarter million in this portfolio and dropped from the dividend screen that originally picked it, but I'm not sure when it dropped. If this was real money, I'm sure I would be paying much closer attention to the happenings and news regarding the stocks in this port. It's not real money and I don't own any of these in real ports, so they get little attention. I guess the results I'm showing speak for themselves with respect to just screening a bunch of big-dividend payers and hoping they will provide returns and take care of themselves.

[tyfighter3]

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d1
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Gettin Rich in IN
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fvbridges
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uncle.23
$1,570,329.51
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gdgyva
$1,259,458.65
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[IPAfan]

Thinking of adding more TTT to my personal holdings. Already very much overweight on this company, but I think the risk/reward is excellent with most of the share price in cash and a lot of positive catalysts. I'm throwing diversification out the window with this one, however I think the huge cash position helps reduce the inherent risk of taking a concentrated long position like this.

[IPAfan]

Well I did some quick calculations. Between my KHDHF dividend and the FRFHF shares my portfolio is understated by $116,310 at current market values. Then I've made ~$30,000 in dividends. So my total portfolio should be at about $2,138,722. That's a 6.93% return YTD including dividends.

[IPAfan]

This game is so stupid. It's getting so far off now that it's going to take too many calculations to figure out where my actual return is.

Now the game is:

1) Missing all my dividends
2) Missing my KHDHF spinoff shares
3) Valuing my FRFHF.PK at $0
4) Valuing my new short position in HMPR at $0 (which is the reason for the ridiculously large % increase I saw today)

The HMPR short seems to be going well to begin with as the stock is down 7% today, but far short of the 100% decline the game is showing.

EDIT:

The funny thing is that the current bank error in my favor is pretty close in value to the previous bank errors not in my favor.

[IPAfan]

d

[IPAfan]

We should find another platform for next year's game. There's got to be something better out there. At this point my portfolio is back to SLIGHTLY understated on total return, but it really takes some mental gymnastics to figure out. I've got to adjust for a spinoff that's never been shown, dividends, one long position wrongly gone to nothing, and one short position wrongly gone to nothing.

I added some more TTT in the game today. I know that it's ridiculous to have 50% of my assets in one company, but I'd honestly probably do the same thing even with a $2 million portfolio. Personally I have closer to 60% of my assets in Terra Nova. You all have seen my ad nauseum posts regarding the value here. I don't know if the value will be realized this year, but I think there's a very high probability of this company doubling over three years and I just have a hard time seeing large losses based on the assets.

I suppose I'll end up getting screwed some day by taking massive concentrated positions. So far I've made the vast majority of my investment profits from 2-3 concentrated positions in physical gold at $250/oz, EROC at $2.50 (I put over half of my portfolio in this while I was studying for the bar exam and ended up making more in investment profits than I made in earnings in 2009), and GSL/QLTI (not quite as concentrated, but both large very successful positions).

When making a big investment I'm way more concerned about downside than upside. All of my investments have as much upside potential as TTT imo, but I don't think any have as little downside risk and thus the huge concentration.

EDIT:

I'm going to leave my HMPR short position open so that I can calculate how much that return is overstated. So far HMPR is actually at $18 so I should be showing a 10% profit, and therefore that position is overstated by $135,000 in gains.

[tyfighter3]

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tyfighter3
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gdgyva
$1,247,878.15
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[tyfighter3]

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Gettin Rich in IN
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tyfighter3
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gdgyva
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[IPAfan]

Well I'm now back to being understated by 2-3% points. I'll have a chance to calculate the numbers in a bit (adjust FRFHF and HMPR to market, add in the KHDHF spinoff, and add in dividends).

The HMPR short has been a great move...really wish I made it in my real portfolio. The stock is down 50% since I added the position a week or two ago. I'd be looking to cover now, but I'm just going to leave the position open so I can adjust to find my real portfolio value. If I close the position I'd have to keep track of the gain with nothing in the portfolio to refer to. At this point it's still relatively easy to figure out the portfolio return but takes a few minutes

I'm optimistic that I could have a 20%+ year this year depending on how well TTT performs. The stock is very depressed, represents 50% of my portfolio, has a lot of catalysts, and I'm already up 8-9% for the year. Of course these gains could evaporate, but I'm pretty comfortable with my game portfolio right now.

[yclept]

	Total	$131,924.50
Date	Ticker	Div Amt
12/23/10	NLY	$17,600.00
12/29/10	MFA	$14,030.00
12/23/10	ANH	$15,040.00
12/27/10	AGNC	$11,900.00
02/08/11	EVN	$1,760.00
02/10/11	CLCT	$1,332.50
03/08/11	EVN	$1,760.00
03/14/11	PTNR	$4,400.00
03/10/11	FDI	$3,230.00
03/10/11	CLCT	$5,973.00
03/29/11	NLY	$8,866.00
04/07/11	EVN	$1,760.00
03/29/11	CMO	$9,430.00
04/07/11	MFA	$6,900.00
05/06/11	EVN	$1,760.00
05/12/11	LPHI	$11,200.00
05/11/11	CLCT	$5,973.00
06/08/11	EVN	$1,760.00
06/27/11	PTNR	$7,250.00

Another dividend came slogging in today. Brings total dividends to $131,924.50, which is nowhere near enough to make up for the loss in value of the portfolio.

[yclept]

A couple of more dividends came in:

	Total	$152,259.50
Date	Ticker	Div Amt
12/23/10	NLY	$17,600.00
12/29/10	MFA	$14,030.00
12/23/10	ANH	$15,040.00
12/27/10	AGNC	$11,900.00
02/08/11	EVN	$1,760.00
02/10/11	CLCT	$1,332.50
03/08/11	EVN	$1,760.00
03/14/11	PTNR	$4,400.00
03/10/11	FDI	$3,230.00
03/10/11	CLCT	$5,973.00
03/29/11	NLY	$8,866.00
04/07/11	EVN	$1,760.00
03/29/11	CMO	$9,430.00
04/07/11	MFA	$6,900.00
05/06/11	EVN	$1,760.00
05/12/11	LPHI	$11,200.00
05/11/11	CLCT	$5,973.00
06/08/11	EVN	$1,760.00
06/27/11	PTNR	$7,250.00
06/28/11	CMO	$11,040.00
06/28/11	NLY	$9,295.00

[tyfighter3]

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wxyz
$2,239,807.97
+2.37%
+11.99%
0

2
k64
$2,202,428.90
+2.78%
+10.12%
13

3
beerfan
$2,160,429.00
+0.74%
+8.02%
12

4
fvbridges
$2,078,381.50
+1.31%
+3.92%
1

5
d1
$2,069,754.45
+0.57%
+3.49%
9

6
braje
$2,050,181.10
+1.87%
+2.51%
11

7
Gettin Rich in IN
$2,000,000.00
+0.00%
+0.00%
0

8
tyfighter3
$1,906,747.24
+1.17%
-4.66%
14

9
2806rick
$1,899,539.85
+1.29%
-5.02%
0

10
Yclept
$1,735,390.85
+1.10%
-13.23%
2

11
uncle.23
$1,656,561.51
+4.37%
-17.17%
0

12
gdgyva
$1,385,538.65
-0.63%
-30.72%
0

[yclept]

Another dividend came limping in:

	Total	$154,019.50
Date	Ticker	Div Amt
12/23/10	NLY	$17,600.00
12/29/10	MFA	$14,030.00
12/23/10	ANH	$15,040.00
12/27/10	AGNC	$11,900.00
02/08/11	EVN	$1,760.00
02/10/11	CLCT	$1,332.50
03/08/11	EVN	$1,760.00
03/14/11	PTNR	$4,400.00
03/10/11	FDI	$3,230.00
03/10/11	CLCT	$5,973.00
03/29/11	NLY	$8,866.00
04/07/11	EVN	$1,760.00
03/29/11	CMO	$9,430.00
04/07/11	MFA	$6,900.00
05/06/11	EVN	$1,760.00
05/12/11	LPHI	$11,200.00
05/11/11	CLCT	$5,973.00
06/08/11	EVN	$1,760.00
06/27/11	PTNR	$7,250.00
06/28/11	CMO	$11,040.00
06/28/11	NLY	$9,295.00
07/07/11	EVN	$1,760.00

This high-dividend holding scheme has pretty much proven itself a bust. Glad I tried it here instead of with real money! But then, I guess I can still hope for a market crash. We haven't had a significant downturn in the last 2 years. This port would, of course lose money too, but would probably lose a lot less than the market in general. Not much of a way to deploy money! Hoping to lose less than the general market!