The current state of the stock markets

[Value Buy]

For the first time in my investment history, I am not able to feel okay with stock investing.
I believe between the National debt here in the states, and the economic fiasco facing all of Europe, it may all start coming apart this weekend.
The last two weeks I have liquidated half of my portfolio of stocks.
My core holdings are now one utility,
Nisource, two energy stocks, Chevron and Exxon.
Hopefully, I will continue with some dividend income with these choices.
Cut by 75% my holdings in JPM.
Liquidated all of PG, ( this one might be a mistake on my part)Microsoft, Cisco, and K, although cornflakes might become the next big food fad around the world
I have increased my loose silver coin holdings with these sales, as I do expect silver to climb when the economic meltdown occurs, and at least unlike gold, businesses and farmers can make change with any purchases I make with the silver
I am getting close to retirement age, so I might just be getting a little too conservative, but I have never felt this insecure about the markets, and I worry that it might be a recovery that would need fifteen years to regain the losses that might occur.
When our market collapsed back in the 80's I looked at that as a buying opportunity. Not his time.
Greece will not be pretty after the vote this weekend, and Spain is getting worse by the day.
I do not expect any positive economic results happening here when Europe economically implodes this fall, conveniently, after the elections here in November.

Thoughts?

[Virgil Showlion]

I think you're a wise man.

You'll make far less than the few who decide to embrace the volatility and put their money on the right side of various bets, but you'll be the envy of the many who lose their shirts by either doing nothing or betting the wrong way.

Putting your money in secure instruments with a positive return while Europe is melting down? Priceless.

ETA: Also, think of your health. Regardless of whether he comes out on top, a man with $1M invested in the markets is going to close out the coming days having gained $30,000, lost $45,000, gained $15,000, lost $25,000, etc., etc. on 5% daily swings in the market.

Even if he nets a 30% profit overall, if he suffers a heart attack the next week and pays out $300,000 in added insurance premiums, what's the point?

I've been 40%/40%/20% gold/GICs/stocks (mostly Canadian energy stocks) since February. GICs are yielding about 2% after tax, and gold and stocks are flat YTD.

[Deleted]

I myself am down to core holdings

Have sold all the small company stuff

And loaded up on big boys

All mega cap, all at 2-3% dividends, and NO banks

Even if markets implode...these companies arent going anywhere

[The Virginian]

I've tried to start a conversation on this in other threads but so far have not been successful.

Wouldn't your money be safer in stocks than in other forms of investments? Banks can go under , the Dollar can be de-valued, Gold can be declared illegal and confiscated, land can be nationalized - so why not just leave it in stocks? I realize companies can be nationalized or go bankrupt so yes that is risk but all things considered stocks can rebound from a plunge as long as the corporation stays in business. I think that those who left their money in stocks during the great depression, while it took a long time to recover, ended up doing extremely well over the long term. My personal goal is to preserve money for my kids so even if it takes 30 years they could potentially reap rewards from it. I see stocks as one of the best safe havens for money. Are my thoughts wrong?

[Driftr]

VB - I don't know what the right answer is, but if we do get a true deflationary depression, I don't think gold or silver are going to be a better store of wealth than any other commodity.

If you're betting on inflation for food & energy while the markets crumble and governments print money to avoid a debt default, gold and silver should do fine then. It's what comes after that point I think you need to focus on.

In 10-20 years perhaps I'll look back and wish I'd cashed out now and gone to gold/silver, cashed in the gold & silver when the new currency is started, and bought land with it. But I hope not.

Personally I believe that governements will do everything they possibly can to stop the banks and markets from failing or falling. I don't know what else they have they can try, but I expect in the coming years we'll find out.

[The Virginian]

So you guys think it is best to sell out of stocks if things fall apart?

It did work well in 2008 but that was more of a temporary panic brought on buy the housing collapse. I was one that sold out then but I was more afraid and less knowledgeable back then. Many of us from the old boards saw what was happening and sold out and then jumped back in. I didn't get back in as soon as I should have because I kept expecting another decline ( I didn't realize that the QE would correct the market as much as it did).

I fear if Europe falls it could trigger some serious problems with our currency as well, though some speculate that we will benefit as the world's safe haven.

[Deleted]

Value - What I am going to say may seem at cross purposes with Our normal verbage..BUT,,,.

You are nearing retirement, which is in general (IMHO) the time of life when you should be able to Focus on the Grandkids (if you have them), the Kids AGAIN{Lol} (If you have them) and What you want to do that you haven't done thus far in life.
You really can't do that if you are paying attention to the markets (due to having a high Risk load), or focusing on "business".

With that said I think pulling more to ground (conservative) is a smart play - just don't pull to hard to ground..

Enjoy what you have accomplished and the Fruits you can now pick.

I mean really, I think that if everyone was to be honest the true goal (of Investing) is to end up in a spot where an Older you can look at Younger people and go --
"I don't care what you young whippersnappers think, I have earned this Damn it. And another thing you think you are soooo smart, well let me tell you,,,, (While the Young uns Roll their eyes and go "But You just don't get it, Old people never do") "

Basically, if you have done well thus far - you have gotten to the point where you can dispense advice like an automatic ice maker makes Ice - and just like an Automatic Ice maker just keeps making Ice, even if you don't really need it - you can dole out the advice... and well if the Younguns don't like it you can just smile and flip them the bird.. You have earned that right too.

[Driftr]

Jun 15, 2012 12:59:20 GMT -5 The Virginian said:

So you guys think it is best to sell out of stocks if things fall apart?

I think it's best to sell out before they fall apart, but I'm not going to try and time it. I will be staying invested with what we have in until the 20 week for SPY crosses >1% below the 50 week.

It did work well in 2008 but that was more of a temporary panic brought on buy the housing collapse. I was one that sold out then but I was more afraid and less knowledgeable back then. Many of us from the old boards saw what was happening and sold out and then jumped back in. I didn't get back in as soon as I should have because I kept expecting another decline ( I didn't realize that the QE would correct the market as much as it did).

I fear if Europe falls it could trigger some serious problems with our currency as well, though some speculate that we will benefit as the world's safe haven.

I believe our currency and USTNs will certainly benefit until Europe gets it's house in order. Once they do though, will we be expected to? If so, there's trouble on the horizon. IMO.

[Value Buy]

I firmly believed the Euro would be at par with the dollar by now. Actually I expected that months ago.
Instead, it has been gaining against the dollar this week.
Between Greece ignoring their debts, Egypt and their elections where it looks like the military wins (or shall we say, steal) the election.
Spain is about to implode, probably followed by Italy, with the break up of the Euro, and possibly the European Union.
With the many insider trading scandals that have been prosecuted, and Bernie Maddoff's of the world stealing the little guy blind, I am losing faith.
Nasdaq with the Face book disaster was another problem for me. No one, MS, Face book or NASDAQ want to admit any partial responsibility to this fiasco.
Here in the states, we are running a race to see how fast we can bankrupt the country, because we refuse to say enough is enough in benefits to just about everyone, including our billionaires.
I honestly thought our economy was improving, but now the data shows we are sliding backward again.
Obama's answer so far?
Really nothing. He does not have a clue. His communication skills (or ability to get everyone to follow him) are deteriorating.
Three years ago he could sell ice to Eskimos. Now even his own Democratic brethren are losing the faith. Today's announcement of basically green carding young illegal Mexicans who do not even know they are here illegally (yea, his words....) sounded great, but realistically he was just lining up the flagging Hispanic vote for him this fall.
With Bush, we all knew we were not listening to a great communicator, and could work around his faults. Now with Obama, without his bravado showing, I worry even more.
(note: I am not trying to turn this political. Just stating my and many other investors view of what is happening nationally.)
I did not even really worry over the economic meltdown of 2007 and 2008, but this time it feels differently.
It is time to consolidate and protect what is left.
I do admit, I have left my two IRA'S intact. One with Fidelity, one with Windsor.
My 401-k, I moved to a more defensive, less aggressive format. Lost a lot on the overseas exposure, at this point, so I am now all S&P 500 in it.
So, I guess I have not forsaken the stock markets totally.
As I said in my opening statement, I am positioned for dividends, and have most in drips, adding shares quarterly to what is left in the portfolio.
Maybe my age is starting to take a toll on my investing perspective.
Now, my dad, he was different. Up until he died at 86, he was an investor in "for the long haul.
Me, not so much anymore.

If a stock hits my fancy, I will probably dip my toes into it, but when stocks are acting as zany as they are now, I will have trouble holding a stock for the long term anymore.

Then again, look at the markets today. Everyone was up, based on bailout agreements coming in Europe and even QE here in the states, driving more countries further into debt, with the USA leading the way.....

[Value Buy]

Jun 15, 2012 9:40:08 GMT -5 The Virginian said:

I've tried to start a conversation on this in other threads but so far have not been successful.

Wouldn't your money be safer in stocks than in other forms of investments? Banks can go under , the Dollar can be de-valued, Gold can be declared illegal and confiscated, land can be nationalized - so why not just leave it in stocks? I realize companies can be nationalized or go bankrupt so yes that is risk but all things considered stocks can rebound from a plunge as long as the corporation stays in business. I think that those who left their money in stocks during the great depression, while it took a long time to recover, ended up doing extremely well over the long term. My personal goal is to preserve money for my kids so even if it takes 30 years they could potentially reap rewards from it. I see stocks as one of the best safe havens for money. Are my thoughts wrong?

Virginian, can you tell me where your threads are? I admit I do not spend enough time over here, but I would like to find them.
Thanks

Like I said, I have pared my holdings, down to a select few right now.
I have not forsaken the markets totally.
Just feel we have a very bumpy road the next two years and cannot afford waiting fifteen years to get back to where I currently am.....
I was always a long term holder, not afraid of holding over ten years or more, so let's just say I am changing my style.......
Most of us here survived the crash in the 80's and have survived the 2007-2008 meltdown.
I just do not see myself going three for three.

[tyfighter3]

I've never seen this much FEAR on the Boards as of late. The EU was bound to fail from the start because it wasn't put together right. What else is new? Where to put your money? Cash is KING and land. If your worried, go to cash and wait it out. Go Fishing, take a trip, smell the Roses along the way, meet your wife again and within a year you will know where things are going to stand. I defiantly know that there will be some sweet BUYS out there when the dust settles.

[beenherebefore]

I'm not invested long term in Stocks but am trading, going in and out, taking profits where I can. It's probably not the smartest move, but we're making money and I'm more comfortable with that than anything else at this time.

Not too worried about Greece this weekend, they're participating in free elections, so whatever the outcome, it will probably take a couple of weeks for transitions to occur.

Egypt is another story...

[The Virginian]

Value - We can continue this thread to discuss it if you don't mind.

WXYZ - On my part - There is no fear. What I'm trying to accomplish is to discuss options to take if (when) Europe collapses economically. I do think it will have effects on the US through several channels, The Fed (#1), Our banks exposures, Bond Funds and of course the unknown realm of derivatives.

I'm not suggesting any of us stop investing I'm trying to see how everyone thinks they should act if it happens. That is should we sell all stocks, stay put, sell 50%, Put money in US Treasuries, that sort of thing. I have stated many times it will not be the end of the world but if our discussion can help us and others ride out the storm then I believe it is something worthwhile discussing.

I credit discussions on the old board for helping me bail out of the market in 2007/8 before I lost too much. That strategy worked in my favor back then but will it be the right thing to do this time. Some might even think you should start buying during the crash.

Never hurts to be prepared mentally - but I don't think fear will help anyone.

[ModE98]

Cool minds seem to always deal with challenges and safely pass through the horns of a dilemma. Being prepared is the key to survival when ill-winds blow. If prepared, no need for worry, sleeplessness and ulcers.

[beenherebefore]

Well, the Fed pulled a Chubby Checker and the markets didn't react. I guess that was the expected statement. Lets all Twist Again Like We Did Last Summer.

[The Virginian]

[kadee79]

How about a different view but mine is still pretty much ag related and also pretty much within the US borders.
I see some big changes coming, not sure how fast at this point but big ag (commercial) is going to fall flat on their faces. The farmers have farmed the soils instead of the plants and now are farming the chemicals they are applying. It won't hold up!

I'm not sure how the change will take place or how fast it will change, but it will HAVE to change or we will end up with world wide famine....like nothing the world has seen before.
Some places are already starting the changes by not allowing GMO'd crops, labeling laws that include if contents are GMO'd and the growing consumer demand for organic foods.
Commercial processors are going to have to change too...like Kraft foods, General Mills, Del Monte....big processors. There is already much to-do about the lining in our canned foods and the addition of corn sweeteners in nearly everything processed on the grocery store shelves.

So with all of these things going to have to change...I see some major problems with what most of us might consider the good old stand-by stocks.
Europe is involved in this too as some of those countries have banned GMOs...both crops & products. That will limit the US commercial farmer's market....which will reflect on chemical companies, seed companies, equipment companies, etc.

And I haven't even touched on the farm debt and farm welfare...aka farm bill before Congress now....in committee, I think.
And how will the banks survive that? And then include the student loan mess??

[The Virginian]

I agree - We try to hire college kids to work here but they don't want to work, they live off their college loans for four years! I worked the whole time I was in college, it was tuff that I admit, but ...... I didn't owe anyone a dime when I finished. Today's youth are a bunch of lazy bums (with a few exceptions)!

[beenherebefore]

I worked many part time jobs while in college, paid back the student loans with interest, on time.

[beenherebefore]

What will happen tomorrow, in light of Moody's downgrading of all but one major American bank?

[uncle23]

............

i worked full-time while in night time college full time...16 hrs

[blackliver]

Funny how that work's. Work hard, live with in your means, invest wisely and you end up with something. Kinda sounds like capitalism, neat idea.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jun 21, 2012 20:43:12 GMT -5 blackliver said:

Funny how that work's. Work hard, live with in your means, invest wisely and you end up with something. Kinda sounds like capitalism, neat idea.

Where do I sign up? ;D Oh ya, WE are the free world.

[beenherebefore]

Ok, admittedly I don't know a lot about how bond markets work but where is the harm in the big bank Moody downgrades? They can still borrow money cheap from the Fed. What am I missing?

[Trongersoll]

Student Loans? Never had one, I enlisted in the AF and got Uncle Sam to foot my bill.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jun 21, 2012 10:16:43 GMT -5 kadee79 said:

How about a different view but mine is still pretty much ag related and also pretty much within the US borders.
I see some big changes coming, not sure how fast at this point but big ag (commercial) is going to fall flat on their faces. The farmers have farmed the soils instead of the plants and now are farming the chemicals they are applying. It won't hold up!

I'm not sure how the change will take place or how fast it will change, but it will HAVE to change or we will end up with world wide famine....like nothing the world has seen before.
Some places are already starting the changes by not allowing GMO'd crops, labeling laws that include if contents are GMO'd and the growing consumer demand for organic foods.
Commercial processors are going to have to change too...like Kraft foods, General Mills, Del Monte....big processors. There is already much to-do about the lining in our canned foods and the addition of corn sweeteners in nearly everything processed on the grocery store shelves.

So with all of these things going to have to change...I see some major problems with what most of us might consider the good old stand-by stocks.
Europe is involved in this too as some of those countries have banned GMOs...both crops & products. That will limit the US commercial farmer's market....which will reflect on chemical companies, seed companies, equipment companies, etc.

And I haven't even touched on the farm debt and farm welfare...aka farm bill before Congress now....in committee, I think.
And how will the banks survive that? And then include the student loan mess??

I agree with what you're saying about farming and chemicals Kadee. I wanted to wait for a few things to happen before I made this statement, but the RIO summit provided the direction that I thought it would. It's all in the trends.

In the early 90's my Grandpa was against Roundup big time. As time went on he knew he was right because a few wells ended poisoned. These days my Auntie and Uncle have gone organic, all applications are 100% natural based and the soil has to be tested.

One thing that I have noticed is that Bill Gates and others have been promoting sustainable farming around the world and BIG pharma and BIG ag have moved to using all natural products as the base for their new studies. When you NEED profits, you NEED happy, health and profitable customers. WE (the people) WIN!!

Global network for organic farming research announced at Rio+20
www.trust.org/alertnet/news/global-network-for-organic-farming-research-announced-at-rio20

Senate OKs Merkley Organic Farming Bill
www.ktvz.com/news/31210253/detail.html

Organic and conventional crops coexisting<---- Until Urban farms take off, then "conventional crops are done( old Chemicals that is)
kmaland.com/03977_ORGANIC_AND_CONVENTIOANL_CROPS_COEXISTING_131513.asp

Farm to table, Part 2: Organic practices grow
www.wickedlocal.com/concord/news/x425595348/Farm-to-table-Part-2-Organic-practices-grow#axzz1ykPlNCTf

Report: Organic farming still growing at rapid pace
www.kcchronicle.com/2012/06/20/report-organic-farming-still-growing-at-rapid-pace/a2jf9kp/

[kadee79]

Aham, yes, organic farming to growing at a much faster rate than any had expected it to due mainly to more people becoming informed about what all is in their foods & how they are processed.

Rodale did a side/by/side 30 yr. farm study/comparrison...guess which won?

www.rodaleinstitute.org/files/FSTbookletFINAL.pdf

some additional articles here...

rodaleinstitute.org/search/node/farming+systems+trial

[Value Buy]

Well, after today, I feel like my decision to pare back was correct.
Soros says it could all come apart the weekend.
Greece PM says he is unable to fly for 45 days due to eye surgery convient, don'tcha think) and the Greek Finance Minister resigns due to health issues before he can actually take the position.
Spain only wants a 100 billion Euros or so to tide them over.
Yep, the economic meltdown is coming fast and furious.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Just make sure to buy back in if the world doesn't end, then you will be really happy that you pared back a bit VB.

Buy on the dips, hold on the rips!

Jun 25, 2012 16:04:29 GMT -5 kadee79 said:

Aham, yes, organic farming to growing at a much faster rate than any had expected it to due mainly to more people becoming informed about what all is in their foods & how they are processed.

Rodale did a side/by/side 30 yr. farm study/comparrison...guess which won?

www.rodaleinstitute.org/files/FSTbookletFINAL.pdf

some additional articles here...

rodaleinstitute.org/search/node/farming+systems+trial

That's exactly it mam'! Just like with smokes. That's the positive here. There is still toxins in the soil of the Montreal river from the late 1800's It was a TERRIBLE place... But it cleaned up and will continue to clean up as we treat it better.

There is nothing saying that you can't be a capitalist and work in balance with the Earth. We wouldn't be where we are today if it wasn't for everything the Earth provided. That's how you know we can still make it.

Power the Planet with what God Provided..

[Driftr]

Jun 25, 2012 20:23:35 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Well, after today, I feel like my decision to pare back was correct.
Soros says it could all come apart the weekend.
Greece PM says he is unable to fly for 45 days due to eye surgery convient, don'tcha think) and the Greek Finance Minister resigns due to health issues before he can actually take the position.
Spain only wants a 100 billion Euros or so to tide them over.Yep, the economic meltdown is coming fast and furious.

RE Spain. I think they want that 100B to flow straight from one of the European agencies direct to their banks so the Spanish Govt isn't on the hook for it. Smart move IMO. It'll be interesting to see who ends up holding that receivable and what happens when they inevitably have to write it off.