2011 Long Term Contest

[tyfighter3]

Players 1-12 of 12

<< Previous Next >>
Current Rank «
Nickname
Net Worth
Today's Return
Total Return
Transactions last 40 days

1
tyfighter3
$2,288,214.55
-0.11%
+14.41%
41

2
beerfan
$2,280,149.32
-0.81%
+14.01%
0

3
wxyz
$2,174,126.33
-1.05%
+8.71%
0

4
gdgyva
$2,155,313.80
-1.19%
+7.77%
18

5
braje
$2,128,854.32
-0.23%
+6.44%
31

6
uncle.23
$2,085,402.31
-1.98%
+4.27%
23

7
2806rick
$2,049,344.85
-0.36%
+2.47%
4

8
d1
$2,038,612.85
-0.33%
+1.93%
2

9
Yclept
$2,027,904.80
-0.29%
+1.40%
9

10
k64
$2,023,466.35
-0.25%
+1.17%
19

11
Gettin Rich in IN
$2,000,000.00
+0.00%
+0.00%
0

12
fvbridges
$1,948,358.85
-0.39%
-2.58%
26

[dothedd]

B R A V O, Ty!

On my way out to dinner, but will look at it later.

[IPAfan]

Well the market has just been crushing me lately. This is pretty much representative of my real portfolio as well as it is heavily invested in TTT, ENH, FRFHF, KHDHF, and PM.

Still looking at respectable gains for the year, but a pullback should be expected after such a move I suppose. Doesn't make a lot of difference to me in the long term. I think I'm comfortable owning all these companies with a price pullback (and it might give me an opportunity to increase my positions.) My balance sheet is not entirely deleveraged, but I've paid down quite a bit of debt, and have enough cash that I could take on another 10% position without stretching too much. I'll wait for more of a pullback first.

If we don't get more pullback I'll keep paying off debt. I need to work on refinancing some credit card debt that's rolled over and is now costing me 9%. I should pretty easily be able to roll it over, but I may just pay it off instead.

[tyfighter3]

<< Previous Next >>
Current Rank «
Nickname
Net Worth
Today's Return
Total Return
Transactions last 40 days

1
beerfan
$2,206,836.69
+0.35%
+10.34%
2

2
wxyz
$2,136,852.33
+1.14%
+6.84%
0

3
tyfighter3
$2,124,355.75
+2.35%
+6.22%
41

4
gdgyva
$2,107,135.20
-0.18%
+5.36%
24

5
braje
$2,053,885.41
+0.17%
+2.69%
35

6
d1
$2,045,129.85
+0.18%
+2.26%
2

7
k64
$2,016,843.20
+0.45%
+0.84%
24

8
Yclept
$2,002,367.80
+0.02%
+0.12%
5

9
Gettin Rich in IN
$2,000,000.00
+0.00%
+0.00%
0

10
2806rick
$1,981,844.85
+1.54%
-0.91%
3

11
fvbridges
$1,913,891.90
+0.53%
-4.31%
19

12
uncle.23
$1,902,879.31
+1.11%
-4.86%
16

[soycapital]

Beer, Looking at ENH to determine how much exposure to the japan quake. They appear to have dropped withing buying range. Know how to find out anyone? Search meself but now luck.

[IPAfan]

Soy,

I don't think I can answer your question accurately. However I'll tell you the reasoning I've got going into this. After hurricane Katrina ENH had a bad underwriting year along with all the other insurers. However there was no significant long term draw down in nav. Even with the Katrina drawdown ENH has performed well over the whole cycle.

I'm no expert on insurance evaluation and admit that all ins companies are black boxes to some extent. However, in my opinion ENH seems to be one of the best underwriters and has produced excellent underwriting profits in a soft market.

I think that a top quality underwriter with a safe investment portfolio and a history of high teens ROE should be worth at least 1.2 x BV and would probably be a good investment at about 1.15-1.2x BV (which represents BV plus avg BV growth for one year.)

Even if ENH suffers a 20% drawdown in BV (which I find unlikely but possible) it would be sitting on $40 per share in common shareholder equity. That would put the current price at 1.15x BV under pretty conservative assumptions x

I'm sure the market would over react and temporarily send the share price south (for a good buying opportunity.) If I had no position in ENH I'd be looking to start one now. ENH is a 15%!position for me now and I'm even considering buying more.

[soycapital]

Thanks Beer, I should probably at least establish a position with it at this level, will put it on the list!

[yclept]

The Japanese insurance claims will dwarf Katrina. First of all, the Japanese people are conservative and would not go uninsured, thus almost everything lost (structures, vehicles, boats, nuclear power plants) will be found to have been insured. Many of the total losses in Katrina were to vehicles and dwellings whose owners had no insurance against such loss. Next, property costs a lot more in Japan, and the properties lost were, on average, of higher quality than those in New Orleans (so you've got fancier dwellings in a place where any dwelling costs much more than it's counterpart in New Orleans). Another point, Japan's current building codes will make the rebuilt structures even more expensive than the ones they replaced. There has been a significant amount of shoddy rebuilding in New Orleans -- hose the place out, replace broken windows, and slap on a coat of paint -- there, good as ever! Mold? Hell it had mold before, it's got mold now -- what's the difference? Finally, the devastation in Japan is far more widespread than that from Katrina was -- more structures, more vehicles, more lives (probably insured), more factories; just plain more! And then, the extent of the nuclear damage is yet to be known.
I expect the insurance claims for this disaster to exceed any in previous history; probably by multiple powers of 10 -- my off-the-wall guess is 1000 times the worst ever encountered to date. Any insurance company with direct coverage or reinsurance liability is going to suffer tremendous losses over the next couple of years.
The rest of us are going to see unprecedented insurance rate hikes as the insurance industry attempts to avoid going belly-up. Of course some people will have the option of self-insuring, but many with mortgages too large to cash out will have to pay the new rates. Renters will have to pay it through increased rents -- what does the landlord care? Rentals are a sellers market right now due to the large number of displaced people from the housing foreclosure market.
That's the way I see it -- gloomy, as usual. Let's hope there's something wrong with my analysis.

[tyfighter3]

<< Previous Next >>
Current Rank «
Nickname
Net Worth
Today's Return
Total Return
Transactions last 40 days

1
beerfan
$2,171,464.77
+0.00%
+8.57%
2

2
tyfighter3
$2,122,665.75
+0.00%
+6.13%
37

3
gdgyva
$2,075,206.35
+0.00%
+3.76%
17

4
wxyz
$2,059,830.13
+0.00%
+2.99%
0

5
d1
$2,027,158.90
+0.00%
+1.36%
1

6
k64
$2,018,583.60
+0.00%
+0.93%
32

7
Gettin Rich in IN
$2,000,000.00
+0.00%
+0.00%
0

8
Yclept
$1,999,325.30
+0.00%
-0.03%
2

9
2806rick
$1,983,412.35
+0.00%
-0.83%
1

10
braje
$1,972,677.14
+0.00%
-1.37%
41

11
fvbridges
$1,906,871.90
+0.00%
-4.66%
12

12
uncle.23
$1,821,126.31
+0.00%
-8.94%
13

[tyfighter3]

I have to post this before BeerFan takes back 1"st place. LOL
<< Previous Next >>
Current Rank «
Nickname
Net Worth
Today's Return
Total Return
Transactions last 40 days

1
tyfighter3
$2,197,225.75
+3.51%
+9.86%
36

2
beerfan
$2,194,734.00
+1.07%
+9.74%
2

3
gdgyva
$2,119,731.35
+2.15%
+5.99%
17

4
wxyz
$2,107,263.28
+2.30%
+5.36%
0

5
k64
$2,035,823.60
+0.85%
+1.79%
32

6
d1
$2,029,764.40
+0.13%
+1.49%
1

7
2806rick
$2,020,998.85
+1.90%
+1.05%
1

8
Yclept
$2,013,084.80
+0.69%
+0.65%
2

9
braje
$2,003,401.59
+1.56%
+0.17%
44

10
Gettin Rich in IN
$2,000,000.00
+0.00%
+0.00%
0

11
fvbridges
$1,919,821.90
+0.68%
-4.01%
10

12
uncle.23
$1,888,047.31
+3.67%
-5.60%
8

[tyfighter3]

A nice day in the Market for everybody.

[tyfighter3]

This is the first year in a long time that events have made me change the way I like to invest, overnight. I guess I will have to play my cards and see how they turn out. Hoping that by the year end I can go back to the way I like to invest. Don't ask me what that is because I would have a hard time explaining it. LOL

[tyfighter3]

Some K for you DI.

[IPAfan]

Wxyz I really appreciate your investment style and can definitely see myself moving in the direction of only buying companies that are likely to be profitable king term investments.

My strategy is definitely long term and I try to find companies which should perform well over 5-10 years. However my practice is more short term. Many of my successful investments I've sold after a year having found other investments that i think are better at current valuations.

[yclept]

I spent some time today to look up dividends I haven't previously reported:

EVN paid 3/8; .08/sh x 22000 sh = $1760
PTNR paid 3/14; .40/sh x 11000 sh = $4400
FDI paid 3/10; .19/sh x 17000 sh = $ 3230

[IPAfan]

I'm responding by phone so I'll try to keep it brief.

Economy in CA:

It's really tough. A lot of people are completely broke and everyone is being pretty frugal. I know that my field (mostly criminal defense) is hurting in general and lowering fees (lots of people going to public defenders on fixed budgets and huge caseloads.) with that said my business is definitely growing since I'm still establishing. At this point I haven't been able to earn enough to put aside much significant savings. Hopefully moving in that direction but still need to put more money into the practice and deleveraging before I can start growing my investments (not to mention buying a house.)

If the economy goes into a double dip I'll try to get into court appointed work (criminal appeals might be steady money in bad times.) if the economy recovers I hope to have established a practice that can make some nice profits.

At this point I think I can make more than 15% by investing in my business (of course this requires work) so I will probably continue to pay for more advertising.

Actually looking at taking on a Spanish speaking paralegal and trying to do radio advertising.

[yclept]

Whoops, I missed a recent dividend in above post:
CLCT paid 3/10 0.33/sh x 18,100 sh = $5973.00

The portfolio itself isn't doing much by way of capital gains, but when the dividends are added in, it would move me up the list aways.

Then yesterday, just to have something to play with, I added some QID which I plan to sashay back and forth with QLD as the sun, moon, winds and readings of goat entrails dictate. So far the QID is hurtin' fer certain.

[tyfighter3]

What a BEAR RAID on NOG.
blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/03/23/northern-oil-gas-gets-a-bear-raid/?mod=msn_money_ticker

[tyfighter3]

What a buying opportunity. It was down around a $1, now up around a $1. Looks like they are taking their money and running.

[tyfighter3]

Hear is a good read on Balkan Reserves.
seekingalpha.com/article/259901-continental-resources-and-the-might-of-bakken-oil-reserve?source=marketwatch

[tyfighter3]

Here is a good read on Oil Stocks with a high PE.
seekingalpha.com/article/260086-10-oil-stocks-with-low-peg-ratios?source=marketwatch

[IPAfan]

I think my main holding TTT is probably a good buy right now. However, 2010 earnings will be posted on 3/30 and may reflect some losses due to Mass Financial's latest venture which went south. The overall value of the Canoro gas investment is pretty small compared to the size of Terra Nova. Personally I'd be a buyer at these levels, but I'm already heavily invested in the game and in real life. I'm still sitting on a 10% profit overall on my TTT position in my personal accounts after adjusting for the KHDHF spinoff shares (I've sold half of these and kept the other half so far.)

I guess more downside is certainly possible especially if there's a particularly bad year end report in a few days. With that said I think that overall this company will see NAV per share growth far in excess of any short term losses. At 90% of pro forma book value I think this is a good time to invest. However, if there's a bad earnings report it will likely be cheaper in the near future.

[tyfighter3]

<< Previous Next >>
Current Rank «
Nickname
Net Worth
Today's Return
Total Return
Transactions last 40 days

1
tyfighter3
$2,188,475.75
+2.38%
+9.42%
30

2
beerfan
$2,158,916.70
-0.55%
+7.95%
2

3
wxyz
$2,158,881.30
+0.89%
+7.94%
14

4
gdgyva
$2,112,473.85
+0.30%
+5.62%
17

5
braje
$2,071,390.10
+0.21%
+3.57%
47

6
2806rick
$2,066,374.85
+0.65%
+3.32%
1

7
k64
$2,048,418.60
+0.05%
+2.42%
32

8
d1
$2,032,664.90
+0.07%
+1.63%
1

9
Gettin Rich in IN
$2,000,000.00
+0.00%
+0.00%
0

10
Yclept
$1,974,124.50
-0.30%
-1.29%
6

11
fvbridges
$1,934,084.40
+0.24%
-3.30%
9

12
uncle.23
$1,913,337.46
+0.17%
-4.33%
8

[tyfighter3]

Is this quick enough WXYZ?

[tyfighter3]

A sqeaker at $46.00 WHYZ.

[IPAfan]

I believe I had mentioned before that if I were looking for max gains over a short game I probably would have started to take some profits on TTT when my game portfolio was sitting on 15%. However, I think TTT will be a good long term investment. If the stock goes up 20% real quick then it's likely to come back down again, but for my long term investments its not worth selling while hoping to get a 10-15% pullback.

I'll take my chances on pullbacks or even negative investment return years in order to stay in the game for larger potential returns. The unique thing about stock investments is their asymmetric reward profile where one wildly successful long term investment can make up for a lot of bad performance. This is possible because 10-100X returns are possible in equities. I've personally flirted with a few 10 baggers, but I've sold all of them too soon. Up to this point I would have done better if I'd let my winners run, but then I would never have had money to invest in new winners (and losers.)

I'm taking a lot of risk with my position size in TTT. However, TTT is sitting on a huge net cash position, several businesses that will continue to produce profits going forward and a management with a good history of turnarounds, activist investments, and restructuring small businesses. My rationale for moving a lot of my insurance investments over to TTT about 4 months ago is that I expect TTT to grow book value by 15-20% annually over 3-5 years. I felt that insurance would likely grow bv by a similar rate, but with much more leverage and risk. Again, even though TTT is a pretty volatile stock I consider it less risky than most large companies due to its strong balance sheet.

TTT is a bit over 50% of my investment capital, and that doesn't bother me. I don't expect this company to produce huge returns, but 15%+ annually will do the trick. My equity returns will certainly be volatile, but the question is whether I can double my portfolio in 3-5 years without taking crazy risks to my portfolio.

[tyfighter3]

I hear you Beer. I've probably got one of the riskiest ports in the game. Up down up down. I'm starting to think I'm on a carnival ride. LOL But for a younger investor ( which I'm not) more risk should be in your port.

[tyfighter3]

Another good read on NOG.
seekingalpha.com/article/260447-recent-commentary-on-northern-oil-gas-a-short-retort-all-smoke-no-gun?source=marketwatch

[IPAfan]

My investment strategy has been driven by deleveraging my portfolio. I'm pretty much fully invested in my long portfolio (and was leveraged long until recently.) I had total debt (almost all credit cards opened up at an avg. of 0-2% rates) of about 25% of my investment portfolio. Most of my credit card balances started rolling over, and my interest rate went above 10% annually for a while earlier this year.

At that point I started devoting all my FCF to paying off the debt, and have left my investments about the same (I even think we may miss $2,500 of a ROTH contribution for 2010.) I'm worried that stocks are toppish and could correct. This is not a big deal and I'm not planning to liquidate positions even if we do have a downturn. However, I'd prefer to enter a downturn with no leverage and perhaps some dry powder. Right now my debt is paid down to a hair under 5% of my investment capital. If April pans out well I could see getting all the debt paid off, invest a bit more in the business, and finally begin putting some money into the investment portfolio again.

I think a lot of advice about saving a fixed $ amount per month does not apply to me. I find that my cashflow is irregular and often I should be investing in my business instead of stocks. I think I need to hire an employee, but I'm worried that this will instantly kill my profitability unless I can grow my sales. Deciding whether to invest has become more complicated for me as I have a lot of capital requirements and can usually make more money by investing in advertising (but this means I have more cases to handle and more expenses.) Ugh. Fortunately I enjoy capital allocation.

[yclept]

Dividend:
NLY x/d on 3/29 $0.62/sh x 14300sh = $8866.00