The current state of the stock markets

[The Virginian]

I read an estimate of the real need for Spain is more like 400-450 Billion. I think the 100 Billion is just to get whoever helps them, in the door, and obligated so there is no backing out.

[Deleted]

Jun 21, 2012 11:42:07 GMT -5 The Virginian said:

I agree - We try to hire college kids to work here but they don't want to work, they live off their college loans for four years! I worked the whole time I was in college, it was tuff that I admit, but ...... I didn't owe anyone a dime when I finished. Today's youth are a bunch of lazy bums (with a few exceptions)!

[beenherebefore]

New member Ezzie, Welcome!

[Value Buy]

This week we find out a really large European bank has been playing games with the Libor rate affecting interest rates around the world.
Still no idea how large of a black hole JPM is actually facing.
Now we wait and see if Europe actually agrees on anything Friday.
I doubt it.
The Supreme Court acknowledges Obama and the Democrats have and CAN tax the middle class into oblivion with the healthcare bill.
It just gets better and better.

[Value Buy]

I still feel very queasy about the markets.
There is no way the European Union solved their problems today, and yet our markets were way up.
After the crap Barclays has been caught doing with the Libor, once again proving nothing is what it seems to be, I still feel safe scaling back. Like I previously stated this economy feels different to me this time, and I do not have the luxury of waiting 5 or 10 years to get back to even.
Still sticking with some dividend paying stocks, reinvesting dividends that I feel will continue paying dividends.
Good luck to all.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jun 29, 2012 8:45:44 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

The current state of the stock markets is just fine. If someone is reasonable in their investing they will do well over their life time. NONE of the current boogie-men above, JP Morgan, the EU or health care will make any difference to a reasonable long term investor.

I can NOT and DO NOT fault Values move to cash since he has to do what is right for himself. But for others, WATCH OUT FOR THE DOOM&GLOOM WHIPSAW. It is very easy to get sucked in by the internet blog conspiracy end of the world bull shit.

You see that’s the thing with all this conspiracy stuff Mr. Z there is some truth in it and that’s why it sounds right. But it’s only half truths, as some like to say. It’s like a kid that has a BIG lie, eventually it has to come out because of time. That’s the interesting thing about all of this; I have laid out a pretty detail account of the last 2000 yrs over the last year and a half, and have been relating it into current event for close to 3 yrs now. So all this conspiracy stuff will actually be the best thing for us because it really will get the truth out there; just not the prison planet version that they keep spewing and I bought into when I was in high school..

I don’t blame ya for feeling the pressure from the dark side, the socialists have done an amazing job at using our freedom of press against us. It’s crazy how it’s evolved over the last eight years or so here. It’s going to be especially hard over the next few years here as thing continue to get sorted out and the market stays erratic. There is a 70% chance that we are going to have another PANDEMIC scare in 2013 to go with the US debt wall.

None of this changes the fundamentals that I see because I was never counting on a boom, and I am NOT counting on one for a very long time since the govt debt level is where it is at. The fact is we are relying on countries that have to elevate slaves to fill that spending. It will happen; it’s just going to take a long time. That’s why I say buy on the dips, hold on the rips! 12,100 was still the low from the middle of June, would have been a great time to put some cash to work long term.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It basically is a cult Mr. Z. It's steeped in Religion because it's designed to attack your beliefs and spirit. They know they can use revelations(religion) as a huge base for it and attack finance and business. The truth comes in the fact that our govt omits things from us, and that our numbers have always been based on stats. You could probably argue that the govt is lying about UI numbers when times are booming I'm sure. Human nature says we don't have to because there are jobs everywhere, not just some jobs that you have to work for, and at.

One of the biggest aspect of this Prison Planet crap is that the guys that run the IMF, and the FED are all Occult worshipers and this is where their hatred and desire to enslave man kind comes from. Religion again, right? They say that it's all about MONEY and getting the Oil. There is NO WAY that the war in the middle east is about oil. Certain aspects of what has gone over the last 100 yrs has been about commodities in general no doubt. But if you look at the history of the Mid East it is about so much more than that.

Which goes to my point about the truth in all of this. The Wars right now go back to JC and that's just the way it is; God Blessed America!

Onward and upward working in balance with the earth!


We need the World Bank, the IMF, all the big foundations, and all the governments to admit that, for 30 years, we all blew it, including me when I was president. We were wrong to believe that food was like some other product in international trade, and we all have to go back to a more responsible and sustainable form of agriculture.
—Former U.S. president Bill Clinton, Speech at United Nations World Food Day, October 16, 2008[69]

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Monetary_Fund

[Deleted]

Jun 27, 2012 18:12:42 GMT -5 beenherebefore said:

New member Ezzie, Welcome!

Thank you! I probably won't say much on this forum. You are all WAY more knowledgeable than I am, so I'm in listen and learn mode.

ETA: My personal philosophy during these difficult times is just to hold firm and not be tempted to bail out.

[Trongersoll]

Jul 2, 2012 11:41:50 GMT -5 @ezzie said:

Jun 27, 2012 18:12:42 GMT -5 beenherebefore said:

New member Ezzie, Welcome!

Thank you! I probably won't say much on this forum. You are all WAY more knowledgeable than I am, so I'm in listen and learn mode.

just don't be afraid to ask questions.

[Deleted]

Ezzie - In Investing not asking questions can be way worse than if you do.
If you ask you may get an answer you don't want to hear, but it can save you from a costly mistake.
If you have a question but don't ask, you can potentially make a costly mistake.

We are al here becasue we seek to try and constantly learn. One can never be an "Expert" at investing, as one can never learn everything about every aspect of investing.
Investing is a Constant evolution of Learning.

Welcome to IBB - Welcome to Investing.

[Value Buy]

I brought this article over from the P&M board from a thread started by djlungrot.
Lot's of good data on why this recovery is "different " from past recoveries, although it deals primarily with the consumer rather than our idiotic Government here and everywhere around Europe.
It is a good read.

seekingalpha.com/article/294847-weakest-recovery-since-great-depression-in-charts

[Value Buy]

from the article:

What policy and monetary makers fail to grasp is that this time really is different. Typically it’s the cyclical sectors of the economy such as business inventories, auto production, etc. that lead to the variability of the economy and produce expansions and contractions. However, this time around the main driving force is a broken consumer credit cycle. Rather than leveraging up on debt like they have during every recovery since the Great Depression, the U.S. consumer has reached maximum credit saturation and instead is deleveraging and reducing overall debt levels. This has not happened since the Great Depression and the sooner Washington figures this out the better as policies to stimulate consumption such as tax breaks and more transfer payments aren’t going to do the trick. Overall debt levels must come back down further to more normal levels relative to economic activity.


Add on the insanity shown by the USA and other European countries attitude of we can eat our cake and have everything else too, it is truly a different economic morass this time

[ModE98]

VB, could not agree more.

[Value Buy]

Well, so far, I am wrong.
Have to say though, the few stocks I held on to, have stayed the course.
In a few weeks or so, if Europe actually does something, I might get back in.
Slowly.

[safeharbor37]

I'm not really an 'investor', but do buy and sell stocks, mutual funds, etc. a little. I'm also already retired so don't have a big income. I say that because I've found that, generally, we get really bad advice on these message boards. The biggest mistake I've seen is the exaggeration of the current economic conditions.
I remember the "Great Depression," and I can assure you that this is no "Great Depression." A little deflation maybe, but not much. Go to the grocery store [if you can find one] and look for 5 cent loaves of bread ~ good luck.
The real problem is going to be inflation. The money I have isn't going to be worth what it is today or was yesterday. Therefore, if I go to cash [I'm about 50% liquid now] I will effectively lose money. I watched housing prices quadruple during the Carter Administration. Houses bought for $15,000 in the sixties and early seventies brought $65,000+ in the late seventies, early eighties ~ then came the Savings and Loan crisis and housing stabilized for a few years ~ BUT NEVER WENT BACK DOWN! Some will tell you that that is not the technical definition of inflation, but it might as well be.
Deficits result in debts which the government will pay by encouraging inflation ~ paying expensive debts with cheap money. It happens every time and it will this time. Neither we nor the EU [or China or India] are going broke, but some of our citizens will ~ due to the devaluation of money saved during a lifetime of productive work.
The trick is to be light on your feet, respond to conditions without panicking and always remember that "This too shall pass." [Be it good or bad]
~ and to the degree possible, buy low and sell high.

[BeenThere...DoneThat...]

Aug 2, 2012 10:51:14 GMT -5 safeharbor37 said:

I'm not really an 'investor', but do buy and sell stocks, mutual funds, etc. a little. I'm also already retired so don't have a big income. I say that because I've found that, generally, we get really bad advice on these message boards. The biggest mistake I've seen is the exaggeration of the current economic conditions.
I remember the "Great Depression," and I can assure you that this is no "Great Depression." A little deflation maybe, but not much. Go to the grocery store [if you can find one] and look for 5 cent loaves of bread ~ good luck.
The real problem is going to be inflation. The money I have isn't going to be worth what it is today or was yesterday. Therefore, if I go to cash [I'm about 50% liquid now] I will effectively lose money. I watched housing prices quadruple during the Carter Administration. Houses bought for $15,000 in the sixties and early seventies brought $65,000+ in the late seventies, early eighties ~ then came the Savings and Loan crisis and housing stabilized for a few years ~ BUT NEVER WENT BACK DOWN! Some will tell you that that is not the technical definition of inflation, but it might as well be.
Deficits result in debts which the government will pay by encouraging inflation ~ paying expensive debts with cheap money. It happens every time and it will this time. Neither we nor the EU [or China or India] are going broke, but some of our citizens will ~ due to the devaluation of money saved during a lifetime of productive work.
The trick is to be light on your feet, respond to conditions without panicking and always remember that "This too shall pass." [Be it good or bad]
~ and to the degree possible, buy low and sell high.

[Deleted]

I say that because I've found that, generally, we get really bad advice on these message boards.

We think while this does hold water - it is more or less because the Media blasts folks all day about how this or that is so.

Add that to the fact that many of the Investors that are really long in the tooth are slowly backing out.

And Add in that those that are around to a point have a "why should I say anything" POV or are of the mindset that "The Youngsters need to learn by taking the hits"
(Not meaning WXYZ Or MOD, Or a few others)

So when some info that is really good and useful does pop up - Either no one pays it any mind or they jump on the person and rip the idea to shreds for anyone of a thousand reasons that have been pumped by the media.

For example SAFE you say Inflation is the real issue - We agree and have been saying that for near a year, not that anyone has paid any mind and we have gotten chided on a couple of occasions for the POV.

To be blunt - There is Good Info around Message Boards, However it is a Bitch to find. And that is because of all the Clutter caused by all the Doom and Gloom.

If You were around on the Old MSN Boards and saw what we were saying you would know that we told folks In Dec 2008, Jan 2009 that it was time to start looking to buy, the Bottom was getting really close (WXYZ and MOD know this) - But many, Many folks gave us all sorts of reasons why we were wrong and Chided us for even saying it..
But now Everyone knows that March 9th 2009 was the Bottom of the First leg of what we are still gong through...
It was a good thought, had a decent solid reasoning behind it - but no one wanted to hear it.

But then, when folks get into a "Oh Poor me, Whoa is me, I am Doomed" mindset they put on Blinders and follow what is easy and that is the stuff that confirms they a doomed..
Same goes to the opposite extreme...

Folks like MOD and WXYZ can tell you with conviction - Set emotion aside and think Long Term You and your Wallet will be Better off for it..
But then With as long as they have been in the Markets, they have seen many things that would make folks now adays light their hair on fire and start doing a rain dance while Proclaiming "We are all going to die".

Oh yeah, wait that IS what we are seeing now....

[ModE98]

I never give advice, just post some ideas and what I am doing. Nothing specifically recommended. Have suggested long term quality stocks for years, because it works. But, I do trade quite often too. Think it best to separate the good stuff being accumulated over the years well separated from the trading stuff. I set aside 15% for play on the wild side. (I have no heirs to think about).

AND BE WARNED... STAY AWAY FROM THE CHINA SMALL CAPS/RTOs (and most others too).... it is a wild gamble (luckily, I can afford to roll the dice and do a bit of gambling). China government policy varies and can make or break a small busness over there). Got to be on your toes... I got caught flat-footed on several and had some bad write-offs. Hard to get information much of the time and a number turned out to be frauds. So I have some reasons for the warning.

[ModE98]

Have to admit I can be irrational at times. For the last few years have stopped listening to the street noise on the market channels, it can be very distracting and screw up one's rational thinking. At least, wxyz, you have the discipline to stick to your guns. That's why you get the good results.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Aug 2, 2012 10:51:14 GMT -5 safeharbor37 said:

I'm not really an 'investor', but do buy and sell stocks, mutual funds, etc. a little. I'm also already retired so don't have a big income. I say that because I've found that, generally, we get really bad advice on these message boards. The biggest mistake I've seen is the exaggeration of the current economic conditions.
I remember the "Great Depression," and I can assure you that this is no "Great Depression." A little deflation maybe, but not much. Go to the grocery store [if you can find one] and look for 5 cent loaves of bread ~ good luck.
The real problem is going to be inflation. The money I have isn't going to be worth what it is today or was yesterday. Therefore, if I go to cash [I'm about 50% liquid now] I will effectively lose money. I watched housing prices quadruple during the Carter Administration. Houses bought for $15,000 in the sixties and early seventies brought $65,000+ in the late seventies, early eighties ~ then came the Savings and Loan crisis and housing stabilized for a few years ~ BUT NEVER WENT BACK DOWN! Some will tell you that that is not the technical definition of inflation, but it might as well be.
Deficits result in debts which the government will pay by encouraging inflation ~ paying expensive debts with cheap money. It happens every time and it will this time. Neither we nor the EU [or China or India] are going broke, but some of our citizens will ~ due to the devaluation of money saved during a lifetime of productive work.
The trick is to be light on your feet, respond to conditions without panicking and always remember that "This too shall pass." [Be it good or bad]
~ and to the degree possible, buy low and sell high.

The nice thing about this time around is that unlike the massive money printing in the 70's that had to be absorbed by the US economy mostly, there is a global economy to suck up the money this time.

The other nice thing is that Govt deficits are in a place where we have to move to balanced budgets and 10% Tier 1 capital in the banks to restore confidence in the markets overall. No boom, just a swoosh; and slow steady growth is the best way to a good foundation.

[safeharbor37]

www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/EW5IdwltaAc?rel=0
www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/EW5IdwltaAc?rel=0

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Yes sir, a few of us have been chatting about this in this thread..

THE DEBT WALL 2013: And Beyond
notmsnmoney.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=perspectives&action=display&thread=20044

[Value Buy]

Looks like I was caught up in irattional non-exhuberance.
Stocks have remained the place to be.
Might start getting back in next week.
August is a hard month to judge, with all the Wall Street vacations to the Hamptons right now.

[Driftr]

I'd personally wait until after September. There is a distinct vibe I'm getting from several of the folks being interviewed on Bloomberg in the morning that there will be a pull back at some point this summer or early fall year. That pull back will be the base from which we get to new current year highs. It's doubtful that will stop me from using the spare cash I have in my wife's and my IRAs this month, but if I had a substantial portion of my savings in cash and was considering a re-entry, I would wait until at least 10/1/12.

I am in no way a financial advisor though. Just trying to pass along the sentiment I am feeling from those on the boob tube. And they might just be talking things down to help them get some shorts to pay off for all I know...

[ModE98]

Gee, driftr, you have the same "feeling" about late August & September too.
Something's gonna happen. I'm inclined to perhaps wait until after the election to get a new feel for direction. To each, their own, eh?

[Deleted]

If Romney wins, you will likely see a rally heading into year end

If not, it will be more of a flight to mega cap dividend stocks that we have been seeing

There is a lot of cash on the sidelines, waiting for a good chance to jump in

All they need is a good reason to believe we are finally turning the corner

[clarkrl2]

This is a real forecast made by people who's business is to make this kind of forecast. www.cnbc.com/id/48751072

[mox]

We are doing okay overall.

[clarkrl2]

When you click on the mox handle you will see she activated her account today at 9:21am and already had 120 posts by 6:55 pm.

[Value Buy]

Silver and gold have moved upward.
Stocks looked good until this week, when they muddled along with no movement either way, until the last two days.
Europe is still the key to our markets right now.
It is as if our Presidential election has no bearing on the markets right now, even if our choices are exact opposites.
Either that, or the market has already determined the November election, and Obama has four more years.