Less than 15 hours to go and we shall......

[djAdvocate]

Aug 27, 2012 13:22:24 GMT -5 @jarhead1976 said:

Prediction
Increase in 2.1 trillion in debt. 2 million more added to unemployed . Social rebalancing begins. O'bumble wins.

i doubt the unemployment figure, but i think you are way off on the debt. to the underside, unfortunately. i think we top out at around $20T.

[Value Buy]

Down to the magic number of "69" days to go!
Chris Christy and Anne Romney hit it out of the park last night, if anyone here even cares.

[djAdvocate]

Aug 29, 2012 8:33:53 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Down to the magic number of "69" days to go!
Chris Christy and Anne Romney hit it out of the park last night, if anyone here even cares.

trailer park?

[cme1201]

Aug 29, 2012 10:07:48 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Aug 29, 2012 8:33:53 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Down to the magic number of "69" days to go!
Chris Christy and Anne Romney hit it out of the park last night, if anyone here even cares.

trailer park?

Hold up there slick. We have been hearing that the GOP is the party of the rich, he wouldn't step into a trailer park.

[djAdvocate]

Aug 29, 2012 10:12:54 GMT -5 cme1201 said:

Aug 29, 2012 10:07:48 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

trailer park?

Hold up there slick. We have been hearing that the GOP is the party of the rich, he wouldn't step into a trailer park.

yeah, i guess you can't hit one out unless you are in.

[djAdvocate]

by the way, yesterday marked the end of a relatively strong consensus among pollsters. of the (15) most recent polls, three show Romney +1%, and the balance show Obama with a lead of 1-6%. in other words, almost ALL are within polling error. Obama is up 2-3% right now, and there is surprisingly little movement in the polls, as if people have already made up their mind. meanwhile, the Electoral count is very solidly in Obama's favor: he leads by over 100 EV, excluding the near-ties. if we eliminate the near ties, he leads by 50 EV. Romney has a tough road to hoe. he basically has to win every swing state, and take at least one state that is clearly Obama's to win this election.

let the games begin.

[weltschmerz]

Anne Romney hit it out of the park last night, if anyone here even cares.
------------------
She keeps going on and on about her health. I found myself thinking "How nice for you that you're so wealthy. The average Joe or Joanne would never be able to get insurance to treat their cancer, with a pre-existing condition like Multiple Sclerosis."

[Steady As She Goes]

Well ... I see everyone is in agreement here ...

So nice to see such a unified people ...

My work is done here ...

[Value Buy]

DJ is going to be so disappointed this fall

[b2r]

Could not help but notice this as a camera panned the arena.

[djAdvocate]

Aug 30, 2012 9:25:00 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

DJ is going to be so disappointed this fall

why would i be disappointed? he is, after all, my party's candidate. and he was the candidate that i have predicted since the beginning would win the nomination. and the one that would compete best with Obama.

seriously, tho- i have benefitted hugely from the neoconservative government that has been in power for 30+ years, now. it has made me a millionaire by allowing me to keep more of what i earn. i am certainly grateful for small things.

on the other hand, i think it has been a terrible stretch for America, and there is little hope that it is going to get any better over the next (4) years. i am absolutely confident that if Romney is elected, it will mean more money for me, which i will use to set up a vacation home which eventually will become a retirement home for me; money that is NOT used to pay down the national debt. you know, just like Romney?

in short, yes, i am guaranteed to be disappointed, VB, NO MATTER WHO IS ELECTED. i can't believe you (or anyone really) is actually gleeful about the prospect of Romney driving the supply side nails into the coffin, but i guess it just shows how selfish we have all become.

[djAdvocate]

i am putting the odds of Romney winning at 5:2 against. this is an adjustment from four weeks ago, when i had him at 2:1 against. don't like the Ryan pick.

carry on.

[deziloooooo]

Aug 30, 2012 23:35:06 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i am putting the odds of Romney winning at 5:2 against. this is an adjustment from four weeks ago, when i had him at 2:1 against. don't like the Ryan pick.

carry on.

I will be honest with you, watched absolutely none of the convention till last night and did not watch whole speech of the former Governor ..came in about 10:30 Eastern time...but got a lot of the gist of his talk from what I read in today's morning paper round ups..

A few things I had a little problem with...His mention of Russia, Putin..going to be hard nose with him..say no, not give him what he wants..

Whats with Russia and Putin as major problems for us with all our problems?

Cold war is long over..Russia's military, beyond their Nucs and delivery system..absolutely no comparison with ours..and no mater their bluster of modernizing and spending the $ ..when I see it I will believe it..

Seems some one is looking to pick a argument where there is none to speak of beyond annoyances and in International events..there are ALWAYS going to be annoyances , doesn't mean one has to have class A confrontations with them..what seems to get us into these problems we are in.

Same with China..going to go hard line with them?

So what does that mean?

Confrontational, military wise..? Trade wars..how is that going to help our economy? Tell them to stop buying our paper as investments? Think they have done that already..still holding lots of our debt..Do we really want them to start calling that in, selling off their investments..

Possible if they feel threatened they might just turn to Russia and see if the two could become a bit closer..China investing more there..better returns..need those resources..the oil, gas that Russia has in abundance..mmmm, now that could be a scary thought..

Iran..wants Obama to do what over what he has already done? What exactly is he asking? A state of war, blockade of..that is a declaration ofn war..arm Iranian insurgents , those against the government possible..start a insurrection..actively , arming these people or just get right to it..start the bombing, killing..[you bomb, people will die..innocents too] ..Is that what he is suggesting , saying.

We may have to do that, but once you start , do I have to tell you the fallout..not possible fall out..but the fallout. Iranians , many , might not love their governmen but don't think they are not as loyal and patriotic to their country and proud of their persian heritage..goes back a few thousand years and just recntly, as time is measured in historical terms, lost over a million of their young oprople in a war with Iraq. Would we have been able to tolerate those same type casualties..I wonder.

Obama is trying other means first..how can I or you fault hm for that. If any of you have served and at a time of hostilities and participated , I doubt if you would be wanting to rush into a armed conflict but it seems this candidate has no problem with that, and the BS of throwing Israel under the bus...such BS. He has fully supported and given in money and modern weapons to the State..that the leaders of the State aren't happy about being criticized for some of their practices..since when is Natanyahu a member of our Government..calling the shots of how we act toward them on all matters...that too is BS , the throwing under the bus and if a Pub was in office, I just wonder if we woul ahve been involved with the israelis already actively engaged in Iran and how would that help our economy or as we are seen in the world.

Then there was something about America believing in religion again..something along those lines..what does that mean..no longer the separation of the State and religion?.. Religion is gone from the USA ? Really? Give me a break already. Then all those moral things...since when has religion been gone in the States and why is the government getting involved in promoting what is not gone here ..reminds me of those tirades of Bush..those heavy biblical get together...what is with these pubs anyway..

Those are a few of the things that did stick out to me and PLEASE don't suggest that they are just little incee bitty little things..if mentioned in a nation wide acceptance speech..they are biggies and important to his supporters and if he wins will be on his agenda..and IMHO we are back again to the same BS we were before... meddling in things we have no right to be middling in from the stand point of the government..

Also being belligerent with other nations who we have disagreements with whereas the present POTUS has tried to accomplish the cooperation of these differences in a diplomatic way and so far, it seems to be working...

and ok another one..the cuts for the military are NOT to be done at all..not to be considered, military can do no wrong, needs every dime they can get, no redundancy? Who are our enemies ..who are we arming up for...?

Just a couple, as I said , of things stuck out for me..

[djAdvocate]

Romney now has his best polling numbers of the race. he is at a 46.1% average on poll.

the convention typically adds 1-10% to a candidate's numbers, so Romney will probably head higher for the next (30) days or so.
however, the democratic convention will do the same for Obama, so it may all wash out.

we shall see.

[vandalshandle]

I always enjoy listening to the republicans explain that the best way to get out of debt is to make the Bush tax cuts permanent...

[b2r]

;D

[Deleted]

Sept 1, 2012 14:13:33 GMT -5 vandalshandle said:

I always enjoy listening to the republicans explain that the best way to get out of debt is to make the Bush tax cuts permanent...

I’ve always had a grudging admiration for Bush Senior…I think he coined the phrase “voodoo economics”, or one of his speech writers did. They were on to something.

[usaone]

Bush Sr is the most under rated President of our time!!

The Republican party of today has been hijacked by people who do not have the best interest of the country first.

We should be ahead by 10 points.

[Deleted]

Is this some kind of beers on the wall game...yeah, we get it.

[Deleted]

Sept 1, 2012 15:14:52 GMT -5 Robert not Bobby said:

Sept 1, 2012 14:13:33 GMT -5 vandalshandle said:

I always enjoy listening to the republicans explain that the best way to get out of debt is to make the Bush tax cuts permanent...

I’ve always had a grudging admiration for Bush Senior…I think he coined the phrase “voodoo economics”, or one of his speech writers did. They were on to something.

I completely agree...there is a man who did his duty, didn't make a big fuss about it...and was sensible. Not sure about his kids though, not sure at all.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 1, 2012 14:19:08 GMT -5 b2r said:

;D

Biden is precisely right, of course.

[Value Buy]

The name of the game is to get to 270 Electoral votes.
Both candidates can make a good argument for the win based on the few states left in play.
Should be good fodder in Charlotte this week.

[Value Buy]

Good news!
Independents are slowly moving to Romney.
North Carolina despite holding the Democratic Convention, is sliding towards Romney also.

Looks like Virginia could go either way yet.

[djAdvocate]

the good news for Romney: he is now TIED with Obama on the national polls @46.8%; HIS BEST SHOWING OF THE ELECTION CYCLE. also, Obama's presidential approval rating is now at about -3, which is NOT GOOD for the Dems.

the bad news for Romney: he is still trailing in 9 out of 10 swing states, in the electoral college, and the oddsmakers are showing him at 3:2 to 3:1 underdog, his worst showing in weeks.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 5, 2012 13:02:48 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

According to Gallop, Romney also got NO bounce from his convention. That is bad news indeed for Romney.

Barring an always possible news event of some sort, that only leaves the debates as the sole remaining probable opportunity to shift many voters, according to the conventional wisdom. Great pick Ryan. Shored up the base, and no one else.

it is Gallup. and they are an outlier. Rasmussen is showing +6%. the polling average is 2-3%. but here is the more important factor:

conventions are used to "spot" candidates. they GENERALLY give them a large lead, which is then whittled away prior to election day. in Romney's case, being tied is...well, in a word, SHI-TAY. he really needs to get up 5-10% to have a good chance of winning, and he is nowhere near that.

the news gets even worse if you move to the swing states, which are, other than NC, ALL going for Obama at the moment. he will have to hope that there is something really disastrous that happens to Obama at this point, like some really bad job numbers or a major gaffe. but candidly, i think the latter is more likely on the GOP side. Obama doesn't really have to make any controversial statements to get attention. he is a sitting president.

in short, i think Romney is going to have to get lucky to win.

[djAdvocate]

oh, and one other thing- i agree with you about the pick, and i said so the day he made it. it was a very defensive move. Romney was more worried about losing his core constituency than extending his appeal to independents. it is one thing to do that when you are leading. it is quite another to do it when you are trailing.

for all his business saavy, he STILL sucks as a campaigner.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 5, 2012 13:36:09 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

OK, I did just look at the Gallup poll.

It will be curious to see if Obama gets any bounce from the Democratic Convention. The Michelle/ Clinton / Obama headline speeches should be an interesting 1, 2, 3 punch, and Clinton in particular might move a few people.

Going forward though, the unknown is still the unknown. I agree that Romney has more to fear from both lack of traction and possible gaffes, But I also think Obama has to worry that any possible October Surprise in the news cycle would probably be a negative one.

the incumbent generally gets about a 5% bounce from the convention. if that happens, Romney is going to be pretty clearly finished, barring any terrible economic data, or a collapse in Europe (aka "dramatic event").

if, however, everyone collectively yawns, and he gets no bounce (a distinct possibility. the polls have been quite stubborn this year), this could be a very tight election.

[deziloooooo]

Sept 5, 2012 14:11:10 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 5, 2012 13:36:09 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

OK, I did just look at the Gallup poll.

It will be curious to see if Obama gets any bounce from the Democratic Convention. The Michelle/ Clinton / Obama headline speeches should be an interesting 1, 2, 3 punch, and Clinton in particular might move a few people.

Going forward though, the unknown is still the unknown. I agree that Romney has more to fear from both lack of traction and possible gaffes, But I also think Obama has to worry that any possible October Surprise in the news cycle would probably be a negative one.

the incumbent generally gets about a 5% bounce from the convention. if that happens, Romney is going to be pretty clearly finished, barring any terrible economic data, or a collapse in Europe (aka "dramatic event").

if, however, everyone collectively yawns, and he gets no bounce (a distinct possibility. the polls have been quite stubborn this year), this could be a very tight election.

I believe it will be a tight election...

[djAdvocate]

Sept 5, 2012 15:59:31 GMT -5 deziloooooo said:

Sept 5, 2012 14:11:10 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

the incumbent generally gets about a 5% bounce from the convention. if that happens, Romney is going to be pretty clearly finished, barring any terrible economic data, or a collapse in Europe (aka "dramatic event").

if, however, everyone collectively yawns, and he gets no bounce (a distinct possibility. the polls have been quite stubborn this year), this could be a very tight election.

I believe it will be a tight election...

a lot of people think that. i think there is about a 10% chance that it will be a landslide. six months ago, i would have said nil.

[billisonboard]

Sept 5, 2012 17:56:46 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 5, 2012 15:59:31 GMT -5 deziloooooo said:

I believe it will be a tight election...

a lot of people think that. i think there is about a 10% chance that it will be a landslide. six months ago, i would have said nil.

Electoral College landslide?
Popular Vote landslide? What percentage would make the land slide?
Both?