The current state of the stock markets

[Driftr]

Aug 24, 2012 9:19:25 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

It is as if our Presidential election has no bearing on the markets right now, even if our choices are exact opposites.
Either that, or the market has already determined the November election, and Obama has four more years.

Or the market has determined that A and B are the same shit in a different suit.

[The Virginian]

When you click on the mox handle you will see she activated her account today at 9:21am and already had 120 posts by 6:55 pm.

Yeah, they are all nonsensical posts!

[Value Buy]

Europe is still playing games with Spain and Italy, saying they have to commit to concessions, or they get cut out. Period.
Wall Street bought it hook line and sinker today
Just keep pushing it down the road..........
Our markets are not even worried about who will be elected in November.
I just do not get it.

[Driftr]

FDX & INTC have each lowered their Q3 revenue forecasts. Outliers or first of many? Makes no difference to me & my strategy. Thought I'd share with anyone trying to time the next 10%+ correction that seems to be looming larger IMO.

[ModE98]

Quite frankly, am a bit confounded by the relative strength of the stock market in view of the apparent weakness in our economy. Perhaps I am missing something in my view? It would seem that about a 10-20% correction would be quite in order.... market seems overvalued to me. Yet, there must be something "big money" sees in anticipating a coming recovery in the next 12-24 months. Yet, if mutual fund shareholders would suddenly begin to panic, the whole picture could turn ugly in short order. Maybe my "foresight" has deserted me in old age. I am lost in market "translation". Oh well, what else is not new? Argh!

[The Virginian]

I agree MOD but it seems QE3 is on its way and behind the scenes has been massive inflation ( in some areas) so that has devalued the dollar. The way I see it is we are only at about Dow 10,000 in 2008 dollars.

[The Virginian]

also maybe the markets are hedging their bets on the Presidential election.

If Romney wins, you will likely see a rally heading into year end

If not, it will be more of a flight to mega cap dividend stocks that we have been seeing

There is a lot of cash on the sidelines, waiting for a good chance to jump in

All they need is a good reason to believe we are finally turning the corner

So if Obama wins us dividend Stock holders will fare better? Hopefully a Romney win will result in an overall rally as you stated - that way no matter what dividend stocks are winners, a good case for owning them.

[Value Buy]

Right now I am being killed by lowering the stock porfolio like I did.
OUCH!

Although my utility and cvx and xom are doing fine......

[2kids10horses]

I'm late posting in this thread, I haven't read the whole thing.

But there are lots and lots of people who are saying that they're never going to invest in the martket again. That there's no way we will ever see the growth we had back in the 80s and 90s.

That's music to my ears! You HAVE to be a contrarian to be a successful investor. If the general public is bullish, you know it's near a top. If the general public is bearish, back up the truck!

I'm kinda thinking that gold may be topping... all the "We buy gold" stores are everywhere, with sidewalk sign spinners, billboards, cars emblazed with "got gold?". It reminds me of how I used to see "I buy houses" signs everywhere.

So why are the markets rising? I think it's in antipation of more Fed easing.

[ModE98]

"So why are the markets rising? I think it's in antipation of more Fed easing"
Music to current REIT holders....as long as rates stay low, collect those huge dividends.

[Deleted]

So why are the markets rising?

We think it is because of the Mechanics of the Markets. Which by the way are not something that folks can actually see fairly clearly most of the time - Yet the Current situation, which is a result of what began in late 2007, spiraled near out of control throughout 2008, and began to try and resolve in March 2009 - Is allowing those who look a rare glimpse of at the Mechanics of the Markets.

Now interestingly it seems that most of the time the Mechanics of the Markets are completely opposite of the Technicals and Fundamentals.

For example in early 2009 the Fundamentals & Technicals - well they weren't good, but they showed some signs of life --- But at that same time the Mechanics of the Markets pointed to things being much worse..

From a Purely Mechanical Standpoint the Markets should have gone lower than they did at the March 2009 Bottom of around 6,250 DJIA (Mechanically the Bottom was indicated to be "True" at DJIA 4,800 - 5,250)..
Yet, The Fundamental and Technical Picture looked better - so as folks started to wonder if things were getting too ridiculous, it became a matter of Statistical Probability - IE: How long could folks hold off snapping things up at Fire Sale Prices...

Well, we Know the Answer to that - Not long.. As such the DJIA bottomed around 6,250 In Early March 2009..

So what about now? Well, the Mechanics of the Market Paint an Interesting Picture near as we can tell.
The Markets have a Need to "Bake" things in, they also have a need to compensate for events not yet seen, but suspected.
This has happened before on numerous occasions.

By what the Mechanics show DJIA 12,950 - 13,250 is FAIR VALUATION. But there is the Overhung Bond Market, and Lack of Savings Impetus (No Interest, very little Interest - Due to FED Policy and actions)..
So when the Bond Market implodes (Not if, when) - where will the Money go to Make returns ? Not Savings, No return there.. Equities - Specifically we think anything that Pays a Dividend, since the "good" - "Solid" dividend trades are crowded the Money will flow to anything that pays a Dividend, without concern for any problems that might be indicated in a particular Security.

This IOO will set the stage for a Corrective Pullback. That Pull Back IOO will be prompted by Actions From the FED - Specifically a Rate Increase, whether or not Inflation is Indicated as an Issue..
Reasoning - Moral Hazard & Systemic Risk..
The Systemic Risk Being that the Markets Get so far ahead that it sets the Stage for the Same types of Actions that were at the heart of the 2007 through 2009 Crash and have resulted in the current conditions ---
The Moral Hazard Being that The Same Folks who whined and begged for bailouts come back to the table with hat in hand using - "but we just did what we could, and you didn't say it was wrong" (Like they did, because Well Regulators and the FED did a piss poor job in Oversight - which could have prevented this whole mess in the first place).

Right Now IOO it would be far too easy to get into a Position WORSE than things were in late 2007 through Early 2009 -- Because --
1) It is far too easy for Companies to Float Tons of Debt at Insanely Lower Interest Rates..
&
2) The Amount of Cash that a lot of Companies are Hoarding, puts them in a very strong Position to Bully the Government..
Which is not a good thing given the rather Weak Position the FED is in Due to it's Policy and Actions...

[Value Buy]

Helicoptor Ben has propelled the markets forward today, making my decision to pull back stock holdings this summer an even worse decision.......

[Deleted]

The run up has been great

I am looking to "maybe" take a few profits off the table

But i dont see this ending just yet......the greed is kicking in (which can be a very bad thing)

[Value Buy]

Oh, woe is me.
I just finishing putting my old holdings back into my portfolio holding sheet and see what I have NOT left on the Table.
Color me Stupid Value Buy

[Deleted]

VB - Don't paint yourself in that light. Every Investor or Trader ends up on occasion reacting in a knee jerk fashion, emotions get the better of them. Once this happens it is really hard not to vaccilate to the other side of the spectrum.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sept 13, 2012 16:18:11 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

NO. NOT stupid.

You went with your feeling and analysis on a short term move. Some times you are right and some times wrong. Same for everyone else on trying to call a short term move. NO WHINING. Move on. Either reinvest or stick to your opinion and ride it out. Things could be very different in a few weeks or months, especially after the election if Obama wins. If I was you I would NOT reinvest till after the election.

MOVE ON, nothing you can do about the past.

2013 is shaping up to be one HELL of a year.

[Driftr]

Sept 13, 2012 23:56:58 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Sept 13, 2012 16:18:11 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

NO. NOT stupid.

You went with your feeling and analysis on a short term move. Some times you are right and some times wrong. Same for everyone else on trying to call a short term move. NO WHINING. Move on. Either reinvest or stick to your opinion and ride it out. Things could be very different in a few weeks or months, especially after the election if Obama wins. If I was you I would NOT reinvest till after the election.

MOVE ON, nothing you can do about the past.

2013 is shaping up to be one HELL of a year.

Agreed. Figuring out who it;s going to be Hell for is the tough call.

I'll bet on savers taking it in the shorts until Ben's credit card breaks. Then all bets are off.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Savers will get the lowest returns, however that is usually the case anyway. I don't think the FED is going to break, it will be the politicians that continue to cause the issues, for now. I believe I have a pretty good idea who is gong to have it pretty damn rough next year.. For starters...

There is a REALLY chance the Middle East is going to collapse in on itself and you're going to see what's going on in Mali happen in wide swaths across the Middle East. Obama has just asked Egypt to take a side, Egypt and Turkey have told Iran they have to choose on Syria. Azerbaijan has Israeli planes and tanks in their bases pointed at Iran. Turkey wants IN the EU badly, and the Saudis want all that international money to keep flowing.

But ontop of that you have China's interest in the region to consider as well. The Islamic extremists have been causing problems for them on their own boarder, and in Africa. I say in Africa because China is investing heavily in the future of that county.

Keep in mind the Muslims that want to move forward are the ones that want money and have access to armies and are working with Israel. Oh and have the backing of the Chinese really when it comes right down to it.

China is also really getting into it with Japan now, and Russia is could probably get pretty intense starting next year. The Congo has an outbreak of Ebola right now, and there is a terrible famine going on in North Korea and parts of India because of lack of crops. Of course here the corn crop doesn't look like its going to be as bad as once thought, most likely because we have irrigation and there is a bumper crop up here in Canada this year. I think you get the idea of who I think is going to be in hell and who is going to start to realize just how good we really have it.

[Value Buy]

We are well into the new year now, and we have temporarily withstood the fiscal cliff.
As previously noted I made a mistake getting out of the stock market.
Time to get back in the action.
Plotting some entrance points on
JCI
GE
CVS
PG
SO
CLF
MRK

My "might take a flyer on" stock portfolio prospects?
ZNGA
DELL
MU
DNDN
Will wait until after we have Congress address the automatic spending cut issue, if they cannot come to a decision on spending cuts.
Cannot believe European Union held together without some major damage happening to their markets, especially with their economy so flat.

[Driftr]

Jan 7, 2013 13:11:11 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

YES, now that you are out it might be a good idea to wait another month or two till the remaining issues are settled.

You are more optimistic than I am if you think anything will be truly settled by 2/28/13. The only question I have is how much longer it can be delayed. I think that's what we find out on or about 2/22.

Edit: Cash still accumulating. No definite date on when I plan to get it working.

[Driftr]

Turns out the date I decided to get it working was today. Details in the MT dividend thread for anyone interested.

[Value Buy]

Darn!
Still waiting on the Congress to do the right thing.
Dow hit record territory this morning.
My powder is still dry.

I might have an accident and blow up my bunker I have been hiding in, investmentally speaking......
At least my utility and oil companies are doing fine as are my Ira's and 401-k.

[2kids10horses]

VB,

You are experiencing the main fallacy that most who try to time the Market have.  When to get back in.

If you think the market is going to continue to rise, the sooner you get back in the better.  Buy back in and set a stop loss to prevent a large loss.  If the market goes up, raise your stop as it goes up.

[Value Buy]

Mar 5, 2013 21:31:00 GMT -5 2kids10horses said:

VB,

You are experiencing the main fallacy that most who try to time the Market have.  When to get back in.

If you think the market is going to continue to rise, the sooner you get back in the better.  Buy back in and set a stop loss to prevent a large loss.  If the market goes up, raise your stop as it goes up.

I was not trying to time the market. per se, Just thought we would have a major market pullback. I thought we were seeing 2008 all over again, and I rode that puppy all the way down, thinking it would never go as low as it did. I did not want to make that mistake again.
I have started making new purchases this month, and unfortunately missed some big profits. Sticking with proven dividend payers for the most part.
Still worried about Europe and what it will do to our markets, but it is obvious as long as we continue to print money, our markets will continue to rise.

[ModE98]

China April PMI disappoints. Chinese flash HSBC PMI dropped to 50.5 in April from 51.6 in March, missing expectations by a full point. "New export orders contracted after a temporary rebound in March, suggesting external demand for China's exporters remains weak," says HSBC. "Weaker overall demand has also started to weigh on employment in the manufacturing sector." The disappointing reading comes not long after Q1 GDP growth slowed to 7.7%, and it helped send Asian stocks lower.

Contraction in German factory activity deepens. Flash German manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 47.9 in April from 49 in March, while the services print dropped to 49.2 vs 50.9. "The latest figures suggest any rebound in GDP" in Q1 "could be rather short-lived," says Markit. Still, French PMI data improved while eurozone-wide readings were mixed, with the overall picture still grim.

Source: Seeking Alpha: "Wall Street Breakfast"

NOTE: It seems things continue to go from "weak to weaker" within the global economies. This, if it continues, probably will have its effect upon the U.S. economy sometime later this year. Leading to the question: When will the "correction" set in, as it may have a hard effect on our stock markets as time drags on.
Or, will we hold up as the "safe haven" as investors around the globe seek the strongest place to put their money. In that case, perhaps nothing dire will happen here.

[Value Buy]

Apr 23, 2013 10:09:11 GMT -5 ModE98 said:

China April PMI disappoints. Chinese flash HSBC PMI dropped to 50.5 in April from 51.6 in March, missing expectations by a full point. "New export orders contracted after a temporary rebound in March, suggesting external demand for China's exporters remains weak," says HSBC. "Weaker overall demand has also started to weigh on employment in the manufacturing sector." The disappointing reading comes not long after Q1 GDP growth slowed to 7.7%, and it helped send Asian stocks lower.

Contraction in German factory activity deepens. Flash German manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 47.9 in April from 49 in March, while the services print dropped to 49.2 vs 50.9. "The latest figures suggest any rebound in GDP" in Q1 "could be rather short-lived," says Markit. Still, French PMI data improved while eurozone-wide readings were mixed, with the overall picture still grim.

Source: Seeking Alpha: "Wall Street Breakfast"

NOTE: It seems things continue to go from "weak to weaker" within the global economies. This, if it continues, probably will have its effect upon the U.S. economy sometime later this year. Leading to the question: When will the "correction" set in, as it may have a hard effect on our stock markets as time drags on.
Or, will we hold up as the "safe haven" as investors around the globe seek the strongest place to put their money. In that case, perhaps nothing dire will happen here.

And the Dow was up 150 points on all this disappointing news.

[ModE98]

Investors around the world seeking a safe haven, nowhere else to go, nowhere else to hide. U.S. markets are about as safe as it gets these days. Perhaps the bad news of global decline is good news for our markets. But, after that, someday the piper must be paid.... when is the 64 dollar question.

[Value Buy]

I have put some money back to work on a couple of individual stocks, but most I placed in a couple of mutual funds for awhile
Split between Vanguard and Fidelity.
Low fees, and usually a fair dividend, especially in positive markets.
The stocks I sold have been a mistake for me-they are all well up from when I sold, but that's spilled milk.

I have $20,000 sitting waiting for something.
If silver falls below $20, I might buy some. No futures, just one oz bars, so I can be like the ole cartoon character Scrooge McDuck.

[Value Buy]

Dow and S&P500  both hit new all time highs today. Transportation index also at new high, which for some investors, confirms Dow can go up from here.
Nasdaq was flat, due to technology stocks going nowhere today.
Japan, Germany, and France are having good stock index increases now.
Looks like the world economy is going up from here.

[Value Buy]

If the European markets are stabilizing, might be time to look a Chinese stocks now.
Unfortunately, due to time and again, poor accounting standards by these companies, make me gun shy there

I bought into Ford a few weeks ago. This will never be a grandslam stock, but I see good things for them the next few years.