The current state of the stock markets

[ModE98]

VB, I hope your suspicions come true.... my remaining - CGA, CMFO and TPA have a LONG way to go to get me close to breaking even.
Do not blame you for being gun shy. It has been a hard three years. To see my group to rise a few dollars in the next 2-3 years would be great (should I even be lucky enough to live long enough to see it). With so many other stocks to choose from, why screw around in China.?

[Value Buy]

Today we are up 150 points today, based on (I assume) an upcoming friendly Fed report.
Could be a sixth consequitive 100 point move in the Dow.

Even my utility is enjoying a revival in price this week!

[Value Buy]

Sept 9, 2012 11:51:33 GMT -5 2kids10horses said:

I'm late posting in this thread, I haven't read the whole thing.

But there are lots and lots of people who are saying that they're never going to invest in the martket again. That there's no way we will ever see the growth we had back in the 80s and 90s.

That's music to my ears! You HAVE to be a contrarian to be a successful investor. If the general public is bullish, you know it's near a top. If the general public is bearish, back up the truck!

I'm kinda thinking that gold may be topping... all the "We buy gold" stores are everywhere, with sidewalk sign spinners, billboards, cars emblazed with "got gold?". It reminds me of how I used to see "I buy houses" signs everywhere.

So why are the markets rising? I think it's in antipation of more Fed easing.

Please note the date of this response. September of last year.
Great call!
In fact, if one goes back and look at the responses posted to my original "the sky is falling", premise here, there were many well thought out responses, that with hindsight, were correct.

I am about 85% back in the market, with mainly all blue chips, which is where I usually stay.
Thanks for the responses, and hopefully, the markets continue onward and upward.
Yes, I missed some really good gains, but still felt, I made the right decision for me at the time.

Should have thought about what my father told me when he was in his mid eighties, and listened to him.

"I am in for the long-term"........
It was good advice then and is so true today.
 

[Value Buy]

I was able to only fill $5,000 in silver 1 oz bars below $20 an oz.
Avg cost of $19.82

Ford is looking good for me. Their quarterly announcement today was very positive.
Sold 1,500 shares of a tax free bond fund yesterday, due to deteriating share prices.
My utility, Nisource, dropped due to potential interest rate increases, has recovered some of the share price it recently suffered from rising interest rates unlike the bond fund.
The two mutual funds I have owned very long term are way up this year.
Feeling real good about the markets now, so I am thinking of getting back into GE anticipating some good growth, although I wish Jeff Immelt was gone.
Also picked up 300 shares of X, US Steel yesterday. Looking for a price of $24 this fall, and will get out.
I think we have seen the bottom in this Industrial.

[Value Buy]

Well, it has been awhile on this thread.
Euro is getting a little pricey-$1.378 to the dollar. Good for our exports, bad for American tourists
The Dow is 60 points from a record high from this summer, S&P500 is setting records a couple of times a week, NASDAQ is at new yearly numbers, but still down from it's bubble years.

Industrial stocks are showing new life.
GE
JCI
MASCO
and so many others are showing positive numbers
Utilities are still strong, regardless of quantative easing on the horizon.
On the negative side, anything  connected with mining commodities are soft to down, as is the US Steel and Alcoa which is strange with housing and car industry being strong......
I have picked up some GE and X recently, but Alcoa is a pass-it just seems to sit there.
I anticipate an up market in November and December regardless of the cluster **** in Congress and spending limit coming due again in December.

I am atwitter over twitter-gotta have some. Hope I get about 500 shares.

[Value Buy]

Sold my 300 shares of X yesterday above my $24 price target. Should have pulled the trigger at $24, but got greedy, and it played out for me......
Thank you Goldman Sachs for the upgrade yesterday!

Still sitting on Ford. I cannot figure out whether to sit on it long term...

I want to pick up more GE, but think I will see where twitter winds up coming out at.

[Value Buy]

Strange market today.
Dow another record close, up 128 points to 15,746
S&P 500 up 7.52 points
Nasdaq down 7.92 points

Only stock showing a decline in my portfolio today was Walgreens.

Waiting for the Twitter initial pricing. Looks like north of $25, maybe to $27
Since all stock is going to investment firms rather than public, it will be interesting to see where it trades tomorrow.
I was willing to go for it at $25 to $26, but will not chase it.
Saw an interesting discussion on CNBC today, and some professionals are saying wait til next year on this one due to lock ups of key personnel
holding stock until then when they can sell.
And the fact this company is still losing millions of dollars, rather than making it, maybe I would be better off not purchasing right now.
Still not sure what I will do.

[Value Buy]

Twitter opening trade price now signaled at $42 to $46

I am out of the running.
Too rich for me now.

[Value Buy]

Opens at $45.10
Up 73% from the $26 price originally stated yesterday.
Currently trading $47.12 right now.

[Ombud]

TWTR limit order in. I had affirmed a COTP but, as you well know, not everyone was allocated shares. Hope I don't miss out on SQUARE too

[Value Buy]

Square will be a big one.

[Value Buy]

Another record close for the Dow.
15,761

Unfortunately the S&P 500 did not close on a record high.

Twitter drifted downward today on a couple of downgrades 

Employment numbers, up 204,000 jobs, but participation number dropped by a little over 700,000
Did that many baby boomers retire?

[Value Buy]

Another record close for the Dow and this time S&P500 also closed at a record high.
Market was choppy today and down all morning.
Business channels are saying it looks like we are at a market top and could see a downward move this month.

I do not think so. And I expect December to be good too.
Too many Hedge funds are going to have to window dress the portfolio due to their not matching the Dow and S&P this year.

Remember last December when everyone was selling to beat the increase in capital gains taxes in January?
We will see a lot more capital gains taxes being paid this year due to big gains for many investors who want to lock in gains at these levels, but I feel there will be as many buyers, so the market should not drop off.

[Deleted]

The Mechanics of the markets look as though they are working. Behavioral Economics is getting a good workout in response to the Media Cycles.

Basically looks like a bump, pause, mild consolidation, sideways, dip/pop, ETC. Repeat, Repeat, Repeat..

Media Warbles bad something, Doom this or that, Market Pulls back, then Some folks pile in and fill the hole..

Interesting though it looks and feels very calculated.. Thus, doesn't seem "toppy" I.O.O. ..

But then, remember We are supposed to be the Idiots here...

[Value Buy]

Nasdaq is now over 4,000

Dow around 16,100

S&P 500 1,815

Oil around 92.30

Life is good.

[Value Buy]

December is turning into a very interesting month.

The stock markets are flat to falling, except the Nasdaq.

Metal complex is soft, but seems to have leveled out.

Oil complex looks like it will bring inflation back at the gas pumps.

We get cold weather in the Plains and natural gas futures take off. So much for cheap natural gas to pilot our growing automobile and truck fleets as was the prevailing thought a month ago.

Will the stock market stabilize next week, or even start going up?

Jobs report this week should give us an idea.

Right now, good news seem to hurt stocks.

Six months ago, bad news helped stocks.

Will the Fed ease on bond purchases, raising interest rates?

The feeling is, when they do, stocks will falter.

If the Fed does ease or taper, if you prefer, it means the economy is getting stronger, which is good news.

Are the big funds just selling some winners to book profits?

I do not know.

I am staying in the stock market.

Basically 90% in stocks, 5% bonds, 5% cash.

I think after the first of the year, I might look at Peabody, and some mining stocks.

Do not know what I would sell to do it at this point.

[Value Buy]

Dow is struggling today to stay positive right now. Nasdaq down some today.

We have seen the Santa Claus rally this week.

There have been some really strong increases across all stock indexes this year.

Hopefully, we see window dressing on a short week next week to close out the year.

Now, have to figure to sell some winners in January, and rebalance the portfolio, or just let it ride for awhile.

[Value Buy]

I am looking to invest in Newmont mining Corp in January this year.

One of the big losers in 2013, and I think it will rebound in 2014

I am amazed the Utility index closed higher for the month with rising interest rates occurring, although it did not close on a record high.

Guess I will be holding my utility stock for a while longer as it sis still trading near the high for the year.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 31, 2013 17:00:50 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

I am looking to invest in Newmont mining Corp in January this year.

One of the big losers in 2013, and I think it will rebound in 2014

I am amazed the Utility index closed higher for the month with rising interest rates occurring, although it did not close on a record high.

Guess I will be holding my utility stock for a while longer as it sis still trading near the high for the year.

if you like mines, i would suggest SLW.  they are playing the royalty game, which is higher leveraging and lower risk than the mines themselves.  RGLD is the other big player, but is a much weaker value.

[Value Buy]

Crazy week in the markets this week, especially today. Some triple witching tradeing late today pulled us back.

Utilities and banking institutions were red hot out of the gate this morning, taking my portfolio to a new all time high, and piddled it away all afternoon.

Nisource and JPM were still positive on the day as well as J&J for me.

Chevron and Walgreens dragged my portfolio closer to even.

Still the S&P 500 AND Dow are showing some signs of life, and if the economy does show some improvement, from a drab economy due to weather the last two months, we could be seeing some good gains this spring.

[The Virginian]

I wonder what happened. I left early came back this evening and a good day had turn South. Yeah JNJ did great today!

[ModE98]

VB:  "Still the S&P 500 AND Dow are showing some signs of life, and if the economy does show some improvement, from a drab economy due to weather the last two months, we could be seeing some good gains this spring."  Agree, providing Russia and Putin can behave.  Let's hope so.

[Value Buy]

Mar 21, 2014 18:33:10 GMT -5 ModE98 said:

VB:  "Still the S&P 500 AND Dow are showing some signs of life, and if the economy does show some improvement, from a drab economy due to weather the last two months, we could be seeing some good gains this spring."  Agree, providing Russia and Putin can behave.  Let's hope so.

I know we are not to being politics into this board, but does anyone really think Obama will back up his threats?

Putin certainly is not worried.

This is their area to p**s around in.

Not ours.

Putin believes this, and Obama will not do anything.

Obama cannot/will not protect our southern border. Why would he bother protecting borders of an area half way around the world that said they wanted to be part of Russia?

[Value Buy]

Well the market has been unable to determine which way it wants to go this week.

Looks like momentum stocks are being churned this week, and might be temporarily falling out of favor by the funds.

No one seems to know what direction stocks are headed, and what the new favored sector might be

Utilities look like they are "safe" for awhile yet, due to the Fed basically announcing even with tapering, interest rates will remain low for another year at a minimum.

Gold seems to have topped out temporarily.

With the super cold winter and no spring here in the Midwest yet, I could see the grain complex, especially corn, going upward.

The ground is still frozen, and corn planting will have to wait for the ground temperature to get to around 50 degrees, before farmers plant it. In some areas, that may be too late to get it in, and might see some switching to acreage to soybeans this year. 

[Ombud]

Plus California's drought. Brentwood corn & Delta rice are the only 2 that might be okay. The valley will be under producing as will next year's wine grapes

[Value Buy]

Mar 28, 2014 9:24:20 GMT -5 Ombud said:

Plus California's drought. Brentwood corn & Delta rice are the only 2 that might be okay. The valley will be under producing as will next year's wine grapes

"Brentwood corn"

Is that an area in California  for crops?

Do not remember that term.

Know of the community of Brentwood-UCLA

I always thought the grape crops were under drip irrigation, although old fashion rain is always better for them

[Ombud]

Vast amount of corn is grown in Brentwood (the Delta city, not the LA neighborhood). No drip watering systems & minimal wells. Vinters are pulling up vines as they cannot all be kept alive. It will impact white wine in 2-3 yrs, red wine in 3-7 yrs

[ModE98]

The market has turned quite "risky" of late. The current problem with Russia is not good and could get much worse, which could send stocks lower if it does. Let us hope the markets do not do any "swan dive" as the NATO and Russian situation grows in the next few weeks. This could be the beginning of an extended new "Cold War" period.  Am beginning to plan accordingly (just in case). 

Just being cautious in the face of current events.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Apr 15, 2014 11:52:31 GMT -5 ModE98 said:

The market has turned quite "risky" of late. The current problem with Russia is not good and could get much worse, which could send stocks lower if it does. Let us hope the markets do not do any "swan dive" as the NATO and Russian situation grows in the next few weeks. This could be the beginning of an extended new "Cold War" period.  Am beginning to plan accordingly (just in case). 

Just being cautious in the face of current events.

I am with you 110%, sir. IMO, Central Asia is about to become a hotspot, along with rising nationalism across Europe, especially Eastern Europe.(ties directly into what you are saying about Russia and NATO) The Mid East is out of hand, did you see militants have control of the Euphrates damn? Plus China's real estate market is coming apart at the seems.

China has eyes on Russia's natural resources, and Japan wants to open an offensive against China, once again. China will need their 600-700 million people for an army, more than likely.

The icing on the cake, we are apparently 4 mutations away from having a real problem with the flu. Sure glade I live in one of the two countries that will rebuilt this global economy, again.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Exactly Mr. Z., buy when it's red!! You know what they say, third times a charm.